亚洲午盘 — 2026-07-10

市场概览 #

亚洲市场今日（7 月 10 日）呈现极端分化：韩国 KOSPI 在半导体权重股溃泻与杠杆产品负反馈推动下重挫近 5%，台湾加权受台积电等 AI 供应链拖累下跌逾 2.5%；反观 A 股昨日午后完成强劲反弹，沪深 300 与深证成指分别收涨 2.54% 与 3.07%。中东方面，美伊停火协议在相互指责与新一轮打击中濒临破裂，WTI 原油应声大涨 5.76%，成为午后资金重新评估风险溢价的焦点。日本日经 225 随区域科技板块走弱但跌幅可控，恒生指数则在中国科技股反弹与地缘避险情绪之间维持窄幅整理。

注：下列指数中，KOSPI、日经 225 为 7 月 10 日最新；台湾加权、恒生指数、沪深 300、上证综指、深证成指为 7 月 9 日收盘数据。

指数表现 #

台湾 #

The TAIEX dropped 2.58% to 45,354.61, extending the regional de-risking in AI hardware names. TSMC’s outsized weighting in the benchmark—estimated at roughly 42-45% of index market cap—means that any reassessment of AI capex sustainability translates directly into index-level volatility. Foreign investors continued to trim exposure to the AI supply chain, while local buying provided only partial offset. The move came alongside a broader unwind of levered long positions in single-name tech ETFs across North Asia.

台湾加权指数下跌 2.58% 至 45,354.61 点，延续亚洲 AI 硬件板块的减仓潮。台积电在指数中市值占比高达 42%-45%，一旦市场对 AI 资本开支可持续性产生疑虑，便会直接放大指数波动。外资持续减持 AI 供应链仓位，本地买盘仅提供部分缓冲。此次下跌亦伴随着北亚地区单只股票杠杆 ETF 多头头寸的系统性平仓。

Technically, the index has now retraced sharply from the June highs and is testing the area where retail margin exposure first expanded aggressively in the second quarter. A sustained break below 45,000 would likely trigger further CTA de-grossing and raise the probability of a deeper consolidation toward the 43,000-44,000 zone.

技术面上，指数已从 6 月高点显著回落，正考验二季度散户融资仓位快速扩张的关键区域。若 45,000 点失守，可能触发更多 CTA（商品交易顾问策略）减仓，并加大指数向 43,000-44,000 区间更大幅度整理的概率。

韩国 #

KOSPI crashed 4.94% to 7,688.62, its worst single-day drop in months and the clearest expression yet of the AI-driven unwind. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix—the two companies that together account for roughly 40% of the index—led the decline, with foreign investors accelerating liquidation even after Samsung reported record quarterly operating profit. The market is no longer trading fundamentals; it is repricing the terminal demand assumptions embedded in memory and HBM valuations.

韩国综合指数暴跌 4.94% 至 7,688.62 点，创数月来最大单日跌幅，也是 AI 交易逆转的最直接体现。三星电子与 SK 海力士合计占指数约 40%，两者领跌市场；即便三星公布创纪录的季度营业利润，外资仍加速抛售。市场当下已不再交易基本面，而是在对存储芯片与 HBM（高带宽存储）估值中隐含的需求假设进行重估。

The official response underscores how serious the situation has become. South Korea’s finance minister convened an emergency meeting with the central bank and financial regulators on July 9, explicitly warning that rising concentration in semiconductors is amplifying market volatility. Regulators are also scrutinizing single-stock leveraged ETFs, which the Bank of Korea warned can magnify one-way positioning and exacerbate price swings. This year’s six circuit-breaker triggers—half of all KOSPI circuit-breaker events since 2000—illustrate the structural fragility of a retail-heavy, levered market riding two stocks.

