亚洲午盘 — 2026-08-07

市场概览 #

Asia split violently on Friday. Seoul was the epicenter: KOSPI shed 5.51% to 6,231.78 — its second consecutive washout after Thursday’s 4.58% drop — as the memory-chip deleveraging trade accelerated on weak US storage earnings (SanDisk -6.8%, Western Digital -13.0% overnight) and renewed Strait of Hormuz hostilities. The flip side of the same tape: Nikkei rebounded 2.21% on chip-bottom fishing and a softer yen (158.38), TAIEX added 1.93%, and ASX 200 jumped 3.26% as gold miners rode a stunning +7.18% bullion spike to $4,323. Oil eased 2.29% to $78.50 as Washington and Tehran both signaled a Hormuz reopening deal is close — even as Iran struck what it called “hostile targets” near Qeshm Island. De-grossing in Korean semis, rotation into Japan/Taiwan tech, and a hard safe-haven bid in gold defined the session.

亚洲市场周五剧烈分化。震中在首尔：KOSPI 重挫 5.51% 至 6,231.78 点，为继周四暴跌 4.58% 后的连续第二日抛售——美国存储股财报疲弱（隔夜 SanDisk 跌 6.8%、西部数据重挫 13.0%）叠加霍尔木兹海峡再度交火，加速了韩国内存芯片股的去杠杆进程。同一盘面的另一面：日经在芯片股抄底和日元走软（158.38）推动下反弹 2.21%，台股上涨 1.93%，澳洲 ASX 200 大涨 3.26%——金矿股乘着黄金单日飙升 7.18% 至 4,323 美元的行情集体暴动。油价回落 2.29% 至 78.50 美元，因美伊双方均释放霍尔木兹复航协议「将近」的信号——尽管伊朗同时在格什姆岛附近打击了所谓「敌对目标」。韩国半导体的减仓、资金向日本/台湾科技股的轮动、以及黄金的强硬避险买盘，构成了今日的主线。

指数表现 #

¹ 港股与 A 股基准为 2026-08-06 收盘 (akshare 源); 据 8/7 盘中资金流数据， 上证 +0.49%、深成指 +1.31%、恒指 +0.15%, 周五早盘整体企稳。

台湾 #

TAIEX closed up 1.93% at 44,224.69, a clean momentum reversal after this week’s global chip wobble. Heavyweights led from the open — TSMC (2330.TW) gapped NT$25 higher to 2,390 before settling around 2,370 (+0.21%), while MediaTek and Delta Electronics opened up NT$70 and NT$20 respectively. The tape shows Taiwan benefiting from the same rotation that is punishing Seoul: foreign money trimming crowded Korean memory exposure is finding its way into TSMC-centric foundry and IC-design names, which carry AI upside without the leveraged-ETF overhang. USD/TWD firmed to 32.20 (-0.29%), confirming orderly foreign flows rather than capitulation. Breadth was healthy; the risk to flag is correlation — if Korean deleveraging turns disorderly over the weekend, Taiwan’s tech beta cuts both ways.

台湾加权指数收涨 1.93% 报 44,224.69 点，在本周全球芯片股动荡后走出干净的反转行情。权重股开盘即领涨——台积电（2330.TW）跳空开高 25 元至 2,390 元，随后回落至 2,370 元附近（+0.21%）；联发科、台达电开盘分别上涨 70 元和 20 元。盘面显示台股正受益于同一轮正在惩罚首尔的轮动：外资从拥挤的韩国内存股撤出后，流向以台积电为核心的代工与 IC 设计板块——这些标的同样具备 AI 上行空间，却没有韩国市场杠杆 ETF 的悬顶之剑。美元/台币升至 32.20（台币走强 0.29%），印证外资流入有序而非溃逃。市场广度健康；需要提示的风险是相关性——若韩国去杠杆在周末演变为无序抛售，台股的科技板块贝塔会双向放大。

韩国 #

KOSPI plunged 5.51% to 6,231.78, extending Thursday’s 4.58% rout and sealing a weekly slide of roughly 6%. The selling mechanics are now familiar but no less violent: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix — over half the index by weight — are being de-grossed in tandem as the global memory trade unwinds. Overnight catalysts were unambiguous: Western Digital collapsed 13% and SanDisk fell 6.8% despite earnings beats, Micron slipped 1.3%, and SK Hynix’s ADR dropped nearly 5%. Layer on Iran’s parliamentary bill to bar US/Israeli vessels from Hormuz and strikes near Qeshm Island, and high-beta Korea was the obvious release valve. Pre-market gains in Samsung (+0.65%) and SK Hynix (+0.33%) evaporated into the close, a sign the bid remains tentative.

