亚洲午盘 — 2026-05-13

市场概览 #

Asian equities traded in sharply divergent fashion at midday Wednesday. South Korea’s KOSPI staged a dramatic rebound from opening losses exceeding 3% to surge 5.69%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.45% and Taiwan’s TAIEX shed 1.55% on U.S. chip weakness. Crude oil commanded center stage as WTI breached $100/barrel with a 5.82% intraday spike, reflecting a teetering U.S.-Iran ceasefire. President Trump’s arrival in Beijing for a state visit has placed Sino-U.S. diplomacy at the forefront of global risk sentiment.

亚洲股市周三午盘走势极度分化。韩国KOSPI在经历开盘暴跌逾3%后上演惊天大逆转，午盘大涨5.69%；日本日经225微幅收高0.45%；台湾加权指数受美股芯片股暴跌拖累下跌1.55%。原油市场成为最大焦点——WTI突破100美元大关，日内暴涨5.82%，美伊停火协议命悬一线。美国总统特朗普今日抵达北京开启国事访问，全球目光聚焦中美元首能否就霍尔木兹海峡危机达成突破。

指数表现 #

¹ HSI、CSI 300、上证综指数据为前一交易日(5月12日)收盘。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX slid 1.55% to 41,281.99, dragged lower by overnight weakness in U.S. semiconductor shares after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged over 3% and Qualcomm cratered more than 11% on hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation. TSMC and MediaTek faced aggressive profit-taking as foreign investors reduced exposure ahead of President Trump’s Beijing visit, where semiconductor supply-chain security and rare-earth leverage are expected to dominate discussions. The EWT Taiwan ETF closed down 3.48% in New York, signaling continued foreign de-risking.

台湾加权指数下跌1.55%至41,281.99点，受隔夜美股半导体股暴跌拖累——费城半导体指数重挫逾3%，高通因美国通胀数据滚烫崩跌超11%。台积电与联发科遭遇外资积极获利了结，投资者在特朗普访华前削减敞口，此次访问预计将以半导体供应链安全与稀土杠杆为核心议题。EWT台湾ETF在纽约收跌3.48%，显示外资持续去风险。

韩国 #

South Korea’s KOSPI delivered one of the most violent intraday reversals in its history, surging 5.69% to 7,804.93 after opening down more than 3% with Samsung Electronics plunging over 5%. The swing exceeded 8 percentage points as domestic retail investors and local institutions aggressively bought the dip, absorbing foreign net selling of roughly 2.7 trillion won. Samsung Electronics reversed from a 6.1% intraday loss to close higher, while SK Hynix rallied sharply from early lows. The rebound partially reflected a digestion of panic over the presidential office’s “national dividend” proposal—suggesting redistribution of AI windfall profits—though policy uncertainty remains acute. Hyundai Motor and Kia also contributed to the broad recovery.

韩国KOSPI上演了史上最为剧烈的日内逆转之一，开盘跌超3%、三星电子暴跌逾5%后，收盘暴涨5.69%至7,804.93点。日内振幅超过8个百分点——韩国散户与本土机构疯狂抄底，吸纳了外资约2.7万亿韩元的净卖出。三星电子从-6.1%的日内深渊逆转收涨，SK海力士从早盘低点大幅拉升。反弹部分反映了对总统府"国民分红"构想——主张将AI超额利润返还社会——所引发恐慌的消化，但政策不确定性依然尖锐。现代汽车与起亚亦为广泛反弹做出贡献。

The KOSPI’s V-shaped rebound masks a deteriorating fundamental backdrop. The won plunged 3.46% against the dollar to 1,494.38, amplifying imported inflation at a time when Brent crude hovers near $107. Foreign investors have now dumped a cumulative 20.53 trillion won over four consecutive sessions, indicating that leveraged retail flows—often momentum-chasing—are the primary support under the market. With Samsung Electronics’ labor union threatening the largest strike in corporate history and the U.S.-China summit this week potentially impacting chip export licenses, the path remains treacherous. Technical support near 7,500 was tested and held, but a sustained foreign exodus would expose the fragility of this rally.

