亚洲午盘 — 2026-07-01

市场概览 #

亚洲市场周三午盘呈现明显分化。台湾加权指数在科技板块带动下上涨1.85%，为区域主要市场中表现最强；日本日经225则从近期高点大幅回撤2.66%，触发技术性抛售；韩国综合指数受出口与汇率压力影响下跌1.07%。香港市场因特区成立纪念日休市，恒生指数数据为6月30日收盘；A股主要指数数据同样为前一交易日收盘，但7月1日早盘券商、半导体、氟化工等板块延续强势。宏观层面，黄金下跌2.20%至3,988.80美元，WTI原油小幅上涨0.78%至69.77美元，美元指数基本持平。

指数表现 #

注：恒生指数、沪深300及上证综指数据为2026-06-30收盘数据；香港市场今日休市。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX led Asia-Pacific gains, rising 1.85% to 47,109.62 in the midday session. The rally was concentrated in technology-heavyweights, with the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) closing up 2.67% overnight, suggesting foreign accounts were adding exposure ahead of the July 4 holiday lull. Semiconductor names continued to benefit from the AI capex cycle and from a weaker U.S. dollar, which improved the relative competitiveness of Asian tech exporters. Market breadth was healthy, with the intraday high of 47,264 contrasting with a low of 46,455, indicating dip-buying emerged after an initial probe lower.

台湾加权指数午盘上涨1.85%至47,109.62点，为亚太主要市场中表现最强。涨势集中在科技权重股，隔夜iShares MSCI台湾ETF (EWT)收涨2.67%，显示外资在美国独立日假期前增持台湾科技资产。半导体板块继续受益于AI资本开支周期，同时美元走软也提升了亚洲科技出口商的相对竞争力。盘中最高触及47,264点、最低46,455点，早盘下探后逢低买盘介入，市场广度尚可。

韩国 #

KOSPI slipped 1.07% to 8,380.05, giving back part of Tuesday’s gains as the won weakened to 1,554.88 per dollar (+0.79%). The move tracked a broader de-grossing in Korea’s export complex, with chipmakers and automakers seeing MOC-style selling into the lunch break. The market opened higher but failed to hold the gap, printing a lower intraday high relative to recent sessions. Foreign flow turned cautious as USD/KRW tested the 1,550 psychological level, raising the cost of hedging for offshore holders of Korean equities.

韩国KOSPI下跌1.07%至8,380.05点，回吐周二部分涨幅，韩元兑美元贬至1,554.88（+0.79%）。跌势主要反映韩国出口产业链的仓位压缩，芯片与汽车板块在午盘前遭遇收盘前调仓卖压。指数早盘高开但未能守住缺口，日内高点低于近几个交易日。美元/韩元测试1,550心理关口，抬升海外投资者持有韩股的套保成本，外资流向趋于谨慎。

日本 #

Nikkei 225 tumbled 2.66% to 70,438.91, the worst single-session drop in weeks and a clear momentum reversal from the June all-time high near 73,007. The sell-off was broad-based, with exporters, automakers, and airlines underperforming as the yen held steady around 162.75 per dollar, removing the weak-yen narrative that had fueled the earlier rally. Energy-import-sensitive sectors also faced pressure from still-elevated geopolitical risk premiums, even as spot WTI remained below $70. The breach of 71,000 triggered systematic selling and stop-loss flows; the next technical support sits near the 69,000–70,000 band, which capped selling during the May consolidation.

The magnitude of the decline—nearly 2,000 points—suggests this was more than routine profit-taking. Domestic asset managers appeared to lock in half-year gains ahead of the July–August earnings pre-announcement window, while foreign accounts reduced Japan exposure after the index’s 77% year-over-year run-up. The lack of fresh BOJ guidance and a flat USD/JPY left the market without a counterbalancing catalyst. Unless the yen resumes weakening or earnings revisions surprise to the upside, near-term sentiment remains fragile, with 68,000–69,000 as the critical downside zone to watch.

