亚洲午盘 — 2026-08-04

市场概览 #

周末地缘剧本反转主导今日亚洲盘面。特朗普周六在 Truth Social 上叫停了对伊朗的军事行动——按他自己的说法，那将是"二战以来最大规模的打击"——理由是海湾盟友（沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔）和伊朗方面请求给外交一次机会，并称协议"近在咫尺"。油价应声回落（WTI -2.92% 至 $81.15），亚洲能源进口国集体释然性反弹：台股加权指数单日暴涨 7.84% 领跑全区，日经 +3.26%，KOSPI +2.40%。日元出现近 4% 的剧烈升值，市场猜测财务省在 160 上方再度出手。港股与 A 股主板相对克制，但 A 股创业板半日大涨 4.83%，CPO 概念在英伟达量产消息催化下全线走强。

指数表现 #

*注：港股/A股主指数列为 8 月 3 日收盘数据；今日午盘实时表现为：恒指约 -0.49%，上证综指 +0.16%（3,815.59），深证成指 +2.74%（13,817.39），创业板指半日 +4.83%。

台湾 #

The TAIEX detonated higher by 7.84% to 43,176.71 — a single-session gain of more than 3,100 points — in what screens as a classic short-covering plus relief-rally combo. Two catalysts converged: Trump calling off the weekend strike on Iran removed the tail-risk premium that had been hanging over all energy-importing North Asian markets, and dip-buyers piled back into the AI complex after last week’s global de-grossing. With TSMC(2330) carrying roughly 44% of index weight, the benchmark is effectively a levered proxy for the AI capex trade, and any broad risk-on impulse gets amplified mechanically. The FSC’s April decision to lift single-stock concentration caps for local funds from 10% to 25% continues to provide a structural domestic bid underneath. USD/TWD held flat at 32.37, suggesting the move was equity-flow driven rather than FX-positioning driven. Breadth was exceptionally strong, with momentum names in semis, packaging and server supply chain leading.

台股加权指数暴涨 7.84% 至 43,176.71 点，单日上涨超过 3,100 点，是典型的"空头回补 + 释然性反弹"叠加行情。双重催化共振：特朗普叫停周末对伊空袭，消除了悬在所有北亚能源进口市场头上的尾部风险溢价；同时抄底资金在上周全球降杠杆（de-grossing，即机构同步削减多空仓位）之后重新涌入 AI 板块。由于台积电(2330)占指数权重约 44%，加权指数本质上是 AI 资本开支交易的杠杆化代理，任何广泛的风险偏好回暖都会被机械放大。金管会 4 月将本土基金个股持仓上限从 10% 放宽至 25% 的决定，持续为台股提供结构性的内资买盘支撑。美元/台币持平于 32.37，说明本轮上涨由股票资金驱动而非汇率仓位驱动。盘面广度极强，半导体、封测与服务器供应链领涨。

补充观察：单日 +7.84% 属于历史上前 1% 分位的极端涨幅，类似量级仅见于 2025 年 4 月关税暂停后的 +9.25% 与今年 4 月美伊停火后的行情。短线超买信号明确，若美伊谈判在周中出现反复，获利回吐的速度可能与今日上涨同样剧烈。

韩国 #

The KOSPI climbed 2.40% to 6,168.07, extending its recovery from last Tuesday’s rout when the index cratered 6% to 5,663 after SK Hynix’s(000660) profit miss triggered a violent unwind in leveraged chip ETFs. Today’s bid was twin-engine: the Iran de-escalation knocked oil lower — Korea imports virtually all of its crude, much of it historically through Hormuz — and foreign investors returned to Samsung Electronics(005930) and SK Hynix as the memory cycle narrative re-stabilized. The won rallied hard, with USD/KRW dropping 1.53% to 1,430.98, the sharpest single-day appreciation in weeks, confirming genuine foreign inflow rather than a purely domestic retail bid. Concentration risk remains the structural story: the two memory giants account for nearly half of index market cap, so KOSPI beta to the AI trade stays extreme in both directions.

