亚洲午盘 — 2026-05-07

市场概览 #

亚洲市场周四迎来史诗级普涨。隔夜 Axios 报道白宫接近与伊朗达成一页备忘录结束战争，特朗普随后确认若伊朗接受条件将终止 “Epic Fury” 军事行动并解除霍尔木兹海峡封锁，WTI 原油暴跌逾 10% 至 $95.72。与此同时，AMD、SMCI 等 AI 硬件股发布强劲指引后美股再创纪录，风险情绪全面点燃。韩国 KOSPI 暴涨 11.19% 领跑全亚洲，台湾加权指数首破 42000 点大关，日经 225 亦首次站上 62000 点创历史新高。

指数表现 #

注：沪深300及上证综指数据为2026-05-06收盘；港股、日韩、台股数据为2026-05-07盘中/最新。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX surged 7.98% to close at a record 42,032.87, marking the first time the index has ever breached the 42,000 level. The rally was driven almost entirely by semiconductor heavyweights, with TSMC (2330.TW) jumping 3.1% and carrying the index given its ~40% weighting. Delta Electronics (2308.TW) soared 6.3%, Unimicron (3037.TW) gained 4.8%, and ASE Technology (3711.TW) rose 4.4%. The electronics sector alone added 2.6%. The market is pricing in sustained AI capex demand through 2026, with TSMC’s full-year revenue guided toward NT$5 trillion and its HBM/advanced packaging capacity fully subscribed.

台股加权指数暴涨 7.98% 至 42,032.87 点，史上首次突破 42000 点大关。涨势几乎完全由半导体权重个股驱动：台积电(2330.TW)大涨 3.1%，凭借约 40% 的指数权重直接拉动大盘；台达电子(2308.TW)飙升 6.3%，欣兴电子(3037.TW)涨 4.8%，日月光控股(3711.TW)涨 4.4%。电子类股整体上涨 2.6%。市场正在定价 2026 年全年 AI 资本开支需求，台积电全年营收目标逼近 5 万亿新台币，HBM 及先进封装产能已全数被客户包下。

韩国 #

South Korea’s KOSPI delivered one of the most explosive single-day rallies in its history, closing up 11.19% at 7,384.23. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) surged over 14% and SK Hynix (000660.KS) jumped more than 10%, both hitting fresh all-time highs. The two chip giants now command roughly 43% of the KOSPI’s total market cap, meaning every 1% move in the pair translates into ~0.43% index impact. Samsung’s Q1 Device Solutions division reported operating profit surging 48x year-on-year on AI datacenter orders, and the company disclosed that its entire 2026 HBM4 capacity is already sold out. HBM4 pricing is reportedly up 30% from HBM3E to around $700 per unit, implying 50–60% operating margins. Citigroup raised its KOSPI target from 7,000 to 8,500, citing semiconductor earnings expansion, fiscal stimulus, and corporate governance reforms. South Korea’s total market capitalization has now overtaken Canada’s, making it the world’s 7th largest equity market at $4.59 trillion.

韩国 KOSPI 指数创下有史以来最猛烈的单日暴涨之一，收盘劲升 11.19% 报 7,384.23 点。三星电子(005930.KS)飙涨逾 14%，SK 海力士(000660.KS)跳涨逾 10%，双双刷新历史新高。这两家芯片巨擘目前合计占 KOSPI 总市值约 43%，意味着两者每波动 1% 即带动指数约 0.43%。三星设备解决方案(DS)部门一季度营业利润同比激增 48 倍，受益于 AI 数据中心订单；公司更披露 2026 年 HBM4 产能已全数售罄。HBM4 定价据传较 HBM3E 上涨约 30% 至每颗 700 美元左右，推算营业利润率可达 50–60%。花旗集团将 KOSPI 目标位从 7000 点大幅上调至 8500 点，理由是半导体盈利扩张、财政刺激及企业治理改革。韩国股市总市值已超越加拿大，以 4.59 万亿美元成为全球第七大股票市场。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 rocketed 3.82% to 62,848.90, breaching the 62,000 threshold for the first time in history after a multi-day holiday hiatus that created significant catch-up demand. The yen’s recent strengthening — with USD/JPY retreating to 156.33 — also buoyed sentiment, with market chatter suggesting repeated Tokyo intervention to support the currency. Semiconductor plays led the charge: Tokyo Electron (8035.T) surged over 8%, Advantest (6857.T) jumped nearly 8%, Renesas Electronics (6723.T) soared more than 9%, and Rohm (6963.T) climbed ~7%. SoftBank Group (9984.T) added over 12%. The rally reflects both relief over potential Hormuz reopening and confidence in Japan’s tech supply chain as a beneficiary of AI infrastructure buildouts.

