亚洲午盘 — 2026-06-24：芯片去杠杆再袭韩日，台股独立收红

市场概览 #

亚洲市场周三午盘呈现极端分化。韩国KOSPI延续昨日跌势，重挫7.18%，日经225下跌3.13%，A股主要指数昨日收盘亦录得2%-3%跌幅；台湾加权指数在台积电涨价消息支撑下逆势微涨0.09%。市场主线是AI/半导体仓位的快速解构，MSCI发达市场纳入落空、日本央行鹰派会议纪要、以及美元与美债收益率同步走强，共同压制高估值成长股。地缘层面，美伊落实停火备忘录推动油价与黄金回落，但霍尔木兹海峡通航状态仍有争议，风险资产尚未完全释然。

指数表现 #

注：HSI、沪深300、上证综指、深证成指数据日期为2026-06-23收盘。

台湾 #

The TAIEX bucked the regional selloff, edging up 0.09% to 45,918.64 by midday. Local dip-buying cushioned the index after heavy overseas selling in the iShares Taiwan ETF (EWT -5.64% on the previous close). Reports that TSMC will raise advanced-process foundry prices across the board provided a fundamental anchor, reinforcing pricing power in leading-edge nodes. Breadth remained mixed, with semiconductor names outperforming while traditional exporters and financials lagged. Offshore investors are still trimming exposure, but domestic funds appear to be using the pullback to rebalance back into AI supply-chain leaders.

台湾加权指数逆势收红，午盘微涨0.09%至45,918.64点。在连续数日海外台股ETF遭抛售之后，本地逢低买盘为指数提供了缓冲（EWT上一交易日收跌5.64%）。媒体报道台积电将全面上调先进制程代工价格，这为市场提供了基本面锚点，强化了领先节点的定价权。市场广度仍然分化，半导体个股跑赢，而传统出口商和金融股落后。外资仍在减持，但本地基金似乎正利用回调重新平衡AI供应链龙头仓位。

韩国 #

South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 7.18% to 8,227.57, extending yesterday’s 5.69% rout. The selloff is a textbook momentum reversal in a market that had doubled year-to-date on AI memory euphoria. The immediate triggers remain the MSCI Developed Markets exclusion, softer U.S. AI-chip guidance and forced de-grossing by foreign accounts.

The damage spread well beyond semiconductors. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which together account for roughly 40-50% of benchmark weighting, led the decline, while Hyundai Motor and Kia also came under pressure as exporters faced a weaker won and U.S. tariff uncertainty. USD/KRW rose 0.92% to 1,539.42, amplifying imported inflation and capital-outflow risks. The Korea Exchange again activated sell-side sidecar curbs as KOSPI 200 futures dropped sharply, halting program trading for five minutes. With retail margin debt near record highs, the risk of further forced liquidation into the close remains elevated.

韩国KOSPI指数重挫7.18%至8,227.57点，延续昨日5.69%的跌势。这是一轮典型的动量反转，市场在AI存储狂热推动下年内已翻倍，如今遭遇外资强制减仓。直接触发因素仍是MSCI发达市场纳入落空、美国AI芯片指引走弱以及外资账户的去杠杆。

跌势已扩散至半导体之外。三星电子与SK海力士合计占指数权重约40%-50%，领跌大盘；现代汽车与起亚等出口商也因韩元走弱及美国关税不确定性承压。美元/韩元上涨0.92%至1,539.42，推升输入性通胀与资本外流风险。韩国交易所因KOSPI 200期货暴跌再度触发卖方sidecar熔断，暂停程序化交易五分钟。考虑到散户融资余额接近历史高位，收盘前出现进一步强制平仓的风险仍然较高。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 fell 3.13% to 68,826.45, its sharpest one-day drop in weeks. The Bank of Japan’s latest meeting minutes showed board members urging swift rate hikes, and markets are repricing the probability of additional tightening in Q4 after the June lift to 1.00%.

Rate-sensitive sectors, including real estate, utilities and financials, were hit hardest, while exporters initially found support from a weaker yen before being dragged down by the global tech unwind. USD/JPY traded at 161.56, up 0.60%, keeping import-cost and terms-of-trade pressures alive. The 10-year JGB yield remains near multi-decade highs, and any signal from Governor Ueda that the BOJ will accelerate normalization could keep Japanese equities on the back foot through the summer.

