亚洲午盘 — 2026-07-22

市场概览 #

亚洲市场周三呈现明显的"北强南弱"格局。AI 芯片股反弹进入第二个交易日，但动能快速衰减：KOSPI 早盘一度飙升逾 5% 至 7,166 点，午盘前回落至 +1.95%；日经 225 从早盘近 +2% 几乎回吐全部涨幅。隔夜纳斯达克半导体指数大涨 5.2% 为亚太芯片链提供了开局动能，但市场在 Alphabet 与特斯拉今晚财报前选择锁定利润。与此形成对比，港股科网股遭遇重挫，网易、腾讯跌约 6%，拖累恒指下跌 1.12%；黄金股则在国际金价站上 4,060 美元的背景下全线爆发。越南 VN-Index 大跌 2.18%，成为亚太最大输家。

指数表现 #

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX extended its rebound, gaining 1.34% to 44,825.78 at midday, riding the second leg of the global semiconductor recovery. The index touched an intraday high of 45,323.75 before paring gains, tracking the same fade pattern seen in Seoul and Tokyo as traders took profits ahead of Alphabet and Tesla earnings tonight. TSMC-led supply chain names remained the primary index driver, with the overnight 5.2% surge in the US semiconductor gauge providing the initial bid. The US-listed Taiwan ETF (EWT) jumped 4.84% overnight, signalling strong offshore demand for Taiwan exposure despite the index still recovering from the early-July AI valuation correction.

台湾加权指数延续反弹，午盘上涨 1.34% 至 44,825.78 点，乘上全球半导体复苏的第二波行情。指数盘中一度触及 45,323.75 点，随后跟随首尔、东京同样的冲高回落形态——交易员在今晚 Alphabet 和特斯拉财报前选择获利了结。台积电为首的供应链个股仍是指数主要驱动力，隔夜美股半导体指数大涨 5.2% 提供了开盘买盘。美股上市的台湾 ETF (EWT) 隔夜大涨 4.84%，显示离岸资金对台股敞口需求强劲，尽管指数仍处在 7 月初 AI 估值修正后的修复过程中。

韩国 #

The KOSPI delivered the wildest session in Asia, spiking over 5% in early trade to 7,166 before fading hard to +1.95% at 6,879.83 — a near-300-point intraday giveback that flags fragile conviction in the AI rebound. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix again led the charge, extending Tuesday’s 3.6% index rally as dip-buyers continue to rebuild positions after the early-July rout that pushed the index into bear-market territory (still down over 20% from the June peak despite a 50%+ YTD gain). The violent intraday momentum reversal suggests fast-money de-grossing into strength ahead of tonight’s US mega-cap earnings, which will serve as the next binary test for the HBM/AI capex narrative. Korea ETF (EWY) surged 6.16% overnight, the strongest regional print.

韩国综合指数上演了亚洲最疯狂的一个交易日：早盘飙升逾 5% 至 7,166 点，随后大幅回落，午盘涨幅收窄至 +1.95%（6,879.83 点）——近 300 点的盘中回吐表明市场对 AI 反弹的信心依然脆弱。三星电子与 SK 海力士再度领涨，延续周二指数 3.6% 的反弹，抄底资金在 7 月初暴跌（指数一度跌入技术性熊市，尽管年内涨幅仍超 50%，但较 6 月高点回撤逾 20%）后持续重建仓位。剧烈的盘中动能反转显示游资在美股巨头财报前借强势减仓（de-gross），今晚的财报将成为 HBM/AI 资本开支叙事的下一个二元考验。韩国 ETF (EWY) 隔夜大涨 6.16%，为区域内最强。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 surrendered nearly all of its early gains, finishing the morning flat at 66,264.26 (+0.05%) after touching 67,592.20 in the opening hour — a textbook momentum fade as the chip-driven bounce ran into overhead supply. Tokyo’s chip names (including Kioxia) joined the regional rebound for a second session, but the lack of follow-through buying suggests domestic institutions remain on the sidelines ahead of US earnings and with the yen trajectory uncertain. Japan ETF (EWJ) gained 2.55% overnight. The index’s inability to hold above 67,000 keeps the near-term tape neutral; a decisive catalyst is likely needed from either tonight’s US tech earnings or the next BoJ communication.

