亚洲午盘 — 2026-06-04

市场概览 #

亚洲股市周四午盘呈现极端分化格局。韩国KOSPI以5.64%的史诗级涨幅一骑绝尘，台湾加权指数大涨2.86%重返46,000点上方，日经225续涨1.60%逼近历史新高；而港股及中概科技板块延续弱势，隔夜美股中概ETF KWEB重挫3.92%，恒生指数昨日已收跌1.56%。宏观层面，WTI原油暴涨3.43%至95.32美元，霍尔木兹海峡封锁进入第四个月，地缘溢价持续支撑大宗商品；美元指数微升0.28%至99.48，10年期美债收益率上行4bp至4.49%。

指数表现 #

* 恒生指数、沪深300、上证综指为2026-06-03收盘数据。今日早盘：恒生指数跌1.39%，上证指数跌0.43%，深证成指跌0.46%。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX surged 2.86% to 46,011.61, reclaiming the 46,000 psychological level as AI-related names led a broad-based rally. TSMC and the Apple supply chain complex benefited from renewed optimism around hyperscaler capex plans, while local institutional buying provided a firm bid under the market. The breadth was solidly positive, with advancing issues outpacing decliners by a wide margin. USD/TWD edged up 0.19% to 31.48, reflecting mild NT dollar softness against the firming greenback but not enough to derail foreign investor appetite.

台湾加权指数大涨2.86%至46,011.61点，重新站上46,000点心理关口，AI相关板块引领普涨行情。台积电及苹果供应链受超大规模云厂商资本开支计划回暖的乐观情绪提振，本土机构买盘为市场提供坚实支撑。市场广度良好，上涨个股数量远多于下跌。美元/台币微升0.19%至31.48，反映美元走强背景下新台币小幅走弱，但不足以动摇外资参与度。

韩国 #

KOSPI exploded 5.64% higher to 8,692.45, notching one of the largest single-day gains in recent years and blowing through multiple technical resistance levels. The memory-chip supercycle narrative reasserted itself with ferocity: SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were the primary engines, as hyperscaler demand for HBM3E and next-generation DRAM shows no signs of deceleration. Foreign investors, who had turned net buyers in late May, accelerated their inflows, creating a vicious short-covering cycle in the derivatives market. The KOSPI is now up roughly 62% year-to-date, cementing its status as the world’s best-performing major benchmark. However, the move’s velocity raises questions about sustainability — the index closed near its session high with virtually no pullback, suggesting FOMO (fear of missing out) positioning rather than measured accumulation. The Korean won weakened 2.29% to 1,529.46 per dollar, an unusually large FX move on an equity-up day, possibly reflecting exporter hedging or offshore profit repatriation.

韩国KOSPI暴涨5.64%至8,692.45点，创下近年来最大单日涨幅之一，并连破多道技术阻力位。存储芯片超级周期叙事强势回归：SK海力士和三星电子是主要引擎，超大规模客户对HBM3E及下一代DRAM的需求未见放缓迹象。外资在5月底转为净买入后加速流入，在衍生品市场形成猛烈的空头回补循环。KOSPI年初至今累计上涨约62%，巩固了其全球表现最佳主要基准指数的地位。然而，涨速之快令人质疑持续性——指数几乎以日内高点收盘、无明显回落，显示 Fear of Missing Out（错失恐惧症）式追涨而非理性建仓。韩元大幅贬值2.29%至1,529.46，在权益大涨日出现如此剧烈的汇市波动颇为罕见，可能反映出口商对冲或离岸资金汇回。

深度分析: 从结构上看，今日涨幅的约60%由半导体双雄贡献，这意味着若今晚费城半导体指数(SOX)回调，KOSPI明日可能面临同等幅度的均值回归。期权市场隐含波动率跳升，但远未达到恐慌水平，说明市场仍在定价趋势延续而非尾部风险。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 advanced 1.60% to 67,393.49, continuing its methodical march toward uncharted territory. Semiconductor equipment makers (Tokyo Electron, Advantest) and automakers outperformed, while the weaker yen — USD/JPY firmed 0.44% to 159.97 — provided a textbook tailwind for exporters. Domestic institutional rebalancing ahead of the June quarter-end likely added a bid to large-caps. Market internals were healthy, with the Topix rising in lockstep and volume running above the 20-day average. The proximity to the 68,000 round number may act as a near-term magnet, though any sharp JPY depreciation beyond 160 could trigger verbal intervention from the Ministry of Finance.

