亚洲午盘 — 2026-08-11

市场概览 #

上周五疲软的美国7月非农就业数据（新增仅2.2万人，远低于预期，失业率升至4.3%，为2021年10月以来最高）大幅推升联储9月降息预期，CME FedWatch 显示25个基点降息概率已升至九成以上。这股"坏消息就是好消息"的情绪周一延续到亚太时段：日经225、恒生指数、台湾加权指数集体走高，新加坡海峡时报指数、澳洲标普200指数同步刷新阶段高位。与此同时，伊朗与阿曼围绕霍尔木兹海峡通航方案的谈判仍未落地，伊朗坚持要求永久停战、解除制裁与经济补偿，黄金逼近历史高位，WTI原油同步走强，避险与再通胀交易同时发生。韩国市场早盘一度因海外芯片股走弱而承压，午盘已收复大部分跌幅。

指数表现 #

台湾 #

TAIEX extended gains to close up 0.98% at 45,050.06, tracking a broad AI and semiconductor-led rally across the region. TSMC remains the index’s dominant swing factor after its Q2 report topped guidance (revenue $40.2bn, gross margin 67.7%) and management lifted full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to “slightly above 40%” while raising capex to $18.75-20bn. Sell-side coverage remains overwhelmingly bullish, with an 18-buy, zero-sell consensus and price targets running well above the current NT-dollar equivalent. The New Taiwan dollar firmed modestly against the greenback (USD/TWD -0.51%) as the softer US jobs print weighed on the dollar broadly.

台湾加权指数收涨0.98%至45,050.06点，延续区域性AI与半导体主题的强势表现。台积电仍是牵动指数的核心变量：其二季度营收（400.2亿美元）、毛利率（67.7%）均超预期，管理层并将2026全年营收增速展望上调至"略高于40%"，资本支出指引提高至187.5亿至200亿美元区间。目前卖方一致给出18家买入、零家卖出的评级，目标价普遍显著高于现价。受美国就业数据走弱、美元指数走软影响，新台币兑美元同步走强0.51%。

韩国 #

The KOSPI opened lower by nearly 1% as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics tracked overnight weakness in US chip names, but the index clawed back losses through the session to trade up 0.42% at 6,385.92 by midday. The early-session drag reflected renewed concern about AI-capex fatigue after last month’s sharp correction, but Seoul’s announcement of a 5 trillion won special semiconductor fund to bolster supply-chain competitiveness helped stabilize sentiment. The won strengthened 0.99% against the dollar as broad-based dollar weakness following the weak US payrolls report offset some of the chip-sector jitters.

韩国综合指数(KOSPI)早盘一度因SK海力士、三星电子跟跌隔夜美股芯片股而下挫近1%，但午盘已收复大部分失地，报6,385.92点，上涨0.42%。早盘的拖累主要源于上月AI资本开支叙事大幅回调后市场对"AI疲劳"的担忧再度抬头，但韩国政府宣布设立5万亿韩元特别半导体基金以强化供应链竞争力，一定程度上稳定了情绪。受美国就业数据疲软、美元普遍走弱影响，韩元兑美元升值0.99%。

日本 #

Japanese markets are closed today for the Mountain Day holiday, so the Nikkei 225’s last print stands at Monday’s close of 66,970.22, up sharply on the session and marking one of its strongest single-day advances in weeks. Recruit Holdings, Sumitomo Metal Mining and Olympus led the gainers, while chip-linked names including Advantest, Tokyo Electron and Fujikura extended the AI-capex rally. The move followed Wall Street’s advance after the weak US jobs data reduced near-term Fed rate-hike risk, and Topix also advanced in tandem. With the market shut today, the size of Monday’s percentage gain should be read against a backdrop of elevated single-day volatility across regional indices this week; investors will look to Wednesday’s reopening for confirmation of whether the AI-led leadership holds.

