亚洲午盘 — 2026-08-03

市场概览 #

亚洲市场周一午盘呈现剧烈分化。韩国 KOSPI 暴跌 7.15% 至 6,272.38 点，三星电子与 SK 海力士开盘再度跳水逾 8%，上周五 17.91% 的报复性反弹被迅速吞噬，单股杠杆 ETF 的强制再平衡继续放大双向波动；台股则接棒成为资金避风港，加权指数大涨 4.51% 至 43,478.58 点，台积电（2330) 延续上周五涨停动能。宏观层面两条主线主导定价：其一，特朗普周六叫停对伊朗的军事打击并宣称霍尔木兹协议"框架已定"，WTI 原油重挫 5.59% 至 79.74 美元；其二，美日上周五实施联合汇市干预，美元/日元暴跌 4.43% 至 156.52，日元急升压制日经出口股。避险情绪与弱美元共振下，黄金上涨 2.25% 至 4,125.40 美元，美元指数下跌 1.07% 至 99.72。

指数表现 #

⚠️ 数据说明：行情源记录日经225 为 +1.98%，但财新、investingLive 等多家媒体证实今日日经盘中大跌逾 1,200 点（日元急升拖累），涨跌方向以新闻交叉核实为准，本表按下跌列示。 * 恒生、沪深300、上证综指为 7月31日 收盘数据（akshare 源）；港股通盘中小数据显示恒指今日午盘约 +0.04%，上证综指约 -0.59%、深证成指约 -0.45%。

台湾 #

Taiwan was the region’s standout performer, with the TAIEX surging 4.51% to 43,478.58 — extending Friday’s historic session in which TSMC (2330) locked limit-up at NT$2,425 for its first limit-up touch in over a year and the benchmark added more than 3,200 points. Momentum remains firmly behind the AI foundry complex: TSMC’s weight in the index (approaching 40%) means the benchmark is effectively a leveraged expression of leading-edge capacity demand, and dip-buyers who missed Friday’s move are chasing exposure at the open. A marginally softer Taiwan dollar (USD/TWD +0.34% at 32.41) adds a tailwind for exporter earnings translation. With Korea’s semiconductor trade in freefall, Taiwan is the primary beneficiary of intra-Asia rotation — investors seeking AI hardware exposure without Seoul’s leverage overhang are consolidating into Taipei. The key risk to flag is concentration: when one stock drives the index, the same mechanism cuts both ways on any reversal.

台股是今日亚洲最强市场，加权指数大涨 4.51% 至 43,478.58 点，延续上周五的历史性行情——当日台积电（2330) 以 2,425 元锁死涨停，为逾一年首次盘中触及涨停，加权指数单日暴涨逾 3,200 点。AI 代工链的做多动能依然稳固：台积电在指数中的权重已接近 40%，加权指数实际上已成为先进制程产能需求的杠杆化表达，上周五踏空的资金今日开盘即追入。台币小幅走软（美元/台币 32.41，+0.34%）也为出口商的汇兑收益提供了边际助力。在韩国半导体交易崩盘的背景下，台股成为亚洲内部资金轮动的最大受益者——想保留 AI 硬件敞口、又不愿承担首尔杠杆风险的投资者正向台北集中。需要提示的风险同样是集中度：单一股票驱动指数的机制，在反转时也会双向放大。

韩国 #

The KOSPI collapsed 7.15% to 6,272.38, giving back a large chunk of Friday’s 17.91% melt-up in a single morning. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both gapped down more than 8% at the open, and the mechanical deleveraging loop that has defined this market since June reasserted itself: single-stock 2x leveraged ETFs tracking the two memory giants are forced to sell into weakness to rebalance, turning orderly profit-taking into a cascade. The Korea Exchange has already triggered 40 sidecars and 7 circuit breakers year-to-date, and today’s move will add to that tally. Context matters — the index is still up massively year-to-date after a parabolic first half, but the drawdown from the June 19 record of 9,385.59 now exceeds 33%, deep in bear-market territory. Record retail margin debt (₩37.7 trillion at the June peak) remains the accelerant: every forced liquidation feeds the next leg down.

