亚洲午盘 — 2026-07-23

市场概览 #

亚洲市场周四午盘呈现"科技反弹 + 地缘避险"双主线。Alphabet 隔夜公布超预期财报并上调资本开支指引,重新点燃 AI 基建叙事,韩国 KOSPI 暴涨 4.03% 收复 7,000 点,录得三连阳;与此同时,美伊冲突进入第 11 个连续空袭夜,伊朗反击美军驻巴林、科威特、约旦设施,胡塞武装宣布封锁沙特海运,WTI 原油单日飙涨 6.16% 至 $88.36,黄金跳升 2.93% 至 $4,128。台股在台积电 ADR 走弱拖累下逆势下跌 0.78%,A 股则在油金飙升背景下小幅回吐,资金从半导体流向有色、电网、电池等通胀受益方向。

指数表现 #

台湾 #

Taiwan was the region’s lone laggard, with the TAIEX sliding 0.78% to 44,474.90 in a mild momentum reversal after recent gains. TSMC’s ADR fell 0.82% overnight after the foundry giant flagged that Trump’s “Made in America” push would structurally erode margins on overseas fabs, and local profit-taking followed despite the Alphabet-driven rebound in AI sentiment elsewhere. The intraday range was wide — the index opened near 45,090 before sellers emerged below the 44,400 support zone — suggesting de-grossing by fast money rather than panic. With the TWD flat at 32.26 and no foreign-flow shock visible, the pullback reads as rotation within semis: money leaving crowded TSMC longs and chasing the higher-beta memory trade in Seoul. Watch whether 44,000 holds into the close; a break would expose the 20-day moving average cluster near 43,500.

台股是今日亚洲唯一下跌的主要市场,加权指数跌 0.78% 至 44,474.90 点,属于近期上涨后的温和动能反转。台积电 ADR 隔夜下跌 0.82%——公司预警特朗普"美国制造"政策将长期侵蚀海外扩产的利润率,本地资金随即获利了结,尽管 Alphabet 财报重新点燃了其他市场的 AI 情绪。盘中波幅较大(开盘接近 45,090 点后在 44,400 点支撑位下方遭遇卖压),更像是短线资金减仓(de-grossing)而非恐慌出逃。台币汇率持平于 32.26,未见外资大幅撤离迹象,本轮回调本质是半导体内部轮动:资金撤出拥挤的台积电多头,转投首尔更高贝塔的存储芯片行情。午后关注 44,000 点能否守住,失守则将下探 43,500 点附近的 20 日均线密集区。

韩国 #

KOSPI surged 4.03% to 7,071.75, reclaiming the 7,000 handle for a third consecutive session of gains — the strongest relief rally since the July crash that wiped out 23% of the index and triggered a record seven circuit breakers. The catalyst was Alphabet’s better-than-expected quarterly revenue and, more importantly, its raised capex outlook, which validated the AI infrastructure demand story that Korean memory makers live and die by. SK Hynix (000660) jumped over 6%, Samsung Electronics (005930) added more than 4%, with SK Square (402340) +3.1%, Hyundai Motor (005380) +3.0% and LG Energy Solution (373220) +3.0% rounding out a broad-based advance. Macro tailwinds helped: Q2 GDP expanded 0.6%, triple the Bank of Korea’s 0.2% forecast, on robust semiconductor exports. The won rallied 0.83% to 1,466.58 per dollar, its strongest session this month. Context matters: even after today’s bounce, the index sits ~22% below its June peak of 9,114, and Citigroup — which downgraded Korea to neutral on Monday — has a 10,000 target that implies the leveraged-ETF unwind is viewed as a positioning event, not a fundamentals break. Breadth and futures-led buying suggest short covering is amplifying the move; sustainability hinges on tonight’s Intel print and whether hyperscaler capex guidance holds through the earnings season.

