亚洲午盘 — 2026-06-18

市场概览 #

亚洲市场周四午盘呈现极端分化：东北亚芯片股市场在AI内存超级周期与霍尔木兹局势边际缓和的双重催化下爆发，韩国KOSPI历史性突破9,000点，台湾加权与日经225同步创高；反观港股与A股主板则在政策利好消化与获利回吐压力下走势偏弱。WTI原油跌破75美元，地缘风险溢价快速出清，而美元指数反弹至100上方，10年期美债收益率持平于4.46%。

指数表现 #

* HSI、沪深300及上证综指数据日期为2026-06-17收盘；东北亚指数数据日期为2026-06-18。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX extended its parabolic run, surging 4.76% to a fresh record of 46,270.82 as AI infrastructure capex optimism continued to overwhelm broader concerns about market breadth. TSMC and the Apple supply chain remained the gravitational center, while domestic funds and foreign longs appeared to chase momentum into the close. The electronics sub-index sharply outperformed financials and petrochemicals, reinforcing the narrow but powerful leadership of the AI semiconductor complex.

台湾加权指数延续抛物线式涨势，大涨4.76%至46,270.82点再创新高。AI基础设施资本支出乐观情绪继续压倒对市场广度的担忧，台积电及苹果供应链仍是市场引力中心，本土基金与外资多头似乎在收盘前继续追逐动量。电子类股指数大幅跑赢金融与石化板块，强化了AI半导体板块 narrow but powerful（狭窄但强劲）的领涨格局。

韩国 #

South Korea’s KOSPI delivered one of the most dramatic single-session moves in modern market history, rocketing 16.16% to close above the 9,000-point threshold for the first time ever at 9,018.79. The rally was concentrated in the AI memory duopoly: SK Hynix hit a fresh intraday record after delivering next-generation AI memory samples to customers, while Samsung Electronics surged on renewed confidence that it is closing the HBM4 gap with its domestic rival. Foreign buying was the dominant flow, with domestic institutions and retail investors largely de-grossing into the panic-like upside. The move also reflected relief that the Strait of Hormuz framework deal would lower energy-security risk for the import-dependent economy.

韩国KOSPI创下现代市场史上最激进的单日涨幅之一，暴涨16.16%，史上首次突破9,000点大关，收于9,018.79点。涨势集中在AI存储双寡头：SK海力士在向下游客户交付下一代AI内存样品后创下盘中新高；三星电子则在市场重新相信其正缩小与本土对手HBM4差距的背景下大幅飙升。外资买盘主导流向，本土机构与散户多在恐慌式上涨中减仓。涨势亦反映市场对霍尔木兹框架协议将降低这个高度依赖进口经济体能源安全风险的宽慰。

日本 #

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 7.88% to 71,223.79, driven by a powerful rotation back into exporters and semiconductor equipment names as USD/JPY held near 160. The weak yen continued to flatter earnings revisions for automakers and machinery exporters, while Tokyo Electron and Advantest benefited from the regional AI capex narrative. The breadth was notably better than in Taiwan, with non-tech cyclicals also participating, though much of the upside remained tied to the semiconductor complex and yen weakness rather than purely domestic reflation.

日经225跳涨7.88%至71,223.79点，美元/日元维持在160附近，出口商与半导体设备股迎来强劲资金回流。日元疲软继续利好汽车与机械出口商的盈利上修，东京电子与爱德万测试也受益于区域内AI资本支出叙事。市场广度明显优于台湾，非科技周期股亦有参与，但大部分涨幅仍与半导体板块及日元弱势挂钩，而非单纯由国内再通胀驱动。

香港 #

Hong Kong equities softened, with the Hang Seng Index closing the previous session 0.74% lower at 24,312.16 and midday connect-flow data pointing to a further 1.7% decline as mainland investors took profits in tech and property beta. The Hang Seng Tech Index underperformed, with profit-taking visible in internet platforms and EV battery names after a sharp run-up. Southbound flows were mixed: Shanghai Connect recorded a modest net inflow, while Shenzhen Connect saw a net outflow, suggesting selective de-grossing rather than a wholesale risk-off.

