亚洲午盘 — 2026-06-26

市场概览 #

亚洲股市周五午盘全线承压，AI半导体叙事遭遇阶段性逆转叠加霍尔木兹海峡局势反复，推动资金快速 de-gross。韩国 KOSPI 暴跌逾 8%，台湾加权与日经 225 分别下挫 5.75% 与 4.16%，科技硬件供应链成为重灾区；A股早盘低开后跌幅扩大，算力硬件产业链（PCB、CPO）领跌，创业板午间跌近 3.7%。值得注意的是，黄金与原油同步大跌，显示当前抛售更偏向杠杆仓位解压与利润回吐，而非典型的避险逻辑。

指数表现 #

注：HSI、沪深300、上证综指为上一交易日收盘数据；当日午盘 A 股显著走弱，上证综指午间报 4,032.30，跌 2.14%，深证成指跌 3.04%，创业板指跌 3.72%。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX collapsed 5.75% to 44,996.62, giving back a substantial portion of the AI-driven rally that had lifted the index to record levels earlier this month. The selling was broad-based across the semiconductor supply chain, with TSMC and upstream AI hardware names bearing the brunt as investors reassessed the durability of hyperscaler capex growth. The session exhibited classic momentum-reversal characteristics: leveraged long positions built up during the June rally were forced to de-gross into thin liquidity, amplifying the downside. EWT, the U.S.-listed Taiwan ETF, had closed the previous session up only 0.18%, suggesting offshore investors had already begun trimming exposure ahead of the local market’s catch-down.

台湾加权指数重挫 5.75% 至 44,996.62 点，回吐本月 AI 行情创新高后的很大一部分涨幅。半导体供应链普遍承压，台积电及上游 AI 硬件相关个股成为抛售核心，投资者重新评估超大规模云厂商资本开支增长的持续性。午后盘面呈现典型的动量反转特征：6 月上涨行情中累积的杠杆多头在流动性稀薄时被迫减仓，放大跌幅。美上市台湾 ETF（EWT）前一交易日仅收涨 0.18%，显示离岸资金已提前削减敞口，等待本地市场补跌。

从技术面看，加权指数已跌破 20 日均线，下一档重要支撑位于 43,800–44,000 区间。AI 服务器、散热、PCB 等高估值族群是主要失血点，资金向高股息与防御性板块靠拢。

韩国 #

South Korea’s KOSPI crashed 8.62% to 8,271.75 in one of the most violent single-day declines in the index’s modern history. The rout was led by Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS), which together account for roughly 40% of benchmark weighting and have been the epicentre of the global AI-memory trade. The immediate catalyst was the ongoing unwind of leveraged single-stock ETFs tracking the two chip giants: since their launch in late May, these products had averaged daily turnover equivalent to 30–38% of underlying cash-market volume, creating a reflexive buy-high/sell-low dynamic that accelerates in both directions. With foreign investors and domestic leveraged funds forced to reduce exposure simultaneously, the KOSPI triggered multiple sidecar curbs.

韩国综合指数暴跌 8.62% 至 8,271.75 点，创下该指数现代历史上最剧烈的单日跌幅之一。抛售由三星电子 (005930.KS) 与 SK 海力士 (000660.KS) 引领，这两家公司合计占指数权重约 40%，是全球 AI 存储交易的核心。直接导火索是追踪这两只芯片巨头的单股杠杆 ETF 持续解压：自 5 月底上市以来，相关产品日均成交额相当于标的现金交易量的 30–38%，形成高位追涨、低位杀跌的反身性机制。在外资与境内杠杆资金同步减仓下，KOSPI 多次触发 Sidecar 程序交易暂停机制。