韩国综合指数暴涨 4.03% 至 7,071.75 点,收复 7,000 点整数关口,录得三连阳——这是 7 月暴跌(指数累跌 23%、七度熔断创纪录)以来最强的修复性反弹。催化剂是 Alphabet 超预期营收,更关键的是其上调资本开支指引,验证了韩国存储双雄赖以生存的 AI 基建需求逻辑。SK 海力士(000660)大涨超 6%,三星电子(005930)涨超 4%,SK Square(402340)+3.1%、现代汽车(005380)+3.0%、LG 新能源(373220)+3.0%,呈普涨格局。宏观面助攻:韩国二季度 GDP 环比增长 0.6%,三倍于韩国央行 0.2% 的预测,半导体出口强劲是主因。韩元同步升值 0.83% 至 1,466.58,创本月最强单日表现。需要清醒的是:即便今日大涨,指数仍较 6 月峰值 9,114 点低约 22%;花旗周一下调韩国至"中性"但维持 10,000 点目标价,意味着机构普遍把本轮去杠杆视为仓位事件而非基本面断裂。盘面宽度与期货引领的买盘显示空头回补正在放大涨幅,反弹能否持续取决于今晚英特尔财报以及超大规模厂商资本开支指引在整个财报季能否兑现。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 rose 0.56% to 66,486.65, a notably muted performance versus Seoul’s melt-up. Chip-adjacent names caught a bid from the Alphabet read-across, but two offsetting forces capped the rally: first, WTI’s 6% spike is a direct terms-of-trade shock for the world’s fourth-largest crude importer; second, the yen’s slide to 163.05 per dollar — the weakest level in decades — is a double-edged sword, flattering exporter earnings while stoking imported inflation that complicates the BOJ’s normalization path. The 10-year JGB-US yield spread continues to drive USD/JPY more than equity flows do, and with the US 10-year at 4.66%, Tokyo traders are reluctant to chase index-level upside ahead of tonight’s US tech earnings. The session’s 67,022 intraday high was sold into, a reminder that positioning in Japanese equities remains lighter than in Korea and rallies are being used to trim rather than add.

日经 225 指数上涨 0.56% 至 66,486.65 点,相比首尔的暴涨明显克制。芯片相关个股受 Alphabet 财报映射获得买盘,但两股对冲力量压制了涨幅:其一,WTI 暴涨 6% 对这个全球第四大原油进口国是直接贸易条件冲击;其二,日元贬至 163.05——数十年最弱水平——是把双刃剑,既美化出口企业盈利,又加剧输入型通胀,令日本央行政策正常化路径更加纠结。日美 10 年期利差(美债 10Y 已至 4.66%)对美元/日元的驱动远大于股市资金流,东京交易员在今晚美国科技股财报前不愿追高指数。盘中 67,022 点高点遭遇抛压,说明日股仓位比韩国更轻,反弹被用作减仓而非加仓窗口。

香港 #

The Hang Seng Index climbed 1.34% to 25,227.06, with the HSCEI up 1.32% to 8,360.13, as Hong Kong captured both sides of today’s tape: the AI relief trade and the oil-price shock. Chip names extended their strong run — SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong (01347) both advancing on TSMC’s sharply raised capex guidance, which the street reads as a multi-year equipment and foundry upcycle. Energy and coal names caught the geopolitical bid, with Yankuang Energy (01171) among the standout performers earlier this week as Brent pushed through $90. Notably, southbound flows turned negative — Stock Connect investors net sold roughly HK$1.62 billion across both channels (Shanghai-HK Connect -HK$1.31bn, Shenzhen-HK Connect -HK$0.31bn) — suggesting mainland money is taking profits into strength after this week’s 2,500-point rebound off the lows. Market breadth remained healthy with advancers outnumbering decliners nearly 3:1 on the Connect universe. The index is now testing resistance near 25,300; a close above opens 25,800.