港股走弱，恒生指数前收盘报24,312.16点，下跌0.74%；港股通盘中资金流向显示午盘进一步下跌约1.7%，内地投资者在科技与地产贝塔仓位上获利了结。恒生科技指数跑输大盘，互联网平台与电动车电池股在前期大涨后遭遇获利回吐。南向资金流向分化：沪港通录得温和净流入，深港通则录得净流出，显示这是有选择性的减仓，而非全面避险。

中国 #

Mainland A-shares showed a split picture at midday: the Shanghai Composite edged 0.40% higher to 4,108.08 on the previous close, while real-time trading saw the Shanghai board slip 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component rise 0.57%, and the ChiNext Index gain 1.39%. The STAR 50 was the standout, surging 3.60% as semiconductors, CPU/GPU, and wafer-fab names rallied on policy signals from the Lujiazui Forum. The People’s Bank of China, CSRC, and SAFE unveiled a package of incremental measures, including support for tech financing and capital-market opening, which provided a clear sectoral tailwind for domestic chipmakers such as Cambricon and Hygon.

A股呈现分化格局：上证综指前收盘微涨0.40%至4,108.08点；而实时交易中，沪指午盘下跌0.37%，深成指上涨0.57%，创业板指上涨1.39%。科创50最为亮眼，大涨3.60%，半导体、CPU/GPU及晶圆制造股受陆家嘴论坛政策信号提振而走强。人民银行、证监会、国家外汇管理局宣布一揽子增量政策，包括对科技融资与资本市场开放的支持，为寒武纪、海光信息等本土芯片股提供了明确的板块顺风。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

沪股通与深股通净流入数据均显示为0.0亿元人民币，数据源暂无法提供有效北向买卖盘；从盘面来看，A股午盘上涨个股约1,952家，下跌个股约3,444家，结构性行情特征显著。

南向资金 #

深港通录得净流出22.21亿元人民币，沪港通小幅净流入14.99亿元人民币，合计南向资金净卖出约7.22亿元人民币，显示内地资金对港股高位获利了结。

汇率与宏观 #

宏观要点：WTI原油大跌7.90%至74.37美元，主要反映美伊初步框架协议下霍尔木兹风险溢价的快速出清。黄金在4,333美元附近企稳，显示避险需求并未完全消退。美元指数反弹至100.25，与美联储偏鹰派立场一致；美国10年期国债收益率持平于4.46%。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势

The United States and Iran reached a preliminary ceasefire and diplomatic framework over the weekend of June 13–14, with President Trump confirming an end to the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. A formal memorandum of understanding is scheduled for signing in Switzerland on June 19, 2026, followed by a fragile 60-day reopening window for the Strait of Hormuz. Key terms on sanctions relief, nuclear concessions, and frozen-asset release remain under negotiation, and Israeli military activity in Lebanon continues to pose a breakdown risk.

美伊于6月13–14日周末达成初步停火与外交框架协议，特朗普确认终止美国海军对伊朗港口的封锁。正式谅解备忘录定于2026年6月19日在瑞士签署，随后霍尔木兹海峡将进入一个脆弱的60天重新开放窗口。制裁解除、核让步及解冻资产等核心条款仍在谈判中，而以色列在黎巴嫩的军事行动仍是协议破裂风险。

受影响板块分析：

关键时间节点：

• 2026-06-19：美伊MOU在瑞士正式签署，任何延误或条款意外都将引发油价与风险资产的重新定价。
• 2026-07-19前后：60天停火窗口过半，核谈判进展与以色列-黎巴嫩局势将成为协议能否延续的试金石。
• 2026-08月中旬：若MOU顺利执行，霍尔木兹商业航运有望恢复至接近正常水平。