日经225指数下跌3.13%至68,826.45点，创下数周来最大单日跌幅。日本央行最新会议纪要显示委员呼吁迅速加息，市场在6月政策利率上调至1.00%后，正在重新定价四季度进一步收紧的概率。

利率敏感板块，包括房地产、公用事业和金融股跌幅居前；出口商原本因日元贬值获得支撑，但随后被全球科技股解构潮拖累。美元/日元报161.56，上涨0.60%，输入成本和贸易条件压力仍然存在。10年期日债收益率仍接近数十年高位，若植田行长释放出加速正常化的信号，日股在夏季可能继续承压。

香港 #

The Hang Seng Index fell 1.82% to 23,336.28 on the prior close, outperforming only the tech-heavy North Asian markets in relative terms. Sector action was highly divergent: HSBC Holdings set a new high, chip names such as SMIC rebounded on memory buyback reports, while Alibaba lost its red-chip status and was dragged lower by its U.S. lawsuit against the Department of Defense.

Southbound flows remained supportive. Combined Shanghai and Shenzhen Connect net buying into Hong Kong reached roughly RMB 33.1 billion, with the Tracker Fund attracting the bulk of inflows. This mainland bid helped the HSI avoid the deeper losses seen in Seoul and Tokyo, though turnover remained thin and conviction fragile ahead of the U.S. tariff review deadlines.

恒生指数前一交易日收跌1.82%至23,336.28点，相对于科技权重较高的北亚市场，跌幅较轻。板块表现高度分化：汇丰控股创下新高，中芯国际等芯片股因存储回购消息反弹；阿里巴巴则失去红筹地位，并因其对美国国防部的诉讼而承压。

南向资金保持支撑。沪港通与深港通合计净买入港股约人民币331亿元，其中盈富基金吸纳了主要流入。内地资金的买盘帮助恒指避免了首尔和东京的更深跌幅，但成交额仍显清淡，在美国关税审查截止日期前市场信心脆弱。

中国 #

Mainland indices dropped, with the CSI 300 down 2.77% to 4,919.39, the Shenzhen Component off 3.17% and the Shanghai Composite 1.37% lower. The broad market was caught in the global AI/semiconductor de-risking, with communications equipment and machinery sectors seeing the largest outflows.

However, domestic thematic pockets held up. Semiconductor packaging, medical services and digital-chip design names saw inflows, supported by the ongoing MWC Shanghai and policy narratives around self-reliance. The PBOC injected a net RMB 242.2 billion via reverse repo and set the daily yuan fixing at 6.8195, 24 basis points weaker. Northbound Stock Connect showed effectively zero net flow, suggesting foreign investors are sidelined rather than actively selling A-shares. The next test is whether the CSI 300 can hold the 4,900 psychological level into the close.

A股主要指数下跌，沪深300跌2.77%至4,919.39点，深证成指跌3.17%，上证综指跌1.37%。大盘受到全球AI/半导体去风险化的拖累，通信设备和机械设备板块资金流出居前。

不过，国内主题性板块仍有韧性。半导体封测、医疗服务和数字芯片设计个股获资金流入，上海世界移动通信大会与科技自主叙事提供了支撑。央行通过逆回购净投放人民币2,422亿元，并将人民币中间价设在6.8195，较前一日贬值24个基点。北向资金基本呈现零净流入，说明外资目前处于观望而非主动抛售A股。接下来需关注沪深300能否守住4,900点心理关口。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

北向资金午盘几乎没有净买卖，呈现观望状态。沪股通上涨387家、下跌1,240家；深股通上涨450家、下跌1,409家，个股跌多涨少，外资未主动加仓。

南向资金 #

南向资金继续保持净流入。港股通（沪）净买入约人民币15.54亿元，港股通（深）净买入约人民币17.53亿元，合计约人民币33.07亿元，主要流向盈富基金等大盘ETF及超跌科技股。

汇率与宏观 #

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

The U.S. and Iran are implementing the Islamabad MOU signed after President Trump declared the deal “complete” on June 14. High-level talks at Bürgenstock on June 21 produced a roadmap and a Lebanon de-confliction cell, with technical working groups beginning June 23. The U.S. Treasury issued a 60-day General License for Iranian oil transactions through August 21. Tanker traffic through Hormuz improved to 35-36 vessels on June 22-23, the busiest since the war began, though Iran’s June 20 re-closure declaration remains disputed by CENTCOM.

美国和伊朗正在落实伊斯兰堡谅解备忘录，此前特朗普总统于6月14日宣布协议“已完成”。6月21日在比尔根斯托克举行的高层会谈形成了路线图，并设立了黎巴嫩冲突降级小组，技术工作组于6月23日启动。美国财政部发布了一项截至8月21日的60天通用许可证，授权伊朗石油交易。霍尔木兹海峡通航量6月22-23日改善至35-36艘，为战争以来最繁忙，但伊朗6月20日宣布重新关闭海峡的说法仍遭中央司令部质疑。

受影响板块分析

关键时间节点

• 6月23-25日：黎巴嫩与以色列在华盛顿举行会谈
• 7月9日：美国互惠关税90天暂停期到期
• 8月21日：美国对伊朗石油交易60天通用许可证到期

2. 俄乌战争 #

The conflict remains entrenched in eastern Ukraine with no breakthrough on the diplomatic front. Sanctions on Russian energy and financial flows are largely priced in, and European defense budgets continue to rise. The market impact has faded relative to the Iran shock, but any escalation involving NATO supply lines or energy infrastructure could quickly reignite risk-off flows.