KOSPI的V型反弹掩盖了正在恶化的基本面。韩元兑美元暴跌3.46%至1,494.38，在布伦特原油逼近107美元之际加剧了输入性通胀。外资已连续四个交易日累计净卖出20.53万亿韩元，表明杠杆化的散户资金流——往往追涨杀跌——才是市场的主要支撑。三星电子工会正威胁公司史上最大规模罢工，且本周中美峰会可能影响芯片出口许可，前路依然凶险。7,500点附近的技术支撑经受了考验且暂时守住，但若外资持续出逃，本轮反弹的脆弱性将暴露无遗。

日本 #

Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.45% to 63,118.52, recovering from early losses as exporters and domestic-oriented names found buyers. The Topix outperformed with a 1% gain. SoftBank Group dropped over 2% at the open, tracking the overnight rout in U.S. tech shares, while Sony and semiconductor equipment makers attracted dip buyers on expectations of sustained AI capital expenditure by global hyperscalers. The yen’s depreciation to 157.70 against the dollar provided a tailwind for automakers and machinery exporters, though the pace of weakness is raising discomfort among policymakers wary of imported inflation.

日本日经225指数微涨0.45%至63,118.52点，早盘低开后出口股与内需型个股寻获买家支撑。东证指数涨1%，表现优于日经。软银集团开盘跌超2%，追随隔夜美股科技股抛售，而索尼与半导体设备商则因全球超大规模企业AI资本开支预期持续而吸引抄底资金。日元兑美元贬值至157.70，为汽车与机械出口商带来顺风，但贬值速度已引起警惕输入性通胀的政策制定者不安。

香港 #

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed 0.22% lower at 26,347.91 in the previous session, with tech and property names leading declines. The Hang Seng Tech Index underperformed as Alibaba and Tencent faced persistent foreign fund outflows amid renewed U.S.-China audit tensions. Southbound flows turned negative through the Shenzhen channel, with aggregate net outflows across both Stock Connect programs. The market is now awaiting directional cues from President Trump’s Beijing visit and any fresh mainland policy signals on property sector stabilization.

香港恒生指数前日收盘下跌0.22%至26,347.91点，科技与地产板块领跌。恒生科技指数跑输大盘，阿里巴巴与腾讯因中美审计审查紧张关系重燃而面临外资持续流出。港股通南向资金经深圳渠道转为净流出。市场正等待特朗普北京之行释放的方向性信号，以及内地监管层关于房地产稳市的新政策表态。

中国 #

Mainland China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite ended virtually flat on Tuesday at 4,948.05 (-0.08%) and 4,214.49 (-0.25%) respectively, as investors balanced AI hardware optimism against macro headwinds from elevated oil prices and persistent tariffs. The optical communication sector cooled after a strong run, while lithium miners rallied on overseas order momentum. With real-time northbound flow data no longer published, market participants are partially blind to foreign positioning. The Trump-Xi summit dominates near-term catalysts, with agricultural purchases and Boeing orders expected alongside discussions on rare-earth export controls.

中国内地沪深300与上证综指周二近乎收平，分别报4,948.05点(-0.08%)和4,214.49点(-0.25%)，投资者在AI硬件乐观情绪与油价高企及关税持续的宏观逆风之间权衡。光通信板块在前期大涨后降温，锂矿股则因海外订单动能而反弹。随着北向资金实时数据停止披露，市场参与者对外资动向的判断部分处于盲区。中美元首峰会是近期主导性催化剂，农产品采购与波音订单预计将与稀土出口管制议题一并讨论。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

Northbound flows through the Shanghai and Shenzhen Connect programs registered zero net buying following the cessation of real-time disclosure. Underlying breadth was mixed, with 739 advancers versus 741 decliners on the Shanghai link and 998 advancers versus 675 decliners on the Shenzhen link. Market participants are now relying on end-of-day aggregate figures, reducing intraday visibility into foreign positioning.

沪股通与深股通在停止实时披露后显示净买入为0。底层个股涨跌互现，沪股通上涨739只、下跌741只；深股通上涨998只、下跌675只。市场参与者目前只能依赖日终汇总数据，外资动向的日内可见度大幅下降。

南向资金 #

Southbound flows turned negative overall. The Shanghai channel recorded a net inflow of HK$1.17 billion, while the Shenzhen channel saw a net outflow of HK$3.03 billion, yielding a combined outflow of approximately HK$1.86 billion. The divergence suggests mainland investors are selectively taking profits in Hong Kong tech names ahead of the Trump-Xi summit.

