亚洲午盘 — 2026-07-20

市场概览 #

亚洲市场周一呈现剧烈分化。地缘端，伊朗宣布霍尔木兹海峡通航量"降至零"，美军连续第八夜空袭伊朗目标，WTI 原油大涨 5.19% 至 83.73 美元，布伦特一度突破 91 美元。权益端，韩国复市后继续去杠杆抛售，台股跟跌 4.28%，日本因海洋日休市；与之形成鲜明对照，A 股与港股低开后逆势反弹，沪指午前涨 1.18%，恒指盘中涨约 2%，资金明显切向电力、公用事业等防御与高股息方向。

指数表现 #

⚠️ 数据说明：数据供应商推送的 KOSPI 涨跌幅基于异常的前收基准（隐含前收 7,475.94 点，为 6 月初水平）。多家媒体盘中报道显示，KOSPI 今日实际前收约 6,821 点，低开 2.6% 后一度下探 6,498 点（约 -4.7%），随后外资逢低买入令跌幅明显收窄。正文分析以经核实的盘中数据为准，表格数值保留供应商原始推送。

注：今日盘中动态（陆港通数据）：上证综指 +1.18%、深证成指 +0.21%、恒生指数 +2.08%。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX slid 4.28% to 42,823.99, the heaviest single-day loss in the region, as the de-grossing wave sweeping Korea’s memory complex spilled directly into Taipei. With Samsung Electronics and SK hynix gapping down at the open and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index now in a technical bear market (down over 20% from its June 22 peak), foreign investors extended their reduction of crowded AI-hardware positions. Taiwan’s index, dominated by TSMC and the broader foundry/OSAT supply chain, trades as a high-beta proxy for the same memory supercycle narrative that is now being actively unwound in Seoul. The Taiwan dollar weakened 0.73% to 32.40 per USD, confirming capital outflow rather than mere equity rotation. SK hynix chairman Chey Tae-won’s weekend comment that memory prices “must come down, current prices are abnormal” added a fundamental argument to what had been a purely positioning-driven selloff, and likely weighed on sentiment across the island’s memory-linked names.

台湾加权指数重挫 4.28%，收报 42,823.99 点，为区内最大单日跌幅。韩国存储板块的去杠杆抛售直接外溢至台北：三星电子与 SK 海力士开盘跳水，费城半导体指数已较 6 月 22 日高点回撤逾 20%、进入技术性熊市，外资持续削减拥挤的 AI 硬件多头仓位。台股指数由台积电及代工/封测供应链主导，本质上是同一条"存储超级周期"叙事的高贝塔映射，当首尔开始平仓，台北难以独善其身。新台币兑美元贬值 0.73% 至 32.40，印证本轮是资金外流而非单纯的板块轮动。SK 海力士董事长崔泰源周末称存储价格"必须下降、当前价格不正常"，为这轮原本由仓位驱动的抛售增添了基本面论据，进一步压制台湾存储相关个股情绪。

韩国 #

Korea was the epicenter again. Reopening after Friday’s holiday, the KOSPI gapped down 2.6% to 6,643.58 and extended losses to an intraday low of 6,498 (roughly -4.7%) before foreign investors stepped in — net buyers of 278.4 billion won in early trade, concentrated in electronics — while retail sold 300.8 billion won into the dip. The index is now firmly in a technical bear market, down about 25% from its June peak with roughly $1 trillion of market capitalization erased, and KOSPI’s 60-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100 has climbed to 0.46, making Seoul the global market’s opening bell for AI sentiment. The structural story remains leverage: single-stock 2x leveraged ETFs on Samsung and SK hynix have forced daily rebalancing sales into weakness, margin calls have swept through retail accounts since July 1, and regulators are now weighing higher minimum margin requirements for leveraged products. President Lee Jae-myung has publicly conceded the market is “quite unstable,” and the opposition is turning the bust into a political issue.