日本市场因"山之日"假期休市，日经225指数最新收盘价定格在周一的66,970.22点，当日涨幅显著，为近数周表现最强的单日之一。领涨股包括瑞可利控股、住友金属矿山与奥林巴斯，芯片相关股如爱德万测试、东京电子、藤仓电线等延续AI资本开支主题的强势。此轮上涨紧随华尔街在美国就业数据疲软、降息预期升温后的反弹，东证指数同步走高。由于今日休市，本周区域指数普遍波动加大，投资者将关注周三复市后AI主题领涨格局能否延续。

香港 #

The Hang Seng Index rose 1.05% to 25,937.49, with technology and financial heavyweights leading the advance as sentiment tracked the broader regional risk-on mood following Friday’s weak US payrolls print. Tencent touched its highest level since April, up nearly 9% over the trailing month, while AI firm MiniMax jumped roughly 6.5% after joining the Stock Connect program, a move seen as widening the pool of mainland capital able to access Hong Kong-listed AI names. Softer Chinese CPI data (0.5% y/y in July, a six-month low) added to expectations that Beijing will keep policy accommodative, further supporting the tech-led rally.

恒生指数收涨1.05%至25,937.49点，科技与金融权重股领涨，市场情绪延续上周五美国就业数据疲软后的区域性风险偏好回升。腾讯股价触及4月以来新高，过去一个月累计涨幅近9%；AI企业MiniMax因纳入港股通标的池大涨约6.5%，市场解读为内地资金参与港股AI标的的渠道进一步拓宽。中国7月CPI同比增速降至0.5%，为六个月新低，也强化了市场对北京维持宽松政策取向的预期，为科技股行情提供额外支撑。

中国 #

Mainland benchmarks were more measured, with the CSI 300 up a modest 0.16% and the Shanghai Composite adding 0.67%, while the Shenzhen Component was roughly flat. Precious metals and rare-earth/tungsten names led sector gains at midday as domestic investors piggybacked on the global gold rally, while grid-equipment, AI-application and defense-related names also saw active trading. Combined turnover across the two exchanges topped RMB 1.5 trillion by midday, running below the prior session’s pace, consistent with a market still digesting July’s soft CPI print alongside expectations for further policy support rather than chasing a new catalyst.

内地股指表现相对克制，沪深300小幅收涨0.16%，上证综指涨0.67%，深证成指则基本走平。午盘盘面上有色金属、贵金属及钨等资源品板块领涨，国内资金跟随全球黄金上涨行情布局；电网设备、AI应用及军工概念亦交投活跃。两市午盘成交额突破1.5万亿元，较上一交易日同期有所缩量，显示市场仍在消化7月偏弱的CPI数据与政策宽松预期，尚未出现新的催化因素驱动增量资金入场。

其他亚太市场 #

数据来自 JSON 的 indices_ext 字段。新加坡表现最为突出，延续了自今年以来的连续新高走势；马来西亚、印尼、印度则小幅回落，越南数据当日暂缺。

新加坡海峡时报指数延续了今年以来罕见的连续七周新高走势，银行、工业与部分REITs板块是主要支撑，周一的强势进一步受到区域risk-on情绪和美元走弱的提振。澳洲标普200指数同步上涨1.18%，与黄金价格走高对当地矿业与贵金属权重股的提振直接相关。相比之下，印度SENSEX小幅回落0.51%，此前一度受美国对等关税不确定性拖累，市场仍在消化关税税率从25%阶段性下调至18%的过渡期影响；马来西亚、印尼等东南亚市场亦普遍承压，反映区域内资金在避险与追涨黄金/日股AI主题之间的再平衡。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

截至发稿，沪股通、深股通北向净买入数据尚未更新（显示为0），暂无法判断内地股市当日的外资/港资流入强度，需待收盘后数据修正。

南向资金 #

港股通（沪）南向净买入约19.9亿元人民币，港股通（深）南向净卖出约1.9亿元人民币，两项合计南向资金当日仍呈净流入态势，与恒生指数科技股走强、MiniMax纳入港股通标的池提振的资金面逻辑一致。

汇率与宏观 #

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

霍尔木兹海峡 / 伊朗战争 #

最新态势: Iran and Oman remain short of a final agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz despite Tehran’s foreign minister describing a deal as “very close” last week. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has hardened its position, demanding a permanent end to the war, removal of the US financial blockade and sanctions, and compensation before it will allow traffic to resume — while also seeking to retain long-term control of the waterway and charge tolls for passage. President Trump said over the weekend he is now “only semi-negotiating,” warning the strait “is going to be open very soon or they are going to get hit very hard” if Iran reneges. The strait has been effectively closed to shipping since the US-Israel campaign against Iran began in late February.

