亚洲午盘 — 2026-05-29

市场概览 #

亚洲市场今日走势极端分化。韩国KOSPI在芯片巨头带领下暴涨7.77%，创历史最大单日涨幅之一；台湾加权指数同步飙升2.81%。日本日经225上涨1.80%，受益于日元维持弱势。港股恒生指数前一交易日收跌1.27%，但今日午盘已反弹逾1%，叠加南向资金近70亿港元疯狂扫货。A股早盘承压，上证综指跌0.37%，深成指跌1.0%，半导体产业链全线回调。WTI原油暴跌6.73%至87.57美元，反映市场对霍尔木兹海峡谈判取得突破的乐观预期。

指数表现 #

注：HSI及A股指数数据为前一交易日收盘，今日午盘恒生指数已反弹约1.1%，上证综指跌0.37%。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX surged 2.81% to 44,872.79, riding the coattails of the global semiconductor melt-up. The rally was broad-based among chip names, with TSMC and related supply-chain plays leading the advance. Foreign investors continued to pile into Taiwan’s tech complex, betting that AI infrastructure spending remains resilient despite macro headwinds. The Taiwan ETF (EWT) closed down 0.61% overnight in New York, but local shares ripped higher on the back of KOSPI’s explosive move and renewed optimism around memory pricing. USD/TWD edged lower to 31.39 (-0.17%), providing a modest tailwind for exporters.

台湾加权指数暴涨2.81%至44,872.79点，紧跟全球半导体狂潮。 芯片类股全面走强，台积电及供应链相关个股领涨。外资持续涌入台湾科技板块，押注AI基础设施支出在宏观逆风下仍具韧性。台湾ETF (EWT)隔夜在纽约收跌0.61%，但受KOSPI爆炸性行情及存储芯片定价乐观预期带动，本地个股大幅飙升。美元/台币微跌至31.39(-0.17%)，为出口商提供温和顺风。

韩国 #

KOSPI staged a historic 7.77% rally to 8,423.04, propelled by a confluence of AI chip euphoria and Hormuz de-escalation hopes. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which together account for nearly half of the index’s market cap, led the charge as foreign investors poured a net 3.1 trillion won into the market. The memory chip upcycle has fundamentally altered Korea’s macro risk profile: the semiconductor trade surplus now far exceeds the oil deficit, insulating the economy from energy shocks that historically crushed the KOSPI. Today’s WTI crude collapse of 6.73% amplifies this dynamic, effectively transferring wealth from oil producers to chip-intensive economies like Korea. The won strengthened to 1,502.68 per dollar (-0.67%), reducing imported inflation pressure and reinforcing the bullish feedback loop. The EWY ETF ripped 4.10% overnight, confirming global appetite for Korean exposure. Kosdaq, however, failed to participate, a reminder that this remains a narrowly concentrated mega-cap rally.

韩国KOSPI历史性暴涨7.77%至8,423.04点，由AI芯片狂热与霍尔木兹缓和预期共同推动。 三星电子与SK海力士合计占指数市值近半，在外资净买入3.1万亿韩元引领下冲锋陷阵。存储芯片上行周期从根本上改变了韩国的宏观风险画像：半导体贸易顺差现已远超石油逆差，使经济免受历史上重创KOSPI的能源冲击。今日WTI原油暴跌6.73%放大了这一效应，实质上完成了一次从石油生产国向韩国等芯片密集型经济体的财富转移。韩元走强至1,502.68兑1美元(-0.67%)，降低输入性通胀压力并强化看涨正反馈循环。EWY ETF隔夜大涨4.10%，确认全球资金对韩国资产的渴求。但Kosdaq未能跟进，提醒这仍是一场高度集中于超级大盘股的上涨。

Deep-dive: The KOSPI melt-up has now delivered over 75% gains from its 2025 year-end close of 4,214. This is not merely a valuation re-rating but a structural repricing of Korea’s role in the AI supply chain. At current levels, Samsung trades at a market cap above 1.5 quadrillion won, making it only the second Asian chipmaker after TSMC to cross the $1 trillion threshold. The risk is that foreign ownership concentration has reached extremes: any de-grossing event — a hawkish Fed pivot, a chip inventory correction, or a Hormuz deal collapse — could trigger violent reversals. Technical support now sits at the psychological 8,000 level, with the 20-day EMA rising fast near 7,850.