这次急跌与 6 月初中概股 Broadcom 业绩不及预期后触发的芯片抛售形成呼应，但幅度更大。关键问题在于韩国市场集中度极高：前两大权重股波动被杠杆产品放大后，指数层面出现流动性黑洞。政策层面，韩国金融监督院已表达对杠杆 ETF 的担忧，并推迟原定 6 月 29 日推出的个股周度期权，试图降低系统性风险。短线支撑先看 8,000 点心理关口，若跌破可能触发进一步程序化卖压。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 fell 4.16% to 69,340.55, with technology and exporter-heavy names leading the decline. SoftBank Group (-10.8%), Advantest (-6.2%), Kioxia Holdings (-4.1%), Tokyo Electron (-2.3%) and Taiyo Yuden (-8.3%) were among the biggest casualties, reflecting a combination of AI-hardware derating and renewed yen-strength concerns. Tokyo core inflation accelerated for the first time in eight months, reinforcing market expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue normalising policy. USD/JPY held near 161.60, but the carry-trade unwind risk remains a persistent undercurrent given the estimated $500 billion in outstanding yen-funded positions.

日经 225 指数下跌 4.16% 至 69,340.55 点，科技与出口权重股领跌。软银集团 (-10.8%)、爱德万测试 (-6.2%)、铠侠控股 (-4.1%)、东京电子 (-2.3%)、太阳诱电 (-8.3%) 跌幅居前，反映 AI 硬件估值重估与日元升值担忧交织。东京核心 CPI 八个月来首次加速，强化市场对日本央行继续推进货币政策正常化的预期。美元/日元维持在 161.60 附近，但鉴于市场估计仍有约 5,000 亿美元日元融资套利仓位未平，套利解压风险始终是潜在压力。

本轮日股调整可视为对前期极端拥挤仓位的修正。日经 225 在 6 月初创下 73,007 点的历史新高后，短线已累积大量获利盘。虽然日本企业基本面（短观景气、公司治理改革）仍具支撑，但在全球芯片情绪降温与日元波动率上升的叠加下，外资容易先减配高估值科技股。下方支撑先看 68,000 点，若跌破可能测试 65,000 点区间。

香港 #

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed the previous session at 23,076.91, down 1.43%, but the current session tracked the broader Asian risk-off tone with futures and related ETFs pointing to further weakness. Tech and consumer discretionary sectors remained under pressure, while property names showed tentative relative resilience. Southbound flows were mixed: Shanghai-connect investors bought HK$2.36 billion of Hong Kong equities, while Shenzhen-connect investors sold HK$1.87 billion, leaving a modest net inflow of around HK$500 million. The contrast suggests mainland investors were selectively accumulating beaten-down Hong Kong tech names rather than indiscriminately cutting risk.

恒生指数上一交易日收于 23,076.91 点，下跌 1.43%；当日早盘随亚洲整体风险情绪继续走弱，期指与相关 ETF 显示进一步下行压力。科技与可选消费板块承压，地产板块相对抗跌。南向资金分歧明显：沪股通渠道净买入 23.6 亿港元，深股通渠道净卖出 18.7 亿港元，合计小幅净流入约 5 亿港元。这表明内地投资者并非全面砍仓，而是在择优吸纳部分跌幅较大的香港科技股。

港股的特殊之处在于其同时受到美股中概、A 股情绪与地缘政治三重影响。恒指在 25,000 点关口遇阻后回落，短线若失守 22,500 点，可能触发量化策略的动量卖出。科网股中，美团、阿里巴巴、腾讯等权重股仍是资金流向的观察重点。

中国 #

Mainland China indices in the JSON reflect the prior close, but the Friday morning session was sharply weaker. The Shanghai Composite fell 2.14% to 4,032.30 at midday, the Shenzhen Component dropped 3.04% to 15,846.98, and the ChiNext Index sank 3.72% to 4,209.29. The selloff was concentrated in AI computing hardware: PCB, CPO, and optical-communication names led the decline, while lithium, rare-earth permanent magnets, and fintech-related stocks also underperformed. Only a handful of defensive themes—agriculture, building materials, photolithography, and commercial aerospace—managed to post gains. Northbound net purchases through both Stock Connect channels were reported at zero, likely reflecting data suspension or minimal foreign participation amid the volatile session.