Deep dive — why the crash keeps repeating: The structural problem is threefold. First, index concentration: Samsung and SK Hynix account for nearly half of KOSPI market cap, so the benchmark is a leveraged bet on HBM sentiment, not a diversified equity index. Second, the leveraged ETF complex: at its peak, three SK Hynix 2x ETFs alone managed over US$23 billion — more than 2.5x the stock’s average daily turnover — creating a “down → forced sell → further down” feedback loop that regulators’ July 16 measures (higher cash-only margins, 20-unit minimum trades, a freeze on new product listings) have only partially defused. Third, foreign flows: overseas investors have been systematic sellers into retail leverage, and while the won’s rebound today (USD/KRW -2.38% at 1,429.58, aided by the US-Japan joint intervention’s dollar-weakening spillover) removes one pressure point, positioning cleanup has further to run. Watch the 6,000 psychological level; a close below it would likely trigger another wave of retail margin calls and fresh regulatory response from the FSC.

韩国 KOSPI 午盘暴跌 7.15% 至 6,272.38 点，一个上午就吞掉了上周五 17.91% 报复性反弹的大部分涨幅。三星电子与 SK 海力士开盘双双跳水逾 8%，6 月以来主导这个市场的机械式去杠杆循环再度启动：挂钩两只存储巨头的单股 2 倍杠杆 ETF 被迫在下跌中卖出以完成再平衡，把有序的获利了结演变成连锁抛售。韩国交易所今年已触发 40 次 sidecar（程序化交易暂停）和 7 次熔断，今日注定再添记录。需要强调的是，经历上半年的抛物线上涨后，指数年内仍保有巨大涨幅，但相对 6 月 19 日 9,385.59 点的历史高点，回撤已超过 33%，深陷技术性熊市。创纪录的散户融资余额（6 月峰值 37.7 万亿韩元）仍是助燃剂：每一次强制平仓都为下一波下跌输送弹药。

拆解——为何暴跌反复上演： 结构性问题有三层。其一，指数集中度：三星与 SK 海力士合计占 KOSPI 市值近半，指数本质是对 HBM（高带宽内存）情绪的杠杆押注，而非分散化的股指。其二，杠杆 ETF 链条：高峰期仅 3 只 SK 海力士 2 倍 ETF 的管理规模就超过 230 亿美元，是其正股日均成交额的 2.5 倍以上，形成"下跌—强卖—再下跌"的负反馈；监管层 7 月 16 日的一揽子措施（保证金上调且只收现金、最小交易单位提至 20 份、暂停新产品上市）只部分拆除了引信。其三，外资流向：海外投资者持续向加杠杆的散户卖出，而今日韩元反弹（美元/韩元 1,429.58，-2.38%，受益于美日联合干预带来的美元走弱外溢）虽缓解了一个压力点，但仓位出清尚未走完。关注 6,000 点心理关口——若收盘跌破，可能触发新一轮散户追保与金管会的进一步政策回应。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 fell roughly 2% to around 63,598, with a more than 1,200-point intraday slide, as the yen’s surge became the dominant driver. USD/JPY plunged 4.43% to 156.52 after US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Tokyo confirmed Friday’s joint currency intervention — the first coordinated US-Japan yen-buying operation in decades — and vowed further action if needed. Japanese government bond yields hit record highs on rate-hike bets, tightening financial conditions at the same time as the currency squeeze hits exporter earnings. Every big figure of yen strength mechanically compresses the overseas-revenue translation of the index’s auto and electronics heavyweights, and systematic funds are de-grossing Japanese equity exposure in response. Fundamentals are not the problem — July manufacturing output grew at its fastest pace in 12.5 years — but right now the FX tape is the only tape that matters. Interventions historically buy time rather than reverse trends; watch whether 155 holds as support and whether the Ministry of Finance follows up with unilateral action.

日经225 午盘下跌约 2% 至 63,598 附近，盘中跌逾 1,200 点，日元急升成为压倒性驱动。在美国财长贝森特与日本财务省确认上周五实施联合汇市干预——数十年来首次美日协同买入日元——并誓言必要时进一步行动之后，美元/日元暴跌 4.43% 至 156.52。加息预期推动下，日本国债收益率创出历史新高，汇率升值挤压出口商盈利的同时，金融条件也在收紧。日元每升值一个整数关口，指数中汽车与电子权重股的海外收入折算就被机械压缩，系统化基金正在削减日本股票的总敞口。基本面并非问题所在——7 月制造业产出增速创 12 年半最快——但眼下汇率走势就是唯一重要的盘面。历史经验显示，干预赢得的是时间而非趋势反转；关注 155 一线能否形成支撑，以及财务省是否会追加单边行动。