伊朗与阿曼围绕霍尔木兹海峡重新通航的最终协议仍未落地，尽管伊朗外长上周曾表示协议"非常接近"。伊朗最高国家安全委员会近期立场转趋强硬，要求以永久停战、解除美国金融封锁与制裁、获得经济补偿作为重开海峡的前提条件，同时寻求战后继续掌控该航道的过境管理权并收取通行费。特朗普总统周末表示目前处于"半谈判"状态，并警告若伊朗违背承诺，海峡"很快就会开放，否则伊朗将遭到重击"。自2月下旬美以对伊军事行动展开以来，霍尔木兹海峡事实上已对航运关闭。

受影响板块:

关键时间节点: 市场关注本周内伊朗与阿曼是否就"临时路线+分段管理"方案达成最终确认；若特朗普政府在补偿/停战条件上让步或强硬回应，均可能在数日内引发油价剧烈波动。

美国就业数据与联储降息路径 #

最新态势: July payrolls showed a net loss of 23,000 jobs against expectations for an 83,000 gain, with a combined 103,000 in downward revisions to May and June — pushing the unemployment rate to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021. The CME FedWatch tool now prices in roughly a 90% probability of a 25bp rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, a sharp reversal from earlier expectations that had priced in meaningful odds of a hold or even a hike.

7月非农就业数据意外净减少2.3万人，远低于市场预期的增加8.3万人，且5、6两月合计下修10.3万人，失业率升至4.3%，为2021年10月以来最高水平。CME FedWatch工具目前显示9月议息会议降息25个基点的概率已升至约九成，较此前市场一度押注"按兵不动甚至加息"的预期出现大幅逆转。

专家研判板块:

• 相对受益方向: 黄金/贵金属(避险+降息双重逻辑)、亚太高股息/REITs(利率下行受益)、成长型科技与半导体(融资成本下降)、新兴市场货币与股市(美元走弱)、消费电子出口链(需求预期改善)
• 需要回避方向: 强美元敏感型出口商(汇兑收益收窄)、短久期高息金融股(净息差承压)、依赖美元融资的高杠杆企业
• 情景分析 (针对9月FOMC决议):
  • 情景A(概率约60%): 降息25bp符合预期 — 市场可能"买预期卖事实"，短线获利了结，但中期利好亚太成长股与黄金
  • 情景B(概率约25%): 降息50bp超预期宽松 — 强化衰退担忧，避险资产(黄金、日元)进一步走强，风险资产短线承压后再修复
  • 情景C(概率约15%): 按兵不动或释放鹰派信号 — 触发全球风险资产回吐前期涨幅，美元、美债收益率反弹，亚太股市普遍承压

关键主题 #

• 降息预期主导风险偏好: 疲软的美国7月非农数据将9月降息概率推升至九成以上，成为本轮亚太股市普涨的核心驱动
• 金油同涨的罕见组合: 避险需求(霍尔木兹不确定性)与再通胀交易(降息预期+美元走弱)叠加，黄金逼近历史高位、WTI同步走强
• AI/半导体主题分化: 日本、台湾延续AI资本开支叙事强势，韩国则因隔夜美股芯片股走弱一度承压，午盘收复失地
• 霍尔木兹谈判僵局未解: 伊朗强硬立场令原油地缘溢价难以消退，本周谈判进展是最大变量
• 港股通/南向资金持续支持科技股: MiniMax纳入港股通标的池等制度性扩容，为恒生科技股提供增量资金逻辑

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。