JSON 中的 A 股数据反映上一交易日收盘，但周五早盘明显走弱。上证综指午间跌 2.14% 至 4,032.30 点，深证成指跌 3.04% 至 15,846.98 点，创业板指跌 3.72% 至 4,209.29 点。抛售集中在 AI 算力硬件：PCB、CPO、光通信方向领跌，锂矿、稀土永磁、金融科技同步走弱。仅农业、建筑材料、光刻机、商业航天等少数防御题材逆势上涨。北向资金沪股通、深股通净买入均显示为 0，可能反映数据暂停或外资在剧烈波动中参与度极低。

A 股此轮调整与全球 AI 硬件交易降温形成共振。6 月以来双创指数一度放量创历史新高，但成交量与融资余额的快速放大也意味着筹码松动。当前市场重新转向业绩与估值锚定，短期需关注科技巨头财报指引、北向资金流向以及 7 月重要会议的政策预期。沪指 4,000 点整数关口为关键心理支撑。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

北向资金今日数据异常：沪股通与深股通净买入均显示为 0.0 亿元。结合 A 股早盘剧烈波动，可能为数据延迟披露或外资交易近乎停滞。从 northbound_flow 附带的指数涨跌幅看，上证指数午间跌 2.14%，深证成指跌 3.04%，与新浪财经午间数据一致。若后续恢复披露，需关注外资在科技成长与红利低估值板块之间的切换。

南向资金 #

• 港股通（沪）：净买入 23.59 亿港元
• 港股通（深）：净卖出 18.67 亿港元
• 合计：小幅净流入约 4.93 亿港元

南向资金呈现结构性分化，沪股通投资者逢低吸纳港股，而深股通投资者选择离场。港股通标的下跌家数达 516 家，上涨仅 73 家，显示整体抛压仍大，但南向资金并未恐慌性撤出。

汇率与宏观 #

跨资产信号显示，黄金与原油同步大跌、美元指数小幅反弹、美债收益率回落，这更像是一次杠杆仓位的全面解压（de-grossing），而非传统避险交易。若地缘局势真正恶化，黄金与原油通常会同向上涨；当前走势表明市场对风险溢价的定价正在重新校准。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势（英文）: The U.S.-Iran interim MOU signed on June 17 established a 60-day framework requiring Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire efforts and the reopening of Hormuz without Iranian tolls. On June 20, Iran’s IRGC re-declared the strait closed, citing continued Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, while Iran’s foreign ministry contradicted the military and said shipping was operating normally. Record transit volumes of 16 million barrels were reported on June 21. Technical talks are ongoing in Switzerland, but President Trump has threatened U.S. tolls after the 60-day period if no final deal is reached. The strait remains in a contested “open-but-mined” status.

最新态势（中文）: 6 月 17 日美伊签署的临时谅解备忘录设定 60 天框架，要求推动以黎停火并重新开放霍尔木兹海峡、伊朗不得征收通行费。6 月 20 日，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队以以色列继续空袭黎巴嫩南部为由再次宣布海峡关闭；伊朗外交部随即否认，称航运正常。6 月 21 日单日通航量创纪录达 1,600 万桶。目前美伊技术代表团在瑞士继续谈判，但特朗普威胁若 60 天内未达成最终协议，美国将对海峡通行征收费用。海峡实际处于“外交上开放、军事上布雷”的争议状态。

受影响板块分析：

关键时间节点： 7 月中旬——美伊下一轮技术谈判与 60 天临时协议中期评估。

俄乌战争 #

最新态势（英文）: The conflict remains entrenched, with Ukraine carrying out long-range drone strikes against Russian energy and military infrastructure while Russia continues missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities. On June 15, the EU approved a mini sanctions package targeting 34 individuals and 47 entities, including shadow-fleet operators and drone suppliers. On June 16, the UK announced further sanctions at the G7 summit, designating 27 additional shadow-fleet vessels and entities in China, Thailand and Turkey suspected of supplying military equipment to Russia.

