亚洲午盘 — 2026-05-05

市场概览 #

今日亚洲市场呈现极端分化格局。台湾市场在AI基础设施资本支出狂潮和基金持股上限放宽的双重催化下续涨逾3%，台积电和AI供应链全面飙升；韩国因儿童节假期休市，但韩股ETF在美国市场继续大涨4.38%，反映外资对存储芯片超级周期的追逐仍在加速。与此形成鲜明对比的是，港股受美伊在霍尔木兹海峡军事对峙升级的拖累大幅回调，恒指午盘跌逾1%，恒生科技指数跌近2%，科技股和汽车股领跌。日本因绿之日、中国大陆因劳动节假期最后一日休市。

指数表现 #

* KOSPI数据日期为2026-05-04（韩国今日休市）；日经225为2026-05-01（日本今日休市）；沪深300与上证综指为2026-04-30（中国今日休市）。
** 港股午盘数据，前一交易日（05-04）收盘报26,095.88（+1.24%）。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX extended its record-breaking rally for a second consecutive session, surging 3.08% to close at 40,737.48 after breaching the 40,000 psychological milestone on Monday. The semiconductor complex remained the sole engine of upside, with TSMC contributing disproportionately to index gains following last week’s regulatory relaxation on fund single-stock holding limits. The four major U.S. cloud service providers — Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta — unveiled an aggregate 2026 capex guidance of approximately $725 billion, up 77% year-on-year, cementing conviction in a multi-year AI infrastructure buildout. TSMC, as the dominant foundry beneficiary, saw aggressive institutional accumulation. Market breadth was notably narrow, however, with non-tech sectors largely left behind, raising questions about the sustainability of an index increasingly levered to a single name and a single theme.

台湾加权指数连续第二个交易日创下历史新高，大涨3.08%收于40,737.48点，周一刚突破40,000点大关。半导体板块仍是唯一的上涨引擎，台积电在上周基金单一持股上限放宽后继续 disproportionately（不成比例地）贡献指数涨幅。四大美国云服务巨头——谷歌、亚马逊、微软和Meta——公布的2026年资本支出指引合计约7,250亿美元，同比增长77%，强化了市场对多年期AI基础设施建设的信心。台积电作为全球晶圆代工霸主，遭机构资金 aggressively（激进）加仓。不过市场广度明显偏窄，非科技类股大多被抛在后面，这引发了对一个越来越依赖单一公司和单一主题的指数之可持续性的质疑。

深度分析 #

基金持股上限放宽的结构性影响

台湾金管会在4月下旬将岛内股票型基金及主动型ETF的单一持股上限从10%大幅上调至25%，而台积电是台湾股市唯一市值占比超过10%的标的（约44%）。这一政策调整直接释放了数以千亿计新台币的潜在买盘——此前由于10%上限，大量本地基金被迫低配台积电，造成显著追踪误差。据估算，超过180档岛内股票型基金将因此获得加仓空间。短期来看，这一监管红利为台积电及台股提供了额外的资金流入动力；但中长期而言，这也将加剧台股与台积电之间的相关性风险，指数波动率将更紧密地锚定于单一公司的股价表现。

韩国 #

South Korean markets were closed for Children’s Day, but the bullish momentum from Monday’s historic session continued to reverberate through offshore channels. The KOSPI had surged 5.12% on May 4 to close at a record 6,936.99, with SK Hynix hitting an all-time high of KRW 1.45 million and Samsung Electronics breaking above KRW 230,000. The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) rose another 4.38% in U.S. trading, suggesting foreign investors remain eager to add exposure despite the holiday closure. The rally was underpinned by explosive April export data — semiconductor shipments jumped more than 180% year-on-year in the first 20 days of April — and aggressive earnings revisions, with consensus KOSPI operating profit forecasts for 2026 rising 32% in a single month to KRW 850 trillion. Foreign investors and domestic institutions net-bought KRW 3.96 trillion and KRW 2.56 trillion respectively on Monday, while retail investors were forced to de-gross.

