亚洲午盘 — 2026-06-01

市场概览 #

亚洲股市周一午盘呈现极端分化格局。韩国KOSPI在AI存储芯片超级周期的狂热推动下暴涨12.64%，创下该指数有史以来最激进的单日涨幅之一；台湾加权与日经225同步创高，分别收涨4.37%和2.78%。相比之下，A股延续疲弱态势，沪深300与上证综指上周五分别收跌0.45%和0.73%。地缘层面，霍尔木兹海峡通航仍处僵局，WTI原油维持在90美元关口附近震荡，黄金则突破4,500美元大关，避险情绪与风险资产同步升温的罕见组合仍在延续。

指数表现 #

注：HSI、沪深300、上证综指为2026-05-29收盘数据。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX surged 4.37% to a fresh record close of 45,426.38, riding the coattails of the global AI memory-chip supercycle. TSMC (2330.TW) and the broader semiconductor supply chain extended gains as SK Hynix’s trillion-dollar valuation milestone in Seoul triggered a region-wide re-rating of AI hardware plays. Foreign investors returned as net buyers after a brief profit-taking hiatus last week, with the electronics sector accounting for the bulk of index points contribution. The magnitude of the move, however, raises short-term technical overbought flags, with the RSI pushing above 75 on the daily chart.

台湾加权指数大涨4.37%至45,426.38点，续创历史新高。台积电(2330.TW)及整个半导体供应链随全球AI存储芯片超级周期持续上攻，SK Hynix在首尔突破万亿美元市值的消息引发了区域范围内AI硬件板块的重估。外资在上周短暂获利了结后恢复净买入，电子板块贡献了指数涨幅的绝大部分。不过，如此猛烈的攻势也令日线RSI突破75，短期技术面呈现超买信号。

韩国 #

South Korea’s KOSPI delivered one of the most extraordinary single-session rallies in its history, closing up 12.64% at 8,839.86 and surpassing the 8,800 milestone for the first time. The move was almost entirely driven by memory-chip heavyweights SK Hynix (000660.KS) and Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), whose market capitalizations have swelled to $1 trillion and beyond on the back of insatiable AI-driven HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand. SK Hynix alone has surged more than 1,000% over the past twelve months, becoming only the third Asian company to join the trillion-dollar club. Goldman Sachs Research now forecasts 300% earnings growth for Korean semiconductors in 2026, citing a structural shift from cyclical spot pricing to three-to-five-year long-term supply agreements (LTAs) that have dramatically enhanced earnings visibility. Foreign investors piled in with net purchases exceeding 3 trillion won in the first two sessions of the week, reversing months of outflows. The rally’s concentration risk, however, is acute: on Wednesday’s record close, decliners outnumbered advancers by more than 3-to-1, with the KOSDAQ actually dipping into negative territory.

韩国综合指数KOSPI创下该指数历史上最惊人的单日涨幅之一，收报8,839.86点，暴涨12.64%，首次突破8,800点大关。涨势几乎完全由存储芯片双雄SK Hynix(000660.KS)和三星电子(005930.KS)驱动——在AI高带宽存储器(HBM)需求无底洞般膨胀的背景下，这两家巨头的市值已膨胀至万亿美元级别。SK Hynix过去12个月涨幅超过1,000%，成为继三星之后第三家跻身"万亿美元俱乐部"的亚洲企业。高盛研究部目前预测2026年韩国半导体盈利增长将达300%，核心逻辑是行业定价模式正从周期性现货定价向三至五年长期供应协议(LTA)结构性转变，这显著提升了盈利可预见性。外资本周前两日净买入超过3万亿韩元，扭转了此前数月的流出态势。但涨势的集中度风险极为突出：在周三创纪录收盘时，下跌个股数量是上涨个股的三倍以上，而科技股云集的KOSDAQ指数实际上录得了负收益。

日本 #

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.78% to 66,804.34, another record close, as the weaker yen and robust offshore demand for Japanese exporters provided a dual tailwind. The yen’s slide to 159.46 against the dollar—its weakest level in months—boosted the competitive position of Toyota (7203.T), Sony (6758.JP), and other global-facing industrials. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s ultra-dovish stance, reinforced by Tokyo CPI decelerating to 1.4% in May, keeps the yield curve control narrative intact and supports equity risk premiums. Breadth was relatively healthy compared with Korea, with advancing issues outpacing decliners by roughly 2-to-1.

