亚洲午盘 — 2026-06-29

市场概览 #

周一亚洲早盘呈现极端分化。中国内地与香港市场走势背离：A股延续上周五急跌，创业板午盘跌超4%，全市场超4,600只个股下跌；港股则高开反弹，HK50期货/CFD一度升至23,148点，收复上周五失地。日韩市场承压，KOSPI早盘低开约5.4%，日经225上周五已收跌4.15%，半导体与AI硬件链条成为主要抛压来源。周末美伊互袭令霍尔木兹停火协议岌岌可危，布伦特原油亚洲早盘涨近2%，美油涨超1%，地缘溢价重新计入风险资产。

注：本地行情数据源因 yfinance/akshare 熔断与限流，TAIEX/KOSPI/Nikkei 225 本地收盘价缺失，表中采用 ETF 代理、期货/CFD 或上周五收盘数据；HSI/沪深300/上证综指为 2026-06-26 收盘数据。

指数表现 #

* KOSPI 为周一早盘相对上周五收盘的估算跌幅。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s benchmark TAIEX was not updated in the local data feed due to source outages, but the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) closed Friday at USD 102.81, down 2.00%, providing a reasonable proxy for offshore sentiment. The tape continues to be dominated by the AI hardware de-grossing narrative: Apple and Microsoft announced storage-related price increases on Thursday due to component shortages, while OpenAI’s rumored IPO delay to 2027 crushed SoftBank and dragged Asian tech supply-chain names lower. Taiwan’s memory and advanced-packaging plays are caught at the intersection of these two shocks — investors are questioning whether AI-driven memory demand can pass through higher costs without destroying end-demand. Breadth is likely weak, with TSMC (2330.TW) and MediaTek (2454.TW) facing program-selling pressure into the European close.

台湾加权指数本地数据因源端中断未更新，但离岸代理指标 EWT 上周五收跌 2.00%，反映外资对台湾科技供应链的避险情绪。当前主导交易的主线是 AI 硬件持仓压缩：苹果与微软因存储短缺同日宣布涨价，叠加 OpenAI 据传将 IPO 推迟至 2027 年，软银上周五暴跌 13%，拖累亚洲科技供应链。台湾记忆体与先进封装个股正处于双重冲击的交汇点：市场开始质疑 AI 驱动的存储需求能否完全转嫁成本而不抑制终端消费。台积电(2330.TW)、联发科(2454.TW)等权重股面临程序化卖压，短线广度偏弱。

韩国 #

South Korea’s KOSPI opened Monday at 8,334.28, roughly 5.4% below Friday’s close of 8,813.18, as the AI memory super-cycle trade unraveled further. The EWY South Korea ETF fell 3.77% on Friday, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics leading the decline. The trigger was a reassessment of the memory-price rally: Apple’s price hike is being read not as a demand signal but as evidence that component inflation is now squeezing consumer electronics margins. Foreigners have been the marginal buyers of the KOSPI rally, so any de-grossing by global long/short funds will be magnified in Seoul. The Financial Supervisory Service has also tightened scrutiny on leveraged single-stock ETFs, adding a local regulatory overhang. Near-term support is psychological around 8,200; a close below that level would confirm a momentum reversal.

韩国综合指数周一早盘开于 8,334.28，较上周五收盘 8,813.18 下跌约 5.4%，AI 存储超级周期交易进一步瓦解。EWY 韩国 ETF 上周五收跌 3.77%，SK 海力士与三星电子领跌。触发因素是市场对存储涨价的重新定价：苹果涨价被解读为零部件通胀正在挤压消费电子利润，而非需求强劲。本轮 KOSPI 上涨的外资是边际买家，因此全球多空基金去杠杆会放大首尔跌幅。韩国金融监督院近期加强对个股杠杆 ETF 的监管，也形成本地政策压力。短线心理支撑位在 8,200 点附近；若收盘跌破，将确认动量反转。

日本 #

Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed Friday at 69,360.88, down 4.15% (-3,005.46 points), its worst single-session drop in months. The selloff was broad, with exporters and semiconductor-related names underperforming as yen volatility and global tech weakness fed through. June Tokyo core CPI rose to 1.6% YoY, the first uptick in eight months, while the core-core measure excluding fresh food and energy climbed to 1.9%. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda reiterated the hawkish stance, and a dissenting board member called for rate hikes every few months. The July 31 policy meeting is now the key event risk: roughly 90% of economists expect another hike this year, and today’s inflation data reinforces that path. A stronger yen on the back of BOJ tightening would further pressure Toyota (7203.T), Sony (6758.T) and other exporters.

