亚洲午盘 — 2026-05-06

市场概览 #

今日亚洲市场在AI芯片超级周期、中东局势边际缓和及油价回落的三重催化下全面爆发。韩国KOSPI历史性暴涨11.80%，首次突破7,000点大关，触发买盘sidecar交易暂停；台湾加权指数连续第三日飙升，大涨4.65%站上41,000点。A股劳动节假期后首日高开高走，科创50午盘涨超8%，存储芯片板块多股涨停。港股反弹1.65%，收复昨日失地。日本因绿之日继续休市。

指数表现 #

* 日经225数据日期为2026-05-01，日本今日因绿之日休市。

** 沪深300数据日期为2026-04-30（节前收盘），A股今日开盘后的沪深300午盘数据尚未纳入数据源。

*** 上证综指为2026-05-06午盘数据（节前收盘4,112.16）。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX extended its parabolic rally for a third consecutive session, surging 4.65% to close at a record 41,129.82. The index has now gained more than 12% in just three trading days, a velocity last seen during the pandemic reopening frenzy of 2021. TSMC remained the gravitational center of the market, with its Taipei-listed shares contributing disproportionately to index upside as domestic funds continued to rebalance following the April regulatory relaxation on single-stock holding limits. The AI infrastructure capex narrative received fresh fuel overnight as AMD rallied 12% in extended trading on stronger-than-expected data-center revenue guidance, reinforcing the conviction that the semiconductor upcycle is not merely cyclical but structural. Market breadth, however, remained alarmingly narrow — non-tech sectors such as petrochemicals and financials were largely left behind, with the electronics sub-index outperforming the broader market by nearly 500 basis points. Foreign investors net-bought NT$66.98 billion on Monday, and early indications suggest similarly aggressive accumulation today.

台湾加权指数连续第三个交易日呈抛物线式上涨，暴涨4.65%收于创纪录的41,129.82点。该指数仅三个交易日便涨逾12%，如此速度上次出现还要追溯到2021年疫情后重新开放时期的狂热。台积电仍是市场的引力中心，其台北上市股票在4月基金单一持股上限监管放宽后继续不成比例地贡献指数涨幅。AI基础设施资本支出叙事隔夜再获新燃料——AMD在盘后交易中飙涨12%，因数据中心营收指引强于预期，强化了半导体上行周期并非单纯的周期性而是结构性需求的信念。然而市场广度仍然令人担忧地偏窄：非科技板块如石化和金融大多被抛在后面，电子类股指数跑赢大盘近500个基点。外资周一净买入669.8亿新台币，早盘迹象表明今日仍有同样激进的加仓动作。

韩国 #

South Korea’s KOSPI delivered one of the most spectacular single-session rallies in modern market history, skyrocketing 11.80% to close at 7,395.52 — shattering the 7,000-point barrier for the first time ever. The intraday advance was so violent that it triggered a rare buy-side “sidecar” trading curb, pausing program buy orders for five minutes after KOSPI 200 futures surged 5% at the open. Samsung Electronics leapt more than 11% to breach KRW 250,000 per share, pushing its market capitalization above $1 trillion and making it only the second Asian company after TSMC to join the trillion-dollar club. SK Hynix surged approximately 10% to hit a fresh all-time high above KRW 1.6 million. The rally was ignited by a perfect storm of catalysts: AMD’s blowout data-center guidance, a sharp retreat in WTI crude (-3.9% overnight) after Trump announced a pause in the Hormuz “Project Freedom” escort operation, and relentless foreign buying concentrated in semiconductor names. Foreign investors net-purchased KRW 1.32 trillion of shares and KRW 441.7 billion of KOSPI 200 futures by mid-morning, while domestic institutions and retail investors were net sellers — a classic momentum-driven de-grossing of local accounts. The macro backdrop also improved: April CPI came in at 2.6% YoY, a mild reflation that reduces the risk of aggressive BOK tightening without threatening overheating.

韩国KOSPI上演了现代市场史上最壮观的单日暴涨之一，狂飙11.80%收于7,395.52点——历史上首次突破7,000点大关。日内涨幅如此猛烈，以至于触发了罕见的买盘sidecar交易限制：KOSPI 200期货开盘飙涨5%后，程序化买单被暂停五分钟。三星电子跳涨逾11%，突破每股25万韩元，推动其市值突破1万亿美元，成为继台积电之后第二家加入万亿市值俱乐部的亚洲公司。SK海力士飙升约10%，创下逾160万韩元的历史新高。这波涨势由多重催化剂构成的"完美风暴"点燃：AMD炸裂的数据中心指引、特朗普宣布暂停霍尔木兹"自由行动"护航后WTI原油大幅回落（隔夜-3.9%）、以及集中在半导体个股上的 relentless（ relentless）外资买入。截至上午中段，外资净买入1.32万亿韩元股票和4,417亿韩元KOSPI 200期货，而本土机构和散户则呈净卖出——这是典型的由动能驱动的本地账户减仓（de-grossing）。宏观背景亦在改善：4月CPI同比2.6%，属温和再通胀，既降低了韩国央行激进收紧的风险，也不构成过热威胁。

