亚洲午盘 — 2026-08-06

市场概览 #

隔夜美股存储板块暴雷——闪迪业绩指引不及预期跌逾8%、西部数据大跌超11%——抛售情绪沿供应链传导至亚太，存储与半导体权重股集体重挫，韩国综合指数午盘跌3.99%领跌全区，三星电子、SK海力士盘中跌幅一度接近双位数。避险与宽松交易同时发酵：美国7月ADP新增就业仅4.4万人远低于预期，美联储宽松预期升温推动现货黄金突破4300美元关口，创6月18日以来新高；伊朗与阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡通航安排接近达成协议，WTI原油连续第三日下挫，单日再跌6.86%。港股受科网股与友邦保险拖累跌1.87%，A股相对抗跌，上证综指仅微跌0.06%。

指数表现 #

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX proved the most resilient of North Asia’s tech-heavy benchmarks, slipping just 0.32% to 44,470.52 after recovering from an intraday low of 44,024.32. The foundry-led tape held up far better than Korea’s memory complex: TSMC’s exposure is logic and advanced packaging rather than commodity DRAM/NAND, insulating it from the US memory guidance miss that hammered SanDisk and Western Digital overnight. Fundamentals remain a backstop — TSMC’s June revenue rose 67.9% YoY and management reiterated 30%+ USD revenue growth for 2026 — but the morning session showed clear de-grossing in AI-adjacent names as global funds cut semiconductor beta indiscriminately at the open before discerning buyers stepped in. A firmer Taiwan dollar (USD/TWD -0.53% to 32.22) added a mild headwind for exporter earnings translation.

台股是今日北亚科技权重指数中最抗跌的市场，加权指数午盘仅跌0.32%报44,470.52点，盘中最低触及44,024.32后明显收复。以台积电为核心的晶圆代工链条表现远好于韩国存储板块：台积电主营逻辑芯片与先进封装，而非大宗商品化的DRAM/NAND，因此躲过了隔夜闪迪、西部数据指引暴雷的直接冲击。基本面上，台积电6月营收同比增长67.9%，管理层重申2026年美元营收增速超30%，构成下方支撑。但早盘仍出现明显的"de-grossing"（无差别削减风险敞口）——全球资金在开盘阶段一刀切地降低半导体板块持仓，之后才有甄别型买盘进场。新台币走强（美元/台币跌0.53%至32.22）对出口商盈利折算构成轻微压力。

韩国 #

The KOSPI cratered 3.99% to 6,335.01 by midday, the worst performer in the region, as a US memory-sector guidance shock landed on a market still nursing a structural deleveraging hangover. SanDisk’s disappointing outlook (shares -8% overnight) and Western Digital’s 11% plunge transmitted directly into Seoul: Samsung Electronics fell more than 6% intraday while SK Hynix and Kioxia-linked names dropped nearly 10%, with the South Korea 2x leveraged Samsung ETF down over 10% in Hong Kong trading. With Samsung and SK Hynix still representing roughly half of index market cap, the two-stock transmission mechanism remains as potent on the way down as it was on the way up.

深度分析 — Depth view. This is the second leg of Korea’s 2026 unwind. The first was mechanical: leveraged-ETF margin cascades that dragged the index 44% below its June peak of 9,114.55 and triggered eight circuit breakers through late July, before a record 18% single-day rebound on July 31. Today’s selling is different in character — it is earnings-driven re-rating, not forced liquidation. The worry crystallized by SanDisk/WD is that HBM and NAND pricing has peaked just as ChangXin Memory’s blockbuster IPO (shares +466% on debut) signals fresh Chinese capacity entering the market. Watch 6,200 as first support (today’s intraday low 6,238.32 already probed it); a sustained break opens the June consolidation zone. On the flow side, foreign investors have sold over $100bn of Korean equities YTD while domestic retail absorbed the supply with leverage — that asymmetry means rallies will keep meeting overhead supply from underwater “ant” accounts. The won held relatively steady (USD/KRW 1,418.28), suggesting no funding stress yet, but the Bank of Korea’s room to ease is constrained by the currency.