韩国市场因儿童节假期休市，但周一历史性交易日的牛市动能继续通过离岸渠道发酵。KOSPI在5月4日暴涨5.12%，创下6,936.99点的历史新高，SK海力士触及145万韩元的历史新高，三星电子突破23万韩元大关。iShares MSCI韩国ETF（EWY）在美国交易时段再涨4.38%，表明外资在假期休市的情况下仍然 eager（急切）增持韩股。这波涨势由炸裂的4月出口数据支撑——4月前20天半导体出口同比暴增逾180%——以及激进的盈利上修共同推动，KOSPI 2026年营业利润共识预期在一个月内上调32%至850万亿韩元。周一外资和本土机构分别净买入3.96万亿和2.56万亿韩元，而散户投资者被迫 de-gross（减仓）。

深度分析 #

存储芯片超级周期与"韩国折价"的收敛

野村证券近期将存储芯片超级周期的持续时间延长至2027年，并预计真正有意义的新增产能最早要到2028年初才会出现。在这一供需极度紧张的背景下，三星和SK海力士的DRAM及NAND价格在第一季度环比翻倍，远超此前预期。更值得关注的是，韩国企业的Value-Up计划（提升股东回报）和治理改革正在逐步消解长期困扰市场的"韩国折价"（Korea Discount）。尽管KOSPI在2025年已暴涨76%，其市盈率仍仅约10倍，是全球主要基准指数中最便宜的之一。当前外资回流的核心逻辑不仅是半导体周期，更是对韩国资本市场治理现代化的重新定价。

日本 #

Japanese equity markets were closed for Greenery Day, with the most recent benchmark close on May 1 showing the Nikkei 225 at 59,513.12, down a marginal 0.34%. Trading activity had been subdued ahead of the extended holiday, with investors largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy assessment. The yen’s persistent strength — USD/JPY declined another 1.44% to 157.26 on Monday — has raised fresh concerns about the earnings translation impact for Japan’s large-cap exporters, though domestic-facing sectors and financials have benefited from the rate differential narrative. Semiconductor equipment makers, which had rallied sharply in late April on the back of TSMC and Samsung momentum, may face renewed volatility when markets reopen given the escalating Middle East tensions and their potential impact on global capex timelines.

日本股市因绿之日假期休市，最近一个基准交易日（5月1日）日经225收于59,513.12点，微跌0.34%。在长假前交易活动较为 subdued（低迷），投资者在央行即将进行的政策评估前保持观望。日元的持续走强——美元/日元周一再跌1.44%至157.26——引发了市场对日本大型出口商盈利 translation impact（汇兑折算影响）的新担忧，尽管内需板块和金融股受益于利差叙事。半导体设备制造商在4月下旬因台积电和三星的 momentum（动能）而大涨，但在市场重新开盘时可能面临新的波动，因为中东局势升级及其对全球资本支出时间表的潜在影响。

香港 #

Hong Kong equities came under sharp selling pressure at Tuesday’s open as risk sentiment deteriorated rapidly following military clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz. The Hang Seng Index dropped as much as 1.41% in early trading before paring losses slightly, with the Hang Seng Tech Index shedding nearly 2%. Tech heavyweights led the decline: Xiaomi, which had surged over 6% on Monday, retraced more than 3%; BYD and Leapmotor fell over 4% each; and Horizon Robotics dropped nearly 5%. Gold miners also sold off sharply as bullion prices tumbled. A notable divergence emerged in chip and battery names, which bucked the broader downturn — chip design firm C-Core Technology extended its parabolic rally, surging over 60% after a 196% gain on Monday, while CATL and Tianneng Power rose over 3% on solid EV battery demand. Market participants appeared to be de-risking ahead of further clarity on Hormuz developments, with turnover contracting to HK$64.5 billion at midday.

