亚洲午盘 — 2026-07-24

市场概览 #

亚洲午盘呈现“半导体修复、能源冲击、关税重定价”三线分化。台湾加权指数反弹 2.92%，日经 225 小涨 0.26%；韩国综合指数回吐 1.67%，印度 SENSEX 则在原油进口成本与全球贸易摩擦的双重压力下下跌 2.66%。WTI 原油单日跃升 10.26% 至 91.77 美元，黄金与美元指数同步上行，美债收益率也明显抬升，组合信号更接近滞胀交易，而非单纯避险。当天新闻面进一步加压：胡塞武装袭击沙特油轮后，美国威胁实施更强军事回应；美国同时对约 60 个贸易伙伴启动新一轮强迫劳动相关关税。

数据时点需要特别说明：JSON 中台湾、韩国、日本及多数扩展市场为 7 月 24 日快照；恒生指数、沪深 300 与上证综指仍为 7 月 23 日快照。下表严格保留 JSON 数值，香港与中国部分不把前一交易日数据误写为今日实时涨跌；7 月 24 日盘中状态主要参考恒生国企指数、互联互通宽度及公开新闻。

指数表现 #

台湾 #

Taiwan delivered the region’s cleanest rebound, with the TAIEX up 2.92% at 43,687.87. The move is best read as a high-beta semiconductor relief trade after the prior week’s violent de-grossing, rather than a broad rejection of the oil-and-tariff shock. Taiwan’s index concentration means even modest re-risking in foundry, packaging and AI-server exposures can produce an outsized benchmark move. The key cross-asset caveat is USD/TWD at 32.35, up 0.11%: equities rallied despite a slightly softer currency, so the session appears driven more by short covering and domestic bargain hunting than by a decisive foreign-flow turn.

台股是今日区域内最清晰的修复交易，加权指数上涨 2.92% 至 43,687.87 点。更合理的解读是：上周剧烈减仓后，高贝塔半导体仓位出现回补，而不是市场已经否定油价和关税冲击。台股权重高度集中，只要晶圆代工、先进封装和 AI 服务器链出现温和回补，指数就会被显著放大。需要保留一层谨慎：美元/台币上涨 0.11% 至 32.35，股汇并未同步转强，因此本轮更像空头回补和本地资金抄底，而非外资趋势性回流。

The 43,500 area now serves as the first tactical pivot. Holding above it would keep the momentum-reversal trade intact; failure would suggest today’s advance was primarily positioning repair. A new US tariff floor of at least 10% on Taiwanese goods also raises the probability of MOC selling in export-heavy names if companies cannot pass through compliance and relocation costs.

43,500 点附近成为首个战术观察位：若能守住，动能反转仍可延续；若快速失守，则说明今日涨势主要是仓位修复。美国对台湾商品设置至少 10% 的新关税底线，也会提高出口权重股尾盘集合竞价（MOC）遭遇卖盘的概率，尤其是无法转嫁合规与产能迁移成本的企业。

韩国 #

The KOSPI fell 1.67% to 6,706.79, giving back part of the previous session’s semiconductor-led surge. This is a classic momentum reversal: crowded memory exposure met tighter domestic leverage rules, with Korea’s Financial Services Commission bringing forward a KRW30 million cash-deposit requirement for retail single-stock leveraged ETFs to July 31. The won strengthened 1.45% to 1,465.88 per dollar, so the equity decline was not accompanied by capital-flight FX stress; the tape instead points to position trimming and leverage compression.

韩国综合指数下跌 1.67% 至 6,706.79 点，回吐前一交易日由存储芯片带动的部分涨幅。这是典型的动能反转：拥挤的存储交易遭遇本地杠杆规则收紧，韩国金融服务委员会把散户交易单一个股杠杆 ETF 的 3,000 万韩元现金保证金要求提前至 7 月 31 日实施。与此同时，韩元对美元升值 1.45% 至 1,465.88，股市下跌并未伴随资本外逃式的汇率压力，盘面更接近获利了结与杠杆压缩。

Breadth remains the decisive signal after a highly volatile July. If selling stays confined to the largest memory complex while the won remains firm, the move is manageable de-grossing. If weakness spreads to autos, batteries and financials, the index would be shifting from a factor unwind to a genuine macro risk-off regime. The oil shock matters indirectly through Korea’s import bill and directly through the discount rate, as the US 10-year yield rose to 4.70%.

