亚洲午盘 — 2026-07-27

市场概览 #

亚洲市场周一早盘剧烈分化。三条利空线同时施压：特朗普上周四宣布对60个贸易伙伴加征两位数关税（已遭小企业诉讼挑战）、Alphabet推迟Gemini 3.5 Pro发布后发酵的AI资本开支疑虑延续上周五美股科技股抛售、以及周末霍尔木兹海峡一艘油轮触雷爆炸令伊朗停火再度蒙阴。出口导向的台股与日经领跌，分别下挫2.50%与2.55%；韩股则在SK海力士与三星电子带动下逆势反弹1.64%，走出独立的半导体超级周期行情。A股与港股低开后企稳回升，午盘前上证指数翻红涨0.40%。WTI原油回落2.07%至85.03美元，黄金跌1.38%至4,089.60美元。

指数表现 #

* 注：港股与A股指数为7月24日收盘数据；据沪深港通盘中数据，今日午盘前上证指数+0.40%、深证成指+1.41%、恒生指数+0.81%，均为低开高走。

台湾 #

The TAIEX shed 1,107.96 points (-2.50%) to 43,124.91 in the morning session, the steepest decline in the region, as the market priced a triple headwind: President Trump’s sweeping double-digit tariffs on 60 trading partners announced last Thursday, lingering AI capex scrutiny after Alphabet pushed back its Gemini 3.5 Pro launch, and Friday’s 1.83% drop in the US-listed EWT. TSMC, which had just raised its 2026 revenue growth guidance to above 40%, led the de-grossing as foreign investors trimmed crowded semiconductor longs. The optics are worsened by USD/TWD firming 0.34% to 32.38, consistent with foreign outflows. Notably, the US Section 232 25% semiconductor tariff implemented in January remains the structural overhang; the January 15 US-Taiwan trade deal lowering the reciprocal rate to 15% now looks less protective if the new 60-country tariff schedule stacks on top. Watch the 42,500 level — a break would put the July range lows in play.

台股加权指数早盘重挫1,107.96点（-2.50%）至43,124.91点，跌幅居亚洲之首。三重压力共振：特朗普上周四宣布对60个贸易伙伴加征两位数关税；Alphabet推迟Gemini 3.5 Pro发布引发的AI资本开支疑虑持续发酵；美股上市的台湾ETF（EWT）上周五已先跌1.83%。刚把2026年营收增长指引上调至40%以上的台积电领跌，外资对拥挤的半导体多头仓位进行降杠杆（de-grossing）。美元/台币升至32.38（+0.34%），与外资流出迹象一致。结构性压力在于：美国1月已实施25%半导体232关税，而1月15日刚把对台对等关税降至15%的美台贸易协议，在新的60国关税清单面前保护力存疑。技术面关注42,500点支撑，跌破则回测7月区间低点。

韩国 #

KOSPI bucked the regional rout, jumping 106.97 points (+1.64%) to 6,623.24 as the semiconductor supercycle narrative reasserted itself. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led from the front, recovering part of Friday’s violent unwind that had sent the US-listed EWY down 6.27% — the sharpest single-day drop since the mid-July “Black Monday” that briefly knocked the index to the 6,800 level. The Barclays call that memory shortages will persist for years, plus SK Hynix’s successful ADR listing, continues to anchor foreign flows; the won strengthened 0.56% to 1,466.75, confirming repatriation and foreign buying. The structural story is intact: Kospi ex-chip operating profit is still forecast to grow from 180.8 trillion won in 2025 to 233.6 trillion won in 2026, so breadth is less fragile than headline concentration suggests. The key risk remains positioning — with Samsung plus SK Hynix at roughly 43% of index weight, any US big-tech capex disappointment this week (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft all report) transmits directly into KOSPI beta.