韩国综合指数午盘重挫3.99%报6,335.01点，为全区最差表现——美国存储板块的指引暴雷，正中一个尚未走出结构性去杠杆创伤的市场。闪迪指引不及预期（隔夜跌超8%）、西部数据暴跌11%，情绪直传首尔：三星电子盘中跌超6%，SK海力士及铠侠相关个股跌近10%，港股上市的南方两倍做多三星电子ETF跌超10%。三星与海力士合计仍占指数市值约一半，“两只股票决定指数"的传导机制，下跌时和上涨时同样有效。

深度分析。 这是韩国2026年大调整的第二阶段。第一阶段是机械性的：杠杆ETF保证金连环强平，指数从6月9,114.55点高点最多回撤44%，年内触发八次熔断，直到7月31日创纪录单日反弹18%。今日抛售的性质不同——这是盈利驱动的估值重定价，而非强制平仓。闪迪/西部数据所确认的担忧是：HBM与NAND涨价周期见顶之际，长鑫存储IPO首日暴涨466%又预示着中国新增产能正在入场。技术上关注6,200点一线支撑（今日盘中低点6,238.32已初步试探），有效跌破将打开6月盘整区下沿。资金面上，外资年内净卖出韩股超1,000亿美元，而国内散户以杠杆接盘——这种不对称意味着每次反弹都会遭遇套牢"蚂蚁"账户的上方抛压。韩元相对平稳（美元/韩元1,418.28），显示尚无资金面应激，但韩国央行的宽松空间受汇率约束。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 fell 0.86% to 65,731.61, a relatively contained move given the semiconductor rout, thanks to the index’s lighter memory weighting and a powerful offset from the macro tape. USD/JPY dropped 1.51% to 157.76 as the yen extended its rebound — the collapse in oil prices directly relieves Japan’s energy import bill, removing the single biggest structural drag on the currency, while soft US labour data (ADP +44k) revived Fed easing expectations and narrowed rate differentials at the margin. Chip-adjacent names bore the brunt: Kioxia-linked shares fell nearly 10% in sympathy with the US memory complex, and equipment makers traded heavy. The flip side is that a sustained Brent/WTI slide toward the low-$70s is unambiguously positive for Japan’s terms of trade — cheaper energy plus a firmer yen is the classic recipe for domestic-demand rotation, which helped the index recover more than 1,000 points off its intraday low of 64,942.07.

日经225指数午盘跌0.86%报65,731.61点，在半导体风暴中表现相对克制，得益于指数存储权重较低以及宏观面的强力对冲。美元/日元下跌1.51%至157.76，日元延续反弹——油价暴跌直接减轻日本能源进口账单，移除了日元最大的结构性拖累；同时美国就业数据疲软（ADP仅增4.4万人）重燃美联储宽松预期，边际上收窄了利差。芯片相关股承压最重：铠侠相关个股跟随美股存储板块跌近10%，半导体设备股同样走弱。另一面是，WTI持续滑向70美元低位对日本贸易条件是绝对利好——能源变便宜叠加日元走强，是资金从出口股向内需股轮动的经典配方，这也帮助指数从盘中低点64,942.07点收复了逾千点失地。

香港 #

The Hang Seng Index dropped 1.87% to 25,431.42, with losses broadening well beyond the tech rout. AIA (1299.HK) plunged 8.75% — the single biggest index drag — after Caixin reported that mainland tax authorities in Beijing and Hangzhou have begun levying a 20% individual income tax on gains from overseas insurance policies, closing a long-standing loophole that underpinned mainland-visitor policy sales in Hong Kong. Prudential and peers with similar exposure sold off in sympathy. Megacap tech added pressure: Alibaba (9988.HK) -3.12%, Baidu (9888.HK) -3.21%, Xiaomi (1810.HK) -2.39%, Tencent (700.HK) -1.83%, while SMIC (0981.HK) fell 4.04% and Hua Hong (1347.HK) -3.46% on the memory shock. Hong Kong property slid on deteriorating office fundamentals — Wharf REIC (1997.HK) -5.38%, SHK Properties (0016.HK) -5.18% — after Swire reported Q2 office rents down 14-17% at its flagship complexes. The bright spots were idiosyncratic: MiniMax-W (2398.HK) surged 16.15% on its first day of Stock Connect eligibility, gold miners rallied with bullion through $4,300, and optical-module names like Zhongji Innolight +5.47% caught a bid on 1.6T/CPO volume expectations. Southbound flows were mixed: +RMB 4.11bn via Shanghai Connect against -RMB 1.90bn via Shenzhen.