专家研判：

• 相对受益方向：

  1. 航空 / 机场运营（航油成本下降）
  2. 海运集装箱（运费波动率下降，供应链修复）
  3. 半导体设备与材料（地缘不确定性下降，资本开支回升）
  4. 消费类出口企业（能源成本回落提振利润率）
  5. 下游化工（石脑油等原料成本下降）

• 需要回避方向：

  1. 上游油气开采（油价风险溢价出清）
  2. 油轮 / 航运战争险受益股（运费与保费回落）
  3. 军工 / 国防（短期叙事降温）
  4. 黄金矿业（避险需求部分撤离）

• 情景分析：

  • 基准情景（55%概率）：MOU如期签署，60天窗口内基本维持停火，油价在70–80美元区间震荡。市场关注点从地缘风险转向企业盈利与AI资本开支。
  • 乐观情景（25%概率）：核谈判取得实质性突破，伊朗原油出口逐步恢复，油价跌至65–70美元。全球通胀预期回落，风险资产估值进一步扩张。
  • 悲观情景（20%概率）：以色列在黎巴嫩军事行动升级或伊朗国内否决协议，霍尔木兹通航再度受阻，油价可能重新冲击100美元以上，风险资产遭遇快速 de-risking。

2. 俄乌战争 #

最新态势

The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains in a protracted phase with no near-term diplomatic breakthrough. The EU extended its economic sanctions against Russia through July 2026, while Switzerland, Canada, and the UK added new designations. The Central Bank of Russia is challenging the EU mechanism that uses frozen Russian sovereign assets to back a EUR 90 billion loan package to Ukraine, and separately filed for enforcement of an RUB 18.7 trillion judgment against Euroclear.

俄乌冲突仍处于旷日持久的阶段，近期无外交突破。欧盟将对俄经济制裁延长至2026年7月，瑞士、加拿大和英国也新增了制裁名单。俄罗斯央行正在欧盟法院挑战以被冻结俄主权资产为担保、向乌克兰提供900亿欧元贷款机制的合法性，并另行就Euroclear冻结俄资产提起18.7万亿卢布的损害赔偿执行申请。

受影响板块分析：

关键时间节点：

• 2026-07-31：欧盟对俄经济制裁下一次审查节点。
• 2026-08-01：OFAC对俄油轮相关通用许可证到期，关注是否续期。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

最新态势

U.S.-China trade tensions remain unresolved but are largely treated as a negotiation backdrop rather than an imminent shock. The USTR proposed additional Section 301 duties on forced-labor grounds for roughly 60 economies on June 2, 2026, with public comments due July 6 and hearings on July 7. China has launched investigations into U.S. trade practices and maintains suspended rare-earth export controls until November 10, 2026.

中美贸易紧张关系尚未解决，但市场更多将其视为谈判背景而非迫在眉睫的冲击。美国贸易代表办公室于2026年6月2日就所谓强迫劳动问题提议对约60个经济体加征301条款关税，公众意见征集截止日期为7月6日，听证会定于7月7日。中国已启动对美国贸易做法的调查，并将稀土出口管制暂停至2026年11月10日。

受影响板块分析：

关键时间节点：

• 2026-07-06：USTR 301关税公众意见截止。
• 2026-07-07：USTR 301关税公开听证会。
• 2026-11-10：中国稀土出口管制暂停到期。

关键主题 #

• AI内存超级周期：SK海力士与三星电子领涨，HBM4样品交付与产能售罄强化结构性需求叙事。
• 霍尔木兹风险溢价出清：美伊框架协议推动WTI原油跌破75美元，能源敏感型板块重新定价。
• 韩国KOSPI里程碑：指数首次突破9,000点，外资主导买盘，本土资金逢高减仓。
• 中国政策增量：陆家嘴论坛一揽子措施利好科技融资与资本市场开放，科创50显著跑赢主板。
• 美联储鹰派暂停：10年期美债收益率维持4.46%，美元指数反弹压制非美资产估值扩张空间。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。