The deeper story is positioning, not fundamentals. Kiwoom Securities notes KOSPI’s 12-month forward PER has compressed to ~5.1x even as forward operating profit consensus was raised toward ₩1,200tn — and more sectors actually rose during Thursday’s index plunge, evidence of rotation rather than broad capitulation. But the single-stock leveraged ETF complex and record retail margin debt remain the market’s structural fault line; July’s 22% drawdown showed how quickly forced selling cascades. Watch two levels: 6,200 (today’s intraday shelf) and the won, which paradoxically firmed 1.16% to 1,419 — if that reverses, foreign outflows are accelerating.

韩国综合指数暴跌 5.51% 至 6,231.78 点，延续周四 4.58% 的跌势，全周累计下跌约 6%。抛售的机理已不陌生，但烈度不减：占指数权重过半的三星电子与 SK 海力士被同步减仓，全球内存交易正在退潮。隔夜催化剂十分明确——西部数据暴跌 13%、SanDisk 跌 6.8%（尽管财报超预期），美光跌 1.3%，SK 海力士 ADR 下挫近 5%。再叠加伊朗议会推动禁止美以船只通过霍尔木兹的法案、以及格什姆岛附近的打击事件，高贝塔的韩股成为最明显的泄压阀。盘前三星（+0.65%）与 SK 海力士（+0.33%）的涨幅在收盘前化为乌有，说明抄底买盘仍然犹豫。

更深一层的故事是仓位，而非基本面。Kiwoom 证券指出，KOSPI 的 12 个月远期市盈率已压缩至约 5.1 倍，而远期营业利润一致预期反而上修至接近 1,200 万亿韩元——且周四指数暴跌当天上涨板块其实多于下跌板块，说明这是轮动而非全面投降。但单股杠杆 ETF 与创纪录的散户融资余额仍是市场结构性断层线：7 月 22% 的回撤已经演示过强制平仓的传导速度。盯两个位置：6,200 点（今日盘中支撑带）和韩元——韩元今日反而走强 1.16% 至 1,419，若汇率转头走弱，意味着外资流出正在加速。

日本 #

Nikkei 225 rallied 2.21% to 65,166.35, clawing back part of this week’s losses as chip names bottom-fished after a brutal July for the global semis complex. The setup mirrors Wednesday’s 3.66% surge: Advantest, Tokyo Electron and Kioxia-type names tracking the overnight stabilization in the Philadelphia Semiconductor complex, while a weaker yen — USD/JPY at 158.38, up 0.51% — added a mechanical tailwind for exporters. The currency is now the story within the story: at 158+, verbal intervention risk from the MoF is rising, and Bank of Japan policy sits uncomfortably between imported energy inflation (Hormuz risk premium) and a government hostile to hikes. Banks outperformed on the global repricing toward higher-for-longer — and possibly higher-again — rates, with markets now pricing a 25bp Fed hike in September.

日经 225 大涨 2.21% 至 65,166.35 点，收复本周部分失地。在全球半导体板块经历了惨淡的 7 月后，芯片股迎来抄底买盘。结构上与周三 3.66% 的飙升如出一辙：爱德万测试、东京电子、铠侠一类的芯片股跟随费城半导体指数的隔夜企稳反弹；日元走软——美元/日元报 158.38，日元贬值 0.51%——为出口股提供了机械式顺风。汇率正成为主线中的主线：158 上方，财务省口头干预的风险在升温，而日本央行被夹在进口能源通胀（霍尔木兹风险溢价）与反对加息的政府之间，政策处境尴尬。银行股跑赢大盘，因全球利率预期正重新定价为「更高更久」甚至「更高再加」——市场已开始计入美联储 9 月加息 25 个基点。