日经 225 指数暴涨 3.82% 至 62,848.90 点，史上首次突破 62000 点大关。此前日本市场因假期连续多日休市，今日开盘后涌现大量补涨买盘。日元近期走坚——美元/日元回落至 156.33——亦提振市场情绪，市场传闻东京当局此前多次入市干预以支撑汇率。半导体个股领涨：东京电子(8035.T)飙升逾 8%，爱德万测试(6857.T)涨近 8%，瑞萨电子(6723.T)大涨逾 9%，罗姆半导体(6963.T)涨约 7%，软银集团(9984.T)涨逾 12%。此轮上涨既反映霍尔木兹海峡有望重开的释然情绪，也体现市场对日本科技供应链受益于 AI 基建扩张的信心。

香港 #

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose a more modest 1.96% to 26,623.94, lagging the explosive moves in Taipei and Seoul but still benefiting from the regional risk-on rotation. The Hang Seng Tech Index outperformed, climbing over 3% as Kuaishou (1024.HK) jumped more than 7%, Alibaba (9988.HK) added over 4%, and Bilibili (9626.HK) rose more than 3%. Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347.HK) surged over 6%. Chip plays were the clear winner, while oil and coal names sold off in sympathy with the crude collapse. The Southbound Connect saw mixed flows, with the Shenzhen channel reporting net selling of RMB 2.24 billion, suggesting some mainland profit-taking after the recent rally.

恒生指数上涨 1.96% 至 26,623.94 点，涨幅虽不及台北和首尔那般惊人，但仍受益于区域性风险偏好转暖。恒生科技指数表现优于大盘，涨幅逾 3%：快手-W(1024.HK)跳涨逾 7%，阿里巴巴-W(9988.HK)涨逾 4%，哔哩哔哩-W(9626.HK)涨逾 3%。华虹半导体(1347.HK)大涨逾 6%。芯片股成为最大赢家，而油气和煤炭板块随原油暴跌遭抛售。港股通资金流向分化，其中港股通(深)录得净卖出 22.44 亿元人民币，显示部分内地资金在近日上涨后获利了结。

中国 #

Mainland A-shares were relatively subdued compared to the fireworks in North Asia. The CSI 300 closed Wednesday up 1.45% at 4,877.09, while the Shanghai Composite added 1.17% and the Shenzhen Component rose 2.33%. Thursday midday saw the Shanghai Composite up 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component up 0.71%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.98%. CPO/optical communication stocks led the charge after Nvidia and Corning announced a multi-year technology partnership to expand U.S. fiber-optic capacity by 50%+, sending names like Tongding Interconnection, Hangzhou Cable, and TorchLight Technology to limit-up. The coal and oil sectors were the day’s losers as WTI’s 10% plunge triggered de-grossing in commodity-beta names. Turnover remained robust at around RMB 1.98 trillion midday, though slightly lower than the previous session.

相较于北亚市场的火爆，A 股表现相对克制。沪深 300 周三收盘涨 1.45% 报 4,877.09 点，上证综指涨 1.17%，深证成指涨 2.33%。周四午盘，上证综指涨 0.25%，深证成指涨 0.71%，创业板指涨 0.98%。CPO 及光通信概念在英伟达与康宁宣布多年合作协议（计划将美国光纤产能提升 50% 以上）后大幅拉升，通鼎互联、杭电股份、炬光科技等多股涨停。煤炭和油气板块则因 WTI 暴跌 10% 而遭减仓。午间成交额约 1.98 万亿元，仍属高位但较前一日略有萎缩。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

