亚洲午盘 — 2026-05-18

市场概览 #

亚洲股市周一午盘遭遇全面抛售，地缘风险与货币政策双重压力将区域基准指数推入深度调整区间。伊朗战争进入第12周，霍尔木兹海峡通航前景在周末再度恶化；与此同时，Kevin Warsh于5月15日正式接任美联储主席，其鹰派立场与通胀数据叠加，推动10年期美债收益率飙升至4.59%，美元指数走强至99.31。台湾、韩国、日本三大市场跌幅均超2%，韩国综合指数更重挫3.47%领跌区域。原油在供给中断担忧下反弹至$103.22，黄金则大跌3.15%至$4,549.50，显示市场正从"避险"转向"滞胀定价"。

指数表现 #

注：恒生指数、沪深300、上证综指数据截至5月15日收盘。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s Taiex shed 2.35% to 40,913.51, giving back nearly 1,000 points in a single session. The sell-off was broad-based, with the EWT ETF closing down 4.40% in U.S. trading on Friday, foreshadowing today’s weakness. TSMC, the market’s heavyweight, faced de-risking pressure as investors trimmed exposure ahead of Nvidia’s earnings on May 20. The semiconductor supply chain, which has been the primary engine of Taiex’s 20%+ rally over the past year, is now caught between AI demand optimism and geopolitical de-grossing. The USD/TWD edged up 0.87% to 31.62, reflecting relative resilience in the currency compared to regional peers, though exporters are beginning to feel margin compression from the stronger dollar.

台湾加权指数今日重挫2.35%，报40,913.51点，单日回吐近1,000点。跌势全面扩散，EWT ETF上周五在美国市场已大跌4.40%，提前预示了今日弱势。台积电作为大盘权重股，在英伟达5月20日财报前遭遇资金减仓。过去一年来推动台股上涨逾20%的半导体供应链，此刻正夹在对AI需求的乐观预期与地缘政治"去风险化"之间。美元/台币升至31.62，涨幅0.87%，在区域货币中相对抗跌，但出口商已面临强势美元带来的利润率压缩压力。

韩国 #

The KOSPI tumbled 3.47% to 7,551.09, the steepest regional decline and a sharp reversal from its all-time intraday high of 8,046.78 reached just last week. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the twin pillars of Korea’s AI trade, led the collapse as global tech funds executed aggressive de-grossing. The EWY ETF plunged 6.12% in New York on Friday, the worst single-day drop in months, signaling that foreign institutional selling is accelerating. The KRW weakened 1.95% against the dollar to 1,503.26, breaking through the psychologically critical 1,500 level. Korea faces a uniquely precarious position: as a net energy importer with an export-dependent economy, the combination of $103 oil and a weaker currency creates a severe terms-of-trade shock. The market’s extreme sensitivity to both AI sentiment and energy costs explains the outsized decline.

韩国综合指数暴跌3.47%，报7,551.09点，为区域最深跌幅，与上周触及的8,046.78点历史盘中高位形成戏剧性反转。三星电子与SK海力士——韩国AI交易的双支柱——领跌大盘，全球科技基金正执行激进的"去风险"操作。EWY ETF上周五在纽约暴跌6.12%，创数月来最差单日表现，显示外资机构抛售正在加速。韩元兑美元贬值1.95%至1,503.26，突破关键心理关口1,500。韩国的处境尤为脆弱：作为能源进口国与出口导向型经济体，$103油价叠加货币贬值正在造成严重贸易条件冲击。市场对AI情绪与能源成本的双重极端敏感，解释了其超额跌幅。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 fell 2.73% to 61,031.39, extending its pullback from the record high above 63,000 set earlier this month. SoftBank Group, which had soared 18% in a single session last week on AI enthusiasm, gave back a significant portion of those gains as momentum reversed. Tokyo Electron and Advantest, the chip equipment makers that have driven Japan’s 70% annual rally, also faced heavy profit-taking. The USD/JPY climbed 1.12% to 158.99, approaching the 160 intervention zone that triggered BOJ action in 2024. With Warsh taking the Fed helm and oil prices elevated, the BOJ faces a tightening dilemma: higher U.S. yields pressure the yen, but domestic growth remains fragile and energy imports are draining the current account. The market is pricing in a policy response if 160 breaks.

