亚洲午盘 — 2026-08-10

市场概览 #

周一亚洲市场普遍延续风险偏好回升，日经225大涨4.53%再创新高，台股TAIEX在7月底半导体抛售后的反弹中再进一步、大涨3.72%逼近今年上半年高点，韩股KOSPI温和上涨0.70%显示6,000-7,000区间内的整固仍在继续。与此同时，大宗商品同步走强：黄金暴涨3.55%至4,396.5美元/盎司刷新纪录区间，WTI原油劲升4.80%至78.83美元。股市、黄金、原油三者同涨的组合并不矛盾——美联储9月降息押注（市场定价约九成概率降息25个基点）同时提振了风险资产和黄金，而原油的独立走强则来自也门胡塞武装袭击沙特阿美吉赞炼油厂后，霍尔木兹海峡局势"谈判推进、袭击未止"的双轨拉扯。

指数表现 #

台湾 #

TAIEX rocketed 3.72% to 44,975.37, extending the powerful rebound that began August 1 with the index’s biggest-ever single-day points gain (up nearly 8%) after late-July’s China chip self-sufficiency scare had dragged the benchmark sharply lower. The index is now closing back in on its first-half 2026 peak near 46,125, once again led by TSMC and the broader AI supply chain as chip names regained footing. Optical communications stocks, which saw a wave of limit-up moves after Lumentum flagged tightening indium phosphide supply, remain a key swing factor for market breadth, alongside continued investment-trust buying that has offset foreign selling in recent sessions.

台股加权指数大涨3.72%至44,975.37点，延续8月1日以来的强劲反弹（当日创下史上最大单日点数涨幅，涨幅近8%），此前7月底"中国芯片自主化"担忧曾令大盘重挫。指数目前已逼近上半年46,125点的高点，台积电与AI供应链再度领涨。光通信板块因Lumentum示警磷化铟供应趋紧而出现涨停潮，是盘面广度的关键变量，投信持续买超也部分抵消了外资卖压。

韩国 #

KOSPI added a more modest 0.70% to 6,301.45, consolidating within the 6,000-7,000 range that local brokerages have flagged as the near-term battleground following July’s sharp correction that briefly pulled the index below 6,000 on the same China chip self-sufficiency fears hitting Taiwan. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix remain the swing factors — South Korea’s semiconductor exports were up nearly 200% year-on-year in June, underscoring how central the memory cycle is to the broader index. Foreign fund flows and the upcoming US CPI print are the watershed events local desks are watching for the next directional move.

韩股综合指数温和上涨0.70%至6,301.45点，继续在券商预测的6,000-7,000区间内整固。7月同样因"中国芯片自主化"担忧一度跌破6,000点。三星电子与SK海力士仍是决定盘面的核心变量，6月韩国半导体出口同比增幅接近200%，凸显存储周期对指数的支配力。外资资金流向与即将公布的美国CPI数据，是本地机构判断下一步方向的关键观察点。

日本 #

Nikkei 225 surged 4.53% to a fresh high of 66,856.50, tracking Wall Street’s AI-driven tech rally and extending Japan’s 2026 record run. A weaker yen (USD/JPY up 0.46% to 158.26) added a tailwind for exporters, while the broader AI optimism that has powered Japanese equities through most of the year showed no signs of fading. The gain puts the Nikkei’s year-to-date advance firmly in record territory, echoing the pattern of sharp single-day rallies (800+ point moves) seen repeatedly since January.

日经225大涨4.53%至66,856.50点再创新高，跟随华尔街AI科技股涨势，延续今年以来的纪录行情。日元走弱（美元/日元上涨0.46%至158.26）为出口股提供助力，贯穿全年的AI乐观情绪未见消退迹象。此次上涨延续了自1月以来反复出现的单日大涨（涨幅常达800点以上）的行情特征。

香港 #

Hong Kong’s most recent HSI close (Friday, August 7) showed a modest 0.54% gain to 25,668.03. The freshest same-day read comes from the H-shares-heavy HSCEI, which slipped 0.74% to 8,587.73 in Monday trading — a mild pullback that contrasts with the broader regional risk-on tone and warrants watching into the afternoon session. Southbound flows via both Stock Connect boards stayed net positive (see Capital Flows below), suggesting mainland demand for Hong Kong equities has not turned.

香港恒生指数最近一个可用收盘价（上周五，8月7日）为25,668.03点，涨0.54%。周一同日更新的恒生国企指数（H股权重更高）则小幅回落0.74%至8,587.73点，与区域整体风险偏好回升的基调略有背离，值得留意午后走势。港股通南向资金仍维持净流入（详见资金流向部分），显示内地资金对港股的需求尚未转向。

中国 #

A股三大指数（最近一个交易日，上周五8月7日）齐涨：沪深300上涨0.93%至4,694.44点，上证综指上涨1.02%至3,940.04点，深证成指涨幅最大，上涨1.42%至14,311.01点，成长风格相对占优。北向资金当日数据显示为零流入（推测为统计口径未更新，而非真实零成交），但南向资金（港股通）净买入约38.8亿港元（沪股通口径27.4亿+深股通口径11.4亿），与恒生系指数当日上涨方向一致。

The three mainland benchmarks (most recent session, Friday August 7) all advanced: CSI 300 up 0.93% to 4,694.44, Shanghai Composite up 1.02% to 3,940.04, and the growth-tilted Shenzhen Component outperforming with a 1.42% gain to 14,311.01. Northbound flow data printed at zero for the session (likely a reporting-lag artifact rather than genuinely flat volume), while southbound Stock Connect flows into Hong Kong stayed net positive at roughly HK$3.88 billion combined, consistent with the direction of Hong Kong’s own indices.

