亚洲午盘 — 2026-07-15

市场概览 #

亚洲股市午盘普遍收涨，风险偏好在美国6月CPI低于预期后有所修复，但WTI原油因地缘紧张单日飙升近12%，为反弹增添复杂性。韩国KOSPI在周一暴跌后强劲反弹逾2%，日本日经225跟随科技股回升，中国A股在GDP不及预期的背景下仍录得普涨，港股随南向资金持续流入小幅上扬。

指数表现 #

台湾 #

The TAIEX added 0.60% to 45,627.35 in a relatively muted session, with the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) unchanged overnight. Trading breadth was modest as chip-heavyweights absorbed mixed regional cues: TSMC (2330.TW) held firm while broader AI supply-chain names saw light profit-taking after the recent volatility. Foreign flows remained cautious, and the Taiwan dollar traded slightly weaker against the dollar at 32.16, bucking the broader Asian FX appreciation. Investors are weighing the resilience of AI capex demand against the risk of further export restrictions and the still-fragile Strait of Hormuz shipping outlook.

台湾加权指数午盘小涨0.60%至45,627.35点，隔夜EWT收平。台积电等权重股表现相对稳健，但AI供应链部分个股出现轻微获利了结。外资态度审慎，台币兑美元逆势微贬至32.16。市场仍在评估AI资本开支需求的韧性，以及出口管制和霍尔木兹海峡航运前景的不确定性。

韩国 #

The KOSPI surged 2.18% to 7,404.61, recovering part of Monday’s 8.95% wipeout that was triggered by a leveraged-ETF unwind and heavy selling in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Today, both memory giants bounced, with SK Hynix and Samsung leading the index higher after their worst single-day drop since the recent volatility began. Foreign investors remained net sellers earlier in the week, but local retail buying and short-covering provided support. The market is now looking ahead to the Bank of Korea policy meeting on July 16, where hawkish guidance could renew pressure on rate-sensitive growth names. The won strengthened 0.74% against the dollar to 1,492.18, offering some relief to import-heavy names.

韩国综合指数午盘大涨2.18%至7,404.61点，部分收复周一因杠杆ETF平仓、三星电子与SK海力士暴跌而出现的8.95%失地。今日两大存储龙头反弹，带动指数走高。外资本周初仍为净卖出，但散户承接与空头回补提供支撑。市场焦点转向7月16日韩国央行议息会议，若释放鹰派信号，可能重新施压利率敏感的成长股。韩元兑美元升值0.74%至1,492.18，对进口型企业构成一定缓冲。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 climbed 1.21% to 68,563.49 as technology and AI-related names rebounded. Kioxia Holdings jumped 6.7%, Advantest rose 4.4%, Tokyo Electron gained 1.6%, and Lasertec added 6.9%, tracking the recovery in global semiconductor sentiment. The yen held steady near 162.21 per dollar, leaving exporters with a mixed read. Domestic data were soft: Japan’s machinery orders fell more than expected in May, underscoring broad-based weakness in business investment. The Bank of Japan’s next policy meeting is scheduled for July 30-31, and markets expect the central bank to maintain its current stance while assessing the impact of higher oil prices on inflation expectations.

日经225指数午盘上涨1.21%至68,563.49点，科技与AI相关个股反弹。铠侠大涨6.7%，爱德万测试涨4.4%，东京电子涨1.6%，Lasertec涨6.9%，跟随全球半导体情绪修复。日元兑美元持稳于162.21附近，对出口商影响不一。国内数据偏弱：5月日本机械订单跌幅超预期，显示企业投资普遍疲软。日本央行下次议息会议定于7月30-31日，市场预计央行将维持当前立场，同时评估油价上涨对通胀预期的影响。

香港 #

The Hang Seng Index edged up 0.52% to 24,340.73, supported by strong southbound inflows through the Stock Connect. Combined southbound net buying via the Shanghai and Shenzhen channels reached approximately HKD 93.8 billion, indicating mainland investors continued to accumulate Hong Kong-listed China assets. Property and consumer discretionary names outperformed, while internet platforms were mixed. The market absorbed the weaker-than-expected China Q2 GDP print without significant selling, suggesting investors are already positioned for a policy response from Beijing.