港股通南向资金整体转为净流出。港股通(沪)净买入11.68亿港元，港股通(深)净卖出30.31亿港元，两大通道合计净流出约18.63亿港元。这种分化表明内地投资者在特朗普会晤前对港股科技股进行选择性获利了结。

汇率与宏观 #

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire established on April 8 is on “massive life support,” according to President Trump, after the U.S. rejected Iran’s counterproposal on May 11-12 demanding an end to hostilities and sanctions relief. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut to commercial tankers, with Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warning that global oil markets are losing approximately 100 million barrels per week and normalization may not occur until 2027. President Trump arrived in Beijing on May 13 seeking China’s leverage over Tehran to push for a comprehensive ceasefire. Britain has dispatched fighter jets and warships to a multinational escort mission in the Gulf.

美伊双方于4月8日达成的停火协议据特朗普称正处于"大规模生命维持"状态。美方在5月11-12日拒绝了伊朗要求全面停火并解除制裁的反提案。霍尔木兹海峡对商业油轮基本仍处于关闭状态，沙特阿美CEO阿明·纳赛尔警告全球油市每周损失约1亿桶供应，正常化可能要等到2027年。特朗普于5月13日抵达北京，寻求借中国对德黑兰的影响力推动全面停火。英国已向海湾多国护航行动派遣战机与军舰。

关键时间节点： 5月15日（特朗普访华结束）、美伊谈判新截止日期（待宣布）

专家研判：

• 相对受益方向： 能源ETF(XLE)、油服(OII)、替代能源(ENPH)、黄金矿业(NEM)、国防(LMT)
• 需要回避方向： 航空(IYT)、快递(UPS)、消费品(PG，成本传导滞后)、高耗能制造
• 情景分析：
  • 乐观(30%)： 中国成功斡旋，停火延长，霍尔木兹部分恢复通航，油价回落至85美元
  • 基准(50%)： 外交僵局持续，海峡间歇性通航，油价维持95-110美元区间
  • 悲观(20%)： 停火破裂，军事冲突升级，伊朗威胁 Gulf 基础设施，油价突破120美元

2. 俄乌战争 #

The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a secondary headline for Asian markets relative to the Middle East crisis. European defense spending commitments continue to rise, with EU member states accelerating ammunition procurement. Energy sanctions on Russian crude remain intact, though some Asian buyers have resumed discounted purchases via shadow fleet tankers. The conflict’s direct market impact has been largely priced in, but any escalation affecting Black Sea grain shipments would reignite food inflation concerns across Asia.

相对于中东危机，俄乌冲突对亚洲市场的即时冲击已退居次要位置。欧洲防务开支承诺持续上升，欧盟成员国加速弹药采购。对俄原油能源制裁依然生效，但部分亚洲买家已通过影子船队恢复折价采购。冲突的直接市场影响已基本被定价，但若升级波及黑海粮食运输，将重新点燃亚洲的食品通胀担忧。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

The U.S. Court of Appeals paused a lower-court ruling against President Trump’s 10% global tariff, allowing duties to remain in effect. U.S.-China trade consultations took place in Seoul on May 12-13, with Vice Premier He Lifeng leading the Chinese delegation. Trump’s Beijing visit (May 13-15) is expected to cover agricultural purchases, Boeing deliveries, and rare-earth export controls. China has stabilized its rare-earth leverage ahead of the summit, while a recent Supreme Court ruling has somewhat eroded U.S. tariff credibility.

美国上诉法院暂停了地方法院针对特朗普10%全球关税的反对判决，关税将继续征收。中美经贸磋商于5月12-13日在韩国举行，中方由何立峰副总理率团。特朗普北京之行(5月13-15日)预计涵盖农产品采购、波音交付及稀土出口管制议题。中方在峰会前已稳固稀土杠杆，而近期最高法院的一项裁决一定程度上削弱了美国关税政策的可信度。

关键时间节点： 5月15日（特朗普访华结束）、中美联合声明（如有）

关键主题 #

• 韩国股市史诗级逆转： KOSPI日内振幅超8%，散户杠杆抄底对抗外资大逃亡，政策不确定性高企
• 原油重返三位数： WTI突破100美元，霍尔木兹停火命悬一线，美国4月CPI 3.8%创三年新高
• 特朗普访华： 全球风险资产等待中美元首会晤结果，稀土与农业采购成核心筹码
• 三星罢工阴影： 工会威胁史上最大规模停工，AI暴利分配争议加剧韩国政策不确定性
• 美联储降息预期急冻： 市场定价美联储年内加息概率跳升至逾30%，短端美债收益率飙升

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。