亚洲午盘 — 2026-07-29

市场概览 #

亚洲市场今日剧烈分化：中国存储芯片制造商长鑫存储(CXMT)在科创板上市首日暴涨466%的余波，叠加中国国资企业量产浸没式DUV光刻设备的消息，引发全球存储与半导体设备板块恐慌性抛售。KOSPI午盘暴跌11.94%至5,304.50，为连续第二个交易日出现两位数跌幅，本月累计跌幅已逼近30%；台股与日经分别下挫4.67%和2.84%。另一边，恒生指数逆势上涨1.37%，市场正将"中国芯片自主化"从风险重估为港股/A股的题材利好。宏观面上，美伊连续多日停火、调停人推动双方重返谈判，WTI原油单日崩跌7.65%至82.48美元。

指数表现 #

台湾 #

The Taiex slumped 4.67% to 39,661.29 at midday, surrendering nearly 2,000 points in a broad de-grossing of semiconductor exposure. The index opened above 41,698 before sellers took control, with the intraday range of over 2,200 points underscoring the violence of the momentum reversal. TSMC extended losses as investors reassessed foundry pricing power in a world where Chinese memory capacity is scaling faster than expected. The read-through from Seoul was direct: if CXMT’s IPO proceeds and state-backed lithography progress accelerate Chinese memory self-sufficiency, the entire North Asia tech complex faces multiple compression. USD/TWD held steady at 32.42, suggesting the selling is equity-specific rather than a broad capital flight.

台股加权指数午盘重挫4.67%至39,661.29点，单日蒸发近2,000点，半导体仓位遭遇全面降杠杆（de-grossing）。指数早盘一度开在41,698点上方，随后卖压接管盘面，盘中波动超过2,200点，凸显本轮动量逆转的剧烈程度。台积电延续跌势——投资者正在重新评估一个中国存储产能超预期扩张的世界中，代工厂的定价权还能维持多久。首尔暴跌的传导逻辑很直接：如果CXMT的IPO募资加上国资光刻设备的突破让中国存储自主化提速，整个东北亚科技板块都将面临估值倍数压缩。美元/台币稳定在32.42，说明抛售集中在股票层面，尚未演变为全面资金外逃。

韩国 #

The Kospi cratered 11.94% to 5,304.50 by midday — a second consecutive double-digit collapse following Tuesday’s 10.84% rout, its worst two-day stretch since the Iran war breakout in March. The index has now shed roughly 42% from its June peak of 9,114.55, with July alone on track to exceed the record monthly fall of 27% set in October 1997. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix — which together account for more than half of index weight — again led the decline, with SK Hynix’s New York ADRs having broken below their IPO price. Yesterday foreigners dumped a net 5 trillion won of stock while retail bought 4 trillion won, a classic capitulation-vs-dip-buying standoff. Korea’s top financial regulator said it would consider capping retail investment in single-stock leveraged ETFs, which have amplified volatility since their May debut. Notably, USD/KRW fell 2.06% to 1,445.28 — the won’s sharp rebound points to suspected FX authorities’ smoothing operations to prevent a currency-equity doom loop.

Deep dive: This is no longer a correction; it is a structural repricing of Korean memory hegemony. Three catalysts converged: (1) CXMT’s 466% IPO pop and $8.6B raise gives China’s DRAM champion a war chest for capacity expansion; (2) reports that a Chinese state-backed firm has begun producing immersion DUV lithography tools undermine the assumption that export controls would freeze Chinese capability at legacy nodes; (3) positioning was extremely crowded after SK Hynix’s $29B Nasdaq ADR listing and Samsung’s record 89.4 trillion won Q2 guidance — a “sell the news” dynamic was loaded. Watch 5,300 as the line in the sand; a close below opens a technical vacuum toward 5,000. Thursday’s Samsung and SK Hynix earnings calls are now the single most important event for global semis this week — any softness in HBM4 pricing commentary will validate the bears.