恒生指数上涨 1.34% 至 25,227.06 点,恒生国企指数涨 1.32% 至 8,360.13 点,港股同时吃到了今日两条主线的红利:AI 修复交易与油价冲击。芯片股延续强势——中芯国际(00981)、华虹宏力(01347)双双走高,台积电大幅上调资本开支被解读为跨年度设备与代工景气周期。能源与煤炭股获地缘溢价加持,兖矿能源(01171)本周早些时候布伦特突破 90 美元时已率先异动。值得注意的是南向资金转为净流出——港股通(沪)净卖出约 13.06 亿港元、港股通(深)净卖出约 3.14 亿港元,合计约 16.2 亿港元——显示内地资金在本周自低点反弹逾 2,500 点后趁强势获利了结。市场宽度依然健康,港股通标的涨跌比接近 3:1。指数目前正测试 25,300 点附近阻力,收盘站稳则打开 25,800 点空间。

中国 #

A-shares drifted lower with the CSI 300 off 0.20% at 4,707.96 and the Shanghai Composite down 0.19% at 3,859.69, a defensive consolidation after last week’s sharp correction (the Shanghai benchmark shed 5.81% in the July 13-17 week). The tape tells a clear rotation story: sector flow data shows money moving into grid equipment (+409mn), industrial metals (+340mn), non-ferrous metals (+285mn), batteries (+267mn) and power equipment (+264mn) — classic energy-shock beneficiaries — while semiconductors (-372mn), digital chip design (-363mn) and electronics (-182mn) saw the largest outflows as domestic chip names decoupled from the Korean rally and took profits. Breadth was constructive on the margin (Shanghai: 908 up vs 686 down; Shenzhen: 1,015 up vs 823 down) despite the red indices, consistent with an index weighed down by mega-cap tech rather than broad selling. The yuan held firm at 6.77, and with Beijing’s policy put intact, the afternoon session will hinge on whether commodity-linked strength can offset the semiconductor drag.

A 股小幅走低,沪深 300 跌 0.20% 至 4,707.96 点,上证综指跌 0.19% 至 3,859.69 点,属于上周急跌(沪指 7 月 13-17 日当周跌 5.81%)后的防御性整固。盘面讲述清晰的轮动故事:行业资金流向显示,电网设备(+4.09 亿)、工业金属(+3.40 亿)、有色金属(+2.85 亿)、电池(+2.67 亿)、电力设备(+2.64 亿)获资金净流入——典型的能源冲击受益方向;而半导体(-3.72 亿)、数字芯片设计(-3.63 亿)、电子(-1.82 亿)遭遇最大净流出,国产芯片股与韩国行情脱钩、选择获利了结。指数虽绿但宽度不差(沪市 908 涨对 686 跌;深市 1,015 涨对 823 跌),说明是大盘科技股压指数而非普遍性抛售。人民币持稳于 6.77,政策托底预期仍在,午后走势取决于大宗商品链的强势能否对冲半导体板块的拖累。

其他亚太市场 #

今日亚太扩展市场的分野几乎完全由"油价冲击的赢家与输家"决定。印尼雅加达综合指数大涨 1.25% 领跑——作为煤炭、棕榈油与天然气净出口国,WTI 单日 +6% 直接改善其贸易条件,能源股权重推升指数;澳大利亚 ASX 200 涨 0.60% 同理,Woodside、Santos 等能源权重叠加矿商走强,对冲了科技股的平淡。输家一侧,印度 SENSEX 跌 0.40%:印度约 85% 原油依赖进口,布伦特站稳 92 美元上方直接抬升其经常账户与通胀压力,叠加此前外资持续流出 IT 权重股,市场承压明显。新加坡 STI 跌 0.63% 则是航运成本与区域避险情绪的双重折现。越南 VN-Index 跌 0.47%,制造业供应链叙事让位于短期成本担忧。

联动逻辑值得标记:若油价在 $90 上方站稳两周以上,“东盟资源国 > 东北亚制造国 > 南亚进口国"的相对强弱排序将自我强化,这与今日 JCI/ASX 强、SENSEX/STI 弱的盘面完全一致。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