官方反应凸显出形势的严峻。韩国财政部长 7 月 9 日紧急召集央行与金融监管机构开会，明确指出半导体板块集中度上升正在放大市场波动。监管同时盯上单只股票杠杆 ETF，韩国央行此前已警告这类产品会放大单边交易并加剧价格波动。今年以来 KOSPI 已六次触发熔断，占 2000 年以来总熔断次数的一半，凸显出散户主导、高杠杆、双股驱动的市场结构何等脆弱。

From a technical and flow perspective, KOSPI has fallen approximately 20% from its late-June record high and is flirting with a technical bear market. The next support cluster sits near 7,500, but if foreign selling persists and leveraged retail positions hit stop-outs, forced liquidation could drive a non-linear move lower. The crucial near-term catalyst is whether the market can stabilise around the psychological 7,500 level before the weekend.

从技术与资金流角度看，KOSPI 已从 6 月末历史高点下跌约 20%，逼近技术性熊市门槛。下方支撑密集区在 7,500 点附近，但若外资持续流出且散户杠杆仓位触及止损，可能引发非线性抛售。关键短线催化剂在于市场能否在周末前于 7,500 点心理关口企稳。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 fell 1.09% to 68,975.40, a relatively contained decline given the volatility in Seoul and Taipei. Tokyo Electron and other semiconductor equipment names tracked the regional chip selloff, but the index was partly cushioned by yen stability and a more balanced sector composition than Korea or Taiwan. The yen traded near 161.64 per dollar, with modest yen strength reducing the urgency of repatriation-driven selling by foreign investors.

日经 225 下跌 1.09% 至 68,975.40 点，在首尔与台北剧烈波动背景下表现相对克制。东京电子等半导体设备股跟随区域芯片板块下挫，但日元持稳以及较韩国、台湾更为均衡的板块构成部分缓冲了跌幅。日元报 161.64 兑 1 美元，日元小幅走强降低了外资因汇兑而被迫减仓的压力。

Market breadth was weaker than the headline suggests, with declining issues outpacing advancers. Investors are treating Japan as a relative safe harbour within the AI supply chain, but the correlation with Korean semiconductors means further KOSPI weakness would likely drag the Nikkei through key support near 68,000.

市场广度弱于 headline 所示，下跌个股多于上涨个股。投资者将日本视为 AI 供应链中的相对避风港，但日韩半导体板块高度相关，若 KOSPI 进一步走弱，日经可能被迫考验 68,000 点附近支撑。

香港 #

The Hang Seng Index eased 0.70% to 24,030.18, caught between the rebound in mainland tech and renewed risk-off flows tied to the Middle East. Hong Kong-listed internet giants were mixed: Alibaba held gains while Meituan and Baidu drifted lower. Property and financials remained soft, reflecting persistent concerns over credit demand and developer balance sheets.

恒生指数下跌 0.70% 至 24,030.18 点，夹在中国大陆科技股反弹与中东风险情绪之间。港股互联网巨头分化：阿里巴巴维持涨势，美团、百度则走低。地产与金融板块持续偏弱，反映市场对信贷需求及开发商资产负债表的担忧仍在。

Southbound inflow remained modest, with the combined Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect channels registering a net buy of roughly RMB 2.18 billion. The inflow was insufficient to offset offshore selling, suggesting that global allocators are still reducing emerging-market beta rather than adding exposure aggressively.

南向资金流入温和，沪港通与深港通合计净买入约 21.8 亿元人民币，不足以抵消离岸抛压，说明全球配置者仍在降低新兴市场贝塔，而非积极加仓。

中国 #

mainland equities staged a sharp rebound on July 9, with the CSI 300 rising 2.54%, the Shanghai Composite up 1.65%, and the Shenzhen Component surging 3.07%. Semiconductors led the charge after a prolonged consolidation, with the STAR 50 Index reportedly closing up 8.41%. The rally appeared to be driven by expectations of policy support ahead of key meetings, as well as a rotation out of overcrowded AI hardware trades elsewhere in Asia into domestically oriented tech names.