恒生指数午盘跌1.87%报25,431.42点，抛压远不止科技板块。友邦保险(1299.HK)暴跌8.75%，为指数最大拖累——财新报道北京、杭州税务机关已开始对境外保单收益征收20%个人所得税，堵上了支撑内地访客赴港投保的长期监管漏洞，保诚等同类敞口公司跟随下挫。科技权重普跌：阿里巴巴(9988.HK) -3.12%、百度(9888.HK) -3.21%、小米(1810.HK) -2.39%、腾讯(700.HK) -1.83%；中芯国际(0981.HK)受存储暴雷拖累跌4.04%，华虹(1347.HK)跌3.46%。香港地产股因写字楼基本面走弱普跌——九龙仓置业(1997.HK) -5.38%、新鸿基地产(0016.HK) -5.18%，此前太古地产披露二季度旗下旗舰商场及写字楼租金下跌14%-17%。亮点来自个股逻辑：MiniMax-W(2398.HK)纳入港股通首日大涨16.15%；黄金股随金价突破4,300美元普涨；中际旭创等光模块龙头受1.6T/CPO放量预期涨5.47%。南向资金分化：港股通（沪）净流入41.08亿元，港股通（深）净流出18.99亿元。

中国 #

Mainland equities were conspicuously calm amid the regional storm: the Shanghai Composite eased just 0.06% to 3,876.25 and the CSI 300 fell 0.61% to 4,629.58, while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.75%. Breadth was weak — decliners outnumbered advancers roughly 2.5-to-1 on both exchanges (1,163/452 in Shanghai, 1,385/464 in Shenzhen) — but index-level damage was contained because China’s memory exposure is limited and the state-adjacent bid remains active under large caps. Sector action mirrored Hong Kong: lithium names slid across the board (Ganfeng -4.84%, CATL -3.38% on cost pressures and second-supplier competition), while PCB and optical names with hard earnings catalysts outperformed — Shenghong Technology +7.69%, Kingboard Laminates holding gains after guiding H1 net profit up over 200%. Gold names rallied on the bullion breakout. Notably, the renminbi firmed (USD/CNY 6.75, -0.09%), and Beijing’s move to tax overseas insurance policy income signals regulators are actively steering household savings back onshore — a subtle but real liquidity positive for domestic asset prices.

A股在区域风暴中异常平静：上证综指午盘仅微跌0.06%报3,876.25点，沪深300跌0.61%报4,629.58点，深证成指跌0.75%。市场广度偏弱——两市下跌家数约为上涨家数的2.5倍（沪市1,163跌/452涨，深市1,385跌/464涨）——但指数层面损伤有限，因为A股对存储芯片的直接敞口较小，且大盘蓝筹下方仍有类国家队资金承接。板块表现与港股呼应：锂电池全线走低（赣锋锂业-4.84%、宁德时代-3.38%，成本压力叠加车企导入二供），而有硬业绩催化的PCB与光通信走强——胜宏科技+7.69%，建滔积层板预告上半年纯利同比增逾200%后守住涨幅；黄金股随金价突破普涨。值得注意的是，人民币走强（美元/人民币6.75，-0.09%），且北京对境外保单收益征税的动作表明监管层正主动引导居民储蓄回流境内——对国内资产价格而言，这是一个细微但真实的流动性利好。

其他亚太市场 #

新加坡（+0.84%）与泰国（+0.75%）是今日唯二明显收涨的亚太市场，逻辑一致：两者都是半导体敞口低、银行与内需权重高的市场，在"卖科技、买价值"的区域轮动中天然受益；油价暴跌还直接改善两国的进口通胀预期。印度SENSEX微涨0.21%，继续走自己的节奏——其与美国关税谈判（最高50%关税）的拖累已被国内市场充分消化，油价回落反而缓解其最大的宏观软肋（原油进口账单）。整体来看，今日亚太内部呈现清晰的"存储链 vs 非科技"断层线：跌幅排序（韩国 > 香港 > 日本 > 台湾 > 东南亚/澳洲/印度）几乎就是各市场半导体权重的排序。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