日经 225 几乎回吐全部早盘涨幅，午盘收平于 66,264.26 点（+0.05%）——开盘首小时曾触及 67,592.20 点，这是教科书式的动能衰竭形态：芯片股带动的反弹在上方抛压区受阻。东京芯片股（包括铠侠）连续第二个交易日加入区域反弹，但缺乏跟进买盘表明日本本土机构在美股财报前和日元走势不确定的背景下仍持观望态度。日本 ETF (EWJ) 隔夜上涨 2.55%。指数无法站稳 67,000 点上方，短期盘面维持中性；下一个决定性催化可能来自今晚美股科技股财报或日本央行下一次政策沟通。

香港 #

Hong Kong decoupled sharply from the North Asian rally, with the HSI sliding 1.12% to 24,852.01 and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping 2.11% as heavyweight internet names were hit by aggressive profit-taking. NetEase (9999.HK) fell over 6% and Tencent (0700.HK) dropped nearly 6%, while Meituan, Xiaomi and JD.com all lost more than 2%. The pain was concentrated in AI-application and consumer-internet names, suggesting a rotation rather than broad risk-off: memory and chip names rallied hard — Montage Technology surged over 12% and ZTE gained over 10% — while gold miners exploded higher with Chifeng Gold up over 14%, Zijin Gold International up over 11% and Zijin Mining up over 7% as spot gold held above $4,060/oz. Topsports (6110.HK) cratered 24% after announcing its Nike online distribution in mainland China will end next year. Southbound flows remained supportive with a combined ~HK$5.5bn net buy, but it was not enough to offset the tech selloff.

香港市场与北亚反弹行情明显脱钩：恒指下跌 1.12% 至 24,852.01 点，恒生科技指数重挫 2.11%，权重科网股遭遇猛烈获利了结。网易 (9999.HK) 跌超 6%，腾讯 (0700.HK) 跌近 6%，美团、小米、京东跌幅均超 2%。抛压集中在 AI 应用和消费互联网板块，显示这是板块轮动而非全面避险：存储和芯片股强势走高——澜起科技大涨超 12%，中兴通讯涨超 10%；黄金股在国际金价站稳 4,060 美元/盎司上方后全线爆发，赤峰黄金涨超 14%，紫金黄金国际涨超 11%，紫金矿业涨超 7%。滔搏 (6110.HK) 暴跌 24%，公司宣布其内地耐克产品线上平台销售将于明年终止。南向资金合计净买入约 55 亿港元提供支撑，但不足以抵消科网股抛压。

中国 #

Mainland A-shares treaded water at midday, with the Shanghai Composite essentially flat at 3,865.87 (+0.04%), the CSI 300 down 0.23% at 4,728.44, and the Shenzhen Component off 0.91% at 14,135.10. Breadth was decisively negative — over 1,000 decliners versus 567 advancers on the Shanghai Connect board — but index-level losses were contained by strength in memory semiconductors, non-ferrous metals and gold miners, which tracked the global commodity bid. Innovative drug names and compute-leasing concepts saw pockets of speculative activity, while AI-application, EV and battery names lagged. Property names staged a modest midday bounce. Northbound flow data showed zero net buy, likely reflecting stale/quota-limit data rather than actual flows; the CSRC’s latest symposium signalling continued capital-market reform support provided a mild sentiment floor.

A 股午盘波澜不惊：上证综指基本持平于 3,865.87 点（+0.04%），沪深300 跌 0.23% 至 4,728.44 点，深证成指跌 0.91% 至 14,135.10 点。市场宽度明显偏弱——沪股通标的下跌家数超 1,000 家，上涨仅 567 家——但指数层面跌幅有限，靠的是存储半导体、有色金属和黄金股的强势，这些板块跟随全球大宗商品买盘走高。创新药和算力租赁概念出现局部炒作热点，AI 应用、新能源车和电池板块领跌。地产股午盘出现小幅异动拉升。北向资金数据显示净买入为零，可能反映数据延迟/额度统计口径问题而非实际流向；证监会最新座谈会释放资本市场改革持续支持的信号，为市场情绪提供了温和托底。

其他亚太市场 #

越南深度回调: Vietnam’s VN-Index was the region’s worst performer, plunging 2.18% to 1,692.90 with an intraday low of 1,690.85 — a high-velocity unwind after the index’s strong run toward 1,740. The selling pattern (opening gap-down with no meaningful intraday recovery) points to institutional profit-taking rather than panic, likely exacerbated by two factors: first, the looming US “Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026” and its secondary tariff authority of up to 100% on countries facilitating Russian oil trade, which raises compliance overhang for Vietnamese banks and traders; second, position-squaring in frontier-market beta as regional flows rotate back toward the North Asia chip complex. The 1,650–1,670 zone is the next technical support; a close below would signal the breakout failure and invite a deeper mean reversion.