其他亚太市场 #

数据来自 indices_ext，覆盖印度/东南亚/澳洲等扩展亚太市场。越南 VN-Index 因数据源故障暂无可用数据。

ASX 200 was the standout among the “others” bucket, up 2.19% to 9,216.60 — a move that lines up neatly with the day’s gold and oil surge, given the index’s heavy weighting toward miners and energy producers. India’s SENSEX was the lone regional laggard, slipping 0.11% to 78,339.23, a divergence from the broader Asia-Pacific risk-on move that’s worth watching for follow-through given India’s typically lower correlation to the Taiwan/Korea semiconductor cycle.

亚太"其他市场"中，澳洲ASX 200表现最突出，大涨2.19%至9,216.60点——这与当日黄金、原油同步大涨高度吻合，因该指数矿业与能源股权重较高，直接受益于大宗商品上涨。印度SENSEX是区域内少见的下跌品种，小幅下跌0.11%至78,339.23点，与亚太整体风险偏好回升形成背离，其对台韩半导体周期的联动性本就较低，后续走势值得关注。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

沪股通、深股通当日净买入均报0.0亿元，涨跌家数比（沪股通999涨/615跌，深股通1020涨/801跌）显示A股内部广度实际偏正面，净流入数据为零更可能是统计更新滞后所致，而非真实成交为零。

南向资金 #

港股通（沪）净买入27.43亿港元，港股通（深）净买入11.42亿港元，合计净流入约38.85亿港元，涨跌家数比420涨/186跌，与恒生指数上一交易日上涨方向一致，显示内地资金对港股的配置意愿仍在。

汇率与宏观 #

黄金逼近历史高位区间，核心驱动是市场对9月FOMC降息（25个基点，市场概率定价约九成）的强烈预期叠加中东地缘风险的避险需求；10年期美债收益率小幅回落，与降息预期方向一致。原油单日近5%的涨幅则主要来自供给端风险溢价——尽管伊朗与阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡通航管理已接近达成协议，但胡塞武装袭击沙特阿美吉赞炼油厂的消息（8月9日）再度提醒市场，局势谈判进展与实际袭击并未同步降温。亚洲货币多数兑美元走强（韩元、新台币），反映区域风险偏好回升与资金流入迹象。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

霍尔木兹海峡危机 / 伊朗战争 (2026年2月28日爆发, 持续中) #

最新态势: 美国副总统万斯在福克斯新闻表态称，伊朗与阿曼已就霍尔木兹海峡通航管理"取得进展"，美方目标是"最大化海峡的石油天然气流出量"；但伊朗国家安全负责人同时列出了一系列要求美方满足的条件，作为海峡完全重新开放的前提。就在谈判取得进展的同时，也门胡塞武装（伊朗支持的代理武装）于8月9日宣称袭击了沙特阿美位于红海沿岸的吉赞炼油厂，显示地区局势的"谈判轨"与"冲突轨"仍在并行——这也是当天原油价格大涨近5%的直接背景。自2月28日危机爆发以来，已有至少17艘商船受损、2艘被扣押、12名船员伤亡或失踪。

Latest: US Vice President JD Vance said Iran and Oman have made progress on a deal to manage Strait of Hormuz shipping, with Washington aiming to “maximize the amount of oil and gas coming out” of the waterway. But Iran’s national security chief simultaneously issued a list of demands the US must meet before the strait fully reopens. Even as talks progress, Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed an August 9 attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery on the Red Sea coast — a reminder that the negotiation track and the conflict track are running in parallel, and the direct backdrop for oil’s near-5% jump today. Since the crisis began February 28, at least 17 merchant ships have been damaged, 2 captured, and 12 seafarers killed or missing.

受影响板块:

关键时间节点: 9月FOMC会议（市场定价约90%概率降息25个基点）；霍尔木兹海峡伊朗-阿曼协议若达成，预计将触发原油价格的快速重新定价。

情景分析:

• 情景A (约40%概率): 伊朗-阿曼协议短期内正式落地，海峡通航逐步恢复 → 原油价格明显回落，避险需求降温，风险资产延续上涨但黄金涨势放缓。
• 情景B (约40%概率): 谈判持续推进但胡塞等代理武装袭击零星延续（类似吉赞炼油厂事件）→ 原油维持高位震荡，能源与黄金板块继续跑赢，市场对冲需求不减。
• 情景C (约20%概率): 谈判破裂或出现重大军事升级 → 原油价格进一步跳涨，股市转为避险模式，黄金加速上行，亚太出口导向型市场（台韩日）承压最大。

全球关税/贸易冲突 #

当日未出现新的重大关税升级消息，7月底"中国半导体自主化"担忧对台韩科技股的冲击已基本被本轮反弹消化，但该主题仍是未来数周科技股波动的潜在触发点，建议持续跟踪。

关键主题 #

• 日经、台股领涨创阶段新高: AI科技股与半导体供应链信心修复是核心驱动，7月底的芯片自主化恐慌基本被消化。
• 黄金原油罕见同步大涨: 并非风险资产的对立信号，而是"降息预期"（提振黄金和股市）与"供给端地缘风险"（单独提振原油）两条逻辑叠加的结果。
• 霍尔木兹海峡"谈判-冲突"两条线并行: 伊朗-阿曼协议取得进展的同时，胡塞武装袭击沙特阿美炼油厂，市场需同时定价缓和与升级两种可能。
• 韩股整固于6,000-7,000区间: 经历7月芯片自主化冲击后，KOSPI尚未恢复对台股式的强势反弹，外资流向与美国CPI是下一步关键变量。
• 印度成为区域内异类: 在亚太普遍上涨背景下逆势小幅下跌，与其较低的半导体周期联动性有关，值得持续观察。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。