亚洲午盘 — 2026-07-28

市场概览 #

这是一个会被写进年度复盘的上午。AI 半导体交易的"去杠杆风暴"在 7 月 28 日集中引爆北亚市场：KOSPI 午盘暴跌 9.98% 至 6,074.52 点，较上月纪录高点累计回撤已超过 30%，正式进入深度熊市；台湾加权指数重挫 6.42%，日经 225 大跌 5.94%。导火索是隔夜美股芯片股再度溃败——市场传出中国 AI 芯片技术可能加速突破的报道、叠加英伟达循环融资疑虑，费半盘中一度跌超 5%，SK 海力士美股盘中破发、大跌 10%。与北亚形成鲜明对比的是，A 股（沪指午盘仅 -0.98%）、港股（恒生微跌 0.11%）、新加坡（+1.48%）与澳洲（+1.62%）相对抗跌，资金正在从拥挤的 AI 硬件多头向非科技资产轮动。大宗商品方面，美伊"深入谈判"与霍尔木兹海峡复航预期令 WTI 崩跌 11.51% 至 81.58 美元，战争溢价快速消退。

指数表现 #

* 恒指与 A 股指数为 7/27 收盘值；7/28 盘中恒生约 -0.11%，沪指 -0.98%，深成指 -3.42%，创业板指 -5.37%。

台湾 #

EN: The TAIEX plunged 6.42% to 41,946.30, its second single-day loss above 6% in two weeks, as the de-grossing wave in global semis hit the market with the single-largest TSMC concentration. TSMC — roughly 42% of index weight — remains the transmission channel of the AI capex-doubt trade: despite a blowout Q2 (net income +77% YoY) and a raised capex guide to $60–64bn, the stock has been unable to hold gains as investors question whether hyperscaler returns will ever match the spending. Selling was indiscriminate across the supply chain, with foreign outflows compounding retail margin pressure. With the index now well below its June peak, the 40,000 level is the next psychological support; a break would invite systematic CTA selling.

中文： 台股加权指数暴跌 6.42% 至 41,946.30 点，两周内第二次单日跌幅超过 6%。本轮全球半导体"去杠杆"（de-grossing，即机构集中削减多头敞口）对台股冲击尤甚，因为台积电占指数权重约 42%，几乎就是指数本身。讽刺的是，台积电基本面并不差——二季度净利同比增 77%，全年资本开支指引上调至 600–640 亿美元——但市场已经从"业绩兑现"切换到"质疑 AI 资本开支回报率"的定价模式，业绩再好也接不住卖盘。外资持续流出叠加散户融资盘被动减仓，抛压沿供应链无差别扩散。指数距 6 月高点已大幅回撤，4 万点整数关口是下一道心理支撑，一旦跌破可能触发趋势跟踪型资金（CTA）的系统性抛盘。

韩国 #

EN: The KOSPI collapsed 9.98% to 6,074.52 — the worst session of the current correction — after opening down 5.3% and accelerating lower through the morning. This is no longer a valuation adjustment; it is a mechanical unwind. Korea’s retail leverage boom, stoked by leveraged ETFs on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, has gone into reverse: an estimated 1.2 million brokerage accounts have faced margin calls (roughly 10% of all accounts), and forced liquidation is feeding on itself. Overnight catalysts compounded the damage: SK Hynix’s US-listed shares broke below their IPO price in a 10% intraday slide, SanDisk cratered 11%, and Micron fell amid renewed doubts over AI memory demand. The won actually firmed 0.99% to 1,465.06 — a sign the move is equity-specific deleveraging rather than capital flight, for now. Authorities’ warnings on “herd mentality” and leverage suggest intervention risk is rising.

中文： KOSPI 以 9.98% 的跌幅收于 6,074.52 点——本轮调整以来最惨烈的一个上午。指数开盘即跌 5.3% 报 6,400 点，随后跌幅一路扩大。这已经不再是估值修正，而是机械式的杠杆出清：此前韩国散户通过三星电子、SK 海力士的杠杆 ETF 大举做多 AI 交易，如今全面逆转，估计有 120 万个券商账户（约占总数 10%）收到追加保证金通知（margin call），强制平仓盘相互踩踏、自我强化。隔夜催化雪上加霜：SK 海力士美股盘中大跌 10% 并跌破发行价，闪迪重挫 11%，美光下跌，市场再度质疑 AI 存储需求的真实性。值得注意的是韩元反而升值 0.99% 至 1,465.06——说明目前仍是股市内部去杠杆，尚未演变成全面资本外逃。韩国财长已公开警告"羊群效应"与杠杆风险，监管干预（如限制做空的反向操作或流动性支持）的概率正在上升。