日经225大跌2.66%至70,438.91点，为近几周来最差单日表现，也是自6月历史高点约73,007点的明确动量反转。跌势覆盖面广，出口商、汽车及航空板块领跌，日元兑美元持稳于162.75附近，削弱了此前推动日股上涨的弱日元叙事。能源进口敏感板块亦受地缘政治风险溢价压制，尽管即期WTI原油仍低于70美元。71,000点失守触发程序化卖盘与止损盘；下一个技术支撑位于5月整理区间上限的69,000–70,000点一带。

此次跌幅接近2,000点，已超出常规获利了结范畴。国内机构似乎在7–8月财报预告窗口前锁定半年收益，而外资在日本指数一年大涨约77%后减持日本敞口。日本央行缺乏新的政策指引，美元/日元走平，市场缺乏反向催化剂。除非日元重新走软或业绩修正超预期，否则短期情绪依然脆弱，68,000–69,000点为关键下行观察区间。

香港 #

Hong Kong’s equity market was closed on Wednesday for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day holiday. The most recent benchmark close came on June 30, when the Hang Seng Index slipped 0.63% to 22,881.02, losing 145.66 points. Trading will resume on July 2. Southbound flow through Stock Connect remained active in the previous session, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen channels combining for net buying of approximately RMB 58.95 billion, suggesting mainland investors used the pre-holiday window to accumulate Hong Kong-listed exposure.

香港股市周三因香港特别行政区成立纪念日休市。最新基准收盘价为6月30日的22,881.02点，下跌145.66点，跌幅0.63%。交易将于7月2日恢复。港股通南向资金在上一交易日保持活跃，沪、深两个渠道合计净买入约589.5亿元人民币，显示内地投资者利用假前窗口增持港股资产。

中国 #

Mainland A-share data in the table reflects the June 30 close: CSI 300 rose 1.07% to 4,979.43, the Shanghai Composite added 0.50% to 4,094.40, and the Shenzhen Component surged 2.48% to 16,205.56. The session was characterized by a rotation out of recent AI-hardware winners and into brokerages, fintech, fluorochemicals, and biomedical names. Semiconductor-related stocks also saw continued interest as a new round of price increases from analog and power-chip makers took effect on July 1. Northbound Stock Connect flow was effectively flat on June 30, while domestic participants drove the intraday rally.

A股表中数据为6月30日收盘：沪深300上涨1.07%至4,979.43点，上证综指涨0.50%至4,094.40点，深证成指大涨2.48%至16,205.56点。当日特征为资金从近期AI硬件领涨股轮动至券商、金融科技、氟化工及医药生物板块。半导体相关个股亦持续受关注，因模拟及功率芯片厂商新一轮涨价自7月1日起生效。6月30日北向资金基本持平，主要由国内资金推动日内反弹。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

6月30日北向资金通过沪股通、深股通净买入均为0.0亿元人民币，显示外资在季度末最后一个交易日选择观望。两市上涨个股数合计2,787只，下跌695只，内资主导了普涨格局。

南向资金 #

6月30日南向资金合计净买入约58.95亿元人民币。其中港股通（沪）净买入55.74亿元，港股通（深）净买入3.21亿元。港股通标的下跌个股444只，上涨151只，资金逢低布局特征明显。

汇率与宏观 #

美元指数微跌0.03%至101.33，黄金回调2.20%至3,988.80美元，显示避险需求有所降温。WTI原油小幅反弹0.78%至69.77美元，但仍处于近期低位区间，反映市场对霍尔木兹海峡局势的外交解决抱有期待。美债10年期收益率报4.42%，较上日升0.36%。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势: Diplomatic channels between Washington and Tehran remain active, with a reported 60-day negotiation window and a draft agreement involving phased sanctions relief and $25 billion in unfrozen Iranian assets. However, the Supreme Leader’s final approval has not been publicly confirmed, and the sequencing dispute—whether the U.S. lifts its naval blockade before or after Iran reopens the Strait—continues to block a binding deal. Tanker traffic remains well below normal, though selective passage has been granted to vessels from China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan.

中文: 华盛顿与德黑兰之间的外交渠道仍保持活跃，据报道存在一个60天谈判窗口，草案涉及分阶段解除制裁及释放约250亿美元被冻结的伊朗资产。但伊朗最高领袖的最终批准尚未公开确认，且双方在海运封锁解除与海峡重新开放的先后顺序上仍存在分歧，阻碍达成具约束力协议。海峡通行量仍远低于正常水平，但伊朗已允许中国、俄罗斯、印度、伊拉克及巴基斯坦等国船只选择性通行。

受影响板块分析:

关键时间节点: 伊朗与美国下一轮技术谈判的具体日期尚未官宣；若协议推进，海峡通行量恢复节奏将成为油价风险溢价 unwind 的核心变量。

2. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

最新态势: President Trump has set a July 4, 2026 deadline for the EU to fully ratify the Turnberry trade framework agreed in July 2025. Under the deal, EU goods face a 15% U.S. tariff instead of the threatened 30%, but Brussels has yet to complete ratification. Trump raised tariffs on EU cars and trucks to 25% on May 1 and warned of a broader upward revision if the deadline passes. Separately, U.S. Section 301 investigations into excess manufacturing capacity cover China, the EU, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and other Asian economies, creating a lingering overhang for export-heavy sectors.