沪股通、深股通今日净买入数据均为0（数据源未更新/额度制下不再披露实时净买入），但从涨跌家数看（沪市452涨/1,163跌，深市464涨/1,385跌），外资与内资整体均偏谨慎，未出现异常流出信号。

南向资金 #

港股通（沪）净买入41.08亿元，港股通（深）净卖出18.99亿元，合计净流入约22.08亿元。在恒指跌近2%的背景下，内地资金仍选择逢低承接，但力度明显弱于此前的"越跌越买"模式，方向集中在黄金股与光模块等确定性主线。

汇率与宏观 #

注：黄金涨幅以数据供应商快照为准；公开盘面显示现货金今日盘中突破4,300美元/盎司，为6月18日以来最高，主因美国ADP就业数据远逊预期、美联储宽松预期升温。WTI单日-6.86%与伊朗-阿曼霍尔木兹通航谈判取得实质进展直接相关，为连续第三日大跌。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 美伊冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡 —— 缓和边缘，但尚未落地 #

English. The dominant geopolitical driver this week is diplomacy, not escalation. Tehran and Muscat are converging on a “third corridor” arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz — neither the northern nor southern route, but one respecting both sides’ sovereign claims — with Foreign Minister Araghchi telling cabinet on August 2 that talks are “on the way to being finalised.” President Pezeshkian called the MOU with Washington the “cornerstone” of Iran’s future foreign relations. Oil has taken the diplomacy at face value: WTI fell for a third straight session (-6.86% to $74.83), unwinding most of the July war premium that had taken Brent above $100. But the strait is not normal: the IRGC is still turning back ships, a tanker explosion was reported off the Omani coast on August 3, and marine insurance rates remain elevated. The 60-day ceasefire framework and the 30-day reopening window are the binding constraints.

中文。 本周地缘主线是外交而非升级。伊朗与阿曼正就霍尔木兹海峡"第三通道"方案靠拢——既非北线也非南线，而是兼顾双方主权主张的新走廊——伊朗外长阿拉格齐8月2日向内阁表示谈判"接近最终完成”，总统佩泽希齐扬更将与华盛顿的谅解备忘录称为伊朗未来外交的"基石"。油价选择相信外交：WTI连续第三日下跌（-6.86%至74.83美元），基本回吐7月战争中把布伦特推上100美元的风险溢价。但海峡远未恢复正常：革命卫队仍在拦截驱离船只，8月3日阿曼外海又发生油轮爆炸事件，海运保险费率维持高位。约束性的时间节点是60天停火框架与30天复航窗口。

关键时间节点： 8月中旬前伊朗-阿曼走廊方案正式签署（窗口期）；60天停火到期日（约9月中旬）；EIA/IEA月度报告对复航进度的确认。

2. 俄乌战争 —— 消耗战持续，停火概率不足五成 #

English. No near-term resolution in sight. Ukraine has escalated its “long-range sanctions” campaign, striking military and energy infrastructure up to 1,000km inside Russia; Moscow rejected ceasefire proposals and continues pressing battlefield advantages, with prediction markets pricing a 2026 ceasefire at only ~45%. The EU renewed its Russia sanctions package on July 9. For Asia, the transmission is second-order: European defense spending keeps grinding higher, and any supply-side shock to Russian energy would partially offset the Hormuz de-escalation dividend in oil.

中文。 短期内看不到解决方案。乌克兰将"远程制裁"打击升级至俄境内1,000公里纵深的军事与能源设施；俄方拒绝停火提议并继续利用战场优势，预测市场对2026年内停火的定价仅约45%。欧盟7月9日续期对俄制裁。对亚洲而言传导是二阶的：欧洲军费开支持续走高利好防务链；而俄罗斯能源供给若再生变故，将部分对冲霍尔木兹缓和带来的油价红利。

关键时间节点： 9月联合国大会期间的外交窗口；冬季前欧洲天然气补库进度。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 —— 芯片与北美成为新前线 #

English. The tariff map keeps expanding. Trump signed three proclamations on July 20 imposing 50% tariffs on a wide range of Canadian exports under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, effective around August 19 — a direct hit to North American auto and materials supply chains. January’s semiconductor and critical-minerals proclamations remain in force, while the US-China reciprocal tariff suspension runs through November 10, 2026. Legal risk cuts both ways: the Court of International Trade ruled in May that the 10% baseline tariff was unlawful. The structural read-through for Asia: supply-chain diversification continues to favor Southeast Asia, while China’s memory push (CXMT) is redrawing the competitive map independently of tariffs.