There was, however, a counter-narrative at midday. SK hynix reversed an early 5%+ drop to trade higher, with chairman Chey Tae-won forecasting AI semiconductor demand growth of 60–100% next year and overall memory demand up 50–60%, with no meaningful capacity additions planned by any major maker — a supply-demand gap he described as approaching “panic” levels among buyers. The won firmed 1.18% to 1,480.08 per dollar after opening at 1,488.3, though the Bank of Korea’s first rate hike since 2023 and surging oil import costs keep the currency biased weaker. Watch whether foreign dip-buying can stabilize the tape ahead of SK hynix’s Q2 results, where consensus operating profit (~65 trillion won) sits above Korea Investment & Securities’ 60.4 trillion estimate — a miss either way now moves global semis, not just Seoul.

韩国再次成为风暴中心。上周五休市后复市，KOSPI 低开 2.6% 至 6,643.58 点，盘中最低下探 6,498 点（约 -4.7%），随后外资进场抄底——早盘净买入 2,784 亿韩元，集中于电子板块——而散户净卖出 3,008 亿韩元。指数已确认进入技术性熊市：较 6 月高点回撤约 25%，市值蒸发约 1 万亿美元，KOSPI 与纳斯达克 100 指数的 60 日相关性升至 0.46，首尔事实上成为全球 AI 情绪的"开盘钟"。结构性症结仍是杠杆：追踪三星、海力士的单股 2 倍杠杆 ETF 被迫在下跌中每日再平衡卖出，7 月初以来追缴保证金潮席卷散户账户，监管层正在研究提高杠杆产品的最低保证金要求。总统李在明公开承认股市"相当不稳定"，反对党也正把这场崩盘政治化。

不过午盘出现了反向叙事。SK 海力士从早盘逾 5% 的跌幅中反转翻红，董事长崔泰源预计明年 AI 半导体需求增长 60%-100%、整体存储需求增长 50%-60%，且各大厂商几乎没有实质性扩产计划——他形容买家争夺供应的激烈程度已接近"恐慌"。韩元兑美元走强 1.18% 至 1,480.08（开盘曾报 1,488.3），但韩国央行 2023 年以来首次加息、叠加油价暴涨带来的进口成本压力，韩元方向仍偏弱。接下来关注外资抄底能否在 SK 海力士二季度业绩前稳住盘面——市场一致预期营业利润约 65 万亿韩元，高于韩国投资证券 60.4 万亿韩元的预测，无论超预期还是低于预期，波动的都不只是首尔，而是全球半导体板块。

日本 #

Japanese markets were closed for Marine Day, leaving Friday’s ugly print as the reference: the Nikkei 225 fell 4.61% to 64,141.12, with memory maker Kioxia plunging more than 16% in a single session as the Korea-originated de-rating hit Japanese semiconductor names. USD/JPY sits at 162.36, the yen pinned near multi-decade lows — a level that historically invites verbal intervention from the MOF but currently reflects the oil-import shock Japan is most exposed to in Asia, with the bulk of its crude transiting the now-closed Strait of Hormuz. When Tokyo reopens Tuesday, expect catch-up volatility in both directions: the Friday selloff has not yet digested the weekend’s escalation (US strikes on the Darkhovin nuclear construction site, Hormuz transit at zero), while any rebound in Korean memory names would mechanically lift the Tokyo complex.

日本市场今日因海洋日休市，参考基准停留在上周五的难看数据：日经 225 大跌 4.61% 收报 64,141.12 点，存储厂商铠侠单日暴跌逾 16%，源自韩国的估值下修横扫日本半导体板块。美元/日元报 162.36，日元被压在数十年低位附近——这个水平历史上通常会引来日本财务省的口头干预，但当前反映的是日本在亚洲最直接承受的原油进口冲击：其大部分原油运输需经过现已关闭的霍尔木兹海峡。周二东京复市后预计出现双向的补涨补跌波动：上周五的抛售尚未消化周末的升级（美军袭击达尔霍温在建核电站工地、海峡通航归零），而韩国存储股的任何反弹又会机械式带动东京同类板块。

