亚洲午盘 — 2026-05-25

市场概览 #

亚洲股市周一迎来今年以来最猛烈的单日风险情绪释放。周末美国总统特朗普宣布美伊和平协议已"大体谈成"，拟议方案包括60天停火延期、重开霍尔木兹海峡并允许伊朗自由售油，市场风险偏好瞬间逆转。台湾加权指数暴涨8.29%，日经225飙升7.89%，双双创下历史级单日涨幅；WTI原油则暴跌10.36%，回吐过去三周涨幅。韩国与香港因佛诞翌日休市，A股早盘延续升势，半导体设备板块成为全场焦点。

指数表现 #

注：KOSPI与恒生指数今日因佛诞翌日假期休市，表中为5月22日收盘数据。

台湾 #

The TAIEX surged 8.29% to close at 43,508.03, its largest single-session gain on record, as island-wide risk sentiment decompressed on the back of weekend Iran-deal optimism. The move was broad-based with semiconductor heavyweights leading the charge, reflecting both relief from geopolitical oil-risk premium unwinding and renewed confidence in the AI capex cycle. Foreign investors who had been de-risking into the long weekend were caught offsides, forcing a rapid re-grossing across the board. The magnitude of the rally pushed the index through multiple technical resistance clusters in a single session, with the next meaningful supply zone not appearing until the 44,500 area.

台湾加权指数暴涨8.29%至43,508.03点，创下有史以来最大单日涨幅。周末伊朗和谈取得突破性进展后，全岛风险偏好瞬间释放，半导体权重股领涨大盘。这既反映了地缘油价风险溢价回落带来的情绪修复，也表明市场对AI资本开支周期的信心重燃。长周末前减仓的外资被轧空，被迫在开盘后快速回补仓位。指数一举突破多个技术阻力区，下一个显著供给区间要到44,500点附近才会出现。

韩国 #

The Korean market was closed for the Buddha’s Birthday holiday, with the last traded KOSPI close at 7,847.71, up 4.73% from the previous session. Friday’s rally was already pricing in some degree of weekend geopolitical relief, though the scale of Monday’s moves in Tokyo and Taipei suggests Korean equities will face significant catch-up buying pressure when trading resumes Tuesday. The won, which had been under pressure throughout the Hormuz crisis, strengthened in offshore NDF markets on the Iran-deal headlines. Korea’s acute energy-import sensitivity makes it one of the largest beneficiaries of any sustained oil-price decline.

韩国股市因佛诞翌日假期休市，KOSPI最后收盘价为7,847.71点，较前一日上涨4.73%。上周五的涨势已部分计价了周末地缘局势缓和的预期，但东京和台北周一的暴涨幅度意味着韩国股市周二复市后将面临显著的补涨买盘压力。在霍尔木兹危机期间一直承压的韩元，在伊朗和谈消息传出后于离岸NDF市场走强。韩国作为能源进口高度敏感的经济体，是油价持续下跌的最大受益方之一。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 rocketed 7.89% to 65,325.85, building on Friday’s 2.68% advance as the twin tailwinds of yen stability and collapsing oil prices converged. Japan’s status as a near-total energy importer means every dollar decline in crude directly improves the current account and reduces imported inflation pressure on the BOJ. Technology and semiconductor names extended their outperformance, with the market repricing earnings upside for the AI infrastructure supply chain. The session’s breadth was exceptionally strong, with advancers swamping decliners by more than 10:1. The key risk to monitor is whether this momentum reversal triggers systematic profit-taking from CTAs and volatility-targeting funds that had built substantial short positions over the prior two weeks.

日经225暴涨7.89%至65,325.85点，在上周五上涨2.68%的基础上进一步加速，日元稳定与油价暴跌两大利好形成共振。日本作为几乎完全依赖能源进口的经济体，原油每下跌一美元都会直接改善经常账户并减轻日本央行面临的输入性通胀压力。科技与半导体板块延续超额表现，市场重新计价AI基础设施供应链的盈利上行空间。当日上涨家数与下跌家数之比超过10:1，广度极为强劲。需要警惕的是，此次动能反转可能触发商品交易顾问（CTA）及波动率目标基金在过去两周建立的大量空头仓位被轧空后的系统性获利了结。

香港 #

Hong Kong markets were closed for the Buddha’s Birthday holiday, with the last HSI close at 25,606.03, up 0.86% on Friday. The modest gain reflected cautious positioning ahead of the long weekend, with investors unwilling to commit sizeable directional exposure given the binary Iran-deal risk. Property and China internet names had shown relative weakness into the close, suggesting mainland sentiment was still guarded. Tuesday’s reopen will face the dual dynamics of tracking A-share semiconductor enthusiasm and the global oil-sector de-rating. Southbound flows on Friday showed net selling, indicating mainland investors used the pre-holiday session to trim Hong Kong exposure.