KOSPI 上涨 2.40% 至 6,168.07 点，延续上周二暴跌后的修复行情——当日 SK 海力士(000660)盈利不及预期，引发芯片杠杆 ETF 的剧烈平仓，指数单日重挫 6% 至 5,663 点。今日买盘有双引擎：伊朗局势缓和压低油价（韩国原油几乎全部依赖进口，且历史上相当部分经霍尔木兹海峡运输）；外资回流三星电子(005930)与 SK 海力士，存储周期叙事重新企稳。韩元大幅走强，美元/韩元下跌 1.53% 至 1,430.98，创数周最大单日升值幅度，印证这是真实的外资流入而非本土散户买盘。集中度风险仍是结构性主题：两大存储巨头占指数市值近半，KOSPI 对 AI 交易的双向贝塔都极端。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 surged 3.26% to 63,438.57, adding over 2,000 points as Japan — Asia’s most oil-sensitive major economy — priced in the prospect of an actual Hormuz reopening. Lower crude translates directly into trade-balance relief and reduced input-cost pressure for Japanese manufacturers. The day’s more violent move, however, was in FX: USD/JPY collapsed 3.82% to 157.61, a six-yen-plus swing that bears the fingerprints of suspected MOF intervention after the pair pushed through the low-160s, a zone where the ministry has drawn the line repeatedly this year. A stronger yen normally clips exporter earnings expectations, but today the Hormuz relief bid overwhelmed the FX headwind; chip equipment names rebounded from last week’s earthquake-and-tech-selloff double hit. Watch whether authorities confirm intervention — unsterilized yen-buying would tighten domestic liquidity at the margin.

日经 225 大涨 3.26% 至 63,438.57 点，单日上涨超 2,000 点。作为亚洲对油价最敏感的主要经济体，日本正在为霍尔木兹海峡真正重新通航的可能性定价——油价回落直接改善贸易收支、缓解制造业投入成本压力。但今天更剧烈的波动在汇市：美元/日元重挫 3.82% 至 157.61，单日波动超过 6 日元，走势带有明显的财务省干预嫌疑——此前该汇率刚突破 160 关口上方，而财务省今年已多次在这一区域亮剑。日元走强通常会压制出口股盈利预期，但今日霍尔木兹缓和的买盘盖过了汇率逆风；芯片设备股也从上周"九州地震 + 科技股抛售"的双重打击中反弹。后续关注官方是否确认干预——若为非冲销式买日元操作，将在边际上收紧国内流动性。

香港 #

Hong Kong was the laggard of the region. The HSI, which closed Monday up 0.48% at 26,009.40, traded about 0.49% lower by midday, decoupling from the North Asian melt-up. The drag was concentrated in financials: mainland bank heavyweights sold off in both Hong Kong and onshore sessions, with the big-four state banks dropping more than 3% in A-share trading — a rotation out of defensive dividend names as risk appetite rotated into growth. The HSCEI told a different story, up 1.69% to 8,578.54, reflecting strength in tech and industrial heavyweights. Southbound flows stayed constructive: Stock Connect investors net-bought about 741 million yuan via the Shanghai leg and 1.32 billion yuan via the Shenzhen leg by midday, continuing the pattern of mainland money buying Hong Kong dips. The city’s beta to the Iran story is lower than Tokyo or Seoul’s; what matters more here is whether A-share growth-stock momentum spills over.

港股是今日区内落后者。恒指周一收涨 0.48% 报 26,009.40 点后，今日午盘回吐约 0.49%，与北亚的普涨脱钩。拖累集中在金融板块：内银权重股在港股与 A 股同步遭遇抛售，工农中建四大行 A 股盘中均跌超 3%——这是风险偏好从防御型红利股向成长股轮动时的典型资金迁移。恒生国企指数则是另一番景象，上涨 1.69% 至 8,578.54，反映科技与工业权重股的强势。南向资金保持建设性：港股通（沪）净买入约 7.41 亿元、港股通（深）净买入约 13.20 亿元，合计逾 20 亿元，延续内地资金逢低买入港股的惯性。港股对伊朗事件的贝塔低于东京和首尔，这里更关键的变量是 A 股成长股的动能能否外溢。

中国 #

Onshore markets split along style lines. The Shanghai Composite was up just 0.16% at 3,815.59 by midday, but the Shenzhen Component jumped 2.74% to 13,817.39 and the ChiNext ripped 4.83% in the morning session — a violent momentum reversal after Monday’s tech-led slide that saw the STAR 50 drop 5.08%. The catalyst stack: the Iran de-escalation lifted global risk appetite, and NVIDIA’s confirmation that CPO (co-packaged optics) has entered mass production lit a fire under the optical module and PCB complex — Dongshan Precision(002384) sealed its limit-up. Electronic components, electronic chemicals and communication equipment led sector gains. The flip side was financials: banks, insurers and airlines sat at the bottom of the board, with the big-four banks all down over 3%, as money rotated out of the dividend trade into high-beta growth. Northbound net-buy data was not yet published at midday; turnover and breadth (roughly 2,260 advancers vs 1,160 decliners across both connects) point to a genuine risk-on session rather than index-window dressing.