香港 #

Hang Seng’s last confirmed close was Thursday at 25,530.28, down 1.49%, with HSCEI at 8,503.78 (-1.26%) — caught between two opposing currents: the US-Iran peace optimism that cushions global risk, and the Korean/AI unwind that pressures China tech beta. Friday’s intraday flow data shows the index stabilizing (+0.15% at midday snapshot), but southbound behavior turned cautious: Stock Connect net flow was a small net sale of roughly ¥750mn (Shanghai leg +¥109mn, Shenzhen leg -¥859mn), suggesting mainland money is fading the dip rather than chasing it. Rate-sensitive property and financials got some relief from the 10-year Treasury easing to 4.67%; the internet complex remains hostage to the Nasdaq’s AI-capex debate.

恒生指数最近确认收盘为周四的 25,530.28 点，跌 1.49%；恒生国企指数报 8,503.78 点（-1.26%）——港股被夹在两股对冲的力量之间：美伊和解乐观情绪托住全球风险偏好，而韩国/AI 去杠杆则压制中国科技贝塔。周五盘中资金流数据显示指数企稳（午盘快照 +0.15%），但南向资金转向谨慎：港股通合计小幅净卖出约 7.5 亿元（沪市净买 1.09 亿、深市净卖 8.59 亿），说明内地资金在借反弹减仓而非抄底。美债 10 年期收益率回落至 4.67%，给利率敏感的地产与金融板块带来喘息；互联网板块则仍受困于纳斯达克的 AI 资本开支之争。

中国 #

A-shares were steady-to-firmer: CSI 300’s Thursday close was 4,651.31 (-0.15%) and Shanghai Composite 3,900.35 (+0.57%), while Friday intraday prints show the SSE up 0.49% and Shenzhen Component up 1.31% — mainland indices again showing the low-correlation resilience that has characterized them through the global AI unwind. Onshore sentiment is anchored by two idiosyncratic supports: institutional positioning data showing Chinese investors building long positions in gold-backed assets as a tech-volatility hedge, and the policy put that keeps liquidity ample. The friction point to watch is the EU-China sanctions tit-for-tat: Beijing added 14 European tech/chemical/defense firms to its export-control list in retaliation for the EU’s 21st Russia package sanctioning 14 Chinese entities — a slow-burn risk for European-facing supply chains rather than an immediate index driver.

A 股稳中偏强：沪深 300 周四收 4,651.31 点（-0.15%），上证综指收 3,900.35 点（+0.57%）；周五盘中数据显示上证 +0.49%、深成指 +1.31%——在本轮全球 AI 退潮中，A 股再次展现出低相关性的韧性。境内情绪由两个特有因素支撑：一是清算机构数据显示，境内机构投资者持续增持黄金相关资产多头，作为科技股波动的对冲；二是政策托底保持流动性充裕。需要关注的摩擦点是中欧制裁交锋：作为对欧盟第 21 轮对俄制裁（将 14 家中国实体列入名单）的反制，中国商务部将 14 家欧洲科技/化工/防务企业列入出口管制清单——这对面向欧洲的供应链是慢火风险，而非即时的指数驱动因素。

其他亚太市场 #

Australia was the session’s standout: ASX 200 +3.26% to 9,269.10, a direct function of gold’s +7.18% spike — the index’s heavyweight gold and diversified miners (Newmont-listed peers, Northern Star, Evolution-type names) are the purest listed proxy for the bullion move, and falling oil adds a cost-side kicker for the sector. Indonesia’s JCI (+2.51%) rode the same commodity-and-rotation wave, with foreign money rotating out of North Asian tech beta into ASEAN value. India was flat (+0.09%) but quietly well-positioned: the RBI held at 5.25% mid-week, cheaper crude directly eases India’s import bill and current-account math, and a Hormuz deal would be an unambiguous positive for the world’s most oil-sensitive major market.