最新态势（中文）: 俄乌冲突陷入僵持，乌克兰继续对俄罗斯能源与军事基础设施实施远程无人机打击，俄罗斯则持续以导弹和无人机袭击乌克兰城市。6 月 15 日欧盟通过“迷你制裁包”，针对 34 名个人和 47 个实体，包括影子船队运营商和无人机供应商。6 月 16 日英国在 G7 峰会上宣布新制裁，指定 27 艘影子船队船只以及涉嫌向俄罗斯供应军事装备的中国、泰国、土耳其实体。

受影响板块分析：

关键时间节点： 欧盟第 21 轮制裁方案审议（预计 7 月）。

全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

最新态势（英文）: The U.S. trade-policy landscape remains fluid. The Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 that IEEPA-based tariffs were unlawful, prompting the administration to rely on Section 122, Section 232 and Section 301 authorities. On March 11, USTR initiated new Section 301 investigations into structural excess capacity across manufacturing sectors covering China, the EU, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, India and others. Section 232 tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals remain a live risk, with semiconductors already facing a 25% tariff on certain re-exported chips and pharmaceuticals facing up to 100% duties on patented products.

最新态势（中文）: 美国贸易政策环境仍不稳定。2026 年 2 月最高法院裁定基于 IEEPA 的关税违法后，美国政府转而依据 1974 年贸易法第 122 条、232 条和 301 条征税。3 月 11 日，美国贸易代表办公室启动新的 301 调查，针对中国、欧盟、韩国、台湾、日本、印度等多个经济体的制造业结构性产能过剩。半导体与药品 232 关税风险仍在，特定再出口芯片已面临 25% 关税，专利药品最高面临 100% 关税。

受影响板块分析：

关键时间节点： 7 月中旬——美国 301 调查初裁结果陆续发布；部分 Section 122 10% 关税 150 天期限临近。

专家研判板块 #

相对受益方向：

1. 国防军工（Rheinmetall、BAE Systems、中国船舶）：地缘冲突常态化下，欧美亚太军费开支上行，订单周期长。
2. 公用事业/电力（NextEra Energy、长江电力、中国核电）：AI 数据中心耗电量激增，电力资产重估；同时作为防御板块在市场波动中提供现金流。
3. 高股息红利（煤炭、银行、电信）：风险偏好下降时，资金向现金流确定性强、估值较低的板块迁移。
4. 油轮/航运（Frontline、Nordic American Tanker）：霍尔木兹通航不确定性支撑运价与吨海里需求。
5. 必需消费/医药（宝洁、强生、恒瑞医药）：经济周期敏感度低，具备防御属性。

需要回避方向：

1. AI 算力硬件 / 半导体：估值偏高、杠杆仓位拥挤、对云厂商资本开支预期极为敏感，短期波动率可能维持高位。
2. 航空运输：若油价因地缘风险反弹，航油成本将快速侵蚀利润；同时全球经济放缓预期压制出行需求。
3. 汽车出口链：美欧日关税仍高，叠加日元/韩元汇率波动，出口利润率承压。
4. 高贝塔小盘股 / 单股杠杆 ETF：在流动性收紧与波动率上升环境中，下行风险被显著放大。

情景分析（下一个关键时间节点：7 月中旬美伊谈判评估）：

关键主题 #

• AI 芯片叙事逆转：从 Broadcom 业绩不及预期到韩国杠杆 ETF 解压，AI 硬件高拥挤交易正在经历剧烈修正。
• 地缘风险重定价：霍尔木兹海峡“外交开放、军事布雷”的模糊状态，使能源与航运板块维持高波动。
• A 股算力链重挫：PCB、CPO、光通信等前期领涨板块领跌，市场从主题炒作回归业绩与估值锚定。
• 杠杆与流动性风险：韩国单股杠杆 ETF、全球 carry trade 与科技股融资盘相互交织，放大短期波动。
• 黄金原油同步下跌：跨资产走势显示当前抛售更偏向仓位解压，而非避险逻辑，需警惕波动率继续上升。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。