香港股市因佛诞翌日假期休市，恒生指数最后收盘价为25,606.03点，上周五上涨0.86%。这一温和涨幅反映了长周末前投资者的谨慎仓位，在地缘政治二元风险（伊朗和谈成或不成）面前，市场不愿建立大规模方向性敞口。地产和中概互联网板块在收盘前已显现相对弱势，表明内地资金情绪仍偏谨慎。周二复市将面临双重动力：既要跟随A股半导体板块的热情，又要消化全球能源板块的估值下调。周五南向资金录得净卖出，显示内地投资者在节前选择了减持港股。

中国 #

China’s A-share market opened firm with the Shanghai Composite up 0.57% at mid-day, building on Friday’s 0.87% close, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext added 0.87% and 1.14% respectively in the morning session. The standout theme was semiconductor equipment, with HuaXingYuanChuang (688001.SH) hitting the 20% daily limit and ShengMeiShanghai (688082.SH) surging over 15% to fresh all-time highs. The catalyst was domestic memory-chip leaders CXMT and YMTC accelerating their IPO processes, reinforcing order visibility for front-end equipment names. The PBOC injected CNY 600 billion via MLF operations, keeping liquidity conditions accommodative. Total morning turnover reached CNY 2.08 trillion, up nearly CNY 300 billion from the prior session, indicating improving risk appetite.

A股市场早盘高开高走，上证综指午盘涨0.57%，在上周五收涨0.87%的基础上继续向上；深证成指与创业板指早盘分别上涨0.87%和1.14%。全场焦点集中在半导体设备板块，华兴源创(688001.SH)触及20%涨停板，盛美上海(688082.SH)大涨逾15%创出历史新高。催化剂是国内存储芯片龙头长鑫科技与长江存储加速IPO进程，强化了前道设备厂商的订单可见度。央行今日开展6,000亿元MLF操作，保持流动性环境宽松。早盘两市成交额达2.08万亿元，较上一交易日放量近3,000亿元，显示风险偏好正在回升。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

今日北向交易因香港佛诞翌日假期暂停，沪股通与深股通均无成交。上一交易日（5月22日）北向资金未录得显著流向数据。

南向资金 #

今日南向交易同样因香港假期暂停。值得注意的是，5月22日数据显示港股通（沪）与港股通（深）分别录得净卖出约22.97亿港元和41.97亿港元，表明内地投资者在长周末前选择减持港股仓位，避险情绪仍存。

汇率与宏观 #

WTI原油暴跌10.36%是今日全球市场最剧烈的宏观信号。周末特朗普宣布美伊和平协议已"大体谈成"，拟议内容包括60天停火延期、重开霍尔木兹海峡、允许伊朗自由售油，并在停火期间就核计划展开谈判。该消息完全扭转了此前因海峡封锁而累积的风险溢价。美元/日元在158.90附近持稳，未因油价暴跌而出现剧烈波动，显示市场对日本央行6月加息的预期已部分计价。美元指数小幅走弱至99.05，反映风险情绪回暖对避险货币需求的压制。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势：

President Trump announced Saturday that a peace agreement with Iran has been “largely negotiated,” subject to finalization among the U.S., Iran, and regional stakeholders. Axios cited U.S. officials saying the proposed deal includes a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, restoration of Iran’s oil-export rights, and parallel negotiations on curbing Iran’s nuclear program. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington is prepared to enter “very serious talks” on the nuclear file if Tehran reopens the strait. However, complications remain: Iran’s Supreme Leader has ordered that enriched uranium reserves stay inside Iran, and Tehran is pushing a formalized toll system for Hormuz transit that Trump has flatly rejected.