中文: 美国总统特朗普将2026年7月4日设为欧盟完全批准2025年7月特恩贝里贸易框架的最后期限。根据该协议，欧盟商品将面临15%的美国关税而非此前威胁的30%，但布鲁塞尔尚未完成批准程序。特朗普已于5月1日将对欧盟汽车及卡车关税提高至25%，并警告若期限过后仍未批准将全面上调税率。此外，美国针对制造业结构性产能过剩发起的301条款调查涵盖中国、欧盟、日本、韩国、台湾等亚洲经济体，对出口导向型板块形成持续压制。

受影响板块分析:

关键时间节点: 2026-07-04 — 美国要求欧盟批准贸易协议的截止日期；若未达成，欧盟商品面临关税全面上调风险。

3. 俄乌战争 #

最新态势: The conflict remains in a attritional phase with no major territorial shifts in recent sessions. Sanctions on Russian energy and metals continue to constrain global supply, while European defense budgets remain on an upward trajectory. Market sensitivity to incremental news has declined relative to the Iran and trade-war themes, but any escalation involving NATO or disruption to Ukrainian grain corridors would reprice risk assets quickly.

中文: 俄乌冲突仍处于消耗阶段，近期无重大领土变化。对俄罗斯能源及金属的制裁持续制约全球供应，欧洲防务预算保持上行。市场对增量消息的敏感度已低于伊朗与贸易战主题，但若北约卷入升级或乌克兰粮食走廊受阻，风险资产将迅速重新定价。

专家研判 #

相对受益方向:

1. 半导体/AI硬件: 台积电(2330.TW)、英伟达(NVDA)、东京电子(8035.T)。AI资本开支周期与7月1日芯片涨价潮共振，短期业绩可见度高。
2. 券商/金融科技: 华安证券、天风证券、国盛证券（A股）。市场成交额维持高位，业绩预告窗口提振风险偏好。
3. 国防军工: 三菱重工(7011.T)、韩华航空(012450.KS)。地缘不确定性支撑订单与估值。
4. 石油上游: 中国石油(601857)、S-Oil(010950.KS)。霍尔木兹风险若反复，油价风险溢价仍有支撑。
5. 油运/航运: 中远海能(600026)、招商南油(601975)。绕行逻辑与运距拉长尚未完全退潮。

需要回避方向:

1. 航空/燃油敏感消费: 全日空(9202.T)、大韩航空(003490.KS)。油价波动与战争险成本直接冲击利润。
2. 欧洲汽车出口商: 大众、宝马。25%美国汽车关税与7月4日 deadline 构成双边压制。
3. 日本电力/燃气: 东京电力、大阪燃气。日元持稳叠加能源进口成本，利润率受压。
4. 黄金矿业: 短期金价回调2.20%，若地缘风险溢价继续 unwind，贵金属板块将面临获利回吐。

情景分析:

• 基准情景（55%概率）: 7月4日前欧盟与美国达成技术性延期，伊朗谈判维持现状，霍尔木兹海峡缓慢恢复通行。市场延续当前分化格局，日股在68,000–70,000点筑底，台股与A股科技板块相对强势。
• 风险上行情景（25%概率）: 欧盟未能在期限内完成批准，特朗普宣布对欧盟全面加征更高关税；或伊朗谈判破裂导致海峡通行再度紧张。油价反弹至80美元上方，日股测试65,000点，全球风险资产承压。
• 风险下行情景（20%概率）: 伊朗协议落地且欧盟贸易谈判取得突破，地缘与关税双重风险溢价快速 unwind。油价回落至60–65美元区间，日股反弹至72,000点以上，航空与消费板块修复。

关键主题 #

• 日本动量反转: 日经225从6月历史高点回落2.66%，技术性抛售与半年末获利了结交织，短线关注69,000点支撑。
• 台湾科技领跑: TAIEX与EWT同步走强，AI资本开支与弱美元环境共同支撑科技权重。
• A股结构轮动: 券商、半导体、氟化工接棒AI硬件，北向观望而内资主导。
• 霍尔木兹外交窗口: 美伊谈判进入60天周期，协议落地节奏决定油价与能源股方向。
• 7月4日贸易 deadline: 欧盟与美国的贸易协议批准进度是下周全球市场最大单一事件风险。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。