亚洲午盘 — 2026-07-21

市场概览 #

Asian markets split sharply at midday on Tuesday. The global semiconductor de-rating that began last week rolled through Taipei and Tokyo — TAIEX shed 3.71% and the Nikkei extended Friday’s rout with a further 2.77% drop — while Greater China went the other way, with the Hang Seng holding above 25,000 and the CSI 300 up 1.53%. The macro backdrop turned more hostile: President Trump’s July 8 declaration that the US-Iran ceasefire is “over” has kept tanker traffic through Hormuz severely disrupted, pushing WTI up 4.00% to $82.11 and gold to $4,050.70. The yen at 162.47 per dollar is now the market’s other pressure point, with intervention risk rising as imported energy costs bite.

指数表现 #

* 港股与A股指数为 7月20日收盘价 (akshare 数据源)；恒指期货今日早盘报 25,152 点 (+2.79%)，今日盘中恒指在 25,150 附近窄幅震荡。

台湾 #

The TAIEX dropped 3.71% to 43,939.97, the worst session in the region, as the global semiconductor de-grossing trade hit the most TSMC-concentrated index in Asia. This is a continuation of the move that took the Nikkei down 4.03% on Friday: funds are cutting crowded AI-hardware longs on concerns that hyperscaler capex is peaking and valuations have outrun earnings delivery. With TSMC roughly a third of index weight, there is no place to hide when the semis trade goes wrong — breadth was overwhelmingly negative and foreign institutional selling dominated the tape. The Taiwan dollar weakened 0.40% to 32.26 per dollar, confirming capital outflow rather than local profit-taking alone.

深度分析: Two forces are compounding. First, the AI trade is undergoing a momentum reversal after a parabolic first half — the same pattern that hit memory names on July 1 and Japanese semi equipment on Friday. Second, the re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict raises Taiwan’s imported energy bill and strips out the “low inflation” pillar of the bull case. Technically, the index has now given back most of its July gains; the 43,000 area is the next meaningful support, coinciding with the late-June consolidation zone. Watch whether foreign selling slows into the close — a third consecutive day of heavy institutional distribution would signal de-grossing rather than orderly rotation.

台股加权指数重挫 3.71% 至 43,939.97 点，为亚洲表现最差市场。本轮全球半导体降杠杆 (de-grossing，即基金集中削减拥挤的 AI 硬件多头仓位) 直接冲击台积电权重约三分之一的台股。盘面广度极差，外资机构卖压主导，新台币同步走贬 0.40% 至 32.26，确认是资金外流而非单纯本地获利了结。深层原因有二：一是 AI 交易经历上半年抛物线式上涨后出现动能反转 (momentum reversal)，与 7 月 1 日存储股崩盘、上周五日本半导体设备股暴跌同属一轮；二是美伊冲突重新升级推高台湾能源进口成本，抽掉了牛市逻辑中"低通胀"这根支柱。技术面看，指数已回吐 7 月大部分涨幅，43,000 点一线 (6 月下旬整理平台) 是下一个有效支撑。需观察尾盘外资卖压是否收敛——若连续第三天大额卖超，则性质从"有序轮动"转为"全面降仓"。

韩国 #

The KOSPI was essentially flat at 6,806.86 (-0.00%) at midday, stabilizing after last week’s violent correction that took the index to a near three-month low on Monday. The session’s tone was decidedly better than the flat print suggests: bargain hunting emerged in beaten-down memory names, with Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS) both rebounding over 3-4% at their intraday best, and SK Square (402340.KS) +3.0%, Hanwha Aerospace (012450.KS) +4.1%. Fundamentals gave dip-buyers cover: exports in the first 20 days of July surged 52.3% year-on-year, with semiconductor shipments up 180% on sustained AI demand. The won firmed 0.95% to 1,473.79, the strongest currency in the region today. Capping the upside: Middle East escalation and weak US equity futures.