港股周二开盘即遭猛烈抛售，因美军与伊朗军队在霍尔木兹海峡发生军事冲突，风险情绪迅速恶化。恒生指数早盘跌幅一度达1.41%，随后略有收窄，恒生科技指数跌近2%。科技权重股领跌：小米周一涨超6%后今日回撤逾3%；比亚迪和零跑汽车均跌超4%；地平线机器人跌近5%。黄金矿商也遭大幅抛售，因金价下挫。一个值得注意的 divergence（分化）出现在芯片和电池板块，它们逆势上涨——芯片设计公司芯成科技在周一暴涨196%后今日再飙逾60%，而宁德时代和天能动力在强劲的电动车电池需求支撑下涨超3%。市场参与者在霍尔木兹局势进一步明朗前似乎正在 de-risking（去风险化），午间成交额收窄至645.4亿港元。

深度分析 #

中东冲突升级对港股的传导路径

港股今日回调的核心驱动力是霍尔木兹海峡军事对峙升级带来的风险溢价重估。与美伊临时停火期间的乐观情绪相比，5月4日美军启动"Project Freedom"行动护送商船、伊朗发射导弹和无人机攻击美军舰艇、美军击沉6艘伊朗快艇的事件链，标志着冲突从外交博弈转向 kinetic engagement（动能交火）。对港股而言，这一局势升级通过三条路径传导：第一，油价跳涨直接冲击航空股和中国内房股（高能源成本挤压消费能力）；第二，全球风险偏好下降导致外资从新兴市场 de-gross，港股作为高度外资驱动的市场首当其冲；第三，黄金作为传统避险资产反常下跌（-2.53%），暗示部分投资者在追缴保证金压力下被迫抛售流动性较好的头寸，这种 forced liquidation（被迫平仓）的动态通常预示着短期波动加剧。

中国 #

Mainland Chinese markets remained closed for the final day of the Labor Day Golden Week holiday, with the most recent closes on April 30 showing the CSI 300 up 0.80% at 4,807.31 and the Shanghai Composite rising 0.79% to 4,112.16. Pre-holiday flows showed a distinct preference for semiconductor and defense-related sectors, with integrated circuit manufacturing seeing net inflows of RMB 6.56 billion and military electronics receiving RMB 2.14 billion. Utilities and battery sectors experienced modest outflows. The market’s posture ahead of the holiday suggested investors were positioning for continued AI and self-reliance themes, though the reopen on Wednesday will face a potentially challenging global backdrop given the Hormuz escalation and overnight moves in crude and gold. Market attention will also focus on whether the strong pre-holiday semiconductor momentum can sustain against renewed concerns about U.S.-China technology restrictions.

中国大陆市场因劳动节黄金周假期最后一日继续休市，最近一个交易日（4月30日）沪深300涨0.80%收于4,807.31点，上证综指涨0.79%至4,112.16点。节前资金流向显示对半导体和国防相关板块的明显偏好，集成电路制造板块净流入65.6亿元，军工电子净流入21.4亿元。公用事业和电池板块出现小幅净流出。市场在假期前的姿态暗示投资者正在围绕AI和自主可控主题进行 positioning（仓位布局），但周三复市将面对一个 potentially challenging（可能充满挑战）的全球背景，鉴于霍尔木兹局势升级以及隔夜原油和黄金的剧烈波动。市场注意力还将聚焦于节前强劲的半导体 momentum（动能）能否在美方对华技术限制的新担忧面前持续。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

中国大陆市场休市，无今日北向资金数据。节前最后交易日（4月30日）北向资金流向未在数据源中更新，但行业层面数据显示半导体和军工电子板块获集中流入。

南向资金 #

中国大陆市场休市，港股通暂停。港股今日回调主要由本地及国际资金主导，午间成交额645.4亿港元较近期平均水平有所萎缩，反映风险偏好快速降温。

汇率与宏观 #

宏观要点： 日元今日显著走强至157.26，反映避险资金流入日本资产。黄金在地缘冲突升级背景下反常大跌1.58%，盘中一度跌超2.5%，显示部分杠杆头寸被迫平仓。WTI原油在$104上方盘整，但盘中因地缘局势跳涨逾4%，市场正在重新评估霍尔木兹海峡供应中断的持续性风险。美元指数小幅反弹0.44%至98.51。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

最新态势：

U.S.-Iranian military confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz escalated sharply on May 4. U.S. Central Command launched “Project Freedom,” an operation to escort U.S.-flagged commercial vessels through the strait using guided-missile destroyers. Iranian forces responded by attacking an Emirati-affiliated tanker with drones, firing cruise missiles and drones at U.S. warships and merchant vessels, and deploying six fast-attack craft — all of which were sunk by U.S. forces. Iranian hardliners, including the IRGC Navy commander, threatened to attack any vessel transiting without Iranian permission. President Trump stated the Iranian actions did not constitute a ceasefire violation, but simultaneously warned Iran would be “wiped off the face of the Earth” if it fired on U.S. ships. The UAE also came under missile and drone attack, raising fears of regional contagion.