日本 #

EN: The Nikkei 225 fell 5.94% to 62,186.39, a striking intraday deterioration from a modest -0.6% open at 64,539.92 — evidence that the sell-off was driven by regional momentum reversal and cross-market de-grossing rather than any Japan-specific news. Semiconductor equipment names bore the brunt, tracking the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s overnight rout and the KOSPI’s accelerating losses. The yen remains remarkably weak at 163.77 per dollar, which under normal circumstances would cushion exporters; the fact that it didn’t tells you the selling is about positioning, not earnings. Chip-adjacent heavyweights and AI-infrastructure proxies led declines, while defensive domestic demand names outperformed on a relative basis. Watch whether the BoJ’s tolerance for yen weakness shifts if equity volatility feeds into financial conditions.

中文： 日经 225 大跌 5.94% 至 62,186.39 点。值得注意的是，日经今早开盘仅跌 0.6%（64,539.92 点），上午一路加速下杀——这说明抛压并非来自日本本土消息，而是区域性的动量反转（momentum reversal）和跨市场联动去杠杆。半导体设备股首当其冲，跟随隔夜费半指数和盘中 KOSPI 的加速下跌。日元依然极弱（163.77），按常理弱日元本应托底出口股，但今天完全失效——这印证了抛售的本质是仓位出清而非盈利下修。AI 基建相关权重股领跌，内需防御类个股相对抗跌。后续需关注：如果股市剧烈波动传导至金融条件，日本央行对弱日元的容忍度是否会发生变化。

香港 #

EN: Hong Kong was the calm eye of the storm. The HSI closed +0.98% at 25,207.18 on Monday and was roughly flat (-0.11%) by midday Tuesday, with the HSCEI up 0.29%. The divergence is structural: the index’s tech exposure is internet-platform rather than hardware-heavy, so the semiconductor rout passes it by. Chinese ADRs actually rallied 2.5% overnight, with Xiaomi’s ADR up nearly 9%. Southbound flows stayed positive (net buy ~HK$853mn across both channels), suggesting mainland investors are buying the dip. The week’s key event is Thursday’s listing of Zhongji Innolight (中际旭创) — priced around HK$980, a ~19% discount to its A-share, in what could be Hong Kong’s largest IPO in seven years (~HK$53.4bn, up to HK$61bn with greenshoe). Ironically, it is an optical-module AI name; its debut performance will be a live referendum on whether the AI trade is dead or merely rotating.

中文： 港股是这场风暴的风眼。恒指周一收升 0.98% 报 25,207.18 点，周二午盘仅微跌 0.11%，恒生国企指数甚至小涨 0.29%。这种抗跌是结构性的：恒指的科技敞口以互联网平台为主，而非硬件半导体，因此芯片股的溃败与港股绝缘。隔夜中概股反而大涨 2.5%，小米 ADR 飙升近 9%。南向资金维持净流入（港股通沪+深合计净买入约 8.5 亿港元），显示内地资金在逢低吸纳。本周焦点是周四中际旭创港股挂牌——定价约 980 港元，较 A 股折让约 19%，发行规模约 534 亿港元（含绿鞋可达 610 亿），是近七年港股最大 IPO。颇具戏剧性的是，它本身就是 AI 光模块龙头——其上市首日表现将成为"AI 交易已死还是只是轮动"的现场公投。

中国 #

EN: Mainland equities offered the session’s most instructive divergence. Monday was euphoric: memory-chip maker ChangXin Technology (长鑫科技) soared 465% on its STAR Market debut with over RMB 140bn in turnover, lifting the ChiNext +3.16% and the SZSE Component +2.72%. Tuesday morning gave half of it back: the ChiNext slumped 5.37%, the Shenzhen Component fell 3.42%, while the Shanghai Composite held relatively firm at -0.98%. The pattern is classic theme-exhaustion — yesterday’s “domestic chip breakthrough” narrative that lifted A-shares is the very same report (Chinese AI chip advances) that torched US semis overnight, and today it cut both ways. Dividend/low-volatility factors outperformed (the 红利低波 ETF closed in the green), and brokers flagged rotation into non-tech: brokers, industrial metals, pharma. Northbound flow data was unavailable (net buy reported as zero), but breadth was weak — roughly 1,430 gainers against 1,977 decliners across both connects.

