亚洲午盘 — 2026-06-25

市场概览 #

亚洲股市周四午盘呈现温和分化格局。日经225在昨日急跌后反弹近1%，领跑主要基准指数；台湾加权在历史新高附近小幅整固；韩国综合指数则延续前日暴跌后的去杠杆余震，收跌逾1%。香港与A股变动有限，恒生指数与沪深300小幅上扬，上证综指几近收平。宏观资产成为今日焦点：WTI原油重挫7.32%至69.34美元，黄金下跌4.17%至4,007.60美元，两者同步大幅回落反映市场对霍尔木兹海峡通航前景的重新定价，同时美元指数升至101.48，给新兴市场资产带来边际压力。

指数表现 #

注：HSI、沪深300、上证综指为 2026-06-24 收盘数据。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX edged down 0.18% to 46,382.23 in a narrow consolidation just below record highs. The index is digesting the sharp run-up of the past month, with chip foundry leaders such as TSMC (2330.TW) seeing modest profit-taking after multiple limit-up sessions. Market breadth was soft, with the Taiwan ETF (EWT) sliding 0.49% in U.S. hours, implying foreign accounts trimmed exposure ahead of quarter-end. Semicap and AI-server names remain the strongest pocket, but non-tech sectors including financials and petrochemicals underperformed, preventing the benchmark from extending its rally.

台湾加权指数周四小幅下跌0.18%至46,382.23点，在历史高位附近窄幅整理。指数正在消化过去一个月快速上涨后的获利盘，台积电(2330.TW)等晶圆代工龙头在连续涨停后遭遇温和获利了结。市场广度偏弱，台湾ETF(EWT)隔夜下跌0.49%，暗示外资在季前小幅减持。半导体设备与AI服务器板块仍是相对强势族群，但金融、石化等非科技板块表现落后，拖累大盘未能延续涨势。

韩国 #

South Korea’s KOSPI fell another 1.30% to 8,945.76, the third consecutive session of elevated volatility after Tuesday’s historic 9.99% crash. The market is working through the unwind of leveraged single-stock ETFs tied to Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS), which together account for more than 40% of the index by weight. Foreign investors returned as dip-buyers in the morning session, but domestic retail and institutional de-grossing—driven by forced selling from 2x leveraged products—continued to cap rebounds. The Korean won strengthened 0.54% against the dollar, adding a modest translation headwind for exporters.

韩国综合指数周四再跌1.30%至8,945.76点，在周二创纪录暴跌9.99%后连续第三个交易日剧烈波动。市场正在消化与三星电子(005930.KS)、SK海力士(000660.KS)挂钩的个股杠杆ETF平仓压力，这两只权重股合计占指数权重逾四成。早盘外资逢低回流，但散户与机构因2倍杠杆产品强制减仓而持续降仓，反弹空间受限。韩元对美元升值0.54%，给出口商带来轻微的汇兑折算压力。

深度分析： The deleveraging event that triggered Tuesday’s circuit breaker is not yet fully digested. Korean financial regulators, who had approved 16 single-stock leveraged ETFs on Samsung and SK Hynix in May, are now signaling tighter stability measures after assets in these products ballooned from $3 billion to $9 billion in under a month. The mechanical nature of these ETFs means each down day forces further selling to rebalance delta, creating a reflexive loop that can override fundamentals. Near-term support is eyed around the psychological 8,800 level, while resistance near 9,200 is likely to attract supply from trapped longs.

深度分析： 触发周二熔断的去杠杆事件尚未完全出清。韩国金融监管机构在5月批准16只追踪三星与SK海力士的个股杠杆ETF上市，这些产品规模在不到一个月内从30亿美元激增至91亿美元，监管方如今表态将推出更严格的稳定措施。由于这些ETF每日需根据跌幅强制卖出以再平衡敞口，形成“越跌越卖”的反身性循环，短期可能压倒基本面。短线心理支撑位看向8,800点，而9,200点附近则可能聚集套牢盘抛压。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 rebounded 0.94% to 71,922.50, recovering part of the prior session’s steep losses. Exporters and financials led the bounce as USD/JPY held firm at 161.72, keeping the yen-competitiveness narrative intact. However, the Japan ETF (EWJ) drifted 0.15% lower in U.S. trading, reflecting some residual caution among foreign investors about regional semiconductor valuations and the potential earnings translation hit if the yen reverses. Bank stocks outperformed following reports that domestic lenders are benefiting from wider loan spreads, while auto and machinery names tracked the yen closely.

