亚洲午盘 — 2026-06-03

市场概览 #

亚洲市场今日迎来现代史上最为壮观的集体暴涨之一。台湾加权指数飙升6.39%，日经225暴涨6.15%，韩国综合指数昨日收高9.37%后今日休市。三地指数的同步飙升由AI基础设施资本支出超级周期主导，台积电、三星电子及日本半导体设备股成为核心推力。宏观层面，WTI原油自月内低位反弹8.60%至$94.87，但仍远低于4月$120以上的峰值；黄金下跌1.13%至$4,508.90，避险情绪进一步降温。美元指数微涨0.35%至99.26，美国10年期国债收益率回落至4.46%。

指数表现 #

^1 KOSPI数据为2026-06-02收盘，韩国今日休市。 ^2 HSI数据为2026-06-02收盘，今日午盘恒生指数报跌1.68%。 ^3 沪深300及上证综指数据为2026-06-02收盘；A股今日午盘上证涨0.56%、深证成指涨2.31%、创业板指涨3.97%。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX surged 6.39% to an unprecedented 46,423.77, marking one of the largest single-session gains in the index’s history. The rally was almost entirely driven by TSMC (2330.TW) and the broader AI semiconductor complex, as Computex 2026 delivered a fresh wave of catalysts. Samsung’s unveiling of its 8th-gen HBM5 prototype with HPB thermal management technology reinforced the conviction that the memory upgrade cycle is accelerating, directly benefiting TSMC’s advanced packaging (CoWoS) order book. Market breadth, however, remained narrow — non-tech sectors failed to participate meaningfully, with the EWT US-listed ETF closing up only 0.65% on June 2, creating a significant gap that implies either a catch-up bid tonight or an unsustainable dislocation. Foreign investors have been net buyers for consecutive sessions, and domestic funds continue to rebalance into AI-heavy names following regulatory relaxation on single-stock holding limits. The key risk is that this velocity — the index has gained roughly 13% in the past month — invites profit-taking and potential circuit-breaker scrutiny.

台湾加权指数暴涨6.39%至史无前例的46,423.77点，创下该指数历史上最大单日涨幅之一。上涨几乎完全由台积电(2330.TW)及更广泛的AI半导体板块推动，Computex 2026带来新一轮催化剂。三星电子发布第八代HBM5原型并引入HPB热管理技术，强化了内存升级周期正在加速的信念，直接利好台积电先进封装(CoWoS)订单。然而市场广度依然偏窄——非科技板块未能有效参与，EWT美股ETF在6月2日仅收涨0.65%，形成显著裂口，意味着今晚要么出现补涨买盘，要么台股存在不可持续的价格偏离。外资连续多个交易日净买入，国内基金在单一持股上限监管放宽后继续向AI重仓股再平衡。关键风险在于，这样的涨速——该指数过去一个月涨幅约13%——将引发获利了结及潜在的熔断机制审视。

韩国 #

South Korea’s KOSPI delivered a historic 9.37% surge to close at 8,801.49 on June 2 — a magnitude last seen during the Asian Financial Crisis recovery. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) jumped more than 11%, with its market capitalization approaching the $1.5 trillion mark, while SK Hynix (000660.KS) soared approximately 10% to fresh all-time highs above KRW 1.6 million. The catalyst was a “perfect storm”: AMD’s blowout data-center revenue guidance, reports that Samsung is extending memory chip contract durations to 3-5 years, and floating data-center order inquiries hitting the nation’s big-three shipyards (HD Hyundai Heavy, Hanwha Ocean, Samsung Heavy). Notably, the EWY US-listed ETF closed down 1.0% on the same day, suggesting international investors are taking profits into extreme strength or that the KOSPI move was driven predominantly by domestic retail and institutional momentum. South Korean markets are closed today for a national holiday, leaving the global market to digest whether this parabolic move has further legs or marks a blow-off top.