韩国综合指数午盘崩跌11.94%至5,304.50点——继周二暴跌10.84%之后连续第二个交易日出现两位数跌幅，为3月伊朗战争爆发以来最惨的两日行情。指数较6月高点9,114.55已回撤约42%，7月单月跌幅即将超越1997年10月创下的27%历史纪录。合计占指数权重过半的三星电子与SK海力士再度领跌，SK海力士的纽约ADR已跌破发行价。昨日外资净卖出5万亿韩元，散户净买入4万亿韩元——典型的"恐慌抛售对垒抄底"僵局。韩国最高金融监管机构表示，将考虑限制散户投资单一个股杠杆ETF（该类产品5月推出以来持续放大波动）。值得注意的是，美元/韩元下跌2.06%至1,445.28——韩元大幅反弹指向外汇当局疑似入场平滑操作，以防止"汇率-股市"恶性循环。

深度分析： 这已经不是回调，而是对韩国存储霸主地位的结构性重定价。三重催化共振：(1) CXMT上市首日暴涨466%、募资86亿美元，为中国DRAM龙头提供了扩产弹药；(2) 中国国资企业开始量产浸没式DUV光刻设备的报道，动摇了"出口管制能将中国锁定在成熟制程"的核心假设；(3) 在SK海力士290亿美元纳斯达克ADR上市、三星给出创纪录的89.4万亿韩元二季度业绩指引之后，市场仓位极度拥挤——“利好出尽"的抛售早已上膛。5,300点是多头防线，若收盘失守，技术上将打开跌向5,000点的真空区。周四三星与SK海力士的财报电话会已成为本周全球半导体最重要的事件——HBM4定价指引中任何一丝疲软，都将为空头盖章。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 dropped 2.84% to 60,595.81, holding up better than Seoul and Taipei but still caught in the regional semi downdraft. Tokyo Electron, Advantest and other equipment names bore the brunt: China’s indigenous immersion DUV progress directly threatens the installed-base economics of Japanese tool vendors, who have been the biggest beneficiaries of the China mature-node capex boom. The yen was little moved at 163.52 per dollar, depriving exporters of any currency cushion. Defensive domestic demand names and banks outperformed on a relative basis as breadth skewed negative.

日经225指数午盘下跌2.84%至60,595.81点，表现好于首尔和台北，但仍被卷入区域半导体下跌潮。东京电子、爱德万测试等设备股首当其冲：中国自研浸没式DUV光刻的突破直接威胁日本设备商的装机存量经济学——后者恰恰是中国成熟制程扩产潮的最大受益者。日元维持在163.52附近几乎没有波动，出口股得不到汇率缓冲。防御性内需股与银行相对抗跌，市场宽度（breadth）明显偏空。

香港 #

The Hang Seng Index bucked the regional rout, climbing 1.37% to 25,657.66, with the HSCEI up an even stronger 1.79% at 8,587.23. The market is actively rotating into the “China chip self-sufficiency” trade: what is an existential threat to Samsung and SK Hynix is a re-rating catalyst for mainland semiconductor champions listed in Hong Kong. CXMT’s blockbuster STAR debut validated both the demand and the policy backing behind the sector. Interesting divergence in flows, however: southbound investors were net sellers of roughly HK$35.7 billion via the Shanghai leg and HK$9.0 billion via Shenzhen, suggesting mainland accounts are taking profits into strength even as the index rallies.

恒生指数逆势上涨1.37%至25,657.66点，恒生国企指数涨幅更大，达1.79%报8,587.23点。资金正在主动切换进"中国芯片自主化"交易：对三星和SK海力士而言的生存威胁，对在港上市的内地半导体龙头却是估值重估的催化剂。CXMT科创板的爆炸性首秀，同时验证了该赛道的需求与政策背书。但资金流出现耐人寻味的背离：南向资金港股通（沪）净卖出约35.7亿港元、港股通（深）净卖出约9.0亿港元——指数上涨之际，内地账户似乎在逢高兑现。

中国 #

Onshore benchmarks were comparatively calm: the CSI 300 slipped 0.24% to 4,558.37 and the Shanghai Composite lost 0.53% to 3,793.18. The CXMT halo did not lift the broad tape, and sector money flows tell a nuanced story — profit-taking hit semiconductors (-4.84B), electronics (-3.57B) and digital chip design (-3.26B) after their strong run, while autos (+3.7B), food & beverage (+3.63B) and gaming (+3.03B) attracted rotation inflows. The signal: domestic funds view the chip self-sufficiency theme as crowded short-term and are rotating into laggard consumption names rather than chasing. Northbound flow data printed flat, with turnover concentrated onshore.