香港 #

Hong Kong traded quietly against the regional storm. The Hang Seng Index was roughly flat at midday (+0.04% per Stock Connect data), with the prior close at 25,884.43, while the HSCEI’s last print showed +3.08% at 8,622.93. Southbound flows remain the marginal price-setter: mainland investors net-bought HK$4.47 billion via the two Connect channels this morning, continuing the year-long pattern of onshore money absorbing offshore supply. The real Hong Kong story today is derivative rather than directional — the CSOP 2x leveraged products tracking SK Hynix and Samsung (“XL二南方海力士”, “XL二南三星”), which surged 67.67% and 49.25% on Friday to top the city’s fund leaderboard, are unwinding violently with Seoul this morning; the Hynix product had already fallen more than 80% from its June 25 peak before Friday’s bounce. The episode is a case study in how leveraged single-stock vehicles transmit Korea’s retail leverage problem directly into Hong Kong’s fund market.

港股在地区风暴中表现平静。恒指午盘基本持平（港股通盘中小数据约 +0.04%），前收 25,884.43 点；恒生国企指数最新数据为 +3.08% 报 8,622.93 点。南向资金仍是边际定价者：内地投资者今日上午经两条港股通渠道净买入约 44.75 亿港元，延续全年"在岸资金承接离岸抛盘"的格局。今天香港真正的故事在衍生品而非方向——南方东英旗下挂钩 SK 海力士与三星的 2 倍杠杆产品（“XL二南方海力士"“XL二南三星”）上周五分别暴涨 67.67% 和 49.25% 登顶全港公募基金涨幅榜，今晨正随首尔同步剧烈回吐；其中海力士产品在周五反弹前已较 6 月 25 日高点累跌逾 80%。这一轮行情堪称教科书案例：单股杠杆工具如何把韩国的散户杠杆问题直接传导进香港基金市场。

中国 #

Mainland equities were modestly lower at midday — the Shanghai Composite off around 0.59% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.45% intraday, against Friday closes of 3,832.26 and 13,578.93 respectively — as a soft PMI print offset the tailwind from cheaper oil. The RatingDog (Caixin) manufacturing PMI eased to 50.9 in July (consensus 51.5, prior 51.7), an eighth consecutive month of expansion but with momentum clearly fading. Beijing signalled over the weekend it will accelerate existing infrastructure spending rather than roll out new stimulus, disappointing those positioned for a bigger policy put. The PBOC set the daily fix at 6.7898, weaker than the market estimate of 6.7364, though spot yuan firmed to 6.75 (-0.19%) as broad dollar weakness dominated. Breadth was actually positive — advancing stocks outnumbered decliners roughly 2-to-1 on both Connect boards — suggesting the index weakness is concentrated in heavyweights rather than a broad risk-off. For A-shares, the Hormuz de-escalation is unambiguously positive: China is the largest beneficiary of lower crude among major economies, and the 5.59% WTI drop feeds directly into the terms-of-trade.

A 股午盘小幅走弱——上证综指盘中跌约 0.59%，深证成指跌 0.45%（上周五收盘分别为 3,832.26 和 13,578.93 点）——疲软的 PMI 数据抵消了油价下跌的利好。7 月财新（RatingDog）制造业 PMI 回落至 50.9（预期 51.5，前值 51.7），虽为连续第八个月扩张，但动能明显衰减。周末政策层释放的信号是加快既有基建支出落地、而非推出新增刺激，令押注更强政策托底的资金失望。人民银行今日中间价定在 6.7898，弱于市场预期的 6.7364，不过在美元整体走弱主导下，在岸人民币即期反而升至 6.75（-0.19%）。市场广度其实偏暖——沪深两条通渠道上涨家数约为下跌家数的 2 倍——说明指数走弱集中在权重股，而非全面避险。对 A 股而言，霍尔木兹局势降温是明确利好：中国是主要经济体中低油价的最大受益者，WTI 单日 5.59% 的跌幅将直接改善贸易条件。

其他亚太市场 #

印度是今日除台股外的最大亮点。 SENSEX 大涨 2.43% 至 78,628.94 点，逻辑直白：油价暴跌 5.59% 对全球第三大原油进口国是最直接的宏观红利——输入性通胀压力缓解、经常账户预期改善、央行政策空间打开。路透调查显示，市场预期印度央行本周将按兵不动，通胀持续处于舒适区间，“油价跌 + 利率稳"的组合对印度权益资产近乎理想。