日经225上涨1.60%至67,393.49点，继续稳步向未知高位推进。半导体设备商（东京电子、爱德万测试）和汽车制造商跑赢大盘，而日元走弱——美元/日元升0.44%至159.97——为出口商提供了教科书式的顺风。6月季末前的本土机构再平衡可能为大盘股增添了买盘。市场内部结构健康，东证指数同步上涨，成交量高于20日均量。68,000点整数关口可能构成短期磁吸效应，但日元若急速跌破160，可能触发财务省的口头干预。

香港 #

HSI closed Wednesday at 25,633.21, down 1.56% or 405 points, the worst performer among major Asian benchmarks. The selling was broad-based across tech, property, and financials. The KWEB ETF plunged 3.92% in the US overnight session, and its Hong Kong-listed proxies (Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan) faced heavy de-risking ahead of the US jobs data Friday. Property developers weakened further on persistent concerns about mainland China housing inventory and the firmer USD/CNY fix. Today’s early session saw the HSI extend losses by another 1.39%, with southbound flows showing a net buying of HKD 2.9 billion — a classic “buying the dip” pattern from mainland investors that has yet to stabilize the index.

恒生指数周三收于25,633.21点，下跌1.56%即405点，是亚洲主要基准指数中表现最差的市场。科技、地产和金融板块普遍承压。隔夜美股KWEB ETF暴跌3.92%，其港股映射标的（阿里巴巴、腾讯、美团）在美国非农就业数据公布前遭遇大规模去杠杆。地产开发商在内地楼市库存及美元/人民币中间价走强的持续担忧下进一步走弱。今日早盘恒生指数续跌1.39%，南向资金净买入约29亿港元——这是内地投资者典型的"抄底"模式，但尚未能稳住指数。

深度分析: 恒生指数已连续两个交易日收于26,000点下方，该位置此前被视为关键支撑。若今日收盘无法收复25,800，技术面将打开向25,200回调的空间。中概科技股的估值折价正在扩大，反映的不仅是地缘风险，还有市场对美国新一轮关税措施的定价。

中国 #

China’s mainland indices closed modestly higher on Wednesday — CSI 300 +0.49%, Shanghai Composite +0.22% — but the overnight US session weakness in China ADRs and this morning’s northbound board data (Shanghai Comp -0.43%, Shenzhen Comp -0.46%) paint a more cautious picture. Semiconductor names, which had been the dominant momentum factor for weeks, faced profit-taking as the SOX index pulled back from record highs. Humanoid-robot and EV-battery themes showed rotation interest but lacked the capitalization to offset tech-heavyweight selling. The PBOC kept the daily USD/CNY fixing relatively stable at 6.78, a signal that policymakers are unwilling to let currency weakness amplify equity-market anxiety ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday.

中国A股周三小幅收高——沪深300涨0.49%，上证综指涨0.22%——但隔夜美股中概股走弱及今早北向数据显示上证指数跌0.43%、深证成指跌0.46%，描绘出一幅更为谨慎的图景。半导体板块作为数周来的主导动量因子，在费城半导体指数从历史高位回落后遭遇获利了结。人形机器人和电动车电池主题显示出轮动兴趣，但市值体量不足以抵消科技权重股抛压。央行将美元/人民币日中间价稳定在6.78附近，表明在端午假期前，政策层不愿让汇率走弱放大股市焦虑。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

2026-06-04早盘，北向资金呈现观望态势，沪股通与深股通净买入均接近零。从个股涨跌比看，沪股通上涨405只/下跌1,104只，深股通上涨420只/下跌1,282只，市场普跌格局下外资选择按兵不动。A股早盘整体承压，上证指数跌0.43%，深证成指跌0.46%。

南向资金 #

港股通(沪)净买入29.05亿港元，港股通(深)净买入0.33亿港元，合计约29.38亿港元。尽管南向资金持续抄底，但恒生指数早盘仍跌1.39%，港股通标的涨跌比为117:459，显示抛盘主要来自非港股通渠道或本地机构。南向资金今年以来累计流入规模已创历史新高，但近期"越跌越买"的策略尚未转化为指数企稳。

汇率与宏观 #

宏观要点:

• WTI原油大涨3.43%至95.32美元，霍尔木兹海峡封锁持续支撑地缘溢价
• 美国10年期国债收益率上行4bp至4.49%，实际利率走高对成长股估值构成压力
• 黄金维持4,499美元高位，与原油同步上涨，显示避险与通胀预期交织
• 美元/韩元跳升2.29%至1,529.46，与KOSPI暴涨形成罕见的股汇背离