A 股早盘风格剧烈分化。上证综指午盘仅微涨 0.16% 报 3,815.59 点，但深证成指大涨 2.74% 至 13,817.39 点，创业板指半日飙升 4.83%——在周一科技股领跌（科创 50 跌 5.08%）之后出现猛烈的动能反转（momentum reversal）。催化因素叠加：伊朗局势缓和提振全球风险偏好；英伟达确认 CPO（共封装光学）进入量产，点燃光模块与 PCB 产业链，东山精密(002384)回封涨停。元件、电子化学品、通信设备领涨行业板块。另一面是金融股：银行、保险、机场航运垫底，四大行均跌超 3%，资金从红利交易撤向高贝塔成长股。北向资金净买入数据午盘尚未公布；从涨跌家数看（陆股通口径约 2,260 家上涨对 1,160 家下跌），今天是实打实的风险偏好修复，而非指数粉饰。

其他亚太市场 #

印尼 (+3.05%) 是东南亚今日的最大亮点。作为石油净进口国，雅加达对霍尔木兹风险的敏感度在亚洲仅次于日韩，油价从 90 美元上方回落至 81 美元直接改善其经常账户预期与燃油补贴财政压力，外资对印尼债市和股市的配置同步回暖。澳大利亚 (+2.09%) 的上涨逻辑略有不同：通胀温和意味着央行加息压力缓解，叠加铁矿与能源股在"霍尔木兹若复航、全球贸易流正常化"预期下的估值修复。印度 SENSEX +1.51% 跟随全球释然行情，但涨幅落后于北亚——印度同时承受对俄油贸易的二级关税关注，反弹相对克制。

资金流向 #

南向资金 #

• 港股通（沪）：净买入 +7.41 亿元
• 港股通（深）：净买入 +13.20 亿元
• 合计约 +20.61 亿元，延续内资逢低增配港股科技与高股息的双线操作。

北向资金 #

• 沪股通/深股通净买入数据午盘尚未公布（数据源显示为 0，属未更新状态而非真实零成交）。从陆股通涨跌家数看（沪股通 942 涨 / 657 跌，深股通 1,320 涨 / 502 跌），深市广度显著强于沪市，与今日成长风格占优一致。

汇率与宏观 #

值得注意的组合：油价大跌 + 美元持平 + 日元独升近 4%，指向这不是一轮广泛的美元走软，而是日元单边事件（疑似干预）叠加亚洲货币的风险偏好修复（韩元 -1.53%、人民币 -0.23%）。黄金在 $4,112 高位仅小幅波动，说明避险头寸并未大规模撤离——市场对"协议近在咫尺"的定价仍留有余地。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡（本周核心变量） #

English: The script flipped over the weekend. Trump cancelled a planned strike he described as “the biggest attack since World War II” after Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Iran itself asked for diplomacy, claiming the “parameters of a deal” are agreed: immediate, complete and total reopening of the Strait of Hormuz plus an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. The naval blockade stays in force until signature. Iran’s FM Araghchi says Hormuz talks with Oman are in “final stages,” with a split-lane compromise on the table (inbound via the Iranian side, outbound via Oman). But Tehran’s foreign ministry also insists the strait “will in no way return to the status before February 28,” and IRGC-linked media deny any MoU text is approved. Live fire continues at the margin: Kuwait intercepted Iranian drones on Aug 1, and two tankers were attacked near Oman on Jul 31 / Aug 1. Negotiations resumed Monday — this is now a headline-driven tape.

中文：周末剧本反转。特朗普在沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔及伊朗方面的请求下，叫停了他自称"二战以来最大规模"的空袭计划，称协议"框架已达成"：立即、完全、彻底重开霍尔木兹海峡 + 终结伊朗核威胁。海上封锁在协议签署前维持不变。伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示与阿曼的海峡谈判进入"最后阶段"，桌上有"分道通航"方案（进港走伊朗一侧、出港走阿曼一侧）。但伊朗外交部同时坚称海峡"绝不会回到 2 月 28 日之前的状态"，革命卫队系媒体否认任何谅解备忘录文本已获批准。边际冲突仍在：科威特 8 月 1 日拦截伊朗无人机，7 月 31 日与 8 月 1 日各有一艘油轮在阿曼附近遇袭。谈判已于周一重启——盘面完全由头条新闻驱动。