深度分析：KOSPI的暴涨已从2025年末的4,214点累计上涨逾75%。 这不仅仅是估值重估，更是对韩国在AI供应链中地位的结构性重新定价。以当前水平，三星电子市值突破1.5千万亿韩元，成为继台积电之后第二家跨越1万亿美元门槛的亚洲芯片制造商。风险在于外资持股集中度已达极端水平：任何减仓事件——美联储鹰派转向、芯片库存修正或霍尔木兹协议破裂——都可能引发剧烈反转。技术支撑位现位于8,000点心理关口，20日均线正快速上移至7,850点附近。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 climbed 1.80% to 66,334.28, with industrial exporters and semiconductor equipment names pacing the gains. USD/JPY held firm at 159.33 (+0.24%), maintaining the weak-yen environment that pads margins for Toyota, Sony, and other global champions. The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% this week, with Governor Ueda hinting at a potential hawkish pivot by June if wage-inflation dynamics hold. Tonight’s PCE data and the Fed’s trajectory will be critical: a dovish US print could trigger yen short-covering and pressure exporter stocks; conversely, sustained yen weakness would reinforce the earnings tailwind. The EWJ ETF edged up 0.44% overnight, reflecting measured foreign interest rather than euphoria.

日经225上涨1.80%至66,334.28点，工业出口商与半导体设备股领涨。 美元/日元持稳于159.33(+0.24%)，日元弱势环境持续为丰田、索尼等全球巨头的利润率提供缓冲。日央行本周维持利率在0.75%不变，植田和男行长暗示若工资-通胀动态持续，6月可能转向鹰派。今晚美国PCE数据及美联储政策路径至关重要：偏鸽的美国数据可能触发日元空头回补并施压出口股；反之，日元持续走弱将强化盈利顺风。EWJ ETF隔夜微涨0.44%，反映外资兴趣审慎而非狂热。

香港 #

HSI’s prior close of 25,006.16 reflected a 1.27% drop, but midday flows suggest a sharp rebound is underway. Southbound buying exploded to nearly HK$70 billion across Shanghai and Shenzhen channels, with the Hang Seng index trading up 1.1% at midday. The divergence between heavy mainland buying and the previous day’s weakness in offshore tech underscores a tactical rotation into beaten-down Hong Kong names. Property developers and insurers led the bounce, while chip-related plays remained under pressure following China’s semiconductor sector correction. The KWEB ETF fell 1.41% overnight, keeping a lid on tech sentiment. With the Xi-Trump summit having delivered only modest progress on trade, Hong Kong remains a proxy for US-China détente expectations.

恒生指数前收盘25,006.16点，下跌1.27%，但午间资金流向显示强劲反弹正在进行中。 南向资金通过沪、深通道合计爆买近700亿港元，恒生指数午间上涨1.1%。大陆资金大举买入与前一天离岸科技股弱势之间的分化，反映出资金向遭重创的港股名称进行战术性轮动的特征。地产开发商与保险股引领反弹，而芯片相关个股在中国半导体板块回调后持续承压。KWEB ETF隔夜下跌1.41%，抑制科技股情绪。随着习特会仅就贸易问题取得有限进展，香港仍是美中缓和预期的代理标的。

中国 #

Mainland markets were mixed, with the Shanghai Composite edging up 0.12% to 4,098.64 on prior close, though today’s morning session saw a 0.37% pullback. The Shenzhen Component outperformed with a 0.80% gain to 15,861.89, but intraday data shows it dropped 1.0% by midday. Sector divergence was extreme: power stocks extended their limit-up streak, retail and liquor names surged on duty-free policy hopes, while semiconductors, AI hardware, and rare-earth magnets faced heavy de-grossing. The Northbound flow data showed net buying at zero for both Shanghai and Shenzhen channels, indicating foreign investors are on the sidelines ahead of the weekend. Domestic funds rotated from tech into defensive consumer and utilities plays, a classic risk-off posture within the A-share ecosystem.