深度分析 #

KOSPI 7,000: 结构性重估还是泡沫化前夜？

KOSPI年内累计涨幅已超过74%（2025年全年涨76%），市净率接近2.5倍，为2000年以来最高水平。当前市场估值已充分定价了2026年存储芯片超级周期的乐观情景。三星和SK海力士合计占KOSPI权重逾43%，指数集中度风险与台湾TAIEX的台积电依赖症不相上下。一个关键的分歧点在于：市场正在定价内存芯片从"周期性"转向"结构性"需求的叙事——即AI数据中心对HBM（高带宽内存）和DDR5的需求将打破过去几十年的盛衰循环。SK海力士一季度DRAM平均售价环比上涨约60%，NAND涨幅约70%，这一价格动能短期内难以逆转。然而，风险在于：① 若AI资本支出增速在2026年下半年见顶，当前的前瞻估值将面临重估；② 韩元大幅升值（今日涨1.31%至1,457.2）将侵蚀出口商盈利；③ 中东局势的任何反复都可能迅速逆转风险偏好。从资金流向看，外资是此轮上涨的主要推手，而本地散户被迫减仓，这意味着一旦外资流出现逆转，波动将极为剧烈。

日本 #

Japanese equity markets remained closed for Greenery Day, with the most recent benchmark close on May 1 showing the Nikkei 225 at 59,513.12, down a marginal 0.34%. Trading activity had been subdued ahead of the extended Golden Week holiday, with investors largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy assessment. The yen’s persistent strength — USD/JPY plunged another 2.67% to 155.90 today, its lowest level in weeks — has raised fresh concerns about the earnings translation impact for Japan’s large-cap exporters, though domestic-facing sectors and financials have benefited from the rate differential narrative. Semiconductor equipment makers, which had rallied sharply in late April on the back of TSMC and Samsung momentum, may face renewed volatility when markets reopen on Thursday given the escalating Middle East tensions and their potential impact on global capex timelines. The dramatic won and yuan appreciation against the dollar today also suggests Japan’s regional competitiveness could face headwinds when trading resumes.

日本股市因绿之日继续休市，最近一个基准交易日（5月1日）日经225收于59,513.12点，微跌0.34%。在黄金周长假前交易活动较为低迷，投资者在央行即将进行的政策评估前保持观望。日元的持续走强——美元/日元今日再跌2.67%至155.90，为数周来最低水平——引发了市场对日本大型出口商盈利汇兑折算影响的新担忧，尽管内需板块和金融股受益于利差叙事。半导体设备制造商在4月下旬因台积电和三星的动能而大涨，但在周四市场重新开盘时可能面临新的波动，因为中东局势及其对全球资本支出时间表的潜在影响仍在发酵。今日韩元与人民币对美元的大幅升值也暗示，日本在区域竞争力方面可能面临逆风。

香港 #

Hong Kong equities bounced back sharply from Tuesday’s Iran-driven selloff, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.65% to 26,104.42 at midday. The rebound was led by a broad-based recovery in risk appetite as oil prices retreated and Trump signaled progress toward a comprehensive Iran deal. Tech heavyweights recaptured some footing: the Hang Seng Tech Index outperformed, with semiconductor and EV battery names leading the charge. CATL and Tianneng Power extended their gains on solid EV battery demand, while chip design firm C-Core Technology continued its parabolic ascent. The property sector also staged a modest rebound as investors tentatively returned to beta-sensitive names. Southbound flows were mixed — Shanghai Connect registered a modest net inflow of RMB 140 million, while Shenzhen Connect saw a net outflow of RMB 2.16 billion, suggesting mainland investors are selectively taking profits in Hong Kong positions after the holiday reopening. Turnover improved to approximately HK$75 billion at midday, though still below the recent average, indicating that while dip-buying emerged, conviction remains tentative ahead of further Hormuz clarity.