韩国综合指数午盘基本持平于 6,806.86 点 (-0.00%)，在上周暴跌、周一触及近三个月低点后企稳。盘面情绪比指数读数好得多：超跌的存储股出现逢低买盘，三星电子(005930.KS)与SK海力士(000660.KS)盘中一度反弹 3-4%，韩华航空航天(012450.KS) +4.1%。基本面为抄底者提供了底气：7 月前 20 天韩国出口同比激增 52.3%，其中半导体出货增长 180%，AI 需求依然强劲。韩元升值 0.95% 至 1,473.79，为今日亚洲最强货币。压制因素仍是中东局势升级与美股期货走弱。

日本 #

The Nikkei fell 2.77% to 65,868.98, extending Friday’s 4.03% plunge as Japan returned from Monday’s Marine Day holiday and immediately caught down to two sessions of global semi weakness. The same names that led Friday’s rout — semiconductor equipment, AI-adjacent industrials, SoftBank-type leveraged AI plays — remained under pressure. The index is now roughly 10% off its June all-time high of 73,007.

深度分析: The yen is the swing factor. At 162.47 per dollar, USD/JPY is deep in the zone that has historically forced Ministry of Finance action, and the 4% jump in crude makes the import-cost argument for intervention more urgent — a weak yen is no longer “good for exporters” when it imports an energy shock. If the MoF steps in, a yen squeeze would mechanically hit the exporter-heavy Nikkei further; if it doesn’t, the inflation pass-through forces the BoJ’s hand on rates. Either path is headwind for equities in the short run. Support sits at 64,100 (Friday’s close), then 62,400. The base case remains that this is a valuation reset within an intact earnings cycle — July export data across the region still shows AI hardware demand running hot — but positioning needs to wash out before that view can be re-expressed.

日经225下跌 2.77% 至 65,868.98 点。日本周一因海洋日休市，今日开盘即补跌，延续上周五 4.03% 的暴跌 (当周日经累跌 6.4%)。领跌的仍是半导体设备、AI 概念工业股及软银这类高杠杆 AI 标的。指数目前较 6 月历史高点 73,007 已回落约 10%。日元的走向成为关键变量：美元兑日元 162.47 已深入财务省历史干预区间，而油价大涨 4% 让干预理由更加充分——弱势日元在输入能源冲击时不再是"出口利好"。若财务省入场，日元急升将机械性打击出口股权重高的日经；若不干预，输入型通胀又倒逼日本央行加息。两条路径短期都利空股市。下方支撑看 64,100 (上周五收盘)，再往下 62,400。基准判断仍是"盈利周期未破前提下的估值重置"——7 月出口数据显示 AI 硬件需求依旧火热——但需要仓位出清后才能重新表达这一观点。

香港 #

Hong Kong decoupled from the regional tech rout. The Hang Seng closed Monday up 2.36% at 25,143.05, decisively clearing the 25,000 level for the first time in months, and July futures held those gains this morning near 25,152 (+2.79%) before the cash index drifted sideways around 25,154. The bid is coming from two directions: southbound money — Stock Connect (Shenzhen) alone net bought HK$3.06 billion today — and global funds rotating out of expensive North Asian tech into China internet and financials, a trade visible in US-listed China ETFs overnight (FXI +2.67%, KWEB +2.35%). The market is effectively treating China/HK as the anti-AI-crowding hedge: cheap, under-owned, and levered to domestic policy rather than hyperscaler capex.

港股与区域科技股的抛售脱钩。恒指周一收涨 2.36% 至 25,143.05 点，数月来首次明确站上 25,000 关口；7 月期货今早维持涨幅，报 25,152 点 (+2.79%)，现货指数随后在 25,154 附近窄幅波动。买盘来自两个方向：一是南向资金——仅港股通(深)今日净买入即达 30.56 亿港元；二是全球资金从拥挤的东北亚科技股轮动至中国互联网与金融股，隔夜美股上市的中国 ETF 同步走强 (FXI +2.67%、KWEB +2.35%)。市场实际上把中港市场当作"反 AI 拥挤交易"的对冲：估值便宜、持仓低配，且驱动力来自国内政策而非北美云厂商资本开支。

中国 #

A-shares extended their quiet outperformance. The CSI 300 rose 1.53% to 4,598.32 and the Shanghai Composite added 0.85% to 3,796.28 on Monday, and Tuesday’s intraday tape stayed constructive — the Shanghai Composite up ~0.62% and the Shenzhen Component up ~3.41% by midday, with advancing issues comfortably outnumbering decliners on both exchanges (Shanghai 881 vs 727; Shenzhen 1,140 vs 695). The rotation narrative from Hong Kong applies here in stronger form: onshore liquidity is ample, policy expectations into the late-July Politburo meeting are building, and A-share tech exposure skews domestic-substitution rather than global AI capex, insulating it from the Nasdaq-linked selloff. USD/CNY at 6.77 — near multi-year highs for the yuan — removes the currency risk premium that dogged foreign flows in prior years.