恒生指数午盘小幅上涨0.52%至24,340.73点，港股通南向资金持续流入提供支撑。沪股通与深股通南向合计净买入约938亿港元，显示内地投资者继续增持港股中国资产。地产与可选消费板块表现较好，互联网平台表现分化。市场对中国二季度GDP不及预期反应平淡，暗示投资者已提前押注北京将推出政策应对。

中国 #

Mainland equities rallied despite a softer GDP report. The CSI 300 gained 2.15% to 4,796.50, the Shanghai Composite rose 1.36% to 3,967.13, and the Shenzhen Component surged 2.77% to 14,924.87. China’s Q2 GDP grew 4.3% year-on-year, missing the 4.5% consensus and slowing from 5.0% in Q1, the weakest pace since Q4 2022. Sequential growth was 0.9%. The market interpreted the miss as raising the probability of additional monetary and fiscal support, including potential reserve-requirement ratio cuts and stepped-up local-government bond issuance. Sector rotation favored energy, industrials, and innovation drugs, while semiconductor equipment names remained under pressure. Northbound flow data were mixed in the morning, with some third-party sources reporting modest net buying.

A股午盘在GDP数据偏弱的背景下仍录得普涨。沪深300涨2.15%至4,796.50点，上证综指涨1.36%至3,967.13点，深证成指大涨2.77%至14,924.87点。中国二季度GDP同比增长4.3%，低于市场预期的4.5%，较一季度5.0%放缓，为2022年四季度以来最弱增速；环比增长0.9%。市场将该数据解读为政策加码概率上升，包括可能的降准和地方政府债券发行提速。板块轮动偏向能源、工业、创新药，半导体设备板块仍承压。北向资金早间数据存在分歧，部分第三方渠道显示小幅净买入。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

北向资金早间数据存在缺口：行情JSON显示沪股通、深股通净买入均为0，可能为数据源未更新或接口异常。第三方渠道显示7月15日北向资金整体净买入约10.45亿元人民币，主要配置非半导体板块。建议以收盘后官方披露为准。

南向资金 #

南向资金维持强劲流入：

• 港股通(沪)净买入：39.89亿港元
• 港股通(深)净买入：53.95亿港元
• 合计净买入：约93.84亿港元

资金持续南下抢筹港股中国资产，与A股形成联动。

汇率与宏观 #

WTI原油单日飙升11.89%至79.90美元，是今日最受关注的宏观变量。黄金回落1.59%，显示资金从避险资产部分回流风险资产；美元指数小幅走低，亚洲货币普遍对美元升值。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势

Renewed US-Iran military action around the Strait of Hormuz has pushed the geopolitical risk premium back into oil prices. On July 14, Iran struck two UAE oil tankers in Omani territorial waters, killing one Indian sailor and injuring several crew members; India subsequently summoned Iranian diplomats. Iran’s parliament has introduced a bill on the strategic management of the Strait of Hormuz, and the United States has reimposed a blockade and sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Tanker traffic remains below pre-war levels, insurance costs are elevated, and the US Embassy in the UAE cancelled consular appointments through July 15.

7月14日，伊朗在阿曼领海水域袭击两艘阿联酋油轮，造成一名印度籍船员死亡、多人受伤，印度随后召见伊朗外交官。伊朗议会已提出关于霍尔木兹海峡战略管理的法案，美国则恢复对伊朗石油销售的封锁与制裁。海峡航运量仍低于战前水平，保险成本居高不下，美国驻阿联酋使领馆取消7月15日前领事预约。

受影响板块分析

关键时间节点

• 7月15日：美国驻阿联酋使领馆领事服务恢复情况
• 7月16日：霍尔木兹海峡航运实时流量与保险费率更新
• 7月下旬：美国与伊朗经由第三方调解的谈判窗口

2. 俄乌战争 #

最新态势

The EU is expected to approve its 21st sanctions package against Russia by July 15, with a key aim of freezing the Russian oil price cap to prevent Moscow from benefiting from elevated global oil prices. The current cap is $44.10 per barrel and would otherwise reset higher due to the Hormuz-driven oil spike. The package also targets Russia’s shadow fleet and maritime services. Meanwhile, EU economic sanctions have been renewed until July 31, 2026.

