亚洲午盘 — 2026-08-13

市场概览 #

周四亚洲盘面呈现罕见的"芯片独舞"行情: 韩国 KOSPI 单日暴涨逾 9%, 正式跨入技术性牛市, 日经225和台股 TAIEX 同步跳空走高逾4%, 三大市场的共同引擎是三星电子、SK海力士与台积电供应链在 AI 需求预期下的重新定价。与此同时, 港股小幅回落, A股温和收红, 而印度 SENSEX、澳洲 ASX200、印尼 JCI 等南亚与东南亚市场却逆势下跌, 显示这轮行情更像是一次集中在存储芯片与晶圆代工链条上的结构性重估, 而非全区域的普涨行情。地缘政治方面, 霍尔木兹海峡通行仍未完全恢复, 中美关税休战再获延长90天, 为市场提供了额外的确定性。

指数表现 #

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX jumped 4.01% to 46,000.77, adding back nearly all of the 4.65% single-day plunge the index suffered earlier this month. TSMC remains the dominant swing factor: the foundry giant’s August sales surged roughly 45% year-on-year on the back of AI accelerator demand, and its share price gains alone are capable of moving the entire index. Chip designers and packaging names such as MediaTek and ASE Technology are participating in the rebound, with several component stocks hitting daily up-limits. The index has now round-tripped through a nearly 60% first-half gain, a sharp correction, and a fast recovery, underscoring how concentrated Taiwan’s market structure has become around a handful of AI-supply-chain names.

台股加权指数上涨4.01%至46,000.77点, 几乎收复了本月早些时候单日暴跌4.65%的失地。台积电依然是主导指数走势的核心变量: 该公司8月营收同比大增约45%, 主要受益于AI加速器需求, 单靠台积电一只股票的涨跌就足以左右整个指数。联发科、日月光等设计与封测厂商同步反弹, 部分成分股一度涨停。台股上半年一度大涨近60%, 随后剧烈回调, 如今又快速反弹, 反映出台湾市场结构已高度集中在少数AI供应链龙头股上, 波动被显著放大。

韩国 #

South Korea’s Kospi surged as much as 9.21% intraday, putting the benchmark firmly into technical bull-market territory with a roughly 22% advance over the past ten trading sessions from its late-July low. Heavyweight memory chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, each up more than 5% at the open before extending gains, are driving the rally alongside an overnight AI-led advance on Wall Street. This is not an isolated spike: sidecar circuit breakers, both buy-side and sell-side, have been triggered on the Kospi roughly 43 times so far this year, already far exceeding the 26 activations seen during the entire 2008 global financial crisis, an average of one every 3.5 trading days. Today’s move looks consistent with a buy-side stabilization mechanism having kicked in given the scale and speed of the advance.

韩国综合指数KOSPI盘中一度暴涨9.21%, 正式确认技术性牛市, 相较7月底低点十个交易日内累计涨幅约22%。三星电子、SK海力士两大存储芯片龙头开盘即涨超5%后进一步走高, 是本轮行情的核心推手, 叠加隔夜华尔街AI股领涨大盘的外部提振。需要提醒的是, 这并非孤立的单日暴动: 今年以来KOSPI已触发约43次正副向"边车"稳定机制(buy-side/sell-side sidecar), 已远超2008年全球金融危机全年26次的纪录, 平均每3.5个交易日就触发一次, 说明韩股当前的日内波动率处于历史极端水平。今日涨幅之大, 大概率意味着买方稳定机制已被触发。

日本 #

Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 4.58% to 68,692.36, extending the region’s AI-driven advance after Wall Street closed just shy of a record high overnight on the back of stronger-than-expected tech earnings and a softer-than-feared US inflation print. Chip-adjacent names including SoftBank and memory supplier Kioxia are cited among the session’s biggest gainers, tracking the same Samsung/SK Hynix-led narrative playing out in Seoul. The yen weakened modestly against the dollar in tandem with the risk-on tone, which further supports exporter earnings.

