亚洲午盘 — 2026-07-13

市场概览 #

亚太市场周一午盘呈现极端分化。韩国 KOSPI 在半导体重仓股与杠杆盘平仓压力下重挫 14.27%，创近年来最大单日跌幅，风险情绪迅速传导至日本与台股；恒生指数则逆势收红，南向资金持续流入提供支撑。原油在地缘冲突阴影下小幅反弹，美元指数持稳于 101 上方，美国 10 年期国债收益率升至 4.57%，压制成长股估值。

指数表现 #

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX slipped 0.30% to 45,342.73, a relatively contained pullback given the cross-asset de-risking across North Asia. The index benefited from Friday’s strong U.S. tech rebound and resilient Taiwan futures sentiment, though large-cap dividend ex-dates and record foreign short positions in futures kept upside capped. Semiconductor bellwethers remained the focal point, with investors weighing AI capex durability against the ongoing Korean chip rout.

台湾加权指数下跌 0.30% 至 45,342.73 点，相对北亚其他市场显得抗跌。美股科技板块上周五反弹、台指期夜盘情绪偏暖提供支撑，但大型股除息与外资在期指留存的创纪录空单压制上行空间。半导体龙头仍是关注焦点，市场正在 AI 资本开支韧性与韩国芯片股暴跌之间重新定价。

韩国 #

The KOSPI collapsed 14.27% to 6,902.34, wiping out more than KRW 1.1 trillion in index points in a single session. The selling was concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which together account for nearly half of the benchmark’s market cap. A confluence of record retail margin debt, sustained foreign outflows, and a global reassessment of AI memory demand triggered forced deleveraging. The move eclipses the 8% circuit-breaker session seen in early June and underscores the structural risk of an index that behaves like a leveraged semiconductor proxy.

韩国综合指数暴跌 14.27% 至 6,902.34 点，单日蒸发超过 1,148 点。抛压集中在三星电子与 SK 海力士，两家公司合计占 KOSPI 市值近半壁江山。创纪录的散户融资余额、持续的外资流出，以及全球对 AI 存储需求预期的重估共同触发强制去杠杆。此次跌幅远超 6 月初触发熔断的 8% 跌幅，凸显出 KOSPI 作为「杠杆化半导体-proxy」的结构性脆弱。

深度分析

From a technical perspective, the KOSPI has now retraced sharply from its 2026 highs near 8,930. Volume breadth was catastrophic, with downside leaders dominating advancing issues by a wide margin. The won (USD/KRW -1.50%) initially weakened but recovered somewhat as exporters repatriated dollars, masking the true foreign-selling pressure. Policy makers are likely to activate market-stabilization funds and review short-selling rules if the index approaches the 6,800–7,000 psychological band.

从技术角度看，KOSPI 自 2026 年高点 8,930 附近大幅回撤。市场广度崩坏，下跌家数远超上涨家数。韩元（美元/韩元 -1.50%）起初走弱，但出口商美元结汇提供了部分支撑，掩盖了真实的外资抛压。若指数逼近 6,800–7,000 点心理关口，监管层很可能启动股市稳定基金并检讨融券规则。

The AI memory supercycle narrative is not dead, but the market is repricing the slope of demand growth. HBM order visibility remains strong through year-end, yet any guidance cut from U.S. AI chip bellwethers would extend the de-grossing. For now, the path of least resistance is lower until margin debt levels normalize and foreign ownership stops falling.

AI 存储超级周期叙事并未终结，但市场正在下调需求增长斜率。高带宽存储（HBM）订单能见度仍可延续至年底，然而任何美国 AI 芯片龙头的指引下修都会加剧减仓。在融资余额回归常态、外资持股停止下滑之前，最小阻力方向仍偏下。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 fell 1.87% to 66,978.39, dragged lower by semiconductor equipment makers and automakers as the yen stayed firm around 162 per dollar. Japan’s exposure to the global chip capex cycle made it a natural recipient of the Korean-led risk-off, while domestic political considerations ahead of a possible snap election added a layer of event risk. Exporters underperformed as the yen’s resilience trimmed earnings translation assumptions.

日经 225 下跌 1.87% 至 66,978.39 点，半导体设备与汽车板块领跌，日元兑美元维持在 162 附近强势。日本对全球芯片资本开支周期的高度敞口，使其成为韩国抛售情绪的自然承接者；同时，潜在提前选举带来的国内政治不确定性也增添事件风险。出口商跑输大盘，日元坚挺侵蚀了汇兑收益预期。

香港 #

The Hang Seng Index bucked the regional trend, rising 0.60% to 24,175.12, supported by strong southbound inflows through the Stock Connect programs. Defensive and yield-oriented names outperformed as mainland investors used the weakness in Hong Kong-listed tech and property names to accumulate. The positive close, however, came on data dated July 10; today’s session will test whether southbound conviction can withstand the broader North Asia sell-off.

恒生指数逆势上涨 0.60% 至 24,175.12 点，港股通南向资金持续流入提供支撑。防御性与高股息板块跑赢，内地投资者利用港股科技与地产板块低迷逢低布局。不过该收盘数据截至 7 月 10 日，今日开盘将检验南向资金信心能否抵御更广泛的北亚卖压。

中国 #

Mainland China markets softened, with the CSI 300 down 1.96% to 4,780.79 and the Shanghai Composite off 1.00% to 3,996.16. The Shenzhen Component led the decline, falling 2.29%, as growth and small-cap names faced renewed profit-taking. Liquidity conditions remained subdued, and northbound net buying was effectively flat, suggesting foreign investors stayed on the sidelines amid geopolitical and tariff uncertainty. Policy expectations around potential support for the property sector and consumption provided a floor, but not enough to turn sentiment.