A股大盘相对平静：沪深300微跌0.24%至4,558.37点，上证综指跌0.53%至3,793.18点。CXMT的光环比想象中更聚焦，未能带动大盘。行业资金流向透露了微妙信号——前期强势的半导体（-4.84亿）、电子（-3.57亿）、数字芯片设计（-3.26亿）遭遇获利了结，而乘用车（+3.7亿）、食品饮料（+3.63亿）、游戏（+3.03亿）获得轮动流入。含义很清楚：内资认为芯片自主化题材短线已经拥挤，选择轮入滞涨的消费股而非追高。北向资金数据持平，成交集中在场内。

其他亚太市场 #

印度SENSEX上涨1.04%成为亚太非东北亚市场的领头羊：油价暴跌7.65%对原油净进口国是直接利好，叠加财报季中IT权重股业绩稳健，外资继续将印度视为东北亚半导体动荡的"避风港替代品”。澳洲ASX 200涨0.96%，矿业与能源股受益于中东供应中断的尾部风险定价仍在（霍尔木兹通行量仅为战前15%），即便油价回落，资源股的盈利预期并未同步下修。泰国SET跌1.21%垫底，区域风险偏好收缩下外资持续流出东盟边缘市场。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

沪股通、深股通净买入数据今日为零值（数据源异常或暂停披露），从指数宽度看，沪股通标的1,046家上涨/577家下跌，深股通1,100家上涨/743家下跌，场内情绪并不差，与指数的窄幅回调形成背离。

南向资金 #

港股通（沪）净卖出35.73亿港元，港股通（深）净卖出9.03亿港元，合计净卖出约44.8亿港元——恒指大涨1.37%的背景下，内地资金选择了逢高获利了结，值得警惕后续动能。

汇率与宏观 #

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

English: The de-escalation is now the market’s base case. The U.S. and Iran have refrained from strikes for multiple consecutive days — a sharp contrast to mid-July, when CENTCOM conducted ten consecutive nights of strikes and tankers Kavomaleas and Kaifan were hit inside the U.S.-coordinated southern corridor. Regional mediators report concrete progress in getting both sides back to the negotiating table. WTI cratered 7.65% to $82.48, unwinding a large chunk of the war premium, though Hormuz transit volumes remain near 15% of pre-war levels and the Houthi-declared blockade on Saudi Red Sea routes is still technically in force. The market is pricing “talks resume” but not yet “strait reopens.”

中文： 降级已成为市场基准情形。美伊已连续多日互相停火——与7月中旬CENTCOM连续十夜空袭、Kavomaleas号和Kaifan号油轮在美军协调的南线走廊内遇袭形成鲜明对比。地区调停人报告在推动双方重返谈判桌方面取得实质进展。WTI单日崩跌7.65%至82.48美元，大幅回吐战争溢价；但需注意霍尔木兹通行量仍仅为战前约15%，胡塞武装对沙特红海航线的封锁名义上仍然生效。市场定价的是"谈判重启"，尚未定价"海峡复航"。

关键时间节点： 美伊正式谈判重启日期（调停方称"数日內"）；伊朗议会《霍尔木兹海峡安全法案》后续表决。

2. 俄乌战争 #

English: The immediate catalyst is procedural but market-relevant: the EU’s sectoral sanctions on Russia expire July 31 — two days from now — and renewal requires unanimity. A 20th sanctions package was approved in April, and the €90B Ukraine loan is already unlocked following the Druzhba pipeline restart, so renewal is the consensus expectation. Trump-Putin channel remains open; April’s call floated a Ukraine ceasefire concept that neither side has operationalized.