A股延续温和跑赢。沪深300周一涨 1.53% 至 4,598.32 点，上证综指涨 0.85% 至 3,796.28 点；周二盘中格局依旧健康——截至午盘上证综指涨约 0.62%，深证成指大涨约 3.41%，两市上涨家数均明显多于下跌家数 (沪市 881 对 727；深市 1,140 对 695)。港股的轮动逻辑在 A 股体现得更强：在岸流动性充裕，市场对 7 月底政治局会议的政策预期升温，且 A 股科技股敞口偏国产替代而非全球 AI 资本开支，使其免受纳斯达克关联抛售的传导。美元兑人民币 6.77，人民币处于多年高位，消除了此前压制外资流入的汇率风险溢价。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

北向资金实时净买入数据自 2024 年 8 月起已停止披露，数据源显示为 0。从盘面广度看，沪股通标的 881 涨 / 727 跌，深股通标的 1,140 涨 / 695 跌，外资可交易范围内市场情绪偏多。

南向资金 #

今日南向资金延续净流入：港股通(沪) 净买入 0.24 亿港元，港股通(深) 净买入 30.56 亿港元，合计约 30.81 亿港元。深港股通标的 366 涨 / 220 跌。南向资金是本轮恒指站上 25,000 点的核心边际买家。

汇率与宏观 #

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 (当前市场主导风险) #

最新态势 (EN): The ceasefire is dead. After accusing Iran of attacking commercial shipping, President Trump declared the three-month truce “over” on July 8 at the NATO summit in Ankara, and US forces carried out dozens of retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian coastal targets. Rystad Energy reports crude tanker traffic through Hormuz “essentially stopped,” with remaining vessels running dark (transponders off). June transits (576) were less than one-fifth of the pre-war norm (~3,100). WTI responded with a 4.00% jump to $82.11 today; Brent is trading above $90. The Bürgenstock negotiating track is frozen, and the key remaining diplomatic lever — OFAC’s General License X authorizing Iranian petroleum transactions — expires August 21, 2026.

最新态势 (中): 停火已实质性破裂。7 月 8 日，特朗普在北约安卡拉峰会上以伊朗袭击商船为由宣布维持三个月的停火"结束"，美军随即对伊朗沿海目标实施数十轮报复性空袭。Rystad Energy 数据显示霍尔木兹海峡油轮通行"基本停止"，仍在通行的船只关闭应答器隐蔽航行。6 月海峡通行量 576 艘次，不足战前常态 (约 3,100 艘次) 的五分之一。WTI 今日大涨 4.00% 至 82.11 美元，布伦特已站上 90 美元。瑞士比尔根山谈判轨道冻结，仅存的缓和杠杆——美国财政部授权伊朗石油交易的 GL X 通用许可——将于 2026 年 8 月 21 日到期。

板块影响:

关键时间节点: 8 月 21 日 GL X 到期 (若不再续期 = 美方重回"极限施压"，油价上行风险)；北约峰会后续声明；Bürgenstock 谈判是否重启。

2. 俄乌战争 (制裁升级线) #

最新态势 (EN): The sanctions vise is tightening on two fronts. The EU’s 21st package — its biggest-ever single listing of ~90 Russian banks, plus a freeze of the oil price cap (blocking an automatic rise from $44.10 toward ~$75 on Hormuz-inflated prices) — was targeted for approval by July 15. In Washington, the revised “Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026” was introduced in the Senate on July 14, with secondary tariffs of up to 100% on the five largest buyers of Russian crude — a direct read-across to India and China. All EU sectoral sanctions expire July 31, 2026 absent renewal.