中文： A 股上演了今日最有教学意义的分化。周一还在狂欢：存储芯片厂长鑫科技科创板上市首日暴涨 465%，成交破 1,400 亿元，带动创业板指 +3.16%、深成指 +2.72%。周二上午就回吐大半：创业板指重挫 5.37%，深成指跌 3.42%，沪指相对抗跌仅 -0.98%。这是典型的题材衰竭走势——昨天"国产芯片突破"的叙事托起 A 股，而正是同一则报道（中国 AI 芯片技术加速突破）在隔夜引爆了美股半导体的抛售，今天这把刀两面都割。防御风格明显占优：红利低波 ETF 逆市收红，券商研报建议关注非科技轮动方向（券商、工业金属、医药生物）。北向资金净买入数据暂未披露（接口返回为零），但市场宽度偏弱——沪深股通合计约 1,430 家上涨、1,977 家下跌。

其他亚太市场 #

亚太内部的分化比涨跌本身更有信息量。跌幅榜被科技硬件占比高的市场包揽（韩台日），而澳洲 ASX 200（+1.62%）与新加坡 STI（+1.48%）逆势走强——前者靠银行、必需消费等防御权重，后者是区域资金避风港，两者的共同点是与 AI 半导体链条几乎零相关。印度 SENSEX 微涨 0.19%，延续"油价下跌最大受益者"逻辑：印度央行周一刚大举抛售美元干预汇市，卢比创一个月最大涨幅，WTI 崩跌 11.5% 直接改善其进口成本与通胀前景。反面是印尼 JCI 跌 2.45%，成为东南亚表现最差市场——大宗商品出口国同时承受油价下跌与全球风险偏好收缩的双重挤压，外资流出压力上升。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

沪股通、深股通净买入数据暂未更新（接口返回 0）。市场宽度：沪股通 650 涨 / 940 跌，深股通 780 涨 / 1,037 跌，整体偏弱但未现极端恐慌。

南向资金 #

港股通（沪）净买入 8.34 亿港元，港股通（深）净买入 0.19 亿港元，合计约 8.5 亿港元净流入。在港股窄幅波动背景下，南向资金延续"逢调整买入"的惯性，偏好互联网平台与高股息央国企方向。

汇率与宏观 #

WTI 单日 -11.51% 是宏观端最大的单一事件——和谈预期下的战争溢价快速蒸发。黄金在 4,047 美元几乎收平，自 3 月高点已回撤约 25%，RSI 触及 2022 年以来次低，但加息预期与油价反复令反弹迟迟无法启动。美 10 年期收益率 4.64%，曲线持续走平。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 美伊冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡：停火进入"谈判窗口期"，油价崩跌 #

EN: The US quietly halted strikes on Iran late Friday after nearly two weeks of fighting, and Trump said he suspended the campaign to give negotiations “another chance,” describing the talks as “very deep.” Iranian and Omani negotiators met over the weekend on restoring Hormuz shipping. But signals are dangerously mixed: Tehran publicly denies talks are happening, insisting Washington cannot decide “when the war starts or stops,” and a suspected drone attack hit Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq facility. Trump meets Netanyahu and Zelensky separately at the White House on Tuesday — the week’s single biggest event risk. WTI’s 11.5% collapse to $81.58 prices in a meaningful probability of Hormuz normalization; tanker traffic, however, remains far below pre-war levels.

中文： 美军在持续近两周的打击后于上周五悄然停火，特朗普称暂停打击是给谈判"再一次机会"，并形容美伊正在进行"非常深入的谈判"；伊朗与阿曼谈判代表周末就恢复霍尔木兹海峡通航举行会谈。但信号极度矛盾：德黑兰公开否认正在谈判，坚称"何时战、何时止"轮不到美国决定；同时沙特阿美阿布凯克核心油气设施疑遭无人机袭击起火。特朗普周二将在白宫分别会见内塔尼亚胡和泽连斯基——这是本周最大的单一事件风险。WTI 崩跌 11.5% 至 81.58 美元，说明市场已为"海峡复航"计入了相当概率；但实际油轮通行量仍远低于战前水平，预期抢跑明显。

关键时间节点： 7 月 28 日（周二，华盛顿时间）特朗普-内塔尼亚胡/泽连斯基白宫会晤；霍尔木兹复航协议的任何官宣或破裂。

2. 俄乌战争：泽连斯基再赴白宫，能源设施互袭持续 #

EN: Zelensky travels to Washington for Tuesday talks with Trump, with Iran and Ukraine both on the agenda. On the energy front, crude exports resumed at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast after recent Ukrainian drone attacks — one more incremental supply normalization pressuring oil. Sanctions architecture is unchanged; European defence spending commitments remain the durable market theme regardless of diplomatic progress.