越南 VN-Index 是区域最差市场，大跌 2.18% 至 1,692.90 点（盘中低点 1,690.85）——这是指数冲向 1,740 点后的高速获利回吐。抛售形态（低开低走、盘中无像样反弹）指向机构获利了结而非恐慌性抛售，两个因素加剧了回调：其一，美国《2026 制裁俄罗斯法案》含对协助俄油贸易国家最高 100% 的二级关税授权，给越南银行和贸易体系带来合规悬顶；其二，区域资金流回北亚芯片板块，前沿市场高 beta 仓位被压缩。1,650–1,670 是下一个技术支撑区，若收盘跌破将宣告突破失败，可能引发更深幅度的均值回归。

印度承压于油价: SENSEX fell 0.78% to 76,863.07, extending its consolidation as Brent crude holding near $90-91/bbl keeps India’s inflation and trade-deficit math uncomfortable. HDFC Bank weakness continued to cap the index, though mid- and small-caps outperformed — the same selective, earnings-driven tape seen all week.

印度 SENSEX 跌 0.78% 至 76,863.07 点，延续盘整格局。布伦特原油守在 90-91 美元/桶附近，令印度的通胀和贸易赤字压力难解；HDFC 银行持续走弱压制指数，但中小盘股跑赢——本周以来一直是这种精选个股、业绩驱动的盘面。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

沪股通、深股通净买入数据均显示为 0（数据源可能存在延迟或统计口径切换，参考价值有限）。市场宽度方面：沪股通标的上涨 567 家 / 下跌 1,029 家；深股通上涨 501 家 / 下跌 1,339 家，跌多涨少。

南向资金 #

南向资金逆势净流入：港股通（沪）净买入 42.74 亿港元，港股通（深）净买入 12.28 亿港元，合计约 55 亿港元——在恒指跌逾 1% 的背景下，内地资金继续逢低承接港股，重点方向料为黄金与高股息。

汇率与宏观 #

* 今日 yfinance 数据源触发熔断（rate limit），汇率与美债收益率实时数据暂缺，以公开新闻数据替代：国际金价站上 4,060 美元/盎司（+0.65%），德国商业银行视 4,000 美元为关键支撑，但 9 月美联储可能加息的预期限制金价上行空间；布伦特原油维持在 90-91 美元/桶附近，霍尔木兹风险溢价已大幅回落但仍未完全出清。美元指数 101.13，基本持平。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗局势 / 霍尔木兹海峡：停火维持，谈判时钟滴答作响 #

US-Iran hostilities remain frozen under the June 19 MOU, with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continuing via the northern (Iranian) and southern (Omani) routes while mine-clearance on the central channel is ongoing. The critical variable is the 60-day negotiating clock on Iran’s nuclear program, which expires around mid-August — President Trump has explicitly left the door open to resuming strikes if no final deal emerges. Brent holding near $90-91 suggests the market still carries a residual risk premium: roughly $10-15 above the pre-conflict trajectory. Iran’s insistence that the strait remains under its military “supervision” keeps the tail risk alive.

美伊敌对行动在 6 月 19 日谅解备忘录框架下维持冻结，油轮持续经北侧（伊朗水域）和南侧（阿曼水域）航线通过霍尔木兹海峡，主航道扫雷仍在进行。关键变量是伊朗核计划最终协议的 60 天谈判时限，将于 8 月中旬前后到期——特朗普已明确表示若无最终协议可能重启打击。布伦特守在 90-91 美元附近，表明市场仍计入残余风险溢价（较冲突前轨迹高约 10-15 美元）。伊朗坚持海峡处于其军事"监管"之下，尾部风险未除。

关键时间节点: 8 月中旬（60 天谈判窗口到期）；任何海峡通航中断 headlines。

2. 俄乌战争：二级关税利剑悬顶 #

The “Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026” was introduced in the Senate on July 14 with White House backing — the key market provision is secondary tariffs of up to 100% on the five largest importers of Russian crude/gas (read: India and China first in line). EU sanctions come up for their six-month review on July 31, with a 20th package in preparation. For Asian markets, the direct read-through is India (already down on oil) and any Chinese entities exposed to Russian energy trade facilitation. Ukrainian battlefield momentum and the Patriot resupply via NATO are reducing near-term ceasefire probability, keeping the sanctions path on an escalatory trajectory.