中文。 关税版图仍在扩张。特朗普7月20日签署三项公告，援引《1930年关税法》第338条对大范围加拿大商品加征50%关税，约8月19日生效——直接冲击北美汽车与原材料供应链。1月的半导体与关键矿产关税公告仍然有效，而中美互征关税的暂停期持续到2026年11月10日。法律风险双向存在：美国国际贸易法院5月裁定10%基准关税违法。对亚洲的结构性含义：供应链多元化继续利好东南亚，而中国存储产能的崛起（长鑫存储）正在关税之外独立重画竞争版图。

关键时间节点： 8月19日加拿大关税生效；11月10日中美关税暂停到期。

4. 其他活跃事件 —— 韩国杠杆ETF监管与中国跨境税收 #

韩国金融当局已暂停新发个股杠杆ETF并将保证金要求提高两倍，去杠杆进程未完成，散户强平仍可能在波动日放大跌幅。中国对境外保单收益开征20%个税（友邦单日-8.75%），标志着跨境资本与税收监管进入新阶段，后续关注是否延伸至其他离岸金融产品。

专家研判 #

相对受益方向：

• 黄金及金矿股：紫金矿业、中国黄金国际、潼关黄金 —— 宽松预期+双冲突避险+央行购金三重支撑
• 光模块/PCB（业绩确定性主线）：中际旭创、胜宏科技、建滔积层板 —— 1.6T/CPO与英伟达Rubin升级量价齐升
• 航空/炼化：国泰航空、恒力石化 —— 油价下行的成本红利
• 防务：三菱重工、韩华航空航天 —— 欧洲军费+亚太安全开支结构性上行
• 新加坡/泰国银行与内需股：DBS、盘谷银行 —— 区域轮动避风港

需要回避方向：

• 存储芯片高贝塔：三星电子、SK海力士、铠侠链 —— 指引暴雷+中国产能+周期见顶三重压制
• 香港写字楼地产：九龙仓置业、新鸿基地产、太古地产 —— 租金下行未见底
• 依赖内地访客保单的保险股：友邦保险、保诚 —— 20%跨境税收冲击商业模式
• 锂电池中游：赣锋锂业、中创新航 —— 成本抬升+二线厂出清加速

情景分析（未来30天，锚定霍尔木兹协议签署）：

• 情景A（概率55%）：走廊协议签署，航运逐步恢复 —— WTI下探$68-70，航空炼化受益延续，黄金回吐部分涨幅但守住$4,200；亚太科技在财报验证后企稳。
• 情景B（概率30%）：谈判拖延，海峡维持"半开半堵" —— 油价$72-80震荡，市场定价疲劳，板块分化延续，黄金高位盘整。
• 情景C（概率15%）：谈判破裂或新袭击事件 —— 油价单日+10%以上跳涨重回$85+，全球风险资产普跌2-4%，KOSPI杠杆盘再遭强平，黄金冲击前高。

关键主题 #

• 存储暴雷传导: 闪迪/西部数据指引不及预期引发亚太半导体连锁抛售，韩国-3.99%领跌，存储周期"见顶论"首次获得财报层面证据。
• 韩国去杠杆第二阶段: 从机械性强平转向盈利重定价，三星+海力士52%权重使KOSPI波动率超过比特币，散户杠杆出清远未结束。
• 霍尔木兹缓和交易: 伊朗-阿曼走廊方案接近落地，WTI三日累计下挫，油价战争溢价快速出清，利好航空炼化与日本贸易条件。
• 黄金突破4300美元: ADP仅4.4万人引爆宽松预期，叠加双冲突避险底仓，金价创近七周新高，金矿股成港股唯一系统性亮点。
• 中国跨境税收新周期: 境外保单收益开征20%个税击穿友邦(-8.75%)，居民资金回流境内的政策意图明确，A股流动性获得隐性支撑。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。