俄乌冲突仍在乌克兰东部僵持，外交层面未见突破。对俄罗斯能源和金融流动的制裁已基本被市场消化，欧洲国防预算持续增加。相对于伊朗冲击，其市场影响已减弱，但任何涉及北约补给线或能源基础设施的升级都可能迅速重新点燃避险资金。

受影响板块分析

关键时间节点

• 7月：欧盟对俄制裁续审
• 7月8-9日：北约峰会，关注军费承诺

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

The USTR is in the middle of its Section 301 four-year review, with continuation requests due between June 24 and August 22. A 90-day reciprocal tariff pause expires July 9, and the USTR has scheduled hearings on July 7 for its forced-labor investigation covering 60 economies. The Trump administration continues to use tariff threats as leverage, keeping supply-chain relocation into Vietnam, Mexico and India on track.

美国贸易代表办公室正在进行301条款四年期复审，相关延续请求提交期为6月24日至8月22日。90天互惠关税暂停期将于7月9日到期，美国贸易代表办公室还安排在7月7日就覆盖60个经济体的强迫劳动调查举行听证会。特朗普政府继续以关税威胁作为谈判筹码，推动供应链向越南、墨西哥和印度转移。

受影响板块分析

关键时间节点

• 7月7日：美国贸易代表办公室强迫劳动调查听证会
• 7月9日：互惠关税90天暂停期到期
• 8月22日：301条款复审延续请求截止

4. 其他活跃冲突 #

Israel-Hezbollah fighting in southern Lebanon continues despite the June 19 ceasefire, with the Lebanese Health Ministry reporting over 4,175 deaths. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea remain a secondary shipping risk, though traffic disruption has been overshadowed by the Hormuz crisis.

尽管6月19日达成停火，以色列与真主党在黎巴嫩南部的战斗仍在继续，黎巴嫩卫生部报告死亡人数已超过4,175人。胡塞武装在红海发动的袭击仍是次要航运风险，但其影响已被霍尔木兹危机掩盖。

专家研判

• 相对受益方向

  1. 国产半导体设备：北方华创(002371.SZ)、中微公司(688012.SS)，科技自主叙事与本土化扩产共振。
  2. 晶圆代工/先进封测：台积电(TSM)、日月光(ASX)，先进制程定价权提升。
  3. 航空/运输：国泰航空(00293.HK)、ANA(9202.T)，油价回落与战争风险溢价下降降低成本。
  4. LNG进口/替代能源：新奥能源(02688.HK)、Cheniere(LNG)，欧洲去俄气需求持续。
  5. 公用事业/高股息：中华电(00002.HK)、关西电力(9503.T)，防御属性在市场波动中受青睐。

• 需要回避方向

  1. 高贝塔AI存储/半导体：三星电子(005930.KS)、SK海力士(000660.KS)，去杠杆与估值修正风险未释放完毕。
  2. 集装箱航运/油轮：马士基(MAERSK.B)、中远海控(601919.SS)，战争溢价回落叠加需求疲软。
  3. 对美出口汽车：现代汽车(005380.KS)、起亚(000270.KS)，面临关税不确定性与韩元走弱双重压力。
  4. 中国地产/消费：碧桂园(02007.HK)、华润万象生活(01209.HK)，内需疲弱与关税阴云并存。

• 情景分析（下一个关键节点：7月9日互惠关税暂停期到期）

  • 情景A（50%概率）： 暂停期延长或达成新协议，市场情绪企稳，AI业绩指引修复带动科技股反弹。
  • 情景B（35%概率）： 关税重新生效，中国及韩国出口链进一步承压，美元走强，风险资产延续回调。
  • 情景C（15%概率）： 霍尔木兹海峡或黎巴嫩局势升级，油价与黄金跳涨，风险资产跌幅扩大。

关键主题 #

• AI/半导体去杠杆：KOSPI连续两日暴跌，日经与A股科技板块同步回调，高估值AI仓位正在经历结构性修正。
• 美伊局势边际缓和：油价与黄金大跌，但海峡通航状态仍存争议，能源与航运板块的风险溢价尚未完全消退。
• 日本央行鹰派转向：会议纪要释放加速加息信号，利率敏感板块承压，日元贬值对出口商的支撑被全球风险厌恶抵消。
• 台湾逆势收红：台积电涨价消息提供基本面锚点，本地资金逢低买入，显示对AI供应链长期逻辑仍有信心。
• 关税截止日期临近：7月9日互惠关税暂停期与301条款复审成为下半年初最重要的政策风险节点。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。