香港 #

Hong Kong decoupled from the regional rout. After closing down 1.78% at 24,562.24 on Friday (a week in which the HSI still gained 1.6%, outperforming every North Asian peer), the index rebounded about 2% intraday on Monday with strongly positive breadth on the Stock Connect boards (460 advancers vs 128 decliners). Southbound flows were mixed in direction but net positive — a combined net buy of about HK$416 million, with the Shenzhen leg (+HK$1.54bn) more than offsetting the Shanghai leg’s net sell (-HK$1.12bn). Energy names found support from the crude spike, and mainland policy signals — including the CSRC’s announced symposium on promoting stable and healthy capital-market development — underpinned risk appetite. Hong Kong-listed leveraged products tracking Samsung and SK hynix remained the market’s tail-risk exhibit, swinging violently in both directions.

港股与区内抛售脱钩。恒指上周五收跌 1.78% 报 24,562.24 点（当周仍累涨 1.6%，跑赢所有东北亚市场），周一盘中反弹约 2%，陆港通口径下市场宽度明显偏多（上涨 460 家对下跌 128 家）。南向资金方向分化但净额为正——合计净买入约 4.16 亿港元，深股通渠道（+15.41 亿港元）完全覆盖沪股通渠道的净卖出（-11.25 亿港元）。油价暴涨支撑能源股，内地政策信号——包括证监会宣布将召开促进资本市场稳定健康发展座谈会——托底风险偏好。港交所挂牌的追踪三星、海力士的杠杆产品仍是市场尾部风险的标本，双向剧烈摆动。

中国 #

A-shares staged a relief rebound after their worst week in months (the Shanghai Composite fell 5.81% last week, CSI 300 -5.26%). By midday the Shanghai Composite was up 1.18% and the Shenzhen Component +0.21%, with breadth firmly positive (Shanghai: 1,038 up / 582 down; Shenzhen: 1,087 up / 761 down). The tape showed a clean defensive rotation: sector flow data showed power utilities (+¥412mn) and public utilities (+¥370mn) leading inflows — beneficiaries of both the risk-off bid and Friday’s NDRC gasoline/diesel price hike (¥300/¥290 per tonne) — while PCB (-¥539mn), electronic components (-¥516mn) and semiconductors (-¥320mn) saw the heaviest outflows as the Korean memory unwind hit A-share hardware. Computing/IT services attracted modest inflows (+¥80mn), with optical-fiber names buoyed by Changfei’s guidance for H1 net profit growth of 711–914% on AI datacenter demand. CNY firmed slightly to 6.77 per dollar.

A 股在经历数月以来最差一周（沪指周跌 5.81%、沪深 300 跌 5.26%）后走出修复性反弹。午前上证综指涨 1.18%，深证成指涨 0.21%，市场宽度偏多（沪市上涨 1,038 家/下跌 582 家；深市上涨 1,087 家/下跌 761 家）。盘面呈现清晰的防御切换：行业资金流显示电力（+4.12 亿元）、公用事业（+3.70 亿元）领涨流入——既是避险买盘，也受益于周五发改委上调汽柴油价格（每吨 300 元/290 元）；而印制电路板（-5.39 亿元）、元件（-5.16 亿元）、半导体（-3.20 亿元）流出最重，韩国存储链平仓冲击 A 股硬件。计算机/IT 服务获小幅流入（+0.80 亿元），光纤股受长飞光纤上半年净利润预增 711%-914%（AI 数据中心需求）提振。人民币兑美元小幅走强至 6.77。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

沪股通、深股通净买入数据今日显示为 0（北向资金实时净买入数据自 2024 年 8 月起已停止盘中披露）。从陆股通个股宽度看，沪市上涨 1,038 家、下跌 582 家，深市上涨 1,087 家、下跌 761 家，配合指数反弹，推断外资情绪企稳。