日经225指数下跌2.73%，报61,031.39点，延续自本月初63,000点上方历史高位回落的走势。软银集团上周曾因AI热潮单日暴涨18%，今日随着动量反转回吐了大部分涨幅。东京电子与爱德万测试等推动日本股市年涨70%的芯片设备股也遭遇沉重获利了结。美元/日元上涨1.12%至158.99，逼近2024年曾触发日本央行干预的160关口。随着Warsh执掌美联储且油价高企，日本央行面临紧缩困境：美债收益率上行施压日元，但国内增长依然脆弱，能源进口正在侵蚀经常账户。市场已定价若160失守将有政策回应。

香港 #

The Hang Seng declined 1.62% to 25,962.73 (last Friday’s close), with sentiment further deteriorating in today’s session. China Internet names through the KWEB ETF plunged 3.53% on Friday in the U.S., reflecting renewed concerns about U.S.-China trade relations despite Trump’s Beijing summit wrapping up on May 15. Analysts at Capital Economics cautioned that headline deals from the summit should be viewed with “a healthy degree of scepticism,” noting that promised investments from Trump’s 2017 China visit largely failed to materialize. Southbound flows showed mixed signals: the Shanghai Connect channel bought HK$1.75 billion, while the Shenzhen Connect sold HK$1.27 billion, for a modest net inflow of roughly HK$480 million. Property and financial sectors remained under pressure as the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield above 5.0% creates a funding cost headwind for Hong Kong’s rate-sensitive sectors.

恒生指数跌1.62%报25,962.73点（上周五收盘），今日盘中情绪进一步恶化。美股交易的KWEB ETF上周五暴跌3.53%，反映尽管特朗普5月15日北京峰会落幕，市场对中美贸易关系的担忧重燃。Capital Economics分析师警告，峰会 headline 协议应持"高度怀疑态度"，指出特朗普2017年访华承诺的投资大多未能兑现。南向资金信号混杂：沪股通净买入17.5亿港元，深股通净卖出12.7亿港元，整体仅小幅净流入约4.8亿港元。地产与金融板块持续承压，因美国30年期国债收益率突破5.0%对香港利率敏感板块构成融资成本压力。

中国 #

Mainland markets traded defensively, with the Shanghai Composite down 1.02% at 4,135.39 and the CSI 300 off 1.12% at 4,859.59 (both Friday closes). In today’s midday session, the Shanghai index showed relative resilience, edging down approximately 0.36% with turnover contracting to 2.28 trillion yuan, indicating that selling pressure is moderating after two consecutive days of heavy liquidation. Semiconductor equipment names bucked the weakness, with Naura Technology surging toward its all-time high after SMIC guided Q2 revenue growth of 14-16% quarter-over-quarter. The hydrogen fluoride segment also caught bids on news that Korean chipmakers will begin sourcing from China this month at prices 40% above year-start levels. However, the broader market remains vulnerable to the triple headwind of high oil prices, Fed hawkishness, and domestic leverage concerns—margin financing balances hit a record 2.8 trillion yuan on May 12, raising deleveraging risks.

A股整体偏弱，上证综指跌1.02%报4,135.39点，沪深300跌1.12%报4,859.59点（均为上周五收盘）。今日午盘沪指展现相对韧性，仅微跌约0.36%，成交额缩至2.28万亿元，显示连续两日大幅出清后抛压正在缓解。半导体设备股逆势走强，中芯国际给出二季度营收环比增长14%-16%的指引后，北方华创大涨并逼近历史新高。无水氢氟酸板块也因韩国芯片厂商本月起将自中国采购、价格较年初上涨约40%的消息而受追捧。然而，大盘仍面临三重逆风：高油价、美联储鹰派立场及国内杠杆隐忧——5月12日融资余额首次达到2.8万亿元历史高位，降杠杆风险正在累积。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

沪股通与深股通北向净买入均显示为0，数据或因节假日后结算延迟而暂未更新。基于上周五数据，外资呈现观望状态，缺乏明确方向。

南向资金 #

港股通（沪）净买入17.50亿港元，港股通（深）净卖出12.73亿港元，合计小幅净流入约4.77亿港元。南向资金在恒指回调中保持温和流入，显示内地资金对港股低估值仍有一定兴趣，但力度明显弱于此前活跃时期。

汇率与宏观 #

注：美国10年期国债收益率数据截至5月16日。

宏观要点：

• WTI原油在供给中断担忧下反弹至$103.22，霍尔木兹海峡通航前景周末再度恶化。美国财长贝森特此前表示预计六个月内油价将下滑，但当前时间窗口正在收窄。
• 黄金大跌3.15%至$4,549.50，与原油走势背离，显示市场定价逻辑从"纯避险"转向"滞胀+美元走强"。
• 美元指数升至99.31，10年期美债收益率跳升18个基点至4.59%，资金正在重新定价美联储政策路径——CME FedWatch显示市场已出现年内加息1-3次的预期。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