日经225指数上涨2.78%至66,804.34点，再度刷新历史收盘高位。日元兑美元跌至159.46的数月低位，为丰田(7203.T)、索尼(6758.JP)等出口导向型巨头提供了双重顺风。与此同时，日本央行维持超宽松立场，5月东京CPI放缓至1.4%，进一步巩固了收益率曲线控制叙事，支撑了股票风险溢价。与韩国相比，日股广度相对健康，上涨个股与下跌个股之比约为2:1。

香港 #

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged up 0.70% to 25,182.39 in thin Friday trading, with property developers and Chinese internet names providing modest support. Southbound flows through Stock Connect remained robust, with combined net purchases via the Shanghai and Shenzhen channels totaling approximately HK$6.19 billion. The Hang Seng Tech Index outperformed, buoyed by optimism that Chinese regulators may soften their stance on the platform economy ahead of the summer policy window. Real estate stocks, however, continued to lag as May transaction data from mainland tier-1 cities showed sequential deterioration.

香港恒生指数周五温和上涨0.70%至25,182.39点，地产股和中国互联网板块提供了有限支撑。港股通南向资金保持强劲，沪港通与深港通合计净买入约618.6亿港元。恒生科技指数跑赢大盘，市场预期中国监管机构可能在夏季政策窗口前软化对平台经济的立场。不过，房地产股持续落后，内地一线城市5月成交数据显示环比走弱。

中国 #

Mainland China’s equity markets ended last week on a soft note, with the CSI 300 down 0.45% to 4,892.12 and the Shanghai Composite off 0.73% at 4,068.57. The Shenzhen Component fared worse, sliding 1.81%. Market breadth was weak, with northbound flows through Stock Connect showing negligible net buying. Investors appeared to be in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the June 15 index rebalancing, which is expected to see 19 new names added to the CSI 300. On the policy front, the PBOC kept the medium-term lending facility rate unchanged, dousing hopes for an imminent easing move. Defensive sectors—utilities, telecom, and consumer staples—outperformed, while new-energy and EV supply-chain names suffered profit-taking.

A股市场上周五以弱势收尾，沪深300收跌0.45%至4,892.12点，上证综指下跌0.73%至4,068.57点。深证成指表现更差，下挫1.81%。市场广度偏弱，北向资金通过互联互通几乎无净买入。投资者似乎在6月15日指数成分调整前保持观望，届时预计将有19只新股票纳入沪深300。政策方面，央行维持中期借贷便利利率不变，浇灭了市场对立即宽松的期待。防御性板块——公用事业、电信和必选消费——跑赢大盘，而新能源和电动车供应链则遭遇获利回吐。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

北向资金今日数据尚未完整更新。沪股通与深股通上一交易日净买入均接近零，显示外资在A股调整之际态度审慎。

南向资金 #

港股通南向资金今日合计净买入约61.86亿港元。其中，港股通(沪)净买入22.87亿港元，港股通(深)净买入38.99亿港元。南向资金连续多日大幅流入，成为港股近期最重要的边际买盘力量，主要加仓方向为互联网平台、高股息央企及医药板块。

汇率与宏观 #

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势： The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic more than three months after Iran shuttered the chokepoint in retaliation for U.S.-Israeli strikes that began on February 28, 2026. Moody’s Ratings assessed in its May 12 geopolitical risk report that there is a “negligible probability” of a rapid and lasting settlement, projecting disruptions to persist through autumn 2026 at minimum. Even if physical passage were restored within six months, war-risk insurance underwriters—who largely withdrew coverage following sea-mine incidents—would not reinstate capacity overnight, and tanker operators’ rerouted deployment strategies would take quarters to reverse. WTI crude has stabilized around $90/bbl, well below the $120+ peak seen in April, but the market still carries a significant geopolitical risk premium. Gold’s surge to $4,546/oz (+2.23%) reflects ongoing safe-haven demand despite the partial de-escalation narrative.