关键时间节点：本周美伊谈判逐日进展；若 60 天临时停火框架签署，下一个节点是核问题的最终协议期限；伊朗-阿曼海峡安排文本落地（阿拉格齐称"最后阶段"）。

2. 俄乌战争（背景变量，低烈度影响） #

English: The war grinds on as attrition. Russia’s summer offensive has stalled — June territorial gains collapsed 94% year-on-year while Ukrainian deep strikes cut Russian refining runs to a 20-year low, with fuel rationing across half of Russia’s regions. No fresh market-moving development today; the conflict’s market channel runs mainly through European gas and defense spending, both currently priced.

中文：战事仍以消耗战为主。俄军夏季攻势陷入停滞——6 月占领面积同比萎缩 94%，乌克兰纵深打击将俄炼油开工压至 20 年低点，俄过半联邦主体实行燃料配给。今日无新的市场级事件；该冲突对市场的影响通道主要是欧洲天然气与军费开支，目前均已充分定价。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

English: The tariff regime keeps rotating. The global 10% Section 122 tariff is in force; the Section 301 forced-labor tariffs (10–12.5% on 60 countries) took effect July 24; and the 100% tariff on patented pharmaceuticals kicked in July 31 for large companies. The next hard date: Section 338 tariffs of 50% on certain Canadian goods (dairy, alcohol, vehicles) take effect August 19 — the first-ever use of that statute, with no built-in expiry.

中文：关税体系持续轮动。全球 10% 的 122 条款关税执行中；301 条款强迫劳动关税（对 60 国征 10–12.5%）已于 7 月 24 日生效；专利药 100% 关税 7 月 31 日起对大型药企生效。下一个硬日期：依据 338 条款对加拿大部分商品（乳制品、酒类、汽车）征收 50% 关税将于 8 月 19 日生效——这是该法条史上首次动用，且无内置到期条款。

专家研判 #

相对受益方向（未来 2-4 周）：

1. 亚洲半导体/AI 硬件 — 台积电(2330)、三星电子(005930)：地缘尾部风险下降 + AI 资本开支主线未破坏，回调即是外资买点。
2. 航空与旅游 — 燃油成本下行周期开启，弹性最大的利润修复交易。
3. CPO/光模块产业链 — 东山精密(002384) 等：英伟达量产官宣给了独立于地缘的产业催化。
4. 印尼/印度等石油进口新兴市场 — 油价回落直接改善双赤字预期。
5. 必需消费/零售 — 输入型通胀降温，居民实际购买力修复。

需要回避方向：

1. 油气上游与油服 — 若协议签署，WTI 有向 70 美元区间回归的路径，上游利润预期需下修。
2. 油运（VLCC） — 复航挤掉战争运价溢价，且前期涨幅已透支。
3. 纯防御型高股息（内银） — 今日四大行跌超 3% 说明资金正在系统性撤出红利交易，风格切换未走完前不要接刀。
4. 专利药出口链 — 100% 关税已生效，基本面冲击将逐季体现在财报中。

情景分析（下一个关键节点：本周美伊谈判结果）

• 情景 A：框架签署、海峡分阶段复航（概率约 45%） — WTI 下探 75-78 美元，全球股市释然性第二波，日经/台股再创新高，油运与油气上游加速出清。
• 情景 B：谈判拖延、边打边谈（概率约 40%） — 油价 80-88 美元区间震荡，股市高位震荡，今日涨幅部分回吐，日元干预疑云继续发酵。
• 情景 C：谈判破裂、美军重启打击（概率约 15%） — 油价单日 +10% 以上，VIX 飙升，台股今日涨幅大半抹掉，黄金冲击新高，重演 6 月剧本。

关键主题 #

• 伊朗"准停火"定价：市场开始为霍尔木兹复航定价，但协议未签、边际冲突不断，今日的释然性反弹仍带脆弱性。
• 台股单日 +7.84%：台积电权重 44% 的指数结构把全球 AI 风险偏好放大成历史级涨幅，超买信号明确。
• 日元急升近 4%：疑似财务省在 160 上方干预，汇率单边事件与风险偏好修复并存，出口股盈利预期面临重估。
• A 股风格暴力切换：创业板半日 +4.83% 对四大行跌超 3%，红利交易资金向 CPO/光模块等高贝塔成长迁移。
• 油价中枢下移交易启动：WTI 回落至 81 美元，油气上游与油运的风险溢价出清才刚刚开始。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。