韩国KOSPI在6月2日历史性暴涨9.37%，收于8,801.49点——如此幅度上次出现还要追溯到亚洲金融危机后的复苏期。三星电子(005930.KS)跳涨逾11%，市值逼近1.5万亿美元大关；SK海力士(000660.KS)飙升约10%，创下逾160万韩元的历史新高。催化剂构成了一场"完美风暴"：AMD炸裂的数据中心营收指引、三星考虑将内存芯片合约期限延长至3-5年的报道，以及浮动式数据中心订单咨询涌入韩国三大船厂(HD现代重工、韩华海洋、三星重工)。值得注意的是，EWY美股ETF同日收跌1.0%，暗示国际投资者正在极端强势中获利了结，或KOSPI的上涨主要由国内散户及机构动能推动。韩国市场今日因国定假日休市，全球市场正在消化这波抛物线式上涨究竟是还有后续，还是标志着阶段性顶部。

日本 #

Japan’s Nikkei 225 exploded 6.15% to 68,673.84, carving out its largest one-day advance in years and sending the benchmark to fresh record highs. The move was led by semiconductor equipment makers and AI-adjacent names: Advantest (6857.TP) and Tokyo Electron (8035.TP) surged on renewed confidence in the structural — rather than merely cyclical — nature of the AI chip upcycle. SoftBank (9984.TP) also benefited from the broad-based risk appetite recovery. The EWJ US-listed ETF gained 0.7% on June 2, a much more muted reaction than the Nikkei’s cash-market explosion, implying that much of today’s move was driven by Tokyo-specific buying pressure. The yen held relatively steady at 159.89 per dollar, with the Ministry of Finance showing no immediate appetite to intervene despite the currency remaining near multi-decade lows. With Japan’s tech sector increasingly leveraged to global AI capex, the Nikkei’s correlation with US mega-cap tech has reached new highs — a dynamic that cuts both ways if sentiment shifts.

日本日经225指数暴涨6.15%至68,673.84点，创下多年来最大单日涨幅，并将该基准指数推至历史新高。上涨由半导体设备商及AI相关个股引领：爱德万测试(6857.TP)和东京电子(8035.TP)在AI芯片上行周期具有结构性而非单纯周期性的信心重燃下飙升。软银(9984.TP)亦从广泛的风险偏好复苏中受益。EWY美股ETF在6月2日仅上涨0.7%，反应远较日股现货市场的爆发温和，暗示今日涨幅主要由东京本地买盘压力推动。日元兑美元持稳于159.89，财务省并未表现出立即干预的意愿，尽管日元仍处数十年低点附近。随着日本科技板块与全球AI资本支出的杠杆关联度日益加深，日经225与美股的联动性已达到新高——若情绪转向，这一动态具有双刃剑效应。

香港 #

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 26,038.32 on June 2, up 2.52%, but today’s midday session has seen a -1.68% pullback as profit-taking emerged after the strong US session. Southbound flows via Stock Connect remained exceptionally robust — Shanghai-HK southbound net buy was RMB 55.02 billion and Shenzhen-HK southbound net buy was RMB 13.78 billion, totaling approximately RMB 68.8 billion. Mainland investors continue to aggressively accumulate Hong Kong-listed names, particularly in the semiconductor and memory space. Montage Technology (06809.HK) surged over 10.57% on Samsung’s HBM5 reveal, while GigaDevice (03986.HK) gained 7.24%. The Hang Seng Tech Index has outperformed on the AI narrative, though property and consumer discretionary names lagged. The divergence between yesterday’s +2.52% close and today’s -1.68% midday reading suggests that while the structural bid from southbound flows remains intact, short-term sentiment is vulnerable to any Iran-related headline or US tech profit-taking.

香港恒生指数6月2日收于26,038.32点，上涨2.52%，但今日午盘回落1.68%，在美股强劲表现后出现获利了结。南向资金通过港股通保持异常活跃——沪港通南向净买入550.2亿元人民币，深港通南向净买入137.8亿元人民币，合计约688亿元人民币。内地投资者继续积极增持港股，尤其是半导体及存储芯片相关标的。澜起科技(06809.HK)在三星HBM5发布的刺激下大涨逾10.57%，兆易创新(03986.HK)上涨7.24%。恒生科技指数在AI叙事下跑赢大盘，但地产及可选消费个股表现落后。昨日收盘+2.52%与今日午盘-1.68%之间的背离表明，尽管南向资金的结构性买盘依然稳固，但短期情绪对任何伊朗相关头条或美股科技获利了结都较为敏感。