A 股市场 7 月 9 日强势反弹，沪深 300 涨 2.54%，上证综指涨 1.65%，深证成指大涨 3.07%。半导体板块在长期整理后领涨，科创 50 指数 reportedly 收涨 8.41%。反弹动力来自重要会议前的政策宽松预期，以及资金从亚洲其他市场拥挤的 AI 硬件交易轮动至以内需为主的本土科技股。

Trading turnover exceeded RMB 2.9 trillion, indicating genuine participation rather than a thin short-covering bounce. However, the sustainability of the move depends on whether policymakers deliver concrete measures on consumption stimulus and property stabilisation. Without follow-through, the rally risks becoming another range-bound rally within a broader consolidation.

成交额突破 2.9 万亿元人民币，显示有真实资金参与，而非单纯的空头回补。但反弹的可持续性取决于政策层面能否在消费刺激与房地产稳定方面出台具体措施；若缺乏后续跟进，本轮上涨可能只是震荡区间内的又一次脉冲。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

7 月 10 日沪深股通净流入数据显示为 0，明显属于数据源尚未更新或接口返回异常，建议以交易所晚间正式披露为准。近期北向资金成交活跃，7 月 9 日合计成交约 4,008 亿元，占两市成交额的 13.75%，成交前列多为兆易创新(603986.SH)、寒武纪(688256.SH)、中微公司(688012.SH)等半导体标的，显示外资对硬科技的博弈仍在持续。

南向资金 #

港股通（沪）净买入约 0.52 亿元，港股通（深）净买入约 21.31 亿元，合计约 21.83 亿元人民币。南向资金维持小幅流入，但力度不足以扭转港股颓势，说明内地资金对港股仍处于“逢低小幅配置”而非“大举抄底”状态。

汇率与宏观 #

值得注意的现象是，尽管 KOSPI 暴跌，韩元兑美元反而升值 1.40%，呈现“股市崩、货币稳”的罕见组合。这显示外资抛售韩国股票后并未同步大规模撤离韩元，部分资金可能已预先对冲外汇敞口，或股市下跌更多由本土杠杆仓位触发而非跨境资本外逃。WTI 原油大涨 5.76% 则直接反映中东停火协议濒临破裂带来的供应风险重估。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势（英文）: The fragile US-Iran ceasefire appeared to collapse on July 10. Iranian state media reported fresh overnight US strikes near Asaluyeh on the Arabian Gulf, close to the South Pars gas field—one of the world’s largest energy reservoirs. Photographs showed damage near Bonod fishing harbour. Jordan’s military intercepted several missiles and drones that entered its airspace, marking another spillover beyond the Gulf. Iran also accused the US of supporting attacks on commercial shipping and coalition naval forces around the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption passes. Diplomatic mediators are scrambling to restore the truce, but uncertainty is high.

最新态势（中文）: 7 月 10 日，美伊脆弱停火协议濒临破裂。伊朗官方媒体报道，美军夜间对伊朗南部阿萨鲁耶（靠近全球最大天然气田之一南帕斯气田）附近实施新一轮打击，照片显示博诺德渔港附近受损。约旦军方拦截多枚进入其领空的导弹与无人机，冲突再次外溢至海湾以外。伊朗还指责美方支持针对霍尔木兹海峡商业航运与联军海军的袭击。外交官正紧急斡旋以恢复停火，但不确定性极高。

关键时间节点:

• 7 月 17-18 日：美伊下一轮间接谈判窗口，若失败可能触发对伊朗能源基础设施更广泛打击。
• 7 月 24 日：美国《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条 10% 全球关税授权到期，与地缘情绪叠加。

2. 俄乌战争 #

最新态势（英文）: The EU renewed its economic sanctions against Russia through July 31, 2026, and adopted a 20th sanctions package in April targeting the shadow fleet, Chinese suppliers to Russia’s defence sector, and foreign information manipulation networks. SIPRI data show global military spending reached $2.887 trillion in 2025, with European NATO members driving the largest increase since the Cold War. Germany’s defence spending rose 24% to $114 billion, crossing 2% of GDP for the first time since 1990.