A股表现分化，上证综指前收盘微涨0.12%至4,098.64点，但今日早盘回落0.37%。 深证成指前收盘上涨0.80%至15,861.89点，但午间数据显示已下跌1.0%。板块分化极端：电力股延续涨停潮，零售与白酒股在政策利好预期下飙升，而半导体、AI硬件及稀土永磁面临大举减仓。北向资金沪、深通道净买入均为零，显示外资在周末前选择观望。国内资金从科技股轮动至防御性消费与公用事业板块，这是A股生态内典型的避险姿态。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

沪股通与深股通早盘净买入均为0，显示外资在周末及美国PCE数据发布前保持观望态度。沪股通上涨家数690只，下跌811只；深股通上涨611只，下跌1,087只。个股跌多涨少，反映外资对A股短期走势偏谨慎。

南向资金 #

港股通（沪）净买入318.70亿港元，港股通（深）净买入381.51亿港元，合计近700亿港元。这是近期最激进的南向资金扫货力度之一，主要流向恒生指数成分股中的地产、保险及消费板块。南向资金对港股的风险偏好与北向资金对A股的冷淡形成鲜明对比。

汇率与宏观 #

WTI原油暴跌6.73%是今日宏观最剧烈变动。霍尔木兹海峡谈判出现积极信号，特朗普5月23日称协议"已基本谈妥"，5月26日多哈谈判被形容为"总体积极"，市场预期海峡通航可能在短期内部分恢复，导致风险溢价快速出清。黄金上涨0.79%至4,535.80美元，与原油走势分化，反映避险需求从能源危机转向更广泛的滞胀担忧。美国10年期国债收益率下行2.26%至4.46%，与美联储可能转向鸽派的预期一致。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

伊朗战争/霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势（英文）： Diplomatic momentum has accelerated. On May 23, President Trump posted that “an agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization.” On May 26, senior Iranian officials returned from “intense” Doha negotiations described as “generally positive.” However, military friction persists: on May 25, CENTCOM conducted self-defense strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats near the strait. Iran has expanded its claimed operational zone to 200-300 miles and established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to regulate transit. Transit volume remains at roughly 38-42% of normal, but the directional trajectory is toward managed de-escalation.

最新态势（中文）： 外交动能加速。5月23日特朗普发文称协议"已基本谈妥，待最终敲定"。5月26日伊朗高级官员结束"激烈"的多哈谈判返回，谈判被形容为"总体积极"。但军事摩擦持续：5月25日美国中央司令部对霍尔木兹海峡附近的伊朗导弹发射阵地及船只实施自卫打击。伊朗已将声索作战区扩大至200-300英里，并设立波斯湾海峡管理局监管通航。通行量仍维持在日常水平的38-42%左右，但方向轨迹正朝着受控降级发展。

受影响板块：

关键时间节点：

• 6月初：预计美伊可能就霍尔木兹通航框架达成初步协议
• 6月中旬：OPEC+会议（阿联酋5月1日已退出OPEC，产量政策面临重构）
• 7月24日：美国USTR Section 301调查完成，可能公布新关税清单

专家研判：

• 相对受益方向：

  1. 航空运输：燃油成本每下降10%可为航空公司节省3-5%运营成本
  2. 化工/化肥：原料成本下降叠加春耕需求，毛利率有望修复
  3. 消费电子：芯片价格稳定+航运成本下降，供应链双重改善
  4. 电力公用事业：火力发电成本下降，火电企业盈利弹性最大
  5. 航空制造：波音、空客订单交付节奏恢复，供应链正常化

• 需要回避方向：

  1. 油气上游：WTI从$120回落至$87，上游资本开支计划面临下调
  2. 油轮航运：日均运价已从高位回落逾30%，VLCC费率持续承压
  3. 替代能源：能源安全叙事弱化，光伏、风电短期估值承压
  4. 军工板块：订单增速预期放缓， multiples面临压缩