印尼同步走强（+1.51%）， 同样受益于一篮子商品价格的再定价与美元走弱（美元指数 -1.07%）带来的新兴市场资金回流。澳洲 ASX 200 上涨 0.79%，制造业 PMI 升至 52.0、产出恢复增长提供了基本面支撑。整体看，今日亚太的联动逻辑清晰：油价下跌利好进口国（印度、东盟）、利空有限，而汇率波动才是日、韩两个出口导向市场分化的核心变量。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

沪股通、深股通今日净买入数据均为 0（数据源未披露实时净额）。盘面参考：沪股通标的上涨 1,017 家 / 下跌 578 家，深股通上涨 1,257 家 / 下跌 574 家，广度偏暖，指数走弱主要受权重股拖累。

南向资金 #

内地资金继续净买入港股：港股通（沪）净买入 14.24 亿港元，港股通（深）净买入 30.51 亿港元，合计约 44.75 亿港元。在恒指基本平盘的背景下，南向资金连续承接是港股在地区动荡中维持韧性的关键力量。

汇率与宏观 #

* 美债收益率数据日期为 8月1日。

两条宏观主线：一是美日联合干预令美元/日元单日暴跌 4.43%，并外溢至整个美元体系（美元指数 -1.07%）；二是特朗普叫停对伊打击令 WTI 重挫 5.59%，OPEC+ 周末还同意 9 月增产 18.8 万桶/日、完成 2023 年减产的全部回滚，供给端双重利空。黄金在"弱美元 + 地缘未了 + 干预引发的储备多元化讨论"三重支撑下上涨 2.25%，UBS 更是给出 2027 年 6 月 5,200 美元的目标价。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 —— 从战争边缘到"框架协议” #

EN: The weekend’s whiplash defined today’s commodity tape. On Friday, US embassies in Iraq, Jordan and the UAE issued evacuation warnings and Brent touched $90.12; by Saturday, Trump posted that he had cancelled planned strikes on Iran because “the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to,” naming his terms as the “Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.” The naval blockade remains in full force until a transaction is finalized. A Qatari/US-brokered “split-lane” compromise is on the table — ships enter the Gulf on the Iranian-controlled side and exit via the Omani side — though Tehran’s military sources publicly called Trump’s account “a new lie,” and two more tanker incidents were logged by UKMTO on July 31/August 1. Denuclearisation talks are slated to begin tomorrow.

中文： 周末的急速反转定义了今日商品盘面。周五美国驻伊拉克、约旦、阿联酋使馆还在发布撤离警告、布伦特触及 90.12 美元；周六特朗普即发帖称因"协议框架已定"而取消对伊打击，开出的条件是"立即、完全、彻底开放霍尔木兹海峡，并终结伊朗核威胁”。海军封锁在交易最终敲定前保持全面有效。卡塔尔与美国斡旋的"分道通航"方案已在桌面——船只从伊朗控制一侧进湾、从阿曼一侧出湾——但德黑兰军方消息人士公开称特朗普的说法是"新谎言"，且 7 月 31 日/8 月 1 日英国海事贸易组织（UKMTO）又记录了两起油轮遇袭事件。去核化谈判定于明日启动。

关键时间节点： 去核化谈判启动（8月4日，明日）；60 天谈判窗口到期（约 10 月初）；OPEC+ 9 月增产落地。

2. 俄乌战争 —— 制裁常态化，战场僵持 #

EN: The conflict has settled into institutional attrition. The EU extended its economic sanctions on Russia for a full 12 months to July 31, 2027, and is operating a “rolling” sanctions model — a mini-package in June plus the 21st comprehensive package under discussion. On the legal front, Euroclear’s cassation appeal against a RUB 26.8 billion judgment in the Sberbank frozen-assets dispute will be heard in Moscow on August 5 — a test case for the hundreds of billions in immobilized Russian reserves. Washington continues to signal openness to a negotiated settlement, with OFAC extending Sakhalin-2 and civil-nuclear general licenses through December 18, 2026.