日经225指数上涨4.58%至68,692.36点, 延续了本轮由AI驱动的区域性上涨。隔夜华尔街在科技股财报好于预期、美国通胀数据不及此前担忧的背景下收盘逼近历史高位, 为亚太市场提供了顺风。软银、铠侠等芯片链个股是本日涨幅居前的代表, 与首尔市场三星、SK海力士领涨的逻辑高度呼应。日元兑美元同步小幅走弱, 风险偏好回升进一步利好出口型企业的盈利前景。

香港 #

The Hang Seng Index edged down 0.83% to 25,440.17, a mild pullback after the index closed at 25,937 on Monday near its recent high. Analysts flagged a bearish MACD crossover and technical resistance near the 28,056 peak reached earlier in the cycle, suggesting the easiest phase of the 2026 China-equity rally may be pausing even as the year-end target of 28,300-30,800 remains intact. Southbound flows stayed constructive: mainland investors bought a combined roughly RMB 5.3 billion of Hong Kong shares via the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock connects today, suggesting domestic money continues to view HK-listed tech and financials as attractive on dips even as the index consolidates.

恒生指数小幅回落0.83%至25,440.17点, 此前周一收盘曾报25,937点, 逼近近期高点。技术面上MACD出现死叉信号, 且指数在此前触及的28,056点高位附近遇阻, 暗示2026年这波中国资产重估行情容易上涨的阶段可能告一段落, 但机构给出的年底28,300至30,800点目标区间尚未改变。南向资金仍偏积极: 今日沪港通、深港通合计南向净买入约53.1亿元人民币, 说明内地资金仍在逢低吸纳港股科技与金融板块, 并未因指数盘整而撤离。

中国 #

Mainland Chinese equities posted modest gains, with the CSI 300 up 0.58% to 4,690.92 and the Shanghai Composite adding 0.32% to 3,946.68, while the Shenzhen Component outperformed with a 1.09% rise to 14,414.43. The muted but positive tone contrasts with the sharper moves in Northeast Asian chip markets, consistent with A-shares’ more policy- and domestic-liquidity-driven character rather than direct exposure to the Samsung/TSMC-style AI hardware trade. Northbound Stock Connect flow data was not yet finalized at the time of this report, a common midday reporting lag; today’s price action nonetheless points to steady, unspectacular buying rather than the kind of momentum chase seen in Seoul or Taipei.

内地股市温和上涨, 沪深300上涨0.58%至4,690.92点, 上证综指上涨0.32%至3,946.68点, 深证成指表现相对更强, 上涨1.09%至14,414.43点。这种温和而非暴涨的走势, 与东北亚芯片市场的剧烈波动形成对比, 也符合A股更多由政策预期和境内流动性驱动、而非直接受益于三星/台积电式AI硬件叙事的市场特征。北向资金今日截至发稿数据尚未更新, 这属于午盘报告的常见数据滞后; 但从价格表现看, 内地资金呈现的是稳健买盘而非首尔、台北式的动能追涨。

其他亚太市场 #

与东北亚芯片牛市形成反差, 印度、澳洲、印尼等市场今日普遍走弱, 显示这轮行情的驱动力高度集中在半导体供应链, 而非区域性的风险偏好回升。

澳洲 ASX 200 今日下跌1.07%, 已是连续第三个交易日走弱, 市场正等待电讯、交通基建等权重股财报, 资源与防御板块的疲态压制了指数, 与铁矿石、能源等大宗商品定价的AI硬件敞口有限直接相关。印度 SENSEX 同步下跌0.87%, 在中美关税休战延长、外部风险偏好回升的背景下仍显滞涨, 反映外资对印度权益资产的配置节奏与东北亚芯片牛市并不同步, 更多受本土估值和资金流出等因素主导。新加坡、泰国等东南亚市场表现相对平稳, 呈现"旁观者"特征。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

今日沪股通、深股通北向净买入数据截至发稿时点尚未更新(显示为0), 属于午盘报告常见的数据源滞后, 建议关注收盘后完整数据。

南向资金 #

港股通(沪)南向净买入约29.5亿元人民币, 港股通(深)南向净买入约23.6亿元人民币, 合计约53.1亿元人民币, 显示内地资金在恒指小幅回调之际继续逢低布局港股。

汇率与宏观 #

黄金今日上涨2.05%, 在权益市场普遍走强、风险偏好回升的背景下依然获得资金追捧, 与霍尔木兹海峡局势尚未彻底解除的地缘风险溢价有关。韩元、台币兑美元同步走强, 与本国股市的强劲资金流入相互印证; 日元则小幅走弱, 符合日股上涨、套息交易重新活跃的组合。WTI原油在霍尔木兹海峡通行受限的背景下维持在83美元附近偏强运行。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

霍尔木兹海峡 / 伊朗局势 #

最新态势: The Strait of Hormuz remains only partially navigable. A June 17 US-Iran memorandum had promised a 60-day naval blockade removal and safe passage for commercial vessels, but fighting resumed in July and Iranian forces have since attacked vessels deemed “noncompliant” with Iranian routing demands. In early August the United States reimposed its own naval presence in response, and Tehran is now negotiating with Oman over a narrower safe-passage arrangement, while explicitly stating this does not mean fully reopening the waterway. Oil tankers have largely been unable to transit the Strait since the July escalation.