南向资金 #

• 港股通(沪)：净卖出 11.25 亿港元
• 港股通(深)：净买入 15.41 亿港元
• 合计：净买入约 4.16 亿港元

南向资金在恒指反弹约 2% 的交易日仅小幅净买入，说明本轮港股反弹更多由空头回补与本地/海外资金驱动，内资追高意愿克制。

汇率与宏观 #

油价是唯一的主线：WTI 大涨 5.19% 至 83.73 美元，布伦特盘中突破 91 美元，均为 6 月 11 日以来新高，上周累计涨幅已逾 15%。黄金反而走弱至 4,027.80 美元——市场将美联储 9 月加息概率定价至 56%，油价引发的通胀再定价压制了无息资产，华尔街对金价能否守住 4,000 美元分歧加大。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡（当前市场第一驱动） #

EN: The June ceasefire framework (the “Islamabad MoU”) has definitively collapsed. Iran’s Fars News, citing IRGC Navy sources, reported Sunday that Strait of Hormuz transit has “fallen to zero” and will remain closed while US “provocations” continue. US Central Command confirmed an eighth consecutive night of airstrikes, including a strike on the Darkhovin nuclear power plant construction site, which Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization condemned as a “terrorist attack.” Israel’s chief of staff said the IDF is ready to resume operations immediately. President Trump’s July 13 proposal to charge a 20% “transit fee” as self-declared “guardian of the Strait” was walked back within a day after pushback from the IMO and allies. With OECD inventories at their lowest since 2003 and US stockpiles at 2014 lows, the price elasticity to any supply headline is extreme. The next catalyst is whether a new negotiation round materializes — Washington says talks are contingent on Iran’s attendance, which Tehran has not confirmed.

中文：6 月的停火框架（《伊斯兰堡谅解备忘录》）已彻底破裂。伊朗法尔斯通讯社周日援引伊斯兰革命卫队海军消息称，霍尔木兹海峡通航量已"降至零"，只要美国继续挑衅，海峡将保持关闭。美国中央司令部确认已连续第八夜空袭，并打击了达尔霍温在建核电站工地，伊朗原子能组织谴责为"恐怖袭击"。以色列国防军总参谋长表示以军已做好立即恢复作战的准备。特朗普 7 月 13 日自称"海峡守护者"、拟对通行货物征收 20% 费用的提议，在国际海事组织与盟友反对下一天之内被撤回。OECD 库存已降至 2003 年以来最低、美国库存降至 2014 年以来最低，低库存环境下任何供应端消息的价格弹性都被极度放大。下一个催化剂是新一轮谈判能否成行——美方称谈判取决于伊朗是否出席，德黑兰尚未确认。

受影响板块：

关键时间节点：本周关注美伊是否重回谈判桌（美方称谈判代表随时可赴巴基斯坦）；每日美军空袭行动是否停止是海峡复航的前置信号。

2. 俄乌战争 #

EN: No fresh market-moving escalation in the past 24 hours. The conflict remains a background driver of European defense spending and energy-security policy rather than an Asia pricing factor today. Chinese commentary over the past week has debated whether the war is approaching an inflection point; for markets, the operative channel is secondary — any ceasefire progress would remove part of the geopolitical risk premium in crude, partially offsetting the Middle East bid.

中文：过去 24 小时无新的、足以驱动市场的升级事件。俄乌冲突当前主要通过欧洲军费开支和能源安全政策影响市场，并非今日亚洲定价的直接变量。过去一周中文舆论在讨论战争是否临近"拐点"；对市场而言，有效的传导渠道是间接的——任何停火进展都会削减原油中的地缘风险溢价，部分对冲中东带来的油价上行。

受影响板块：

关键时间节点：关注新一轮俄乌接触与美方对俄制裁政策的任何调整。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

EN: No new tariff measures landed today, but two trade-adjacent developments matter. First, Trump’s proposed 20% Hormuz transit fee — though reversed — signals a willingness to weaponize maritime chokepoints as trade policy, a precedent Asian exporters are noting. Second, intensifying competition from Chinese AI models is adding pressure to the memory trade narrative, compounding the positioning unwind in Seoul and Taipei. The semiconductor tariff overhang (US sectoral tariffs on chips) remains unresolved and is a standing risk for Taiwan and Korea supply chains.