日经225周四反弹0.94%至71,922.50点，收复前日急跌的部分失地。出口股与金融股引领反弹，美元/日元维持在161.72，日元弱势叙事支撑出口企业竞争力。不过日本ETF(EWJ)隔夜下跌0.15%，反映外资对区域半导体估值及日元若反转可能带来的盈利折算冲击仍存戒心。银行股在贷款利差扩大预期下跑赢，汽车与机械股则紧跟日元走势。

香港 #

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index inched up 0.33% to 23,412.18 in thin trading, with tech and energy names moving in opposite directions. Chinese internet heavyweights stabilized after the previous day’s selloff, while CNOOC (0883.HK) and other oil names dropped alongside WTI crude. Southbound flows remained mildly positive, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect channels recording a combined net inflow of roughly HKD 1.55 billion. Property developers continued to lag as investors questioned whether recent policy easing would translate into sustained improvement in tier-1 city transaction volumes.

香港恒生指数周四微涨0.33%至23,412.18点，成交额清淡，科技与能源板块走势分化。中国互联网权重股在前日抛售後企稳，而中海油(0883.HK)等油气股随WTI原油同步下跌。港股通南向资金维持小幅净流入，沪股通与深股通合计净流入约15.53亿港元。地产股持续落后，市场质疑近期政策宽松能否转化为一线城市成交量的持续改善。

中国 #

Mainland Chinese equities were mixed but generally firm, with the CSI 300 up 0.48% to 4,943.02 and the Shanghai Composite rising 0.11% to 4,110.81. The Shenzhen Component outperformed, gaining 1.24%, as semiconductor and AI hardware names extended their recent momentum. Energy and oil-service stocks sold off sharply following the plunge in crude prices, while consumer staples and property names remained subdued. Northbound flow data showed zero net purchases for both the Shanghai and Shenzhen channels, likely a data-availability quirk rather than an actual flat session; advances-to-declines ratios were weak, suggesting underlying breadth remains fragile.

A股走势分化但整体偏稳，沪深300上涨0.48%至4,943.02点，上证综指涨0.11%至4,110.81点。深证成指表现更佳，上涨1.24%，半导体与AI硬件个股延续近期动能。能源与油服股随原油价格大跌而遭抛售，消费与地产板块仍显低迷。北向资金数据显示沪股通、深股通净买入均为0，更可能是数据尚未更新而非实际零成交；上涨家数少于下跌家数，显示市场内部广度仍然脆弱。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

沪股通与深股通净买入均录得0.0亿元，数据提供者尚未披露有效买卖金额。从涨跌家数看，沪股通标的463只上涨、1,149只下跌，深股通标的481只上涨、1,368只下跌，早盘抛压明显，外资动向需待收盘后进一步确认。

南向资金 #

港股通（沪）净买入15.58亿元，港股通（深）净卖出0.05亿元，两地通道合计净流入约15.53亿港元。南向资金连续小幅加仓，但规模有限，显示内地投资者对港股仍持选择性布局态度。

汇率与宏观 #

宏观数据说明：黄金、WTI原油为2026-06-25最新报价；美元指数同步走强。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势

Latest developments around the Strait of Hormuz remain contradictory but point toward a partial, fragile reopening. After a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed earlier in June, Iran’s military command announced the strait was closed again on June 20, citing Israeli attacks on Lebanon and U.S. “bad faith.” President Trump responded by threatening tolls if a final deal is not reached within 60 days, while U.S. Central Command said traffic is up, with roughly 55 merchant ships and 17 million barrels of oil transiting on Saturday. Marine insurers and shipowners, however, remain wary of floating mines and forced routing along the Iranian coast, meaning normalized flows could take weeks or months.

霍尔木兹海峡最新局势充满矛盾，但趋向于部分且脆弱的重新开放。美伊在6月初签署谅解备忘录后，伊朗军方于6月20日再次宣布关闭海峡，理由是以色列对黎巴嫩的袭击及美方“缺乏诚意”。特朗普总统回应称，若60天内未达成最终协议将对过境船只收费；美国中央司令部则表示航运量已回升，上周六约有55艘商船、1,700万桶原油通过海峡。但海上保险公司与船东仍对水雷风险及强制沿伊朗海岸航行路线保持警惕，恢复正常通航可能需要数周至数月。

受影响板块分析：

关键时间节点：

• 6月底-7月初：美伊下一轮间接谈判窗口，若破裂可能触发军事升级与油价反弹
• 7月中旬：霍尔木兹“免费通行”60天临时安排到期评估，特朗普是否重启收费威胁
• 7月初：OPEC+部长级会议，沙特闲置产能释放意愿将影响油价中枢
• 7月底：若海峡通航未达市场预期，WTI可能重新测试80美元关口

2. 俄乌战争 #

最新态势

The G7 summit on June 16 produced a fresh sanctions package targeting Russia’s shadow fleet, military-industrial complex, and third-country enablers, including three Chinese companies. On June 15 the EU Council designated 34 individuals and 47 entities, while the UK sanctioned 27 vessels and seized the Russian shadow-fleet tanker Smyrtos on June 14. The U.S. chose not to renew General License 134C, which expired on June 17, tightening the window for Russian oil deliveries. Diplomatic channels remain open—Secretary Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov held calls in May—but no breakthrough is visible on the battlefield.