霍尔木兹海峡目前仍只能部分通航。6月17日美伊曾签署备忘录, 承诺60天内解除海军封锁并为商船提供安全通道, 但7月战事重启, 伊朗方面开始袭击被其认定"不合规"路线的商船。8月初美方为此重新在该海域部署海军力量, 德黑兰目前正与阿曼就更有限的安全通行安排进行谈判, 但明确表示这不等于全面重新开放海峡。自7月局势升级以来, 油轮基本无法正常通过该海峡。

关键时间节点: 关注伊朗与阿曼就"安全通行"细节的谈判结果, 以及美方海军部署是否进一步升级, 二者将决定原油运输成本能否在未来2-4周内回落。

中美关税 #

最新态势: On August 11, the White House announced a further 90-day pause on the previously threatened increase of the reciprocal tariff rate to 125%, keeping the existing 30% combined “fentanyl + reciprocal” tariff structure in place. Beijing’s commerce ministry has separately said the two sides have “agreed in principle” on a framework covering agricultural product tariff reductions and expanded two-way agricultural trade targets, though no final agreement has been signed.

美国政府8月11日宣布, 将此前威胁把对等关税上调至125%的计划再延长90天暂停执行, 现行30%的"芬太尼关税+对等关税"组合结构维持不变。中国商务部方面则表示, 双方已就农产品关税削减框架及双向农产品贸易扩大目标"原则上达成一致", 但尚未签署最终协议。

专家研判板块:

相对受益方向:

• 半导体/AI硬件供应链 (三星电子、SK海力士、台积电、MediaTek): 政策不确定性下降 + AI资本开支周期共振
• 农业出口链 (中国大豆、玉米加工企业; 美国农产品出口商): 关税削减框架若落地将直接受益
• 港股科技/金融 (南向资金持续净流入的标的): 中美关系阶段性缓和支撑估值修复
• 黄金及贵金属: 关税休战延长但地缘风险(霍尔木兹)未解, 避险需求仍在
• 东南亚制造业转移受益标的 (越南、印尼相关供应链): 关税不确定性期间的"去风险化"资本继续流入

需要回避方向:

• 高杠杆、高波动的韩国中小盘科技股: KOSPI日内波动率已处历史极端水平, 追高风险显著上升
• 依赖霍尔木兹海峡航运的航空、化工等高耗能行业: 运费与燃油成本压力短期难以缓解
• 对美出口敏感的传统制造业: 90天关税暂停到期后的不确定性仍未消除, 只是被推迟

情景分析 (未来2-4周关键节点):

1. 关税协议正式签署 (概率约35%): 农产品框架落地并扩展至更多品类, 港股/A股出口链与港股科技股有望进一步修复, 恒指有机会重新挑战28,000点一线
2. 90天暂停到期前维持现状、无新协议 (概率约45%): 市场延续当前"结构性行情", 资金继续集中在半导体/AI硬件, 其他板块表现分化
3. 霍尔木兹局势再度升级或关税谈判破裂 (概率约20%): 油价与黄金进一步走高, 风险资产(尤其是已大幅上涨的KOSPI、TAIEX)面临获利了结压力, 波动率放大

关键主题 #

• AI芯片牛市高度集中: KOSPI暴涨9.21%、TAIEX涨4.01%、日经涨4.58%, 三者共同引擎是三星、SK海力士、台积电的AI供应链重估, 而非区域性普涨
• KOSPI波动率已至历史极端水平: 今年以来"边车"稳定机制触发约43次, 超过2008年金融危机全年纪录, 追涨需警惕日内反转风险
• 南亚东南亚与澳洲逆势走弱: 印度、澳洲、印尼同日下跌, 显示这轮行情并非全区域风险偏好回升, 而是半导体主题的结构性行情
• 霍尔木兹海峡仍未完全解封: 伊朗与阿曼就有限通行方案谈判中, 油运、黄金、航空板块的分化逻辑仍将持续
• 中美关税暂停再延90天: 农产品框架原则性达成一致但未签署, 为风险资产提供阶段性确定性, 但到期不确定性只是被推迟

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。