最新态势 (中): 制裁双轨收紧。欧盟第 21 轮制裁方案 (单次最大规模列入约 90 家俄银行，并冻结俄油价格上限，阻止其随霍尔木兹推高的油价从 44.10 美元自动上浮至约 75 美元) 原定 7 月 15 日前通过。华盛顿方面，修订版《2026 年制裁俄罗斯法案》7 月 14 日提交参议院，授权对俄油前五大买家征收最高 100% 二级关税——直接指向印度和中国。欧盟全部行业制裁将于 7 月 31 日到期 待续期。

板块影响:

关键时间节点: 7 月 31 日欧盟制裁续期表决；美国参议院对《制裁俄罗斯法案》的投票日程。

3. 全球关税与贸易冲突 #

最新态势 (EN): Trade risk has migrated from headline tariffs to sanctions-linked secondary tariffs (above) and export controls. The clearest market signal is in semiconductors: Washington’s controls architecture, the SK Hynix ADR listing on July 10 (which pulled global memory exposure toward US venues), and this week’s AI-capex de-rating are reshaping where and how the region’s tech supply chain is priced. Korea’s July export data (+52.3% overall, semis +180%) shows volumes are still booming — the correction is about price, not demand.

最新态势 (中): 贸易风险的主线已从加征关税 headlines 转向与制裁绑定的二级关税 (见上) 和出口管制。最清晰的市场信号在半导体：美国出口管制体系、SK海力士 7 月 10 日 ADR 上市 (将全球存储股定价重心拉向美国市场)，叠加本周 AI 资本开支降估值，正在重塑亚洲科技供应链的定价地点与方式。韩国 7 月出口数据 (整体 +52.3%、半导体 +180%) 说明出货量仍在爆发——本轮回调杀的是估值，不是需求。

板块影响:

专家研判 #

相对受益方向:

1. 油气上游 — 中国石油(601857)、Inpex(1605.T)：霍尔木兹断航常态化 = 风险溢价长期化
2. 黄金及贵金属 — 紫金矿业(601899)：冲突升级+日元避险功能失灵，黄金承接全部避险流量
3. 军工国防 — 韩华航空航天(012450.KS)、三菱重工(7011.T)：欧亚军费双升，订单能见度到 2028
4. 中国国产替代科技 — 中芯国际(0981.HK)、恒生科技成分：轮动+政策双驱动，南向资金持续买入
5. 油轮航运 — 中远海能(600026)：吨海里需求因绕行结构性抬升

需要回避方向:

1. 亚洲炼化/化工 — 台塑(1301.TW) 等：原料涨、成品滞，价差被挤压
2. 航空 — 国泰(0293.HK)、全日空(9202.T)：燃油+改航成本无法完全转嫁
3. 日台高估值 AI 硬件 — 东京电子(8035.T)、台系散热/服务器组装：de-grossing 未见底，反弹先减仓
4. 对俄油折价采购的炼厂 — 印度私营炼厂：100% 二级关税悬顶

情景分析 (下一关键节点：8 月 21 日 GL X 到期):

关键主题 #

• 半导体 de-grossing: 从 7 月 1 日存储股崩盘到上周五日经暴跌 4%，全球基金削减 AI 硬件拥挤多头的行动仍在继续，台股今日 -3.71% 是最新一站，韩国出口数据 (+180% 芯片出货) 证明这是估值修正而非需求崩塌。
• 美伊停火破裂: 7 月 8 日特朗普宣布停火"结束"后霍尔木兹油轮通行基本停止，WTI +4% 至 82.11 美元，8 月 21 日 GL X 到期是下一个油价引爆点。
• 日元困局: 美元/日元 162.47 深入干预区间，油价上涨让财务省干预与央行加息的"双选困境"同时逼近，日经腹背受敌。
• 资金轮动至中国资产: 恒指站上 25,000、南向单日净买入超 30 亿港元、FXI/KWEB 隔夜涨逾 2%，中港市场成为"反 AI 拥挤"的避险轮动方向。
• 制裁二级关税化: 欧盟第 21 轮对俄制裁与美国《制裁俄罗斯法案》把贸易武器瞄准俄油买家，能源供应链定价面临新一轮重估。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。