A 股 5 月 7 日早盘北向资金维持平稳，沪股通额度充足，深股通额度充足。白酒、消费电子及光通信板块获外资青睐，油气及煤炭板块遭减持。

南向资金 #

港股通(沪)早盘净买入约 0.43 亿元人民币；港股通(深)早盘净卖出 22.44 亿元人民币，呈现深弱沪强的分化格局。科技股仍为南向资金主要配置方向。

汇率与宏观 #

宏观速览： 美元全面走软，美元指数跌至 98.00。韩元因 KOSPI 暴涨及风险偏好回升而走强，美元/韩元大跌 1.57% 至 1450.88。黄金在避险需求边际降温的背景下仍上涨 4.1%，反映资金在停战预期兑现前对尾部风险的对冲。美国 10 年期国债收益率回落至 4.36%，股债同涨显示市场在定价 “软着陆 + 地缘缓和” 的组合。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势 (English): On May 6, Axios reported that the White House believes it is “getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations.” Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed it is evaluating the U.S. proposal. President Trump stated on Truth Social that if Iran agrees, “the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL.” If Iran refuses, Trump warned, “the bombing starts, and it will be… at a much higher level and intensity.”

最新态势 (中文): 5 月 6 日 Axios 报道，白宫认为其"接近与伊朗就一页备忘录达成协议，以结束战争并为更详细的核谈判设定框架"。伊朗外交部确认正在评估美方提案。特朗普在 Truth Social 发文称，若伊朗同意，“已成传奇的 Epic Fury 军事行动将结束，高效的海上封锁也将解除，霍尔木兹海峡将对所有国家开放”。若伊朗拒绝，特朗普警告"轰炸将重新开始，且烈度和强度将远超此前"。

受影响板块分析：

关键时间节点：

• 5 月上旬：美伊双方是否正式签署一页备忘录（MOU）
• 5 月中下旬：若谈判破裂，特朗普威胁"更高级别轰炸"可能兑现
• 6 月：Goldman Sachs 此前估计即使海峡完全重开，海湾出口流量也要到 7 月才能正常化

专家研判：

• 相对受益方向： ①航空航运（燃油成本下降）；②半导体科技股（风险偏好回升）；③化工炼化（原材料成本下降）；④消费电子（供应链稳定预期）；⑤港股科网股（外资回流新兴市场的第一站）
• 需要回避方向： ①油气上游（WTI 已跌破 $100，若停战确认或进一步下探 $80）；②煤炭（能源替代溢价消失）；③军工/防务（订单脉冲退潮）；④黄金短期多头（地缘溢价收敛）
• 情景分析：
  • 情景 A（55% 概率）： 5 月内签署 MOU，海峡逐步开放。WTI 回落至 $80–$90，科技股继续领跑，全球股市估值扩张。
  • 情景 B（30% 概率）： 谈判反复， ceasefire 维持但海峡通行缓慢。油价在 $95–$110 区间震荡，市场波动率上升。
  • 情景 C（15% 概率）： 谈判破裂，美国发动新一轮高强度空袭。油价飙升至 $120+，股市回调 5–10%，黄金冲上 $5,000。

2. 俄乌战争 #

战局目前维持僵持状态，市场注意力已被中东冲突大幅分流。欧洲对俄制裁未现重大变化，能源市场定价重心从天然气转向中东石油。该冲突对亚洲市场直接影响有限，主要通过全球通胀预期和美联储政策路径间接传导。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

特朗普政府 2025 年对华加征的高额关税在 2026 年 2 月经最高法院裁定部分无效后已大幅回落。美国 2026 年一季度自中国进口同比下降 40.7%，供应链重构仍在持续，但市场对关税冲击的恐慌已显著消退。目前焦点转向韩美、日美等双边贸易协议的推进情况。

关键主题 #

• AI 算力超级周期： HBM4 涨价 30%、产能售罄，三星 Q1 芯片利润暴增 48 倍，证明 AI 基础设施需求远未见顶。
• 霍尔木兹海峡停战交易： 单日 WTI 暴跌 10% 与股市暴涨形成镜像，市场在全力押注地缘政治缓和。
• 日韩台半导体三角： 三地股指齐创历史新高，AI 供应链集中度达到前所未有的高度——台积电占台股 40%、三星+SK 海力士占韩股 43%。
• 美元指数跌破 98： 美元走软释放新兴市场估值弹性，韩元、台币、日元同步走强。
• 能源股资金大挪移： 原油暴跌触发 commodity-beta 板块 de-grossing，资金加速从油气/煤炭转向科技成长。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。