澳大利亚是今日最大亮点：ASX 200 大涨 3.26% 至 9,269.10 点，直接对应黄金 7.18% 的飙升——指数中的金矿与多元化矿业权重股是金价行情最纯粹的上市代理，而油价下跌又给矿业板块送上成本端的额外利好。印尼 JCI（+2.51%）乘上同一波「大宗商品 + 轮动」行情，外资正从北亚科技贝塔撤出、转投东盟价值股。印度持平（+0.09%）但位置悄然有利：央行周中将利率维持在 5.25%，油价回落直接改善印度的进口账单与经常账户，而霍尔木兹若达成协议，对这个全球对油价最敏感的主要市场将是明确的利好。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

今日沪股通、深股通净买入数据均为 0（数据未有效更新，北向实时净买入披露机制调整后盘中数据可得性有限）。从市场广度看，沪市 741 涨 / 853 跌，深市 858 涨 / 978 跌，下跌家数略多，但指数收红，属权重股撑盘的结构性行情。

南向资金 #

港股通（沪）净买入 +1.09 亿元，港股通（深）净卖出 -8.59 亿元，合计净卖出约 7.5 亿元。南向资金在恒指两连跌后转向谨慎，深市通道的明显净流出指向互联网/科技持仓的获利了结，与韩国 AI 去杠杆的外溢情绪一致。

汇率与宏观 #

黄金单日 +7.18% 是今日最刺眼的数字。三股力量叠加：伊朗在格什姆岛附近打击「敌对目标」引发的避险脉冲、美联储官员接连放鹰（市场已计入 9 月加息 25bp，通胀风险重燃下的硬资产对冲）、以及清算数据显示中国机构持续增持黄金多头。值得注意的反常组合：美元/韩元下跌 1.16%（韩元走强）发生在 KOSPI 暴跌当日，显示韩元抛售尚未与股市去杠杆形成螺旋——这是判断韩国压力是否系统性化的关键观察点。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

English: The dominant macro variable. Ceasefire day 120: the Minoan Pioneer bulker was struck near Oman on Aug 3-4 (one crew missing); Iran struck “hostile targets” in the strait after explosions near Qeshm Island; parliament is reviewing a bill to bar US and Israeli vessels and charge “hostile” states transit fees. CENTCOM confirmed its blockade has redirected 49 commercial vessels. Yet both Washington and Tehran say a reopening deal is near — Iranian and Omani negotiators have finalized a draft (Iranian-controlled entry lane, Omani exit lane, service fees — which the US opposes) awaiting Supreme Leader approval. Trump says signing could come as early as Sunday. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf publicly mocked US “theater diplomacy.”

中文: 这是当前主导的宏观变量。停火第 120 天：8 月 3-4 日，散货船 Minoan Pioneer 在阿曼附近被击中（一名船员失踪）；伊朗在格什姆岛附近爆炸事件后打击了海峡内的「敌对目标」；伊朗议会正在审议禁止美以船只通行、并向「敌对国家」收取通行费的法案。美军中央司令部确认其封锁行动已拦截改道 49 艘商船。但美伊双方均表示复航协议将近——伊朗与阿曼谈判代表已敲定草案（伊朗控制入港航道、阿曼控制出港航道、收取服务费，美方反对收费条款），正待最高领袖批准。特朗普称最早周日（8/9）可能签署；伊朗议长加利巴夫则公开嘲讽美方「戏剧外交」。

关键时间节点：8 月 9-10 日（周末）——美伊协议潜在签署窗口；若周末无协议且海峡再发袭击，周一亚洲开盘将直接定价升级情景。

2. 俄乌战争 #

English: The war’s market channel has shifted from energy shock to sanctions spillover. The EU’s 21st package (Jul 23) sanctioned 14 Chinese and Hong Kong entities for aiding Russia’s war effort; Beijing retaliated within 24 hours by adding 14 European tech, chemical and defense firms to its export-control list with extraterritorial reach. In Washington, the Senate advanced the Graham Sanctioning Russia Act for final passage — blocking assets, banning energy/defense investment and sovereign-debt transactions. Rubio met Lavrov on Jul 23 on ending the war. OFAC’s Lukoil International sale license runs to Aug 22.