A 股走弱，沪深 300 下跌 1.96% 至 4,780.79 点，上证综指跌 1.00% 至 3,996.16 点。深证成指跌幅居前，下挫 2.29%，成长与中小盘遭遇获利回吐。流动性依然偏紧，北向资金净买入几乎为零，显示外资在地缘与关税不确定性下选择观望。地产与消费刺激政策预期构成一定支撑，但尚未扭转情绪。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

7 月 13 日北向资金通过沪股通、深股通净买入均为 0，外资整体按兵不动。沪股通上涨家数 396、下跌 1,215；深股通上涨 284、下跌 1,567，市场宽度疲弱，显示外资对 A 股短期方向仍存疑虑。

南向资金 #

南向资金合计净买入约 79.38 亿元人民币，其中港股通（沪）净买入 66.01 亿元，港股通（深）净买入 13.37 亿元。内地资金继续以港股为避风港，高股息与科技龙头为吸纳重点。

汇率与宏观 #

美债收益率升至 4.57% 对高估值成长股构成持续压力；WTI 原油小幅反弹 1.14%，仍受霍尔木兹海峡局势支撑；黄金高位震荡，避险情绪并未完全消退。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势

Tensions over the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant geopolitical variable. The White House is preparing for a potential multi-week exchange of fire with Iran after the IRGC resumed attacks on commercial shipping in early July. While a 60-day ceasefire framework was agreed in June, hardliners in Tehran appear frustrated by the lack of tangible sanctions relief, prompting renewed strikes. Tanker traffic has partially recovered along the Omani coastal route, but full normalization of Hormuz transit is not expected until early 2027.

霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势仍是主导性地缘变量。在伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队 7 月初恢复对商船袭击后，白宫正为可能与伊朗持续数周的交火做准备。尽管 6 月已达成 60 天停火框架，但伊朗强硬派对实际制裁松绑有限感到不满，重启袭击。油轮沿阿曼海岸航线部分恢复，但海峡通航完全正常化预计要到 2027 年初。

受影响板块分析

关键时间节点

• 7 月中旬：美国与伊朗是否进入新一轮直接军事对峙
• 8 月初：OPEC+ 增产 18.8 万桶/日计划能否按期执行
• 2027 年初：海峡全面通航与产能修复的预期时点

2. 俄乌战争 #

最新态势

The EU is expected to approve additional sanctions against Russia on July 13, targeting entities involved in the production of Shahed and Geran drone components. The bloc is also working to freeze the Russian oil price-cap formula ahead of the July 15 adjustment, aiming to prevent Moscow from benefiting from elevated global oil prices tied to the Hormuz crisis. Japan reaffirmed its support for Ukraine and sanctions coordination on July 1.

欧盟预计于 7 月 13 日通过对俄新制裁，针对参与生产 Shahed 与 Geran 无人机组件的实体。欧盟还计划在 7 月 15 日价格上限调整前冻结俄油定价公式，防止莫斯科从霍尔木兹危机推高的全球油价中获利。日本于 7 月 1 日重申对乌克兰支持及制裁协调立场。

受影响板块分析

关键时间节点

• 7 月 13 日：欧盟外长会审议第 21 轮制裁
• 7 月 15 日：俄油价格上限公式调整日
• 7 月 31 日：欧盟对俄经济制裁续期审查

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

最新态势

U.S.-China trade policy has shifted from broad tariff escalation to a narrower “managed trade” framework following the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling that constrained the president’s IEEPA tariff authority. Section 301 investigations launched in March are due to conclude around July 2026, keeping tariff volatility elevated. China retains leverage through rare-earth export controls, which remain the most credible retaliation tool.

在美国最高法院 2026 年 2 月裁定限制总统依据 IEEPA 加征关税的权力后，美中贸易政策已从全面关税升级转向更狭窄的「管理式贸易」框架。3 月启动的 301 调查预计于 7 月左右得出结论，关税波动风险仍高。中国凭借稀土出口管制保持报复筹码。

受影响板块分析

关键时间节点

• 7 月 2026：美国 301 调查结果公布窗口
• 11 月 10, 2026：美中互惠关税暂停期到期
• 2027 年 6 月：美国对华半导体关税原定生效日

专家研判 #

相对受益方向

• 油气上游：油价风险溢价与供应受限双重支撑
• 油轮/航运：绕行与保费上涨推升运价
• 军工/国防：地缘紧张驱动全球军费扩张
• 稀土/关键矿产：贸易冲突中的战略筹码价值凸显
• 黄金/贵金属：避险与去美元化需求持续

需要回避方向

• 高杠杆半导体代工/存储：韩国市场已展示强制平仓风险
• 航空/海运消费：燃油成本上行与需求放缓双重挤压
• 出口导向型轻工制造：关税与订单转移不确定性高
• 高估值成长股：美债收益率上行压制远期现金流折现

情景分析

关键主题 #

• 韩国杠杆清算：KOSPI 单日暴跌 14%，创纪录融资盘与外资流出形成负反馈，三星与 SK 海力士占据主导。
• AI 芯片叙事承压：全球对 AI 存储需求斜率的重估，使半导体板块从领涨转向高波动。
• 地缘冲突反复：霍尔木兹海峡军事对峙与俄乌新制裁共同支撑油价风险溢价。
• 南向资金撑港：港股逆势收红，内地资金通过互联互通持续流入高股息与科技龙头。
• 美债收益率上行：10 年期美债收益率升至 4.57%，成长股估值承压，资金向短久期与防御板块迁移。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。