Latest developments: The Iran war entered its 12th week with no durable ceasefire in sight. Over the weekend, U.S.-Iran talks on a permanent settlement stalled again, and maritime incidents flared: a ship was seized off the UAE and a cargo vessel attacked near Oman. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to normal commercial traffic despite Iran’s sporadic gestures of opening “designated safe routes.” WTI crude jumped back above $100, with Brent hovering near $105-107. U.S. April PPI surged 6% YoY, with energy accounting for roughly three-quarters of goods price increases—gasoline prices alone spiked 15.6%.

最新态势： 伊朗战争进入第12周，仍无持久停火迹象。周末期间，美伊永久停火谈判再度陷入僵局，海上事件频发：UAE附近一艘船只被扣押，阿曼附近一艘货船遇袭。尽管伊朗 sporadic 表示开放"指定安全航线"，霍尔木兹海峡对正常商业航运仍基本关闭。WTI原油跳回$100上方，布伦特维持在$105-107区间。美国4月PPI同比飙升6%，能源价格约占商品涨价幅度的四分之三——仅汽油价格就跳涨15.6%。

关键时间节点：

• 5月20日： 英伟达财报——若AI资本开支指引低于预期，可能触发科技股进一步 de-grossing
• 6月16-17日： Kevin Warsh 主持首次FOMC会议——政策声明措辞是否转向加息偏备受关注
• 6月底： 美国阵亡将士纪念日窗口——白宫面临缓解油价压力的政治 deadline

专家研判：

• 相对受益方向： ①上游油气（中国海油、中石油）——高油价直接兑现业绩；②油运（中远海能）——绕行逻辑持续；③国防军工——地缘不确定性提升军费预期；④煤炭——能源替代需求；⑤农药/化肥——粮食安全+价格传导。
• 需要回避方向： ①航空——燃油成本冲击盈利；②消费零售（可选消费）——高油价挤压可支配收入；③高杠杆地产——融资成本随美债收益率上行；④黄金 miners——美元与收益率双杀。
• 情景分析（6月FOMC前）：
  • 情景A（概率35%）： 霍尔木兹部分通航+油价回落至$90以下 → 市场风险偏好修复，科技股反弹，Fed维持不降息但推迟加息信号
  • 情景B（概率45%）： 僵局持续+油价维持$100-110 → 滞胀交易主导，能源与价值股跑赢，成长股承压，Fed释放加息信号
  • 情景C（概率20%）： 军事升级+海峡全面关闭 → 油价冲$120+，全球股市大幅回调，黄金重新走强，Fed被迫转向紧缩

2. 俄乌战争 #

冲突进入第三年，制裁格局基本固化。当前市场关注点已从战争本身转向能源价格的外溢效应——伊朗战争叠加俄乌制裁，使全球能源供给弹性降至历史低位。欧洲军费开支持续攀升，利好部分军工与防务承包商，但对亚洲市场直接影响有限。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

特朗普5月15日结束北京峰会，但市场反应冷淡。Capital Economics指出2017年峰会承诺的投资大多未能兑现。美印达成18%关税协议的消息曾短暂提振印度IT外包板块，但整体贸易环境仍偏紧。投资者正在重新评估"关税峰值已过"的假设。

关键主题 #

• 伊朗僵局重燃： 周末海上袭击事件与和谈停滞重新点燃供给担忧，油价从$95区间跳回$103，成为今日亚洲抛售的最直接催化剂。
• Fed鹰派换帅落地： Kevin Warsh正式接掌美联储，其"优先将通胀压回2%“的立场与4月PPI +6%的数据形成共振，10Y收益率飙升至4.59%，全球风险资产重定价。
• 韩元破1500： 韩元兑美元跌破关键心理关口，韩国股市受能源进口冲击与外资流出双重打压，KOSPI领跌区域。
• AI财报前 de-grossing： 英伟达5月20日财报前，全球科技基金普遍减仓，台积电、三星、SK海力士均遭抛售，半导体供应链成重灾区。
• A股缩量企稳： 沪指午盘跌0.36%显著强于外围，成交额缩至2.28万亿，半导体设备与氟化工逆势活跃，显示内部资金正在寻找结构性机会。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。