美国总统特朗普周六宣布，与伊朗的和平协议已"大体谈成"，待美国、伊朗及地区相关方最终敲定。据Axios引述美国官员，拟议方案包括60天停火延期、重开霍尔木兹海峡、恢复伊朗石油出口权，并就限制核计划展开平行谈判。国务卿卢比奥表示，若德黑兰重开海峡，华盛顿准备就核问题展开"非常严肃的谈判"。但障碍依然存在：伊朗最高领袖已下令浓缩铀储备须留在伊朗境内，且德黑兰正推动建立霍尔木兹通航收费机制，遭到特朗普断然拒绝。

受影响板块分析：

关键时间节点：

• 5月下旬-6月初：美伊双方就最终协议文本进行闭门谈判，铀库存处置是核心分歧
• 6月15-17日：日本央行议息会议，若和谈顺利则加息概率上升
• 6月底：60天停火首期到期，需观察双方是否续约或局势反弹

专家研判：

• 相对受益方向： 航空（燃油成本每降$5/桶，行业季度利润增厚约120-150亿人民币）、化工（石脑油-乙烯价差修复）、半导体设备（国产替代+AI双重驱动）、火电（煤炭+油价双降）、航运（绕行成本消除）。

• 需要回避方向： 石油开采（WTI若持续低于$90，页岩油企业自由现金流将转负）、油服设备（全球上游资本开支预期下调）、黄金（避险需求退潮，$4,500以上面临获利回吐）、国防军工（和谈降低地区冲突预期）。

• 情景分析：

  • 乐观情景（概率35%）：未来两周正式签署协议，霍尔木兹完全恢复正常通航，WTI回落至$85-90区间。日经/台股维持高位，新兴市场风险资产全面重估。
  • 基准情景（概率45%）：协议签署但执行磕磕绊绊，海峡通航量逐步恢复至70-80%，WTI在$95-105区间震荡。市场波动率下降但不确定性未完全消除。
  • 悲观情景（概率20%）：铀库存分歧无法弥合，谈判破裂，海峡再次封锁。WTI反弹至$110以上，亚洲股市回吐今日涨幅，日元因避险需求急升。

2. 俄乌战争 #

最新态势：

The Russia-Ukraine war continues along a grinding stalemate with no major territorial shifts. The General Staff of Ukraine reported 253 combat engagements on May 22, with Russian forces conducting 95 airstrikes and deploying over 9,600 kamikaze drones. The frontline has remained largely static around Pokrovsk and Kupiansk. From a market perspective, the conflict has been largely priced out of Asian equity valuations since early 2025, with energy and agricultural commodity supply chains having adapted to the new normal.

俄乌战争仍在消耗战僵局中持续，战线无重大变动。乌克兰总参谋部报告5月22日录得253次战斗接触，俄军实施95次空袭并部署逾9,600架自杀式无人机。波克罗夫斯克和库皮扬斯克附近战线基本冻结。从市场角度看，自2025年初以来，亚洲股市已大体消化了该冲突的影响，能源与农产品供应链已适应新常态。

受影响板块： 欧洲军费开支相关（莱茵金属、BAE Systems）维持多头趋势，但亚洲直接暴露有限；俄罗斯铝业和镍出口受限继续支撑中国铝业(601600.SH)等冶炼企业溢价。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

最新态势：

Vice Premier He Lifeng’s address at the APEC Trade Ministers’ meeting in Suzhou on May 23 emphasized China’s willingness to support WTO reform and pragmatically advance regional economic integration. The statement offered no breakthrough on bilateral U.S.-China tariff disputes but signaled continued engagement rather than escalation. The market impact of tariffs has taken a backseat to geopolitical oil risk in recent weeks, though any resolution on Hormuz could refocus attention on the structural trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

国务院副总理何立峰5月23日在苏州APEC贸易部长会议上致辞，强调中国愿支持世贸组织改革、务实推进区域经济一体化。该表态未在双边关税争端上取得突破，但释放了继续接触而非升级的信号。近几周关税问题对市场的影响已让位于地缘石油风险，但若霍尔木兹局势缓和，市场注意力可能重新聚焦于华盛顿与北京之间的结构性贸易紧张。

关键主题 #

• 伊朗和谈突破：特朗普宣布协议"大体谈成"，霍尔木兹重开预期引爆全球风险资产，WTI暴跌逾10%。铀库存处置与收费机制仍是潜在绊脚石。
• 亚洲半导体狂潮：台股、日经及A股半导体设备板块同步飙升，AI基础设施资本开支周期与国产替代叙事形成双击。
• 油价风险溢价急速出清：从$113高点回落至$96仅用两周，航空公司与化工企业迎来成本端大幅松绑。
• 日韩港假期错配：KOSPI与恒生今日休市，明日复市将面临强烈的补涨/补跌动力，波动率可能放大。
• 中国流动性维稳：央行6,000亿MLF操作对冲到期压力，半导体IPO加速为设备板块注入订单确定性。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。