经历高波动的 7 月后，市场宽度是最关键的信号。如果卖压仍集中在大型存储权重、韩元继续坚挺，本轮可视为可控的减仓；若弱势扩散至汽车、电池和金融板块，则意味着行情正从因子挤兑转向真正的宏观避险。油价冲击一方面恶化韩国能源进口账单，另一方面通过利率直接压低估值——美国 10 年期国债收益率已升至 4.70%。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 edged 0.26% higher to 64,309.76, showing relative resilience despite the sharp oil move. USD/JPY rose 0.81% to 163.84, cushioning exporter earnings translations but worsening imported inflation for households and domestic cyclicals. The offset is nearly symmetrical: yen weakness supports autos and machinery in index terms, while WTI at $91.77 raises input costs and complicates the Bank of Japan’s policy path.

日经 225 小涨 0.26% 至 64,309.76 点，在油价急升背景下显示相对韧性。美元/日元上涨 0.81% 至 163.84，一方面改善出口企业的日元折算利润，另一方面加重居民和内需周期行业的输入型通胀。两股力量几乎对称：日元走弱从指数层面利好汽车和机械权重，WTI 升至 91.77 美元则抬高投入成本，并让日本央行的政策路径更难判断。

The index’s muted gain versus Taiwan’s rebound argues against chasing beta. A sustained break above 164 in USD/JPY could invite intervention risk, while another leg higher in crude would hurt airlines, retailers and utilities. Tokyo’s next move therefore depends less on headline AI enthusiasm and more on whether oil and the yen can stop reinforcing each other’s inflationary impulse.

日股涨幅远小于台股，说明追逐高贝塔并不划算。美元/日元若持续突破 164，汇率干预风险会升高；原油若再上一个台阶，航空、零售和公用事业将继续承压。东京市场下一步与其说取决于 AI 情绪，不如说取决于油价与日元能否停止相互强化输入型通胀。

香港 #

The latest HSI observation in the source file is the July 23 snapshot: 25,210.81, up 1.28%. For July 24, the fresher signal is the HSCEI at 8,258.02, up 1.49%, alongside positive southbound net buying. That combination suggests mainland investors are still willing to add Hong Kong exposure even as the global tape prices a higher oil and tariff risk premium. Energy and high-dividend state-owned enterprises should retain relative support, while internet and consumer names face a less forgiving discount-rate backdrop.

源文件中恒生指数最新一笔仍是 7 月 23 日快照：25,210.81 点，上涨 1.28%。判断 7 月 24 日盘中状态，更及时的信号是恒生国企指数上涨 1.49% 至 8,258.02 点，同时南向资金保持净买入。这个组合说明，即使全球市场正在提高油价与关税风险溢价，内地投资者仍愿意增加港股敞口。能源和高股息央企预计保持相对支撑，互联网与可选消费则要面对更严苛的贴现率环境。

The divergence between a firm HSCEI and weak Connect breadth is important. It points to index support from a narrow group of large-cap defensives rather than uniformly positive breadth. Traders should distinguish benchmark stability from broad risk appetite; if breadth fails to improve, rallies near resistance are more likely to attract MOC supply.

恒生国企指数走强、港股通标的下跌家数却明显占优，这一背离很重要：指数支撑可能来自少数大盘防御权重，而不是普遍风险偏好改善。交易上应把“指数稳定”与“市场全面转强”区分开；如果午后宽度没有改善，接近阻力位的反弹更可能在尾盘集合竞价遭遇抛盘。

中国 #

The CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite readings in the JSON are July 23 snapshots, up 0.23% and 0.25% respectively. July 24’s Connect breadth is materially weaker: Shanghai Connect recorded 187 advancers versus 1,443 decliners, while Shenzhen Connect showed 161 advancers versus 1,701 decliners. The opening rotation reported by local financial media was consistent with an energy shock—oil services and gas resisted the decline, while computing hardware, memory chips and non-ferrous metals were under pressure.

JSON 中沪深 300 与上证综指仍是 7 月 23 日快照，分别上涨 0.23% 和 0.25%。7 月 24 日互联互通宽度明显转弱：沪股通标的 187 家上涨、1,443 家下跌；深股通标的 161 家上涨、1,701 家下跌。本地财经媒体报道的开盘轮动也符合能源冲击特征——油服与燃气相对抗跌，算力硬件、存储芯片和有色金属承压。

This is broader than a mega-cap drag and therefore deserves caution. With USD/CNY little changed at 6.78, the stress is not primarily an FX event; it is a repricing of margins and duration. Upstream energy can hold a bid, but higher crude, a firmer dollar and a 4.70% US 10-year yield are an unfavorable mix for richly valued growth. A meaningful afternoon stabilization would require breadth to improve, not merely the headline index to be defended.