沪股通、深股通今日净买入数据均为 0(实时净买入额自 2024 年 8 月起已停止盘中披露,盘后成交数据尚未更新)。从市场宽度看,沪股通标的 908 涨 / 686 跌,深股通标的 1,015 涨 / 823 跌,上涨家数占优,与指数微跌形成背离,显示权重科技股拖累指数而中小盘承接尚可。

南向资金 #

南向资金今日转为净卖出:港股通(沪)净卖出 13.06 亿港元,港股通(深)净卖出 3.14 亿港元,合计净流出约 16.19 亿港元。恒指本周自低点反弹逾 2,500 点后,内地资金选择在芯片与能源双主线冲高之际兑现部分利润,属于强势中的正常换手,尚未构成趋势性撤离信号。

汇率与宏观 #

大宗与汇率组合传递出典型的"战争溢价 + 滞胀交易"信号:WTI 单日 +6.16% 至 $88.36(布伦特亚洲盘已站上 $92),黄金 +2.93% 至 $4,128 创历史新高区间,美债 10Y 上行 9bp 至 4.66%——油价驱动的通胀预期正在压倒避险买债需求。美元/日元突破 163,日元贬值加速,日债-美债利差主导汇率;韩元逆势走强 0.83%,是股市暴涨引发的资本回流;人民币稳守 6.77,央行中间价引导痕迹明显。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 美伊战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡(当前市场第一驱动) #

English: The conflict has re-escalated sharply. US Central Command confirmed an eleventh consecutive night of strikes on Iranian military targets — aircraft facilities, drone infrastructure, coastal surveillance and air defences — while Iran retaliated against US installations in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. The June ceasefire framework has effectively collapsed: Strait of Hormuz transit volume has fallen toward zero from a pre-crisis baseline of ~93 vessels/day, and Iran-aligned Houthi forces have compounded the squeeze by declaring a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia and threatening Bab el-Mandeb traffic, forcing at least three Saudi crude tankers bound for China and India to turn back toward Suez. The Pentagon disclosed operations have cost ~$37.5bn to date. WTI +6.16% and Brent above $92 price in a widening supply-risk premium; the US SPR at 331mn barrels — lowest since 1983 — removes the traditional shock absorber.

中文:冲突再度急剧升级。美国中央司令部证实已连续第 11 夜空袭伊朗军事目标(军机设施、无人机基建、海岸监视与防空系统),伊朗则反击美军驻巴林、科威特、约旦设施。6 月停火框架实质破裂:霍尔木兹海峡通航量从危机前日均约 93 艘降至接近零;胡塞武装雪上加霜,宣布对沙特实施海上封锁并威胁曼德海峡通行,至少三艘驶往中国和印度的沙特油轮被迫折返苏伊士方向。五角大楼披露行动耗资已达约 375 亿美元。WTI +6.16%、布伦特站上 $92,定价的是不断扩大的供应风险溢价;美国战略石油储备仅 3.31 亿桶(1983 年以来最低),传统缓冲垫不复存在。

关键时间节点: 7 月 23 日晚 EIA 原油库存(API 已显示原油累库,若官方数据确认或短暂压制涨幅);特朗普"要么达成协议、要么完成任务"的表态意味着本周末前可能出现新的外交窗口或进一步军事行动;8 月初 OPEC+ 产量会议是下一个供给端变量。

2. 俄乌战争 / 黑海能源走廊 #

English: The Russia-Ukraine war’s market relevance this week runs through the energy channel rather than sanctions headlines. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal suspended Kazakh crude loadings after attacks on tankers, adding a second disrupted supply corridor on top of Hormuz. Strategists warn a prolonged suspension could force Kazakhstan to cut upstream output. Combined with European rearmament spending — a structural bid under defence names — the conflict continues to underpin the geopolitical floor under crude and European defence multiples.