中国 #

China A-shares showed a mixed but tech-heavy picture. The CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite closed up 1.45% and 0.43% respectively on June 2, while today’s midday session has seen the Shanghai board edge up 0.56%, the Shenzhen Component surge 2.31%, and the ChiNext Index leap 3.97%. Sector rotation was stark: CPO concepts, optical fiber, F5G, copper-cable high-speed connections, and EDA names led the charge, while film & entertainment, education, and liquor stocks underperformed. The narrow leadership — technology and hardware names driving most of the index upside while the majority of individual stocks declined — mirrors the Taiwan and Korea experience. Northbound flow data was unavailable at the time of writing. The market is effectively split into two halves: AI infrastructure beneficiaries trading at expanding multiples, and the rest of the economy facing persistent margin pressure from elevated energy costs and tariff uncertainty.

中国A股呈现分化但科技股主导的图景。沪深300和上证综指6月2日分别收涨1.45%和0.43%；今日午盘上证指数微涨0.56%，深证成指大涨2.31%，创业板指飙升3.97%。板块轮动极为明显：CPO概念、光纤、F5G、铜缆高速连接及EDA概念领涨，而影视院线、教育及白酒板块表现落后。这种窄头 leadership——科技和硬件个股贡献大部分指数涨幅，而多数个股下跌——与台湾和韩国市场的经验如出一辙。北向资金数据截至发稿时暂缺。市场实际上已分裂为两半：AI基础设施受益者以不断扩张的估值交易，而经济其余部分则面临能源成本高企及关税不确定性带来的持续利润率压力。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

北向资金（沪股通/深股通）今日净买入数据暂缺。从涨跌家数看，沪股通标的578只上涨对930只下跌，深股通标的737只上涨对955只下跌，市场广度偏弱，显示指数涨幅主要由少数大盘科技股权重驱动。

南向资金 #

南向资金今日保持强劲流入：

• 港股通(沪)：净买入 550.22亿元人民币（成交额4,200亿元）
• 港股通(深)：净买入 137.82亿元人民币（成交额4,200亿元）
• 合计净买入约 688.04亿元人民币

内地资金继续通过港股通大举配置香港上市的半导体、AI及互联网标的，成为港股科技板块的核心支撑力量。

汇率与宏观 #

WTI原油从月内低位$86.68附近技术性反弹8.60%，但较4月峰值$120以上仍有逾20%的折价。黄金跌破$4,550关口，避险需求持续降温。人民币兑美元微幅升值0.18%，韩元因本国休市在外汇市场走弱1.03%。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争与霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势（英文）: The Iran war, now in its fourth month, has produced the largest energy supply shock in history according to the IEA. The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed on March 4, removing approximately 20% of global oil shipments. While Brent crude peaked near $126/barrel in late April, prices have since retreated sharply — WTI bounced today to $94.87 but traded as low as $86.68 earlier this week. President Trump has issued multiple ultimatums to Tehran, and peace talks mediated through Pakistan have stalled without a second round. The EIA projects the Strait will remain “effectively closed through late May, with flows slowly starting to resume in late May or early June.” Goldman’s base case now assumes Gulf export normalization by end-June, later than its prior mid-May forecast.

最新态势（中文）: 伊朗战争已进入第四个月，据国际能源署(IEA)评估，这是历史上规模最大的能源供应冲击。霍尔木兹海峡自3月4日起实质上被封锁，全球约20%的石油运输受到影响。尽管布伦特原油在4月底一度逼近每桶126美元，但此后大幅回落——WTI今日反弹至94.87美元，但本周早些时候曾低至86.68美元。特朗普总统已多次向德黑兰发出最后通牒，通过巴基斯坦斡旋的和平谈判在未举行第二轮的情况下陷入僵局。美国能源信息署(EIA)预计海峡将"在5月底前保持实质封闭，5月底或6月初开始缓慢恢复通航"。高盛的基本情境现在假设海湾出口将在6月底前恢复正常，较此前预期的5月中旬有所推迟。