韩国综合指数逆势大涨106.97点（+1.64%）至6,623.24点，半导体超级周期叙事重新主导盘面。三星电子与SK海力士领涨，修复上周五的剧烈回撤——当日美股上市的韩国ETF（EWY）暴跌6.27%，为7月中旬"黑色星期一"（指数一度探至6,800点）以来最大单日跌幅。巴克莱"存储芯片短缺将持续数年"的看多报告，加上SK海力士ADR成功上市，持续锚定外资流入；韩元升值0.56%至1,466.75，印证外资买回。结构上，剔除两大芯片巨头的KOSPI成分股营业利润预计仍将从2025年的180.8万亿韩元增至2026年的233.6万亿韩元，市场广度没有指数集中度显示的那么脆弱。核心风险在仓位：三星加海力士约占指数权重43%，本周Alphabet、Meta、微软财报中任何资本开支不及预期的信号，都会直接放大KOSPI的波动。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 tumbled 1,687.32 points (-2.55%) to 64,544.87, unwinding last week’s push toward 67,000 as exporters were hit from both sides: the new US tariff schedule and a weekend reminder that the Strait of Hormuz remains mined, after a tanker struck a naval mine and exploded. USD/JPY pushed up 0.67% to 163.58 — well past the 160 line that triggered intervention threats from Finance Minister Katayama in April — which cushions exporter earnings in yen terms but raises the probability of actual MoF intervention, a classic momentum-reversal risk for crowded short-yen carry trades. The BOJ is holding at 0.75% with Governor Ueda explicitly flagging that supply-driven oil inflation is hard to control with rates; Japan’s near-total dependence on Middle East crude makes it the most exposed G7 economy to any Hormuz re-escalation. Breadth was decisively negative, with autos and precision machinery leading declines. Support at 64,000 (the July 17 panic low) is the line bulls must defend into this week’s FOMC.

日经225指数大跌1,687.32点（-2.55%）至64,544.87点，回吐上周逼近67,000点的涨幅。出口股遭遇双向打击：美国新关税清单，以及周末霍尔木兹海峡一艘油轮触雷爆炸提醒市场海峡布雷风险未除。美元/日元升0.67%至163.58，远超4月触发财务大臣片山干预警告的160关口——日元贬值虽能缓冲出口商盈利，但也显著提高了财务省实际干预的概率，这对拥挤的做空日元套息交易是典型的动量反转（momentum reversal）风险。日本央行维持0.75%利率不变，行长植田和男明确表示供给端油价通胀难以用利率工具控制；日本对中东原油近乎完全依赖，是G7中对霍尔木兹再升级敞口最大的经济体。盘面广度明显转差，汽车与精密机械领跌。多头本周FOMC前必须守住64,000点（7月17日恐慌低点）支撑。

香港 #

The Hang Seng Index’s last confirmed close was 24,963.23 (-0.98%) on Friday, but Monday’s tape tells a better story: Stock Connect intraday data shows the HSI up 0.81% by midday, a low-open-high-walk session as mainland money bought the dip. Southbound flows were mixed but net positive — a HK$6.67 million net sell via the Shanghai leg against a HK$14.98 million net buy via Shenzhen — with breadth at 384 advancers versus 188 decliners. HSCEI was nearly flat at 8,356.98 (-0.30%), outperforming growth-heavy indices. The market is trading on two offsetting forces: tariff escalation risk on China-exposed names versus the policy put from Beijing and resilient southbound demand. KWEB and FXI were steady in US trading Friday (+0.08% and +0.35%), suggesting offshore positioning is not stressed.

恒生指数最近确认的收盘价为7月24日的24,963.23点（-0.98%），但今日盘面明显更强：沪深港通盘中数据显示，恒指午盘前上涨0.81%，呈低开高走格局，内地资金逢低买入。南向资金流向分化但净额为正——港股通（沪）净卖出667万港元，港股通（深）净买入1,498万港元；个股涨跌比384:188，多方占优。恒生国企指数基本持平于8,356.98点（-0.30%），跑赢成长类指数。市场在两股对冲力量间定价：中国敞口个股的关税升级风险，对应北京的政策托底与南向资金的持续需求。上周五美股上市的中概ETF（KWEB +0.08%、FXI +0.35%）走稳，说明离岸仓位压力不大。

中国 #

Mainland indices staged an intraday reversal on Monday. After Friday’s broad de-rating (CSI 300 -1.67% to 4,649.19; SZSE Component -2.47% to 13,774.68), the Shanghai Composite was up 0.40% and the SZSE Component up 1.41% by midday, with striking breadth — 1,378 advancers against 230 decliners in Shanghai, and 1,687 against 171 in Shenzhen. USD/CNY held at 6.77 (-0.06%), with the PBoC midpoint signalling continued commitment to currency stability as a tariff counterweight. The read-through: domestic liquidity and the policy put are absorbing external shocks, and retail-driven breadth remains constructive. The caveats: northbound net buy data has been effectively suspended (reported as zero), so foreign positioning is opaque; and the new 60-country tariff schedule plus the July 31 pharma tariff effective date keep export-pharma chains vulnerable. Watch whether the index can hold above 3,800 through Wednesday’s FOMC.