中文:俄乌战场本周对市场的影响主要通过能源通道而非制裁头条传导。里海管道联盟(CPC)黑海码头在油轮遇袭后暂停哈萨克斯坦原油装载,在霍尔木兹之外增添了第二条受扰供应走廊;机构警告若长期停摆,哈国或被迫削减上游产量。叠加欧洲重整军备的结构性支出,该冲突持续为油价和欧洲军工估值提供地缘底部支撑。

关键时间节点: CPC 码头恢复公告(无明确时间表,逐日跟踪);8 月下旬欧盟秋季国防预算协调。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易战 #

English: The tariff front is quiet on new measures but loud on corporate adaptation. TSMC’s warning that Trump’s “Made in America” drive will durably compress overseas-fab margins is the clearest signal yet that tariff-adjacent industrial policy is now a structural margin variable for Asian tech, not a one-off shock. Supply-chain re-routing continues to favour Vietnam and India as assembly alternatives, though today’s tape shows that trade is being dwarfed by the oil shock.

中文:关税战线今日无新增措施,但企业层面的适应动作声音很大。台积电预警特朗普"美国制造"路线将长期压缩海外晶圆厂利润率,这是迄今最清晰的信号:与关税相邻的产业政策已成为亚洲科技股的结构性利润率变量,而非一次性冲击。供应链重组继续利好越南、印度的组装替代叙事,不过今日盘面显示该主题已被油价冲击暂时盖过。

关键时间节点: 8 月 1 日美国对部分经济体对等关税暂缓到期日,若无延期将重新成为头条风险。

4. 专家研判 #

相对受益方向:

• 上游油气与油服:中国海油(0883)、Woodside(WDS)——油价中枢上移的直接受益者
• 黄金及贵金属:紫金矿业(601899)、纽蒙特(NEM)——避险 + 实际利率见顶双驱动
• 存储半导体:SK 海力士(000660)、三星电子(005930)——超大规模厂商资本开支上修 + 情绪修复
• 军工防务:韩华 Aerospace(012450)、三菱重工(7011)——双线冲突下的确定性订单流
• 油运:中远海能(600026)——绕航运距 + 战争险溢价

需要回避方向:

• 航空股:航油成本侵蚀 2026 下半年盈利预期
• 原油净进口国指数(印度、日本部分权重):贸易条件恶化
• 高杠杆韩国散户衍生品的底层权重股短线追高:KOSPI 仍处熔断后修复期,波动率结构脆弱
• 利率敏感的高估值软件股:美债 10Y 若持续站稳 4.6% 上方将压制久期资产

情景分析(未来两周,以 EIA 数据与美方下一步行动为节点):

• 情景 A(概率 45%):边打边谈,霍尔木兹维持低通航但未完全封锁。布伦特 $88-95 区间震荡,KOSPI 反弹延续至 7,300-7,500 后动能衰减,亚洲整体高位震荡。
• 情景 B(概率 35%):外交突破,临时停火 2.0。油价快速回落 $10-15,避险资产回吐,全球风险资产普涨,日韩科技股领涨,A 股半导体补涨。
• 情景 C(概率 20%):海峡实质封锁或美军扩大打击至能源设施。布伦特冲 $110+,全球滞胀交易全面启动,亚洲股市普遍回撤 5-8%,仅能源、黄金、军工逆势。

关键主题 #

• Alphabet 资本开支上修: 重新验证 AI 基建需求,直接点燃 KOSPI +4.03% 的三连阳,SK 海力士单日涨超 6%
• 美伊冲突第 11 夜: 连续空袭 + 伊朗反击美军海湾基地 + 胡塞封锁沙特海运,油价 +6.16% 成今日最硬主线
• 霍尔木兹通航归零: 全球 20% 原油运输咽喉接近停摆,美国 SPR 创 1983 年以来新低,供应缓冲消失
• 台韩背离: 同一 AI 叙事下,资金从拥挤的台积电多头轮向更高贝塔的韩国存储,台股逆势跌 0.78%
• A 股通胀轮动: 资金从半导体流出,涌入电网设备、工业金属、电池——油金飙升正在改写 A 股板块地图

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息,分析内容为编辑团队观点,不构成投资建议。