这次弱势并非只有大盘权重拖累，因此需要谨慎。美元/人民币基本持平于 6.78，压力并非主要来自汇率，而是企业利润率与久期资产重新定价。上游能源可能维持买盘，但高油价、强美元和 4.70% 的美国 10 年期国债收益率，对高估值成长股并不友好。午后若要出现有效企稳，必须看到上涨家数改善，而不能只靠权重护住指数。

其他亚太市场 #

印度是今日扩展市场的核心风险点。SENSEX 下跌 2.66%，触发额外分析：印度高度依赖进口原油，WTI 单日上涨 10.26% 会同时推高通胀、经常账户赤字与财政补贴压力；美国新关税虽把印度列入 10% 档，但全球需求放缓与合规成本上升仍会压制出口制造和 IT 服务估值。75,000 点附近是下一个整数支撑区，若油价继续上行，外资减仓可能从成长股扩散至金融与消费。

新加坡 STI 上涨 0.86%，与多数东盟市场形成反差。其银行与高股息权重提供防御，但新加坡也是区域炼化、航运和贸易枢纽，红海与霍尔木兹同时受扰会提高保险、燃料与库存成本。澳大利亚 ASX 200 仅跌 0.39%，能源与资源出口属性缓冲了全球风险偏好下降；若油价长期站稳高位，澳洲相对东北亚制造国仍可能占优，但高利率会限制地产和消费板块。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

沪股通与深股通的 net_buy、net_flow 字段均为 0。由于北向资金盘中实时净买入数据已停止公开披露，0 不应解读为“外资没有交易”。更有效的盘中信号是市场宽度：沪股通标的上涨 187 家、下跌 1,443 家；深股通标的上涨 161 家、下跌 1,701 家，风险偏好显著偏弱。

南向资金 #

港股通(沪)净买入约 5.07 亿港元，港股通(深)净买入约 0.23 亿港元，合计约 5.30 亿港元。与此同时，港股通标的仅 68 家上涨、533 家下跌，说明南向资金在逆势承接少数权重或防御标的，而非追逐全面普涨。

汇率与宏观 #

宏观组合是今日最重要的定价线索。原油、黄金、美元与美债收益率同时上涨，意味着市场交易的不是传统“避险买债”，而是战争与关税共同推动的通胀风险。油价每多维持一周高位，亚洲原油进口国的利润率与政策空间就多受一层挤压；相对受益者则集中在上游能源、油运、黄金与部分资源出口市场。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡与红海 #

English: The Middle East risk premium widened again after Houthi missile and drone attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. President Trump threatened “major military punishment” against Iran and the Houthis, while US strikes on Iran entered a thirteenth consecutive night and Iran retaliated against US-linked bases in Jordan and Kuwait. Strait of Hormuz transit remains severely impaired, and the Red Sea attack has opened a second chokepoint through Bab el-Mandeb. War-risk insurance costs have risen and vessels are diverting, turning a Gulf supply problem into a broader freight and refined-products problem. Reuters reported Brent above $100 in response; the report’s structured market snapshot records WTI at $91.77, up 10.26%.

中文：胡塞武装以导弹和无人机袭击两艘沙特油轮后，中东风险溢价再次扩大。特朗普威胁对伊朗及胡塞武装实施“重大军事惩罚”；美军对伊朗的打击进入连续第 13 夜，伊朗则反击约旦和科威特境内的美方相关基地。霍尔木兹海峡通航仍严重受阻，红海袭击又把曼德海峡变成第二个瓶颈。战争险保费上升、船舶绕航，意味着问题已从海湾原油供应扩展至全球运费和成品油供应链。Reuters 报道布伦特油价因此突破 100 美元；本报告的结构化行情快照记录 WTI 为 91.77 美元，单日上涨 10.26%。

关键时间节点：7 月 31 日前，市场将重点观察美方是否兑现扩大军事行动的威胁，以及红海战争险和船舶绕航是否进一步上调；任何霍尔木兹通航恢复安排都会成为油价快速回吐的触发点。

2. 俄乌战争 / 黑海与制裁 #

English: The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a direct energy and shipping variable. Ukraine has expanded drone attacks against Russian refineries, tankers and Sea of Azov logistics, while Russia continues large-scale missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. On July 23, EU members adopted a 21st sanctions package that adds restrictions on shadow-fleet vessels, LNG-carrier sales and transactions with additional Russian banks. The immediate market channel is tighter logistics and compliance rather than a sudden loss of Russian supply. Le Monde reported 41 additional shadow-fleet vessels and 33 additional Russian banks targeted.

