亚洲午盘 — 2026-06-30

市场概览 #

亚洲股市今日延续风险偏好修复，芯片超级周期与中东和谈希望共同推动主要指数走高。韩国KOSPI暴涨4.09%领跑，日本、台湾、香港及中国大陆悉数收涨；日元再创四十年来新低，美元/日元逼近162；原油与黄金同步回落，显示地缘溢价边际降温。

Asian equities extended a risk-on rebound at midday, led by the chip super-cycle and tentative hopes for US-Iran de-escalation. Korea’s KOSPI surged 4.09%, while Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and mainland China all finished higher. The yen hit a four-decade low near JPY 162 per dollar, while crude and gold pulled back as geopolitical risk premium faded marginally.

指数表现 #

注：HSI、沪深300及上证综指数据日期为2026-06-29，其余指数为2026-06-30。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX rose 1.07% to 46,534.86, building on its recent record-breaking run. The market drew support from continued foreign appetite for AI hardware and TSMC’s capacity-expansion narrative, even as the broader tape remained selective. The EWT ETF added 2.90% in US trading, suggesting overseas investors are still willing to chase Taiwan’s semiconductor exposure on dips. Chip foundry names outperformed after brokers lifted their view on TSMC’s pricing power through 2028, while traditional exporters treaded water on the stronger Taiwan dollar.

台湾加权指数上涨1.07%至46,534.86点，延续近期连创历史新高的势头。市场受到外资持续追捧AI硬件及台积电产能扩张叙事的支撑，不过个股表现分化。EWT ETF在美交易上涨2.90%，显示海外投资者仍愿意逢低加仓台湾半导体敞口。经纪商上调台积电2028年前定价能力预期后，晶圆代工类股跑赢，而传统出口商则在台币偏强背景下承压。

韩国 #

South Korea’s KOSPI exploded 4.09% to 8,539.34, the standout performer in the region. The rally was almost entirely a chip-led momentum reversal: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix continued to attract foreign capital after the government unveiled a mega plan for a second semiconductor cluster outside Seoul. While record foreign selling earlier in the week had raised fears of de-grossing, today’s price action suggests dip-buying returned with conviction. The won weakened 0.86% against the dollar, providing a modest tailwind for exporters, though the index’s narrow dependence on two memory giants remains a structural vulnerability.

韩国KOSPI暴涨4.09%至8,539.34点，为区域表现最佳。本轮涨势几乎完全由芯片引领的动能反转驱动：在政府公布在首尔以外建设第二座半导体产业集群的大规模计划后，三星电子与SK海力士继续吸引外资流入。尽管本周早些时候创纪录的外资卖出曾引发降杠杆担忧，但今日走势显示逢低买盘重新回归。韩元兑美元贬值0.86%，为出口商带来温和顺风，但指数对两大存储龙头的过度依赖仍是结构性弱点。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 climbed 1.84% to 70,445.39, rebounding from last week’s volatile swings. A weaker yen, with USD/JPY reaching 162.18, continued to flatter exporters’ earnings translations and fuelled buying in automakers and machinery names. The cash index held near session highs, and the session breadth improved as real-estate and financials joined the rally. With the US 10-year yield sliding to 4.37%, growth stocks also found relief.

日经225上涨1.84%至70,445.39点，从上周的剧烈波动中反弹。日元持续走弱，美元/日元升至162.18，继续利好出口企业盈利换算，并推动汽车与机械类股买盘。现货指数接近日内高位，房地产与金融板块也加入上涨，市场广度有所改善。美国10年期收益率回落至4.37%，成长股亦获得喘息。

香港 #

The Hang Seng Index rose 1.57% to 23,026.68 in its latest available close. The advance tracked the recovery in China tech sentiment, with the Hang Seng Tech Index outperforming on strength in semiconductor and internet platforms. Southbound flows turned positive, with mainland investors net-buying Hong Kong shares via both Shanghai and Shenzhen Connect, a sign that the recent wash-out in Hong Kong beta has started to attract bargain hunters.

恒生指数上涨1.57%至23,026.68点（最新收盘数据日期为2026-06-29）。上涨跟随中国科技股情绪修复，恒生科技指数在半导体与互联网平台板块走强带动下跑赢大盘。南向资金转正，内地投资者通过沪港通与深港通净买入港股，显示近期港股贝塔板块的调整已开始吸引逢低买盘。

中国 #

Mainland markets’ latest close showed the Shanghai Composite up 1.16% to 4,073.90, the CSI 300 up 1.21% to 4,926.92, and the Shenzhen Component edging 0.19% higher to 15,812.87. The STAR 50 surged more than 4.6% to a fresh record, led by semiconductors, advanced packaging and innovative-drug names. Sector rotation was evident: electronics, optical optoelectronics and communication equipment saw the strongest inflows, while pharma/biotech and industrial metals recorded outflows. The PBoC’s first overnight reverse-repo injection of RMB 300 billion helped ease quarter-end liquidity concerns.