中文： 泽连斯基周二赴白宫与特朗普会谈，伊朗与乌克兰议题同桌讨论。能源端，黑海沿岸里海管道联盟（CPC）码头在遭乌军无人机袭击后已恢复原油出口——又一个边际供应正常化信号，与伊朗和谈共振压制油价。制裁框架未变；无论外交进展如何，欧洲军费扩张仍是最具持续性的市场主题。

关键时间节点： 7/28 白宫会晤后是否出现停火路线图；8 月初欧盟对俄新一轮制裁表决。

3. 全球关税 / 科技贸易冲突：芯片成为新前线 #

EN: The tariff war has morphed into a compute war. Overnight’s US semi rout was triggered by a report that a Chinese AI chip breakthrough could accelerate the mainland industry’s self-sufficiency — the same narrative behind ChangXin Technology’s 465% IPO pop in Shanghai. Treasury Secretary Bessent said last week that US-China tariff talks have entered a “new phase,” and NVDA “circular financing” concerns (vendors investing in customers who buy their chips) are adding a governance discount to the AI complex. Export-control tightening remains a live tail risk for the entire Asian hardware chain.

中文： 关税战已经演变为算力战。隔夜美股半导体重挫的直接诱因，是一则"中国 AI 芯片技术突破可能加速国产替代"的报道——这与长鑫科技上市暴涨 465% 是同一个叙事的一体两面。美国财长贝森特上周称对华关税谈判进入"新阶段"；同时市场对英伟达"循环融资"（厂商投资客户、客户再用钱买芯片）的担忧正在给整个 AI 板块加上治理折价。出口管制进一步收紧，仍是整条亚洲硬件链头顶的尾部风险。

关键时间节点： 7/30 中际旭创港股挂牌；8 月美光/博通业绩与 AI 资本开支指引；美中关税"新阶段"谈判的任何文件落地。

专家研判 #

相对受益方向：

1. 航空/交运 — 油价 -11.5% 的最直接受益者（国泰航空、大韩航空、春秋航空）
2. 炼化/石化 — 原料成本骤降、成品油价差走阔（台塑化、恒力石化）
3. 中国国产算力 — 突破叙事+政策加持，与美系链脱钩运行（中芯国际、长鑫科技产业链）
4. 印度 — 低油价+央行护盘+与 AI 硬件泡沫零相关（HDFC Bank、信实工业）
5. 红利/低波 — 去杠杆环境下的资金避风港（A 股红利低波、港股高股息央国企）

需要回避方向：

1. 韩系杠杆化 AI 多头 — 强制平仓未完，SK 海力士/三星的杠杆 ETF 仍处于负反馈中
2. 存储芯片 — 需求质疑+海力士破发+闪迪 -11%，板块情绪冰点
3. 油气上游 — 战争溢价快速消退，WTI 中枢或继续下移
4. 高拥挤度半导体设备 — 资本开支叙事的反身性正在反转

情景分析（未来两周，以 7/28 白宫会晤与霍尔木兹谈判为轴）：

• 基准情景（55%）：停火延续、谈判拉锯 — 油价在 78–88 区间震荡，北亚股市技术性反弹但高度受限，AI 交易转向"业绩验证"模式。KOSPI 反弹至 6,300–6,500 即遇抛压。
• 缓和情景（20%）：霍尔木兹复航协议落地 — WTI 下探 70–75，全球 risk-on，但半导体内生的去杠杆仍会拖累韩台跑输；航空/炼化/印度继续领涨。
• 升级情景（25%）：谈判破裂或阿布凯克袭击坐实扩大 — 油价单日重回 95+，KOSPI 测试 5,800，日元急升引发套息平仓二次冲击，黄金结束磨底放量上行。

关键主题 #

• AI 交易去杠杆：KOSPI 自高点回撤超 30%，120 万账户 margin call，这是一次杠杆出清而非基本面崩塌——但出清不会一天结束。
• 油价战争溢价蒸发：WTI -11.5% 至 81.58 美元，市场抢跑霍尔木兹复航；若谈判破裂，反弹将同样剧烈。
• 北亚与南亚/澳洲的极端分化：科技硬件占比决定今日涨跌，资金从拥挤多头向防御与非科技轮动。
• 中国算力叙事的一体两面：“国产芯片突破"同一天托起长鑫科技（+465%）和砸崩英伟达（-5%）——地缘科技战进入新阶段。
• 7/28 白宫会晤：特朗普同日会见内塔尼亚胡与泽连斯基，伊朗与乌克兰两条冲突线的走向都系于这一天。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。