日经225上周五收于 69,360.88 点，暴跌 4.15%（-3,005.46 点），创数月来最差单日表现。跌势具有广度，出口商与半导体相关个股跑输，日元波动与全球科技疲软形成共振。东京 6 月核心 CPI 同比升至 1.6%，为八个月来首次回升；剔除生鲜食品和能源的核心指标升至 1.9%。日本央行行长植田和男重申加息立场，鹰派委员呼吁每隔数月加息一次。7 月 31 日政策会议成为关键事件风险：约九成经济学家预计年内再度加息，今日通胀数据进一步巩固这一预期。若加息预期推升日元，丰田(7203.T)、索尼(6758.T)等出口商将面临更大压力。

香港 #

Hong Kong is bucking the regional trend, with the HK50 futures/CFD proxy rising 2.10% to 23,148 in early Monday trading, recovering from Friday’s HSI close of 22,671.86 (-1.76%). The bounce appears driven by a combination of short covering in beaten-down property and tech names, and a modest revival in risk appetite after oil prices stabilized from their pre-conflict lows. The Hang Seng Tech Index is likely outperforming, with internet and EV battery names catching a bid. Southbound flows will be watched closely: last week’s pattern showed selective profit-taking by mainland investors. If northbound buying into H-shares returns, the rebound can extend toward 23,500; failure to hold 22,800 would suggest the bounce is merely a dead cat.

香港成为区域内少数反弹的市场。HK50 期货/CFD 代理指标周一早盘上涨 2.10% 至 23,148 点，从上周五恒生指数收盘 22,671.86 点（-1.76%）反弹。反弹动力来自三方面：超跌的地产与科技股空头回补、油价从战前低位企稳带来的风险偏好小幅修复，以及港股通潜在回流。恒生科技指数预计跑赢大盘，互联网与电动车电池板块获得买盘。南向资金流向需密切观察：上周格局显示内地投资者对港股持仓有选择性地获利了结。若北水重新买入 H 股，反弹可望延伸至 23,500 点；若失守 22,800 点，则暗示反弹仅是技术性修复。

中国 #

Mainland markets took the heaviest hit on Friday: the CSI 300 fell 3.03% to 4,868.22, the Shanghai Composite dropped 2.26% to 4,027.26, and the Shenzhen Component slumped 3.44% to 15,782.22. Monday’s Asia session reports indicate the ChiNext Index was down more than 4% at midday, with over 4,600 stocks declining. The selling is concentrated in computing hardware — CPO, AI servers, and storage supply-chain names — as the Apple/Microsoft price-hike narrative forces a rethink of AI hardware margins. The only bright spot is the glass-substrate advanced-packaging theme, which rose against the tide. Policy-wise, there is no new monetary or fiscal impulse visible, so the market is trading purely on sentiment and sector rotation. A sustained close below 4,000 on the Shanghai Composite would re-open the debate about state-rescue bids.

A股上周五跌幅居前：沪深300 收跌 3.03% 至 4,868.22 点，上证综指跌 2.26% 至 4,027.26 点，深证成指跌 3.44% 至 15,782.22 点。周一亚洲时段报道称创业板午盘跌超 4%，全市场超 4,600 只个股下跌。抛压集中在算力硬件——CPO、AI 服务器、存储供应链——苹果与微软涨价叙事迫使市场重新评估 AI 硬件利润率。唯一逆势走强的是玻璃基板先进封装主题。政策层面未见新的货币或财政刺激，市场完全由情绪与板块轮动驱动。若上证综指持续收于 4,000 点下方，市场将重新讨论国家队托底的可能性。

资金流向 #

北向资金 (数据缺失) #

本地数据源中沪深股通资金流向因行情源熔断未能获取。上周五 A 股急跌通常伴随北向净流出，但具体金额需待交易所盘后披露。

南向资金 (数据缺失) #

港股通资金流向同样未在本地 feed 中返回。从盘面观察，港股高开反弹暗示南向可能恢复净买入，但需午后数据确认。

汇率与宏观 #

注：FX 与大宗商品数据因 yfinance/yfproxy 熔断全部缺失。根据新闻，亚洲早盘布伦特原油涨近 2%，美油涨超 1%；黄金上周五盘中跌超 1% 后转涨，全周仍跌超 3%。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire remains technically in place but is under severe strain after weekend mutual strikes. U.S. Central Command conducted fresh strikes on Iranian surveillance, communications, air-defense and drone facilities on June 27, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that U.S. bases in the region would experience “hell” in the coming days. The UN-led evacuation of stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz was paused after a vessel was hit. Iran’s parliament is advancing a plan to assert “sovereign jurisdiction” over the strait, and three tankers attempting unauthorized passage were reportedly turned back. Transit volumes have recovered modestly to around 78 crossings on Wednesday, but remain far below the pre-war daily average of 130+.