霍尔木兹海峡在伊朗于2026年2月28日关闭该咽喉要道以报复美以空袭后，已逾三个月未恢复正常商业通航。穆迪评级在5月12日的地缘政治风险评估中认为，快速且持久解决的可能性"微乎其微"，预计干扰至少将持续至2026年秋季。即便六个月内恢复物理通行，在海雷事件后 largely 撤保的战争险承保商也不会在一夜之间恢复承保能力，而油轮运营商重新部署的航线策略逆转则需要数个季度。WTI原油已稳定在90美元/桶附近，远低于4月触及的120美元以上峰值，但市场仍携带显著的地缘政治风险溢价。黄金飙升至4,546美元/盎司(+2.23%)，反映出尽管有部分缓和叙事，避险需求依然强劲。

受影响板块分析：

关键时间节点：

• 6月中旬：OPEC+会议，关注是否增产以填补霍尔木兹缺口
• 6月底：美伊原定于巴基斯坦举行的第二轮谈判窗口（目前停滞）
• 7月4日：美国暂停对伊朗能源设施军事打击的潜在续期节点

专家研判：

• 相对受益方向：高带宽存储器(HBM)、能源勘探、黄金矿业、油轮运输、替代能源（太阳能、核能）
• 需要回避方向：航空客运（燃油成本刚性）、海运集装箱（除油轮外）、高能耗基础材料、中东主权债务敞口较大的欧洲银行
• 情景分析：
  • 情景A（基准，45%概率）：海峡维持低流量状态至秋季，Brent在$85-100区间波动，市场逐步price in长期溢价
  • 情景B（缓和，20%概率）：巴基斯坦斡旋取得突破，海峡部分通航，油价回落至$75-85，能源股大幅回调
  • 情景C（升级，35%概率）：军事冲突再度激化导致完全封闭，Brent突破$150，全球衰退风险骤升

全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

Trump administration’s threat to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods remains on the table, though implementation timelines have been repeatedly pushed back. Markets appear to be treating this as a negotiation tactic rather than a near-term probability, with the S&P 500 and Asian tech names shrugging off headline risk. Supply-chain relocation into Vietnam, Mexico, and India continues apace, but China’s dominant position in rare-earth processing and battery-cell manufacturing remains a structural moat that Western firms cannot easily replicate.

特朗普政府威胁对中国商品加征50%额外关税的说法仍在桌面上，不过实施时间表已被多次推迟。市场似乎将其视为谈判筹码而非近期高概率事件，标普500和亚洲科技股对 headline risk 基本免疫。供应链向越南、墨西哥和印度的转移持续推进，但中国在上游稀土加工和电池制造领域的主导地位仍是西方企业难以复制的结构性护城河。

关键主题 #

• AI存储芯片超级周期：SK Hynix与Samsung的HBM产能已被2026年全年订满，长期供应协议(LTA)取代现货定价，行业从周期性走向结构性增长
• 韩元与韩元资产重估：KOSPI年内翻倍，外资从3月净卖出35万亿韩元转为5月大幅回流，估值修复远未结束
• 日元疲软双刃剑：159+的USD/JPY支撑了日股出口商盈利，但输入性通胀压力对国内消费形成压制
• 黄金与原油分化：黄金突破$4,500反映地缘避险与去美元化长期叙事，而原油在$90企稳显示市场对霍尔木兹僵局的定价已部分钝化
• A股结构性低迷：在外围市场狂欢之际，A股因北向资金审慎、政策宽松预期降温而持续跑输，市场等待6月中旬指数调仓与政策窗口

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。