中国大陆市场最新收盘显示，上证综指涨1.16%至4,073.90点，沪深300涨1.21%至4,926.92点，深证成指微涨0.19%至15,812.87点。科创50大涨逾4.6%再创历史新高，半导体、先进封装及创新药板块领涨。板块轮动明显：电子、光学光电子与通信设备获资金大幅流入，医药生物与工业金属则出现净流出。央行开展3,000亿元隔夜逆回购操作，缓解了季末流动性担忧。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

午盘快照显示沪股通、深股通净买入均为0，数据可能尚未完整更新。昨日（6月29日）行业层面显示科技板块仍呈集中流入态势。

南向资金 #

港股通合计净流入约58.08亿元人民币：其中沪港通（南向）净流入32.71亿元，深港通（南向）净流入25.37亿元。内地投资者重新净买入港股，集中于科技互联网与半导体相关标的。

汇率与宏观 #

美国10年期国债收益率降至4.37%，日内下跌2.65%，与风险资产反弹形成呼应。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势

Tensions remain high but a fragile de-escalation is in play. On June 28 a US official said both sides agreed to halt attacks and hold talks in Doha on June 30 over the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has denied any direct negotiation plan, saying its experts will only visit Doha to monitor the Islamabad memorandum of understanding. Shipping traffic through Hormuz has nonetheless stayed elevated, with 108 verified transits between June 26 and 28 and the first container ships entering the Persian Gulf since the conflict began.

紧张局势依然高企，但脆弱降温正在上演。6月28日美方称美伊双方已同意停止相互攻击，并计划于6月30日在多哈就霍尔木兹海峡问题举行会谈。德黑兰否认有直接谈判计划，称专家团赴多哈仅为跟进《伊斯兰堡谅解备忘录》。尽管如此，海峡航运流量仍处高位，6月26日至28日核实通行108次，且自冲突爆发以来首批集装箱船驶入波斯湾。

受影响板块分析

关键时间节点

• 6月30日：美伊在卡塔尔多哈举行技术性会谈。
• 7月中旬：《伊斯兰堡谅解备忘录》60天过渡期中期节点。
• 8月初：临时协议到期，最终协议谈判窗口。

俄乌战争 #

最新态势

Sanctions pressure continued in June. The EU adopted a “mini” sanctions package on June 15 and proposed a wider 21st package, while the UK added 70 new designations targeting Russia’s shadow fleet and defence supply chains. The US allowed General License 134C to expire on June 17, tightening oil-transaction windows. These measures keep energy and defence supply chains under stress but have not produced a new market-moving shock.

6月制裁压力持续。欧盟15日通过“迷你”制裁包并酝酿第21轮制裁；英国新增70项针对俄罗斯影子船队与军工供应链的制裁；美国则于6月17日让第134C号通用许可到期，收紧油运交易窗口。这些措施持续对能源与军工供应链施压，但尚未产生新的市场冲击。

受影响板块分析

关键时间节点

• 7月：北约峰会可能讨论军费目标。
• 8月5日：Euroclear与俄罗斯Sberbank诉讼听证。

全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

最新态势

The Trump administration’s tariff architecture remains active. Section 232 copper tariffs took effect on June 8, with a Commerce Department investigation into refined copper due by June 30. Pharmaceuticals face up to 100% duties effective July 31, and a 15% global tariff remains in place after the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA-based levies. US-China effective rates on many goods stay near 30%, keeping supply-chain relocation themes alive.

特朗普政府关税框架仍在运行。6月8日生效的232条款铜关税已落地，商务部针对精炼铜的调查定于6月30日完成；药品最高100%关税将于7月31日生效；IEEPA关税被最高法院推翻后，15%全球关税依然保留。对华许多商品有效税率仍接近30%，供应链转移主题继续发酵。

受影响板块分析

关键时间节点

• 6月30日：美国商务部精炼铜232调查截止。
• 7月31日：药品关税开始生效。

专家研判 #

相对受益方向

• 半导体设备与材料：台积电提价、韩国集群投资、国产替代三重催化；代表：中微公司(688012)、东京电子(8035.T)、应用材料(AMAT)。
• 创新药 / CRO：A股资金轮动至低位医药，中报前估值修复；代表：药明康德(603259)、凯莱英(002821)。
• 油运 / 航运：霍尔木兹风险溢价持续，运价弹性大；代表：中远海能(600026)、长荣(2603.TW)。
• 国防军工：地缘冲突与欧洲军费扩张；代表：中航沈飞(600760)、Rheinmetall(RHM.DE)。
• 高股息公用事业：美债收益率回落提升现金流资产吸引力；代表：长江电力(600900)、香港中华煤气(00003)。

需要回避方向

• 油气上游：若霍尔木兹和谈推进，油价回落将挤压利润；代表：中曼石油(603619)、西方石油(OXY)。
• 高估值PCB / CPO：A股前期热门方向回调，资金向半导体缩圈；代表：中际旭创(300308)、沪电股份(002463)。
• 出口敏感的家电 / 纺织：美国对华有效税率维持高位；代表：美的集团(000333)、申洲国际(02313)。

情景分析（下一个关键节点：6月30日多哈会谈）

• 乐观情景（35%）：双方确认技术性会谈进展，霍尔木兹通航保持顺畅，油价回落至65至68美元，风险资产继续反弹，航运与航空受益。
• 基准情景（45%）：会谈无突破但停火延续，海峡通航维持高位但保费高企，油价在70至75美元区间震荡，市场焦点转向财报季。
• 下行情景（20%）：伊朗否认谈判或袭击再现，海峡通航中断风险上升，油价跳涨向85美元，股市回吐涨幅，黄金与军工反弹。

关键主题 #

• 芯片超级周期：韩国大规模芯片集群计划与台积电提价预期共振，半导体板块继续领涨亚洲。
• 科创50创新高：A股资金从高位PCB/CPO向半导体、创新药缩圈，业绩验证窗口临近。
• 日元四十年新低：USD/JPY升至162.18，出口商盈利获支撑但进口成本上升。
• 霍尔木兹脆弱平衡：美伊多哈会谈在即，航运流量维持高位但政治表态反复。
• 季末流动性改善：中国央行隔夜逆回购与美债收益率回落共同缓解资金面压力。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。