中文：俄乌战争继续通过能源与航运直接影响市场。乌克兰扩大了对俄罗斯炼厂、油轮和亚速海物流的无人机打击，俄罗斯则持续对乌克兰城市与基础设施发动大规模导弹和无人机攻击。欧盟成员国于 7 月 23 日通过第 21 轮制裁，新增对“影子船队”、LNG 运输船销售以及更多俄罗斯银行交易的限制。短期影响更可能表现为物流与合规成本上升，而不是俄罗斯供应突然归零。Le Monde 报道，本轮新增制裁涉及 41 艘“影子船队”船舶及 33 家俄罗斯银行。

关键时间节点：预计美国国会最快在 7 月 27 日当周讨论包含俄罗斯内容的新制裁方案；欧盟现有个人制裁的下一次明确到期节点为 9 月 15 日。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

English: The tariff conflict escalated materially on July 24. The United States imposed new forced-labor-related duties of 10% to 12.5% on imports from around 60 trading partners as a temporary 10% global tariff expired. India, Canada, Mexico and the UK fall into a 10% tier; goods from Japan, South Korea and many other economies face at least 12.5%, while Taiwan and the EU face at least 10%. Energy, fertilizer, selected food, industrial metals and critical North American trade items received exemptions. The policy raises landed costs and compliance burdens even where nominal rates appear lower than prior threats. The Business Times reported the duties took effect at 12:01 a.m. New York time on July 24.

中文：7 月 24 日，全球关税冲突出现实质升级。美国在临时 10% 全球关税到期之际，对约 60 个贸易伙伴的进口商品征收 10% 至 12.5% 的强迫劳动相关新关税。印度、加拿大、墨西哥和英国进入 10% 档；日本、韩国及许多其他经济体至少为 12.5%，台湾和欧盟至少为 10%。能源、化肥、部分食品、工业金属及北美关键贸易品获得豁免。即使名义税率低于此前威胁，新制度仍提高了到岸成本和供应链合规负担。The Business Times 报道，新关税已于纽约时间 7 月 24 日 00:01 生效。

关键时间节点：7 月 24 日是新关税生效日；未来两周需观察各经济体是否宣布报复措施、企业是否申请豁免，以及美国海关执行细则是否造成清关延误。

4. 其他活跃冲突：红海航运外溢 #

English: The Red Sea is no longer merely a secondary extension of the Iran war. Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers and the declared blockade of Saudi ports have caused vessels to divert around Bab el-Mandeb, with war-risk pricing reportedly doubling on some routes. The market impact extends beyond crude: container shipping, diesel availability, fertilizers and Asian refinery feedstock are all exposed to longer voyages and higher working-capital requirements.

中文：红海已不再只是伊朗战争的次级外溢。胡塞武装袭击沙特相关油轮并宣布封锁沙特港口后，船舶开始避开曼德海峡，部分航线的战争险报价据报翻倍。影响不只在原油：集装箱航运、柴油供应、化肥以及亚洲炼厂原料，都要承担更长航程与更高营运资金占用。

关键时间节点：未来 72 小时是判断封锁威胁能否转化为持续航运中断的首个窗口；若更多承运人宣布绕航，运价与亚洲成品油裂解价差可能出现第二轮跳升。

专家研判 #

相对受益方向：

• 上游油气：中国海油(0883.HK)、Woodside(WDS.AX)——油价与风险溢价直接改善现金流
• 油运与集装箱航运：中远海能(600026.SH)、中远海控(601919.SH)——绕航增加吨海里与运价弹性
• 黄金与贵金属：紫金矿业(601899.SH)、Newmont(NEM)——战争风险与通胀对冲共振
• 军工防务：三菱重工(7011.T)、韩华航空航天(012450.KS)——地区军费与补库存延续
• 供应链合规软件：SAP(SAP.DE)、Oracle(ORCL)——关税规则提高追溯与申报投入

需要回避方向：

• 航空与旅游：燃油、绕航和保险费用同时上升，票价传导通常滞后
• 印度等高原油进口经济体的内需周期股：通胀与经常账户压力可能压缩政策空间
• 高估值、长久期科技股：美债 10 年期收益率升至 4.70%，贴现率压力加重
• 低毛利出口制造：美国新关税与原产地合规成本难以完全转嫁

情景分析（以 7 月 31 日前军事与航运进展为观察窗口）：

关键主题 #

• 油价冲击取代单一避险交易：WTI +10.26%，美元与美债收益率同步上行，市场核心是通胀风险而非买债避险
• 台韩半导体出现分叉：台股 +2.92% 延续仓位修复，KOSPI -1.67% 则受获利了结与杠杆规则收紧压制
• 印度触发额外风险分析：SENSEX -2.66%，高原油进口依赖放大通胀、经常账户与盈利压力
• 美国重建关税墙：对约 60 个伙伴实施 10%-12.5% 新关税，亚洲出口制造面临新一轮合规与利润率考验
• 两大航运瓶颈同时受扰：霍尔木兹与曼德海峡风险叠加，油运、集运、航空和亚洲炼化的相对价格将继续重排

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。