欧盟计划于7月15日前通过对俄罗斯第21轮制裁方案，核心目标是冻结俄罗斯石油价格上限，防止莫斯科因全球油价上涨而获得更多能源收入。当前价格上限为每桶44.10美元，若不冻结，霍尔木兹局势推动的油价飙升将使上限自动上调。该方案还针对俄罗斯影子船队与海运服务。与此同时，欧盟对俄经济制裁已延长至2026年7月31日。

受影响板块分析

关键时间节点

• 7月15日：欧盟第21轮制裁最终表决
• 7月31日：欧盟对俄经济制裁到期评估
• 2026年四季度：欧洲冬季天然气储备目标审查

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

最新态势

The US-China tariff truce agreed in late 2025 remains in place, but structural tensions persist. The US has reached trade agreements with multiple partners including Switzerland, South Korea, Japan, the EU, and China, though not all deals are fully implemented. Semiconductor tariffs remain a key uncertainty: the Trump administration has yet to announce final rates for chips and data-center equipment, which could significantly raise AI infrastructure costs. The “China + 1” supply-chain shift continues, benefiting Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs while keeping China central in upstream components and capital goods.

2025年底达成的中美关税休战仍在延续，但结构性紧张未消。美国已与瑞士、韩国、日本、欧盟和中国等多个贸易伙伴达成协议，但部分协议尚未完全落地。半导体关税仍是关键不确定性：特朗普政府尚未公布芯片与数据中心设备的最终税率，这可能显著抬升AI基础设施成本。“中国+1"供应链转移持续推进，利好东南亚制造枢纽，但中国在上游零部件与资本品领域仍居核心地位。

受影响板块分析

关键时间节点

• 2026年下半年：美国半导体关税最终税率公布
• 2026年：USMCA协议复审
• 持续关注：特朗普政府对中国科技出口限制更新

专家研判 #

相对受益方向

1. 上游油气 / 油服：油价飙升直接改善盈利，具备产量弹性的标的受益最明显，如中海油(00883)、中国石油(601857)、斯伦贝谢。
2. 国防军工：霍尔木兹与俄乌冲突双重背景下，全球军费上调趋势延续，欧洲与亚洲军工供应链订单能见度提升。
3. 新能源 / 电动车：高油价强化替代能源叙事，比亚迪(002594)、宁德时代(300750)及光伏龙头短期受情绪提振。
4. 航运 / 油运：运价与保险溢价上行，油运企业盈利预期改善。
5. 黄金与实物资产：若地缘冲突升级，黄金仍具对冲价值，但当前金价已从高位回落，需观察避险需求是否回归。

需要回避方向

1. 航空 / 航运成本敏感型消费：燃油成本上升直接侵蚀利润，且票价传导存在时滞。
2. 高估值AI硬件 / 存储：韩国市场已展示杠杆化持仓的脆弱性，SK海力士、三星电子等龙头波动率极高。
3. 欧洲能源密集型化工：能源成本与供应不确定性上升，利润率持续承压。
4. 高度依赖中东航线的物流与贸易企业：若霍尔木兹通行风险升级，运营中断与保险成本将显著上升。

情景分析

关键主题 #

• 油价冲击重燃：WTI单日暴涨近12%，霍尔木兹海峡局势是核心变量，市场正在重新定价地缘风险溢价。
• 韩国芯片高波动：KOSPI在周一暴跌逾8%后今日反弹逾2%，杠杆ETF与外资动向仍是关键观察点。
• 中国经济放缓与政策预期：Q2 GDP增长4.3%不及预期，但A股选择交易政策宽松预期而非经济下行。
• 南向资金持续流入港股：约93.8亿港元净买入显示内地资金对港股中国资产的配置意愿仍然强烈。
• 日元与亚洲FX稳定：美元指数回落，人民币、韩元对美元升值，为亚洲风险资产提供温和支撑。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。