美伊停火协议名义上仍有效，但周末互袭后已岌岌可危。美国中央司令部 6 月 27 日对伊朗监视、通信、防空及无人机设施实施新一轮打击；伊朗革命卫队警告美军基地将在未来数日体验“地狱”。联合国主导的霍尔木兹海峡滞留船只撤离行动因一艘船只被击中而暂停。伊朗议会正推进对霍尔木兹海峡“主权管辖”计划，3 艘未经授权的油轮被劝返。周三单日通行量回升至约 78 艘，但仍远低于战前日均 130 艘以上。

受影响板块分析

关键时间节点

• 7 月中旬前后：若伊朗陆上储油 capacity 耗尽，被迫减产，可能触发油价新一轮脉冲。
• 7 月 31 日：日本央行利率决议，若加息可能放大亚洲风险资产的波动。

2. 俄乌战争 #

最新态势

No new major battlefield developments were flagged in the June 29 news flow. The conflict remains a background factor for European energy and defense spending, but market attention has shifted toward the Middle East and U.S.-China technology competition.

6 月 29 日新闻流中未出现重大战场进展。俄乌冲突仍是欧洲能源与防务开支的背景变量，但市场注意力已转向中东与美中的科技竞争。

受影响板块分析

关键时间节点

• 北约峰会（7 月）：欧洲防务预算与对乌援助承诺可能更新。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

最新态势

U.S.-China technology competition intensified over the weekend after Coinbase CEO revealed that the exchange set Zhipu’s GLM 5.2 and Moonshot’s Kimi 2.7 as default models, cutting AI spending nearly in half. The development was framed as validation of Chinese open-source models and a challenge to U.S. large-model pricing power. Separately, the EU is reportedly preparing measures to “protect European industry,” with Beijing stating it is watching closely. Tariff rhetoric remains elevated but no new specific duties were announced on June 29.

周末美中科技竞争升温：Coinbase CEO 透露已将智谱 GLM 5.2 与月之暗面 Kimi 2.7 设为默认模型，在 token 用量暴增情况下将 AI 支出削减近半。这一消息被解读为中国开源模型商业价值的验证，并对美国头部大模型定价权构成挑战。另据报道，欧盟正准备“保护欧洲工业”的措施，中方表示密切关注。关税 rhetoric 仍处高位，但 6 月 29 日未宣布新的具体税项。

受影响板块分析

关键时间节点

• G20/多边贸易谈判窗口（Q3）：若美方升级科技关税，相关板块将再次重估。

4. 其他活跃冲突 #

No new conflicts broke out on June 29. The Korean Peninsula and South China Sea remained calm in the news flow.

6 月 29 日未爆发新的地缘冲突。朝鲜半岛与南海在新闻流中保持平静。

专家研判 #

相对受益方向

1. 油气上游：供应中断溢价持续，代表标的包括中石油(0857.HK)、中海油(0883.HK)。
2. 半导体设备：各国本土化产能扩张，代表标的包括东京电子(8035.T)、阿斯麦(ASML)。
3. 军工电子：地区军备竞赛与欧洲军费扩张，代表标的包括雷神(RTX)、BAE Systems。
4. 核能/替代能源：能源安全叙事，代表标的包括Constellation Energy、中国核电。
5. 黄金：避险需求回归，代表标的包括山东黄金(1787.HK)、SPDR Gold Trust(GLD)。

需要回避方向

1. 航空：燃油成本冲击将在二季度集中体现，代表标的包括国泰航空(0293.HK)、中国国航(0753.HK)。
2. 航运/港口：通航中断和保费飙升，代表标的包括中远海控(1919.HK)、马士基。
3. 消费电子/零售：能源成本推高通胀侵蚀购买力，代表标的包括优衣库(9983.T)、百威亚太(1876.HK)。
4. 高杠杆新兴市场资产：美元流动性波动风险，代表标的包括部分印尼/印度美元债。

情景分析

• 情景 A（概率 35%）：停火协议勉强维持，海峡通行量缓慢回升至战前 50%。油价回落至 75–80 美元，风险资产反弹，航空与航运板块修复。
• 情景 B（概率 45%）：低烈度摩擦持续，海峡维持“半关闭”状态。油价在 85–95 美元区间震荡，油气上游与黄金持续受益，航空股承压。
• 情景 C（概率 20%）：冲突升级，伊朗攻击美军基地或封锁海峡。油价突破 100 美元，全球股市急跌，黄金与军工板块大涨，避险资金涌入美债与日元。

关键主题 #

• AI 硬件叙事重估：OpenAI 推迟 IPO、苹果/微软涨价触发市场对 AI 资本支出与变现假设的质疑，半导体链条进入去杠杆阶段。
• 霍尔木兹再升温：周末美伊互袭与伊朗“主权管辖”计划令停火协议脆弱性暴露，油价在亚洲早盘反弹。
• 日本央行鹰派加码：6 月东京核心 CPI 回升，植田和男重申加息，7 月 31 日会议成为亚洲市场关键事件风险。
• A股算力硬件重挫：创业板跌超 4%，算力硬件集体调整，玻璃基板成少数逆势主题。
• 中国开源模型冲击海外定价权：Coinbase 采用智谱/月之暗面模型降低 AI 支出，引发对美国大模型估值的重新审视。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。