港股从周二受伊朗局势拖累的抛售中强劲反弹，恒生指数午盘涨1.65%至26,104.42点。反弹由风险偏好的广泛复苏引领——油价回落且特朗普释放出与伊朗达成全面协议取得进展的信号。科技权重股重新站稳脚跟：恒生科技指数跑赢大盘，半导体和电动车电池个股领涨。宁德时代和天能动力在强劲的电动车电池需求支撑下延续涨势，而芯片设计公司芯成科技继续其抛物线式攀升。地产板块亦出现温和反弹，投资者试探性地回归对贝塔敏感的个股。南向资金流向分化——沪港通录得1.4亿元人民币的温和净流入，而深港通则出现21.6亿元人民币净流出，暗示内地投资者在假期复市后有选择性地对港股头寸获利了结。午间成交额改善至约750亿港元，但仍低于近期平均水平，表明逢低买盘虽出现，但在霍尔木兹局势进一步明朗前，市场信心仍属试探性质。

中国 #

Mainland Chinese markets reopened after the five-day Labor Day Golden Week holiday with a bang, as the Shanghai Composite surged 1.27% to 4,164.42 at midday, the Shenzhen Component jumped 2.57% to 15,496.48, and the ChiNext Index leapt 3.29% to 3,798.06. The standout performer was the STAR 50 Index, which exploded more than 8% higher as semiconductor and AI-related stocks went into a buying frenzy. The storage chip complex was the epicenter of the rally: DapuStor (+20%), Longsys (+20%), and Hygon Information (+20%) all hit their daily upper limits. The rally was turbocharged by overnight gains in U.S. chip stocks — the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 4.2% — and the positive read-through from AMD’s data-center strength. Sectoral flows showed technology-dominated inflows: digital chip design (+RMB 6.66 billion), semiconductors (+RMB 4.63 billion), and communications (+RMB 3.73 billion). On the downside, oil and gas names sold off sharply as crude prices retreated, with Zhongman Petroleum falling 6.42%. Consumer staples also lagged, with Wuliangye dropping 4.98%. The market’s posture suggests investors are aggressively positioning for continued AI and semiconductor self-reliance themes, with the pre-holiday momentum in chip names accelerating rather than fading on reopening.

中国大陆市场在五一劳动节黄金周假期后首日强势复市，上证综指午盘大涨1.27%至4,164.42点，深成指跳涨2.57%至15,496.48点，创业板指飙升3.29%至3,798.06点。最亮眼的当属科创50指数，暴涨逾8%，半导体及AI相关个股陷入抢购狂潮。存储芯片板块是此次暴涨的震中：大普微(+20%)、江波龙(+20%)、海光信息(+20%)均触及日涨幅上限。隔夜美国芯片股大涨——费城半导体指数飙升4.2%——以及AMD数据中心业务强劲的正面外溢效应，为这波涨势注入了新动力。板块资金流向显示科技类主导流入：数字芯片设计(+66.6亿元)、半导体(+46.3亿元)、通信(+37.3亿元)。跌幅方面，油气股随原油价格回落遭重挫，中曼石油跌6.42%。消费类亦表现落后，五粮液跌4.98%。市场姿态暗示投资者正在积极围绕AI和半导体自主可控主题进行仓位布局，芯片股节前的 momentum（动能）在复市后非但没有消退，反而进一步加速。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

A股今日劳动节假期后复市，北向资金午盘数据尚未完整更新。节前最后交易日（4月30日）行业层面数据显示半导体和军工电子板块获集中流入，集成电路制造板块净流入65.6亿元，军工电子净流入21.4亿元。今日早盘科技板块继续呈现强势流入态势。

南向资金 #

港股通今日恢复交易，资金流向出现分化：沪港通（南向）录得约1.40亿元人民币的温和净流入；深港通（南向）出现约21.57亿元人民币净流出，暗示内地投资者在深市港股通标的中进行获利了结。港股今日反弹主要由本地及国际资金主导，南向资金态度偏谨慎。

汇率与宏观 #

宏观要点： 今日亚洲货币对美元普遍大幅升值，韩元涨2.23%至1,454.28，日元涨2.67%至155.90，人民币涨0.29%至6.82。这一同步升值反映了两股力量：① 特朗普暂停霍尔木兹护航行动后，中东风险溢价部分回落；② 韩国和台湾股市暴涨吸引资金流入，本地货币需求激增。黄金在地缘冲突背景下上涨0.65%至4,659.90美元，与昨日的大跌形成对比，显示避险需求在油价回落后重新回流。WTI原油在100美元上方盘整，隔夜曾因特朗普暂停"Project Freedom"而大跌3.9%，但日内跌幅收窄，市场仍在评估霍尔木兹通航前景的不确定性。美国10年期国债收益率持平于4.42%。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势：

U.S.-Iranian tensions in the Strait of Hormuz saw a marginal de-escalation on May 5 after President Trump announced a temporary pause in “Project Freedom,” the U.S. military escort operation for commercial vessels, citing “Great Progress” toward a comprehensive agreement with Iranian representatives. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth maintained that the April 8 ceasefire “certainly holds” and that Iran’s attacks on Monday had not reached the threshold of “major combat operations.” However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Beijing on May 6 for talks with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, while Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces continued missile and drone attacks on UAE targets for a second consecutive day — including a strike that ignited a fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone. The IRGC also warned that any vessels diverting from Iran’s declared corridor through Hormuz would face a “firm response.” Approximately 1,500 commercial vessels carrying some 22,500 seafarers remain trapped in the Persian Gulf.