中文：今日无新增关税措施，但两条与贸易相关的动向值得注意。其一，特朗普提出的 20% 霍尔木兹"通行费"虽然一日内撤回，但释放了对海上咽喉要道进行贸易武器化的信号，亚洲出口经济体都在记录这一先例。其二，中国 AI 模型竞争加剧正在给存储交易叙事增压，与首尔、台北的仓位平仓形成共振。悬而未决的美国半导体行业关税仍是台韩供应链的常备风险。

受影响板块：

关键时间节点：美国半导体关税细则的落地时间仍未明确，任何官宣都将直接冲击台韩。

4. 其他：韩国杠杆危机（市场结构性事件） #

EN: Korea’s leverage unwind is now a standalone risk event independent of geopolitics. Since July 1, forced liquidations have swept through leveraged retail accounts, over 1.2 million margin accounts have faced calls, and 13 of 14 single-stock 2x leveraged ETFs on Samsung/SK hynix trade below their 20,000-won issue price. KOSPI has triggered circuit breakers seven times in 2026 — more than half of all activations since the rule was created in 2000. Regulators are considering higher margin floors for leveraged products; the opposition People’s Power Party is demanding forced delistings, calling KOSPI “a casino.”

中文：韩国去杠杆已是独立于地缘政治的独立风险事件。7 月 1 日以来，强制平仓潮席卷杠杆散户账户，超 120 万个保证金账户触及追缴线，14 只三星/海力士单股 2 倍杠杆 ETF 中 13 只跌破 2 万韩元发行价。2026 年内 KOSPI 已七次触发熔断——超过 2000 年熔断制度设立以来总次数的一半。监管层正考虑提高杠杆产品保证金下限；最大反对党国民力量党要求强制退市，称"KOSPI 已沦为赌场"。

受影响板块：

关键时间节点：SK 海力士二季度业绩（市场预期营业利润约 65 万亿韩元）；韩国监管关于杠杆 ETF 保证金新规的公布。

专家研判 #

相对受益方向：

1. 油气上游 — 中国海洋石油(0883.HK)、中国石油(601857.SH)：油价+15%/周且低库存放大弹性
2. 油运 — 中远海能(600026.SH)：VLCC 运价 +30%，海峡关闭=运距+保费双升
3. 电力/公用事业 — 长江电力等：今日 A 股流入前两名（+4.12 亿/+3.70 亿），避险+电价联动
4. 国防军工 — 中航沈飞等：中东+俄乌双冲突线的军费预期
5. AI 算力国产化 — 寒武纪(688256.SH)：中国模型竞争+长飞光纤预增 711%-914% 印证算力基建景气

需要回避方向：

1. 韩国存储正股及杠杆产品 — 去杠杆负反馈未走完，崔泰源"价格必须下降"言论压制板块估值
2. 航空 — 燃油成本冲击直接，欧洲同业已先行下跌
3. A 股 PCB/元件/半导体硬件 — 今日资金流出最重（-5.39 亿/-5.16 亿/-3.20 亿），韩股传染未结束
4. 石化下游 — 原料涨价挤压价差

情景分析（关键节点：霍尔木兹复航 / 美伊谈判重启）：

关键主题 #

• 霍尔木兹"零通航"：伊朗再度封锁海峡，油价单周涨逾 15%，能源取代 AI 成为亚洲市场第一定价主线
• KOSPI 技术性熊市：较 6 月高点回撤 25%、市值蒸发约 1 万亿美元，杠杆 ETF 每日再平衡制造负反馈，首尔已成全球 AI 情绪的开盘钟
• 台韩半导体 contagion：台股跟跌 4.28%，新台币贬值确认资金外流；崔泰源"价格必须下降"给超级周期叙事泼冷水
• A 股港股逆势反弹：沪指 +1.18%、恒指 +2%，资金切向电力/公用事业，证监会稳定市场座谈会释放政策暖意
• 通胀再定价：油价冲击令美联储 9 月加息概率升至 56%，黄金在 4,000 美元关口承压，避险逻辑让位于利率逻辑

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。