《2026 制裁俄罗斯法案》7 月 14 日提交参议院并获白宫支持——对市场最关键条款是对俄罗斯原油/天然气前五大进口国（即印度、中国首当其冲）最高 100% 的二级关税。欧盟制裁将于 7 月 31 日迎来半年审议，第 20 轮制裁方案在准备中。对亚洲市场的直接传导是印度（已因油价承压）以及涉及俄油贸易便利化的中国实体。乌克兰战场势头与北约爱国者补给降低了近期停火概率，制裁路径仍在升级轨道上。

关键时间节点: 7 月 31 日（欧盟制裁审议）；参议院夏季休会前法案表决窗口。

3. 全球关税/贸易冲突 #

Beyond the Russia secondary-tariff overhang, the tariff tape was quiet today — itself a relief after a volatile first half. The combination of the Iran ceasefire and softer oil has pulled inflation expectations down, but Commerzbank’s flag of a possible Fed September rate hike (not cut) is a reminder that the tariff-driven price pass-through is still working through the pipeline. Tonight’s Alphabet and Tesla earnings will give the first clean read on how US mega-caps are absorbing tariff costs in Q2 guidance.

除俄罗斯二级关税悬顶外，今日关税消息面平静——在动荡的上半年之后这本身就是喘息。伊朗停火和油价回落拉低了通胀预期，但德国商业银行提示美联储 9 月可能加息（而非降息），提醒市场关税驱动的价格传导仍在传导链条中。今晚 Alphabet 和特斯拉财报将首次清晰展示美股巨头如何在二季度指引中消化关税成本。

专家研判 #

相对受益方向:

• 存储/HBM 芯片: SK 海力士、三星电子、澜起科技 — AI 资本开支叙事修复 + 估值已重置
• 黄金矿业: 紫金矿业、赤峰黄金 — 金价 4,000 美元上方 + 地缘对冲需求
• 油运: 中远海能 — 保险费率与绕行红利延续
• 军工: 韩华航空、三菱重工 — 制裁升级周期
• 高股息防御: 港股红利资产 — 红利-科技跷跷板下三季度胜率回升

需要回避方向:

• 印度金融权重: 油价 90+ 与二级关税双重压制
• 越南高 beta: 突破失败风险，等待 1,650-1,670 支撑确认
• 航空/燃油敏感消费: 油价风险溢价未出清
• 涉俄能源贸易中介: 合规风险陡增

情景分析（8 月中旬美伊谈判窗口）:

• 情景 A（概率 50%）: 达成框架协议或延期谈判 — 布伦特回落至 80-85，风险资产全面受益，印越修复
• 情景 B（概率 35%）: 谈判僵持、维持现状 — 油价 85-95 区间震荡，亚洲维持板块轮动格局
• 情景 C（概率 15%）: 谈判破裂、重启打击 — 布伦特冲 100+，全球 risk-off，黄金创新高，KOSPI 反弹夭折

关键主题 #

• 芯片反弹动能衰减: KOSPI 与日经早盘冲高后大幅回落，5%+ 的日内回吐说明 AI 反弹是交易性的，今晚 Alphabet/特斯拉财报决定方向
• 港股科网重挫 vs 黄金爆发: 网易腾讯跌 6% 与赤峰黄金涨 14% 同日出现，资金从 AI 应用向实物资产轮动
• 越南领跌亚太: -2.18% 的突破后回吐，二级关税合规悬顶加剧前沿市场去风险
• 油价 90 美元的隐形税: 布伦特高位持续压制印度等石油进口国，SENSEX 连续走弱
• 南向资金逆势买入: 恒指跌 1.12% 下南向净流入约 55 亿港元，内地资金逢低布局港股

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。