A股周一上演盘中反转。上周五全面降估值（沪深300跌1.67%至4,649.19点；深证成指跌2.47%至13,774.68点）之后，今日午盘前上证指数翻红涨0.40%，深证成指大涨1.41%，个股广度极为强劲——沪市上涨1,378家对下跌230家，深市1,687家对171家。美元/人民币稳定在6.77（-0.06%），央行中间价持续释放汇率维稳信号，以此对冲关税压力。解读：国内流动性与政策托底正在吸收外部冲击，散户驱动的市场广度保持建设性。需要注意两点：北向资金净买入数据实质上已停止披露（显示为零），外资真实仓位不透明；新的60国关税清单加上7月31日药品关税生效日，令出口医药链条持续承压。关注指数能否在周三FOMC前守住3,800点。

其他亚太市场 #

印尼是今日区域最差市场：雅加达综合指数重挫2.45%，高油价对净进口国的财政与经常账压力，叠加外资从东盟高beta市场撤出，令其成为60国关税清单下供应链再定价的直接受损方。新加坡STI逆势涨1.85%领跑亚太，银行权重受益于"更高更久"的利率预期（美10年期收益率4.68%），避险资金向防御性金融中心轮动的特征明显。印度SENSEX跌1.00%延续五连阴，FII持续卖出（上周四单日净卖出近300亿卢比）叠加卢比走弱至95上方，外资撤离与油价输入性通胀的双重挤压仍在演绎；本周二印度F&O三到期叠加FOMC，波动率（India VIX 14.03）易上难下。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

沪深股通净买入数据今日显示为零（北向实时净买入披露已常态化暂停），无法观察外资盘中动向。但盘面广度提供替代信号：沪股通标的上涨1,378家/下跌230家，深股通标的上涨1,687家/下跌171家，多方全面占优。

南向资金 #

• 港股通（沪）：净卖出 667万港元
• 港股通（深）：净买入 1,498万港元
• 合计净买入约 831万港元，方向为正但规模清淡，内资逢低承接港股的态度未变。

汇率与宏观 #

油价回落是今日宏观面最有信息量的信号：WTI跌2.07%至85.03美元，说明市场目前将周末霍尔木兹触雷事件定价为"可控摩擦"而非停火破裂，与UBS"海峡流量恢复至冲突前50%“的基准判断一致。黄金跌1.38%至4,089.60美元，部分多头在FOMC前获利了结。日元贬至163.58，干预风险显著上升。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 —— 风险再升级 #

EN: The fragile June 17 US-Iran interim MoU took another hit over the weekend when an oil tanker struck a naval mine and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz — the second mine-related incident this month after the July 7 triple-tanker attack that triggered US retaliatory strikes and the revocation of Iran’s oil-sale license. Iran’s army warned the war would “expand further” if US attacks restart; Houthi rebels fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia on Saturday in response to airstrikes on Hodeida. Strait transits remain at roughly 50% of pre-conflict levels, with Iran insisting on route control and future passage fees — a non-starter for the US and Gulf states. WTI at $85 embeds only a modest risk premium; UBS flags a path back toward $100+ if the MoU breaks down.

中文：6月17日美伊临时谅解备忘录再度承压——周末一艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡触雷爆炸，这是本月第二起水雷事件（7月7日曾有三艘油轮遇袭，引发美军报复性打击并吊销伊朗石油销售许可）。伊朗军方警告若美国重启攻击，战争将"进一步扩大”；胡塞武装周六向沙特发射导弹和无人机，报复其对荷台达的空袭。海峡通航量仍仅为冲突前的50%左右，伊朗坚持航线管控并拟未来收取通行费，遭美方与海湾国家拒绝。WTI 85美元仅计入温和风险溢价；UBS提示若备忘录破裂，油价可能重回100美元上方。

关键节点：美伊永久协议间接谈判（暂无明确日程，哈梅内伊葬礼后停滞）；美军是否对触雷事件做出军事回应（未来48-72小时）。

2. 俄乌战争 —— 消耗战延续 #

EN: Strike exchanges continued over the weekend with civilian casualties reported on both sides. The sanctions regime remains in flux after the US temporarily lifted restrictions on Russian oil in March to manage the Hormuz-driven energy crisis, and 32-nation strategic reserve releases continue. For Asia, the channel is indirect: European defense spending keeps order books full for Korean and Japanese defense names, while any Russian supply normalization is a bearish tail for crude.