受影响板块分析:

关键时间节点:

• 6月中旬: 特朗普政府评估是否恢复对伊朗能源基础设施的军事打击（Axios此前报道"短促而有力"打击方案）
• 6月底: 高盛基准假设中海湾出口正常化的时间窗口，若届时未实现，油价可能重新测试$110+
• 7月: 美国战略石油储备(SPR)补充招标计划，若油价仍处高位，政府介入可能成为价格上限

专家研判:

• 相对受益方向:

  1. 油气上游: ExxonMobil(XOM)、Chevron(CVX)在高油价环境下自由现金流收益率极具吸引力
  2. 油轮航运: 运距拉长结构性利好VLCC市场，Frontline(FRO)等标的租约价格已锁定上行
  3. 国防军工: 洛克希德·马丁(LMT)、雷神(RTX)——中东及欧洲军费扩张周期持续
  4. 替代能源: 光伏、储能及核电在化石能源高价中相对竞争力提升
  5. 黄金矿业: Newmont(NEM)、Barrick(GOLD)——尽管金价短期回调，$4,500+仍远高于生产成本

• 需要回避方向:

  1. 航空: 航油成本每上涨$10/桶，全球航空业利润约削减$200亿
  2. 化工/化肥: 天然气和石脑油双重成本挤压，欧洲化工产能已出现关停
  3. 高负债新兴市场: 印度、土耳其等能源进口国面临贸易逆差恶化与货币贬值压力
  4. 消费可选/奢侈品: 能源通胀对可支配收入的侵蚀存在6-12个月滞后效应

• 情景分析（下一个关键节点：6月15-20日）:

  • 情景A — 外交突破（概率25%）: 美伊通过第三方达成临时框架协议，海峡部分重启。布油迅速回落至$80-85区间，航空及化工板块出现报复性反弹，黄金跌破$4,300。
  • 情景B — 僵局延续（概率55%）: 谈判继续拖延，海峡维持有限通行。布油在$95-110区间震荡，油气股继续跑赢，市场逐步将高油价定价为"新常态"。
  • 情景C — 军事升级（概率20%）: 美国对伊朗能源设施发动打击，伊朗全面封锁海峡并攻击沙特/阿联酋目标。布油冲击$140+，全球股市出现5-10%的避险抛售，黄金重返$4,800+。

2. 俄乌战争 #

最新态势: 冲突持续但市场关注度已被伊朗战争显著分流。欧盟对俄罗斯的第17轮制裁方案正在谈判中，重点针对影子船队及天然气LNG转运。欧洲国防开支占GDP比例持续上升，德国、波兰及北欧国家的军备订单为本地军工及工业板块提供结构性支撑。

3. 全球关税与贸易冲突 #

最新态势: 美国对华钢铝铜关税已于4月2日上调至50%，中国出口商正通过第三国转口及产能出海（墨西哥、东南亚）应对。半导体领域，美国对华AI芯片出口管制仍在收紧，但中国市场通过国产替代（华为昇腾、寒武纪）及非美渠道采购进行对冲。特朗普政府6月是否宣布新的行业性关税（汽车、医药）是下一个关键观察点。

关键主题 #

• AI芯片超级周期: 三星HBM5原型发布、AMD数据中心指引上调、CoWoS产能持续供不应求，AI基础设施 capex 已从周期性叙事升级为结构性多年主题
• 伊朗局势"坏即是好"定价: 市场不再将霍尔木兹封锁视为未知的尾部风险，而是将其定价为"可控的高价环境"——只要军事升级不发生，高油价反而利好能源股及替代能源投资
• 南向资金持续涌入港股: 内地投资者通过港股通以每月数千亿的节奏配置港股科技及高股息标的，成为港股流动性的核心锚定
• A股科技窄头行情: CPO、光通信、EDA、铜缆高速连接等AI硬件子板块领涨，但全市场多数个股下跌，结构性分化达到极端水平
• 油价技术性反弹: WTI从$86低位反弹至$95附近，短期或测试$100心理关口，但在沙特及美国潜在增产压力下，重回$110+需要新的地缘催化剂

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。