5月5日，特朗普宣布暂时暂停"自由行动"（Project Freedom）——美军为商船提供的护航行动——称与伊朗代表达成全面协议的谈判取得"重大进展"，美伊在霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势出现边际缓和。美国防长皮特·赫格塞思坚称4月8日的停火"仍然有效"，并表示伊朗周一的攻击未达到"重大军事行动"的门槛。然而，伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐于5月6日抵达北京，与中国最高外交官王毅举行会谈；同时伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队部队连续第二日向阿联酋目标发射导弹和无人机——包括对富查伊拉石油工业区发起袭击并引发火灾。革命卫队还警告称，任何偏离伊朗宣布的霍尔木兹航道的船只都将面临"坚决回应"。目前仍有约1,500艘商船、约22,500名海员被困在波斯湾内。

受影响板块分析：

关键时间节点：

• 5月14-15日：特朗普原定访华日期（已因美以袭击伊朗而推迟），若成行可能成为美伊间接谈判的关键窗口
• 5月中旬：美伊潜在第二轮伊斯兰堡谈判窗口，若破裂可能触发新一轮军事升级
• 5月31日：Polymarket预测霍尔木兹恢复正常通航概率为73%，若届时未兑现油价可能剧烈波动
• 6月初：OPEC+产量政策会议，沙特闲置产能释放意愿将受密切关注

专家研判：

• 相对受益方向： ① 油气上游（供应中断溢价持续）；② 半导体设备（各国本土化产能扩张）；③ 军工电子（地区军备竞赛）；④ 核能/替代能源（能源安全叙事）；⑤ 黄金（避险需求回归）
• 需要回避方向： ① 航空（燃油成本冲击在Q2集中体现）；② 航运/港口（通航中断和保费飙升）；③ 消费/零售（能源成本推高通胀侵蚀购买力）；④ 高杠杆新兴市场资产（美元流动性波动风险）
• 情景分析：
  • 基准情景（45%概率）：美伊维持"灰色地带"对峙，不宣布停火破裂但偶发交火持续，油价在$95-$110区间波动，风险资产间歇性承压但无系统性冲击
  • 升级情景（25%概率）：伊朗完全封锁霍尔木兹或美军对伊朗港口发动空袭，油价突破$130，全球股市短期回调5-10%
  • 缓和情景（30%概率）：中国斡旋下达成临时通行协议，油价回落至$90以下，风险资产迅速反弹，半导体和航运板块最为敏感

2. 俄乌战争 #

俄乌冲突持续但市场关注度已显著下降，当前战线基本冻结。欧盟对俄制裁框架未出现重大变化，能源市场已逐步适应去俄罗斯化的供应链重构。对亚洲市场的直接影响有限，但长期军费开支上升正挤压欧洲财政空间，间接影响欧洲对亚洲出口的购买力。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

U.S.-China technology restrictions remain an overhang for Chinese semiconductor and AI-related equities. The Trump administration’s recent halt of onshore wind energy projects on national security grounds signals a broadening of sectoral trade tensions beyond traditional tech hardware. For Asian markets, the primary concern remains potential escalation in semiconductor export controls targeting advanced node manufacturing equipment, though today’s rally suggests investors are currently more focused on demand fundamentals than policy risks.

关键主题 #

• AI算力军备竞赛：四大美国CSP 2026年资本支出合计约$7,250亿（+77% YoY），AMD数据中心业务超预期，台积电、三星、SK海力士处于产业链最核心位置，亚洲半导体牛市逻辑持续强化
• KOSPI历史性破7,000：韩国股市年内涨超74%，三星市值破万亿美元，SK海力士创历史新高，外资是主要推手，本地散户被迫减仓，市场集中度风险加剧
• 霍尔木兹外交窗口：特朗普暂停护航行动释放缓和信号，伊朗外长访华寻求中国斡旋，但阿联酋连续遭袭显示军事摩擦仍在持续，油价风险溢价尚未完全消退
• A股节后芯片狂欢：科创50午盘涨超8%，存储芯片多股20cm涨停，资金围绕AI和自主可控主题 aggressively（积极）加仓，油气消费板块遭抛弃
• 亚洲货币同步升值：韩元、日元、人民币今日对美元齐涨，反映区域资金流入和美元避险需求部分消退的双重效应

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。