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

伊朗战争与霍尔木兹海峡封锁 #

最新态势: The Iran-Hormuz conflict has entered its fourth month since the “Epic Fury” military operation began on February 28, 2026. Iranian forces declared the Strait “closed” on March 4 and have carried out at least 10 confirmed attacks on commercial vessels. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre reports shipping traffic through the Strait has fallen 97% from normal levels, with daily oil flows stabilizing around 600,000 barrels versus the pre-war 20 million barrels. The U.S. Congress CRS report dated March 11 noted that a prolonged disruption would create oil-market conditions with “no historical precedent.” Iran’s parliament passed a bill on March 30 to impose transit fees on vessels, and in April, Iran seized a commercial vessel for the first time since the war began. European and U.S. navies are conducting mine-clearing operations, but full reopening remains elusive.

伊朗战争已进入第四个月。自2月28日"史诗怒火"军事行动启动以来，伊朗于3月4日宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡，并对商船实施了至少10次经确认的袭击。英国海上贸易行动中心报告称，海峡航运量较正常水平下降97%，日均石油流量从战前的2,000万桶降至约60万桶。美国国会CRS 3月11日报告指出，长期中断将造成"史无前例"的油市状况。伊朗议会3月30日通过向通行船只征收通行费的法案，4月首次在战争期间扣押商船。欧美海军正在开展扫雷行动，但全面复航仍遥遥无期。

受影响板块分析:

关键时间节点:

• 2026年6月中旬: 美国国会将就霍尔木兹海峡军事行动授权进行辩论，任何扩大军事介入的信号将引发油市剧烈波动
• 2026年6月底: 欧盟计划就伊朗海峡收费法案向国际海洋法法庭提起诉讼，法律博弈升级
• 2026年7月4日: 卡塔尔Ras Laffan LNG设施若仍无法恢复运营，全球LNG市场将被迫进入配给模式

专家研判:

• 相对受益方向: (1) 美国页岩油企业——油价80美元以上即进入高现金流区间，EOG Resources、Diamondback Energy的盈亏平衡点最低；(2) 油轮公司——运距拉长是结构性利好，2026年VLCC运力增速仅2%，供需缺口扩大；(3) 黄金矿业——地缘不确定性支撑金价维持4,500美元上方，Barrick Gold、Newmont Corporation自由现金流充裕；(4) 军工防务——欧洲军费扩张+美国印太再平衡，Lockheed Martin、雷神技术订单能见度延伸至2028年；(5) 日本商社——三菱商事、三井物产持有大量上游资源权益，商品通胀直接增厚利润。

• 需要回避方向: (1) 全球航空公司——航油成本每涨10%，航空公司营业利润平均下降15-20%；(2) 欧洲化工—— BASF等依赖廉价俄罗斯管道气和中东石脑油的双重打击；(3) 高负债新兴市场主权债——斯里兰卡、巴基斯坦等石油进口国外汇储备承压；(4) 纯电商/物流——燃油附加费飙升将侵蚀最后一公里配送利润。

• 情景分析:

  • 基准情景 (55%概率): 海峡维持半封锁状态至Q3，WTI在90-105美元区间波动。市场逐步适应新均衡，波动率回落。
  • 升级情景 (30%概率): 6月美军加大护航力度触发伊朗直接攻击美军舰只，油价单日跳升15-20%至110-120美元。风险资产全面回调，VIX突破30。
  • 缓和情景 (15%概率): 秘密外交渠道达成临时停火，海峡部分复航。油价回落至75-80美元，油轮股单日暴跌10%以上。

关键主题 #

• 韩国芯片超级周期: KOSPI暴涨5.64%验证存储芯片叙事未终结，HBM3E供需缺口是核心驱动力，但涨速过快需警惕均值回归
• 霍尔木兹溢价再定价: WTI原油大涨3.43%逼近95美元，海峡封锁进入第四个月，市场对供应中断的耐心正在消耗
• 中概科技承压: KWEB隔夜跌3.92%，港股互联网三连阴，反映中美审计监管不确定性及关税阴云未散
• 日元160关口隐忧: 美元/日元159.97逼近160心理防线，日本财务省口头干预风险上升，或间接影响日股外资流向
• A股节前谨慎: 端午假期临近，北向资金观望、半导体回调，市场缺乏主线，人形机器人概念能否接力存疑

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。