5月4日，美伊在霍尔木兹海峡的军事对抗急剧升级。美军中央司令部启动"自由行动"（Project Freedom），使用导弹驱逐舰护送悬挂美国国旗的商船通过海峡。伊朗方面则以无人机攻击一艘阿联酋油轮，向美军舰艇和商船发射巡航导弹和无人机，并派出6艘快速攻击艇——全部被美军击沉。伊朗强硬派包括伊斯兰革命卫队海军指挥官威胁将攻击任何未经伊朗许可通行的船只。特朗普总统称伊朗行动不构成停火违反，但同时警告若伊朗向美舰开火将被"从地球表面抹去"。阿联酋亦遭到导弹和无人机袭击，引发地区冲突蔓延的担忧。

受影响板块分析：

关键时间节点：

• 5月中旬：美伊潜在第二轮伊斯兰堡谈判窗口，若破裂可能触发新一轮军事升级
• 5月31日：Polymarket预测霍尔木兹恢复正常通航概率为73%，若届时未兑现油价可能剧烈波动
• 6月初：OPEC+产量政策会议，沙特闲置产能释放意愿将受密切关注

专家研判：

• 相对受益方向： ① 油气上游（供应中断溢价）；② 军工电子（地区军备竞赛）；③ 核能/替代能源（能源安全叙事）；④ 黄金（短期波动后避险需求回归）；⑤ 美元现金/短债（风险资产波动率上升）
• 需要回避方向： ① 航空（燃油成本冲击在Q2集中体现）；② 航运/港口（通航中断和保费飙升）；③ 消费/零售（能源成本推高通胀侵蚀购买力）；④ 高杠杆新兴市场资产（美元流动性收紧风险）
• 情景分析：
  • 基准情景（45%概率）： 美伊维持"灰色地带"对峙，不宣布停火破裂但交火持续，油价在$100-$115区间波动，风险资产承压但无系统性冲击
  • 升级情景（30%概率）： 美军对伊朗港口/电力设施发动空袭，伊朗完全封锁霍尔木兹，油价突破$130，全球股市短期回调5-10%
  • 缓和情景（25%概率）： 阿曼斡旋下达成临时通行协议，油价回落至$90以下，风险资产迅速反弹

2. 俄乌战争 #

俄乌冲突持续但市场关注度已显著下降，当前战线基本冻结。欧盟对俄制裁框架未出现重大变化，能源市场已逐步适应去俄罗斯化的供应链重构。对亚洲市场的直接影响有限，但长期军费开支上升正挤压欧洲财政空间，间接影响欧洲对亚洲出口的购买力。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

U.S.-China technology restrictions remain an overhang for Chinese semiconductor and AI-related equities. The Trump administration’s recent halt of onshore wind energy projects on national security grounds signals a broadening of sectoral trade tensions beyond traditional tech hardware. For Asian markets, the primary concern remains potential escalation in semiconductor export controls targeting advanced node manufacturing equipment.

关键主题 #

• AI算力军备竞赛：四大美国CSP 2026年资本支出合计$7,250亿（+77% YoY），台积电、三星、SK海力士处于产业链最核心位置，亚洲半导体牛市逻辑持续强化
• 霍尔木兹海峡军事化：美伊从外交博弈转向 kinetic engagement，原油风险溢价重估，航运保险和运费飙升，全球供应链面临新一轮冲击
• 台韩半导体分化：台湾受益逻辑芯片代工（台积电），韩国受益存储芯片超级周期（SK海力士/三星），两地指数同步创新高但驱动力有所分化
• 港股避险模式：中东冲突升级触发外资 de-risking，科技和消费板块领跌，但半导体和锂电池逆势走强显示结构性资金仍在寻找确定性
• 黄金异常抛售：地缘冲突升级但金价大跌，暗示杠杆头寸被迫平仓，短期可能继续波动，但避险需求回归只是时间问题

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。