中文：周末双方继续互相打击，均报告平民伤亡。制裁格局仍在变动——美国3月为应对霍尔木兹能源危机临时放松了对俄石油限制，32国战略储备释放仍在继续。对亚洲而言传导路径是间接的：欧洲军费扩张持续填满韩日防务企业订单簿；而俄罗斯供应若正常化，则构成油价的下行尾部风险。

关键节点：秋季前线攻势窗口；美对俄油临时豁免的续期决定。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 —— 本轮抛售的直接导火索 #

EN: Last Thursday’s announcement of double-digit tariffs on 60 trading partners is the proximate trigger for today’s regional sell-off; two small-business lawsuits were filed within 48 hours. The effective rate stack keeps rising: 25% Section 232 semiconductors (January), 50% steel/aluminum/copper, a 10% Section 122 baseline, and pharma 100% duties taking effect July 31 for Annex III companies. The administration also declined to renew USMCA in its current form, opening up to 10 years of annual reviews. Corporate response is accelerating: Apple is reportedly seeking approval to source memory from China’s CXMT — a supply-chain shock that crushed Sandisk (-14%) Friday and carries direct read-through for Samsung, SK Hynix and the Taiwan memory chain.

中文：上周四宣布对60个贸易伙伴加征两位数关税是今日亚太抛售的直接导火索，48小时内已遭两起小企业诉讼挑战。实际税率层层加码：1月的25%半导体232关税、50%钢铝铜关税、10%的122条款基线关税，以及7月31日对附件三企业生效的100%药品关税。美方同时拒绝以现行形式续签美墨加协定，进入最长10年的年度审议期。企业应对正在加速：据报道苹果正寻求批准从中国长鑫存储采购存储芯片——这一供应链冲击上周五令Sandisk暴跌14%，对三星、SK海力士及台湾存储链条有直接传导。

关键节点：7月31日药品关税对附件三企业生效；60国关税的法院诉讼进展；美墨加年度审议启动。

专家研判 #

相对受益方向：

1. 油气与油运 —— 中海油(0883.HK)、中远海能(1138.HK)
2. 防务 —— 三菱重工(7011.T)、韩华Aerospace(012450.KS)
3. 中国国产半导体替代 —— 兆易创新(603986)、中芯国际(0981.HK)
4. 新加坡金融 —— DBS(D05.SI)，利率高企+避险资金流入
5. 韩国存储双雄（逢低）—— SK海力士(000660.KS)、三星电子(005930.KS)，短缺周期未被证伪

需要回避方向：

1. 日韩汽车出口链 —— 新关税直接目标，丰田(7203.T)、现代汽车(005380.KS)
2. 印度高估值消费/地产 —— FII连续流出+卢比贬值共振
3. 航空股 —— 燃油成本+地缘航线风险双击
4. 对台出口敞口大的美系科技股 —— 台海关税不确定性

情景分析（锚定7月29日FOMC + 本周美股科技巨头财报 + 霍尔木兹军事回应窗口）：

关键主题 #

• 60国新关税落地：特朗普上周四宣布的两位数关税是今日亚太抛售的直接导火索，诉讼挑战已开始但短期不确定性主导定价。
• AI资本开支信仰裂痕：Alphabet推迟Gemini 3.5 Pro + 苹果导入长鑫存储，本周Alphabet/Meta/微软财报是半导体行情的审判日。
• 霍尔木兹水雷再现：周末油轮触雷爆炸，伊朗警告战争可能"扩大"，油价仅温和定价风险溢价，存在重估空间。
• 韩股独立行情：KOSPI逆势+1.64%，存储超级周期+ADR上市+巴克莱看多形成与大盘脱钩的结构性牛市。
• 日元干预红线：USD/JPY 163.58远超160干预线，财务省行动风险成为日股额外波动源。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。