中文: 俄乌战争对市场的影响通道已从能源冲击转为制裁外溢。欧盟第 21 轮制裁（7/23）将 14 家中国及香港实体列入名单；北京在 24 小时内反制，将 14 家欧洲科技、化工、防务企业列入出口管制清单，且含域外适用条款。美国参议院已推进《格雷厄姆制裁俄罗斯法案》终审程序——涵盖资产冻结、能源/防务投资禁令和主权债交易禁令。鲁比奥 7/23 与拉夫罗夫会面讨论停战。OFAC 对卢克石油国际资产出售的许可将于 8 月 22 日到期。

关键时间节点：8 月 22 日——OFAC 卢克石油许可到期日，若不再延期将扰动欧洲油品供应链。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

English: The tariff stack keeps compounding. Section 301 duties on ~60 economies took effect Jul 24 (10% baseline; 10-12.5% for EU/Japan/Korea/Taiwan on certain products). Section 232 pharma tariffs hit 100% for listed companies on Jul 31, with the broader wave landing Sep 29. Trump’s Section 338 50% tariff on Canadian goods takes effect Aug 19 — the next hard date. The EU’s suspension of retaliation expired Aug 6 with no renewal announced, leaving a live tail risk of EU countermeasures snapping back. US-China remains in extended talks at a 30% tariff ceiling.

中文: 关税层层叠加。对约 60 个经济体的 301 条款关税已于 7/24 生效（基准 10%；欧盟/日韩/台湾部分产品 10-12.5%）。232 条款药品关税 7/31 起对名单内企业达 100%，更大范围 9/29 落地。特朗普援引 338 条款对加拿大商品加征 50% 关税，8 月 19 日生效——这是最近的硬日期。欧盟对美反制关税的暂停期已于 8 月 6 日到期，且尚未宣布续期，欧盟反制「回弹」是一个现实的尾部风险。中美仍处于延长谈判期，关税上限 30%。

关键时间节点：8 月 19 日（对加 338 关税生效）、9 月 29 日（药品关税扩大）、欧盟反制暂停到期后的任何官宣。

4. 专家研判 #

相对受益方向：

• 黄金与贵金属矿业 — 紫金矿业、山东黄金、澳洲金矿股：海峡不确定性 + 央行购金 + 加息周期通胀对冲三重驱动
• 油运与上游油气 — 中远海能、招商轮船、Woodside：无论协议签与不签，运价溢价与油价中枢均有支撑
• 日本银行 — 三菱 UFJ、瑞穗：全球利率「更高更久」 + 日本国内加息预期重燃
• 东盟价值/大宗商品联动 — 印尼 JCI 成分、澳洲多元化矿业：北亚科技减仓的承接方向
• 欧洲防务 — Rheinmetall、BAE：制裁与军费周期不受短期外交波动影响

需要回避方向：

• 韩国内存双雄及相关杠杆产品 — 三星、SK 海力士：去杠杆未完成，单股杠杆 ETF 强制平仓是尾部放大器，等待仓位出清信号而非左侧接刀
• 航空与高燃油敞口物流 — 大韩航空、国泰：海峡局势若再度升级，燃油与保费双杀
• 欧洲对华出口型化工/设备 — 14 家被列管企业及同业：中国出口管制反制的直接打击面
• 美股高估值存储/AI 硬件 — 西部数据、SanDisk 财报后的走势说明「符合预期即等于失望」，估值消化未结束

情景分析（针对 8/9-10 美伊协议窗口）：

关键主题 #

• 韩国去杠杆进行时: KOSPI 两日累跌逾 10%，远期 P/E 压至 5.1 倍，仓位出清而非基本面恶化，但杠杆 ETF 断层线未除
• 黄金单日 +7.18%: 地缘脉冲 + 美联储 9 月加息定价 + 中国机构增持，三力合一的避险风暴
• 霍尔木兹「边打边谈」: 袭击与签约信号同步出现，周末（8/9-10）是下一个定价窗口
• 资金北亚内轮动: 韩国流出的资金正在增配日台科技与东盟价值，澳洲借金矿股 +3.26% 领跑全区
• 关税日历密集: 8/19 对加 50%、9/29 药品关税扩大、欧盟反制暂停到期，贸易摩擦进入第二轮发酵期

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。