中文： 冲突已进入制度化消耗阶段。欧盟将对俄经济制裁一次性延长 12 个月至 2027 年 7 月 31 日，并转向"滚动式"制裁模式——6 月通过小型制裁包，第 21 轮综合制裁包仍在讨论。法律战线上，Euroclear 就 Sberbank 冻结资产纠纷中 268 亿卢布判决提起的上诉将于 8 月 5 日在莫斯科开庭——这是数千亿美元被冻结俄罗斯储备处置路径的风向标案件。华盛顿持续释放谈判解决信号，OFAC 将萨哈林 2 号与民用核电项目的通用许可延长至 2026 年 12 月 18 日。

关键时间节点： Euroclear 上诉听证（8月5日，后天）；OFAC 通用许可到期（12月18日）。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 —— Section 122 谢幕，301 全面接棒 #

EN: The tariff regime rotated on July 24: the 10% Section 122 universal surcharge expired by operation of law and was immediately replaced by Section 301 “forced-labor” tariffs of 10–12.5% covering 60 economies — roughly 99.4% of US imports. The EU, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Switzerland face a “net-of-MFN” top-up structure, while a separate 50% Section 338 action on ~US$20 billion of Canadian goods takes effect around August 19. For Asia’s exporters the headline rate continuity masks a stacking problem: the new 301 duties layer on top of existing China 301 lists and Section 232 metals tariffs. USTR’s “excess capacity” investigation remains the next shoe to drop, with further duties possible later this year.

中文： 关税机制于 7 月 24 日完成轮换：10% 的 Section 122 普遍附加税依法到期，随即被针对 60 个经济体、税率 10–12.5% 的 Section 301"强迫劳动"关税无缝替代——覆盖约 99.4% 的美国进口。欧盟、台湾、日本、韩国、瑞士适用"扣除最惠国税率后补足"的差异化结构，另有针对约 200 亿美元加拿大商品的 50% Section 338 关税将于 8 月 19 日前后生效。对亚洲出口商而言，税率数字的连续性掩盖了叠加问题：新 301 关税将与既有对华 301 清单和 232 金属关税层层累加。USTR 的"产能过剩"调查是下一只未落的靴子，年内可能追加关税。

关键时间节点： 加拿大 Section 338 关税生效（约 8月19日）；USTR"产能过剩"调查后续动作（四季度窗口）。

专家研判 #

相对受益方向：

1. 原油进口国消费链（印度/东盟航空、炼化、物流）——油价中枢下移的最直接受益者；代表：InterGlobe Aviation、荣盛石化、S-Oil
2. 台湾半导体代工——韩国杠杆出清期间，AI 硬件敞口向台积电集中；代表：台积电（2330)、日月光（3711)
3. 黄金及贵金属矿商——弱美元+干预时代储备多元化+地缘尾部风险三支撑；代表：紫金矿业、Newmont
4. 日本内需/金融——日元升值与加息周期利好银行息差与进口购买力；代表：三菱UFJ、瑞穗
5. 印度内需蓝筹——油价红利+央行按兵不动的黄金组合；代表：HDFC Bank、信实工业

需要回避方向：

1. 韩国单股杠杆 ETF 及挂钩产品（含香港 XL 系列）——强制再平衡负反馈未解除，双向收割
2. 油轮/上游油气——战争溢价消退+复航预期，运价与油价双重回落
3. 对美出口敞口高的日/韩汽车电子——301 补足税+日元/韩元升值的双重利润率挤压
4. 高杠杆散户拥挤的 KOSPI 权重股——6,000 点若破，追保螺旋将再来一轮

情景分析（霍尔木兹 60 天窗口，至 10 月初）：

关键主题 #

• 韩股去杠杆螺旋: KOSPI -7.15% 证明 7 月 16 日监管措施未拆除杠杆 ETF 引信，6,000 点关口决定下一轮政策强度。
• 美日联合干预: 数十年来首次协同买日元，美元/日元单日 -4.43%，标志着汇率政策进入"干预常态化"时代，亚洲出口股定价逻辑生变。
• 霍尔木兹急转弯: 从撤离警告到取消打击仅隔一日，油价 -5.59% 重定价战争溢价，但德黑兰否认与油轮遇袭提醒市场：协议尚未签署。
• 台韩半导体跷跷板: 同为 AI 存储/代工叙事，资金在首尔杠杆出清期向台北集中，台积电权重化驱动台股 +4.51%。
• 油价红利再分配: 印度 +2.43%、印尼 +1.51% 领涨进口国阵营，OPEC+ 增产落地后，低油价交易从事件驱动转向趋势配置。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。