中文： 眼前的催化剂是程序性但有市场意义的：欧盟对俄行业制裁将于7月31日（两天后）到期，续期需要全体一致同意。第20轮制裁已于4月通过，900亿欧元援乌贷款在德鲁日巴管道复运后也已解冻，因此续期是共识预期。特朗普-普京沟通渠道保持开放，4月通话曾提出乌克兰停火构想，但双方均未落地执行。

关键时间节点： 7月31日欧盟制裁续期表决（一致同意制，匈牙利立场是变量）。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突（芯片战争） #

English: The semiconductor front of the trade war just escalated — from the Chinese side. CXMT’s $8.6B STAR IPO (466% first-day pop) plus reports of a state-backed firm producing immersion DUV lithography mark the moment markets stopped treating Chinese chip self-sufficiency as a 2030 story and started pricing it as a 2026-27 story. Meanwhile the U.S. framework remains a patchwork: H200 exports to China allowed under case-by-case licensing with a 25% tariff, annual fab licenses for TSMC/Samsung/SK Hynix China operations, and the January US-Taiwan deal tying tariff relief to $250B of US-bound investment. The competitive moat assumption underpinning Korean memory and Japanese equipment valuations is being repriced in real time.

中文： 贸易战的半导体前线刚刚升级——这次攻势来自中国一侧。CXMT科创板IPO募资86亿美元（首日+466%），加上国资企业量产浸没式DUV光刻设备的报道，标志着市场不再把"中国芯片自主化"当作2030年的故事，而是按2026-27年的时间表开始定价。美国方面的政策框架仍是拼布式：H200对华出口须逐案审批并加征25%关税；台积电/三星/SK海力士在华工厂改为年度许可制；1月的美台协议将关税减免与2,500亿美元对美投资绑定。支撑韩国存储与日本设备估值的"竞争护城河"假设，正在被实时重估。

关键时间节点： 7月31日三星电子、SK海力士二季度财报电话会（HBM4定价指引是全球半导体的本周焦点）。

专家研判 #

相对受益方向：

• 中国半导体自主化链：中芯国际(0981.HK)、华虹半导体(1347.HK)——题材+政策+资金三重共振
• 原油消费国资产：印度（SENSEX +1.04%已先行）、航空股——油价暴跌直接改善成本端
• 港股央企红利：中国移动、中海油服（防御性配置在波动市占优）
• A股消费轮动：食品饮料、乘用车（今日资金流入已确认轮动方向）
• 日本银行/内需：三菱UFJ——规避半导体敞口的相对价值选择

需要回避方向：

• 韩国存储双雄：财报前不确定性极高，散户杠杆ETF强制平仓风险未出清
• 日本半导体设备：中国自研光刻是中期叙事级别的利空，反弹是减仓机会
• 高位台系半导体：TAIEX两日振幅超5%，等待TSMC法说会指引再定方向
• 油气上游：战争溢价回吐路径未走完

情景分析（关键节点：7月31日三星/SK海力士财报 + 美伊谈判重启）：

• 情景A（概率45%）：业绩符合预期+谈判重启——韩股技术性反弹5-8%，油价下探78-80美元，全球半导体波动率回落但估值中枢已下移
• 情景B（概率35%）：业绩指引偏保守+谈判反复——KOSPI测试5,000点关口，半导体抛售向美欧扩散（关注费城半导体指数），油价80-85区间震荡
• 情景C（概率20%）：HBM4指引暴雷或谈判破裂——KOSPI单周再跌10%+触发第二轮回路器，油价重返90美元上方，黄金再创新高，全面risk-off

关键主题 #

• 韩国崩盘第二日: KOSPI连续两日双位数暴跌，本月跌幅超越1997年10月历史纪录，本质是"韩国存储霸权"的结构性重定价
• 中国芯片自主化从故事变为定价因子: CXMT上市+国产浸没式DUV量产，东北亚半导体估值逻辑正在被改写
• 美伊停火巩固、油价崩跌7.65%: 战争溢价大幅回吐，原油进口国（印度、日本）成为区域避风港
• 港股逆势走强但南向逢高卖出: 指数与资金流向背离，警惕反弹持续性
• 7月31日三重节点: 三星/SK海力士财报 + 欧盟对俄制裁续期同日落地，本周后半段波动率将维持高位

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。