6月16日G7峰会推出新一轮制裁，目标指向俄罗斯影子船队、军工综合体及包括三家中国企业在内的第三国协助方。欧盟理事会6月15日将34名个人与47个实体列入制裁清单；英国6月14日扣押俄罗斯影子船队油轮Smyrtos，并对27艘船只实施制裁。美国选择不再续签6月17日到期的第134C号通用许可证，进一步收紧俄罗斯石油交付窗口。外交层面，美国国务卿鲁比奥与俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫5月曾通话，但战场未见突破性进展。

受影响板块分析：

关键时间节点：

• 7月：美国众议院审议2027财年国防授权法案(NDAA)，可能纳入更多对俄制裁条款
• 2027年6月23日：欧盟对克里米亚与塞瓦斯托波尔限制措施到期续审
• 不定期：俄罗斯央行针对冻结资产在欧洲法院的诉讼进展

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

最新态势

Trade policy remains a lingering overhang for Asian equities. On June 17 China’s Ministry of Commerce warned the U.S. against further Section 301 tariffs, while USTR Greer signaled that Washington will seek more “durable” tariffs under Section 301. The February 20 Supreme Court decision that struck down IEEPA tariffs removed the broad 10% baseline, but Section 232 tariffs on advanced AI chips remain in place. India secured removal of a secondary 25% tariff on Russian oil-related trade and is negotiating an interim agreement that could lower reciprocal rates to 18%.

贸易政策仍是亚洲股市的悬顶之剑。中国商务部6月17日警告美方不要进一步加征301关税，而美国贸易代表格里尔表示华盛顿将寻求依据301条款实施更“持久”的关税。2月20日最高法院推翻IEEPA关税后，广泛的10%基准关税被取消，但针对先进AI芯片的232条款关税仍然有效。印度则取消了与俄罗斯石油相关的25%二级关税，并正在谈判将互惠税率降至18%的临时协议。

受影响板块分析：

关键时间节点：

• 持续：USTR对华301条款调查及潜在加征清单
• 2026年下半年：美印临时贸易协议可能落地
• 2027年中：美国国会可能通过新的总统关税授权法案

专家研判 #

相对受益方向：

1. 炼化与化工（荣盛石化、恒力石化）：油价快速回落降低原料成本，裂解价差修复
2. 航空（中国国航、国泰航空）：航油成本下降，但需紧盯地缘突发事件
3. 半导体设备（东京电子、韩美半导体）：各国晶圆厂扩产与本土化需求刚性
4. 消费电子/果链（立讯精密、歌尔股份）：印度与东南亚产能对冲关税风险
5. 欧洲军工与防务电子（韩华宇航、中航沈飞）：地区军备竞赛与军费扩张

需要回避方向：

1. 油气上游：WTI跌破70美元后上游盈利预期下修，前期地缘溢价快速回吐
2. 韩国杠杆ETF/半导体权重股：三星、SK海力士相关的2x杠杆产品平仓尚未结束，波动率仍高
3. 黄金矿业：金价单日大跌4%，短期动能偏空
4. 高美元敞口新兴市场资产：美元指数升至一年高位，资金回流美国压力上升

情景分析（霍尔木兹下一个关键节点）：

• 情景A：谈判取得进展，海峡维持部分通航（概率55%） — WTI可能维持在65-72美元区间震荡，航空、炼化、消费板块继续受益，油气股承压。
• 情景B：谈判破裂，伊朗重新封锁或袭船（概率30%） — 油价迅速反弹至80-90美元，黄金重新走强，航运与军工股短线受追捧，航空与消费股回调。
• 情景C：僵局延续，航运公司保持观望（概率15%） — 油价波动收窄，市场焦点转向OPEC+产量决策与美联储政策，风险资产呈区间震荡。

关键主题 #

• 油价重定价：WTI原油大跌7.32%，霍尔木兹通航预期与美元走强共同打压能源商品，市场正在从地缘风险溢价向供需现实切换。
• 韩国去杠杆余震：KOSPI在周二暴跌后延续波动，杠杆ETF的强制再平衡机制仍是短线最大不确定性来源。
• 日元弱势支撑日股：USD/JPY升至161.72，出口商与金融股受惠，但外资对日本半导体估值保持谨慎。
• A股结构分化：科技成长跑赢，能源与地产落后，北向资金数据缺失令外资动向成为下午关注焦点。
• 黄金避险褪色：金价随油价同步大跌，显示市场对中东局势的最坏预期已部分消退，资金转向美元资产。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。