• 情景分析（下一个关键节点：6月初美伊框架协议）：

  • 情景A（概率55%）：受控僵局延续 — 协议达成但伊朗保留对海峡的部分管理权，通行量恢复至60-70%。WTI稳定在$80-90区间，市场震荡消化。对股市影响中性偏多。
  • 情景B（概率30%）：外交突破 — 全面恢复通航，WTI快速回落至$75以下。航空、化工、制造业大幅受益，能源股承压。全球通胀预期下调，央行降息空间打开。
  • 情景C（概率15%）：谈判破裂 — 军事摩擦升级，海峡再次关闭。WTI反弹至$110+，全球滞胀风险加剧，央行陷入政策困境，风险资产普遍承压。

俄乌战争 #

最新态势（英文）： The conflict has entered a phase of strategic deep-rear attrition. Ukraine confirmed strikes on Russian military and energy infrastructure up to 1,000 kilometers inside Russian territory, targeting refueling hubs and naval logistics. On the sanctions front, the EU adopted its 20th sanctions package in April 2026, while the US temporarily lifted certain Russia oil transaction restrictions following the Hormuz closure — a pragmatic move that has since been partially reversed. The battlefield remains stalemated, with minimal direct impact on Asian markets beyond energy and fertilizer price channels.

最新态势（中文）： 冲突已进入战略纵深消耗阶段。乌克兰确认对俄罗斯境内纵深1,000公里的军事及能源基础设施实施打击，目标是补给枢纽与海军后勤。制裁方面，欧盟于2026年4月通过第20轮制裁方案，而美国因霍尔木兹关闭曾临时放宽部分俄罗斯石油交易限制——这一务实举措已部分逆转。战场维持僵持状态，对亚洲市场的直接影响有限，主要通过能源与化肥价格渠道间接传导。

受影响板块：

全球关税/贸易冲突 #

最新态势（英文）： The US-China tariff war remains structurally entrenched at 145% (US) and 125% (China), but the May 13 Xi-Trump summit in Beijing extended the October 2025 truce and teased modest agricultural purchase commitments. More consequentially, the Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling struck down IEEPA-based tariffs, forcing the administration to pivot to a 15% global “bridge tariff” under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 — a 150-day measure expiring in July 2026. The USTR has launched Section 301 investigations into 60+ economies, with completion targeted for July 24. The WTO has cut its 2026 global trade growth forecast to 1.8% from 2.5%.

最新态势（中文）： 美中关税战在结构上仍固化于145%（美方）和125%（中方）的水平，但5月13日的习特会延长了2025年10月的停战协议，并暗示了适度的农产品采购承诺。更具 consequential 的是，最高法院2月20日裁决推翻基于IEEPA的关税，迫使政府转向1974年贸易法第122条的15%全球"桥梁关税"——一项为期150天、将于2026年7月到期的措施。美国贸易代表办公室已对60多个经济体启动第301条调查，目标完成日期为7月24日。世贸组织将2026年全球贸易增长预期从2.5%下调至1.8%。

受影响板块：

关键主题 #

• 芯片超级周期：KOSPI的7.77%暴涨确认AI芯片需求仍处于抛物线阶段，韩国半导体贸易顺差已足以对冲能源赤字。
• 霍尔木兹风险溢价消退：WTI暴跌6.73%反映市场对6月初外交突破的押注，但38%的通行量现实提醒全面正常化仍需时日。
• 南向资金狂潮：近700亿港元单日净买入显示大陆资金对港股估值修复的极度饥渴，地产与保险成主要承接板块。
• A股半导体回调：数字芯片设计、半导体设备、AI算力方向全线走弱，资金向电力、白酒、零售等防御板块迁移。
• 日元159关口博弈：USD/JPY持稳159上方，日央行6月转向鹰派的风险正在累积，或触发亚洲汇市新一轮重估。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。