最新态势（中文）: 欧盟已将针对俄罗斯的经济制裁延长至 2026 年 7 月 31 日，并于 4 月通过第 20 轮制裁方案，重点打击俄罗斯“影子船队”、向俄国防工业供货的中国实体以及境外信息操纵网络。斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所数据显示，2025 年全球军费支出达 2.887 万亿美元，欧洲北约成员国增幅创冷战以来最大；德国军费增长 24% 至 1,140 亿美元，自 1990 年以来首次突破 GDP 的 2%。

关键时间节点: 2026 年 7 月 31 日欧盟对俄制裁下一次复审，届时若冲突升级可能推出第 21 轮制裁。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

最新态势（英文）: After the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, the administration imposed a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, set to expire on July 24, 2026 unless extended. A Court of International Trade ruling on May 7 found even that 10% levy legally questionable. Trump has signalled intentions to raise the rate to 15%, while the US-China truce remains extended into late 2026 and semiconductor tariffs on China have been delayed to June 2027.

最新态势（中文）: 2026 年 2 月美国最高法院裁定特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）加征的关税违宪后，政府转而依据《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条实施 10% 全球关税，该授权将于 7 月 24 日到期。5 月 7 日国际贸易法院裁定该 10% 关税法律依据存疑。特朗普已暗示拟将税率提高至 15%，而中美关税休战期延续至 2026 年末，对华半导体关税则推迟至 2027 年 6 月。

关键时间节点: 2026 年 7 月 24 日美国第 122 条全球关税授权到期，国会是否续期将决定下半年贸易政策基调。

专家研判 #

相对受益方向

1. 油气上游与油服：油价突破与供应风险重估直接利好现金流改善，代表标的埃克森美孚(XOM)、中海油(0883.HK)、斯伦贝谢(SLB)。
2. 欧洲军工：北约军费长期上行的结构性叙事未改，代表标的 Rheinmetall(RHM.DE)、BAE Systems(BA.L)、汉华航空(012450.KS)。
3. 中国半导体设备 / 国产替代：在地缘风险与政策支持下，本土设备与材料替代逻辑强化，代表标的中微公司(688012.SH)、北方华创(002371.SZ)。
4. 黄金 / 贵金属：地缘避险与美元信用担忧提供中长期支撑，代表标的山东黄金(600547.SH)、巴里克黄金(GOLD)。
5. 航运 / 油轮：运距拉长与保险溢价抬升运费中枢，代表标的 Frontline(FRO)、中远海能(600026.SS)。

需要回避方向

1. 高能耗半导体组装与存储：韩国芯片企业面临能源断供与 AI 需求预期下修双重压力，代表标的 SK 海力士(000660.KS)、三星电子(005930.KS)。
2. 航空与消费出行：燃油成本上升叠加中东航线避险，盈利预测面临下调，代表标的国泰航空(0293.HK)、达美航空(DAL)。
3. 高度依赖单一出口市场的消费电子组装：若 7 月 24 日关税政策生变，利润率将进一步承压，代表标的部分越南 / 墨西哥组装链供应商。
4. 能源进口密集型化工 / 钢铁：油价与气价上行挤压价差，代表标的巴斯夫(BAS.DE)、浦项制铁(005490.KS)。

情景分析（针对 7 月 17-18 日美伊谈判窗口）

关键主题 #

• KOSPI 技术性熊市边缘: 半导体集中度与杠杆 ETF 形成负反馈，韩国市场正在经历 2026 年最大规模的持仓结构调整。
• A 股半导体政策驱动反弹: 重要会议前政策预期升温，科创 50 单日大涨 8% 以上，显示风险偏好快速修复。
• 霍尔木兹海峡再成焦点: 美伊停火濒临破裂，油价大涨，亚洲能源进口国的权益市场面临重估。
• 韩元逆势走强: 股市崩跌但韩元升值，暗示本轮抛售更多由本土杠杆与半导体仓位驱动，而非全面资本外逃。
• 7 月 24 日关税 deadline 逼近: 美国第 122 条全球关税授权到期，贸易政策不确定性可能再度冲击跨境供应链估值。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。