亚洲午盘 — 2026-04-27

市场概览 #

亚洲市场周一午盘呈现罕见的极端分化：以AI算力为核心的东亚市场——中国台湾与韩国——录得史诗级暴涨，双双刷新历史新高；而受能源进口成本持续攀升冲击的南亚及东南亚市场则延续承压。霍尔木兹海峡封锁进入第八周，WTI原油维持于95美元上方，但资金对AI基础设施（AIDC）的狂热已完全覆盖地缘风险溢价。台韩市场的爆发式上涨并非孤立事件，而是全球资本对HBM内存、AI服务器代工及先进制程产能的系统性重定价。

指数表现 #

注：HSI、CSI 300 及上证综指数据更新至 2026-04-24（上周五），周一早盘未录得显著变化。

台湾 #

Taiwan’s TAIEX exploded 6.15% to an all-time high of 39,916.20 in a historic session driven by TSMC’s AI monetization acceleration and unprecedented demand for advanced packaging capacity. The rally reflects a structural repricing of Taiwan’s semiconductor ecosystem as the “general contractor” of global AI datacenter buildouts — Foxconn’s AI server revenue is projected to exceed NT$1 trillion in 2025, commanding roughly 40% global market share. Market breadth was exceptionally strong with chip foundry, CoWoS packaging, and server ODM names leading. Foreign investors appear to be aggressively re-grossing positions after de-risking during the early-April Hormuz panic, with momentum funds chasing breakouts across the board.

台湾加权指数暴涨6.15%至39,916.20点的历史新高。本轮飙涨的核心驱动力来自台积电AI商业化加速，以及先进封装产能的极端供需失衡。台湾半导体产业链已被全球市场重定价为AI数据中心的"总承包商"——鸿海2025年AI服务器营收预计突破1万亿新台币，全球市占率约40%。盘面的上涨广度极为健康，晶圆代工、CoWoS封装及服务器ODM族群全面领涨。外资在4月初因霍尔木兹危机降仓后，现阶段正激进回补仓位，动量型基金全面追涨突破位。

韩国 #

South Korea’s KOSPI delivered its most explosive session in recent memory, surging 6.83% to 6,643.82 — not merely a record high but a punctuation mark on what has already been the world’s most dramatic equity rally. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, the dual pillars of HBM memory, led the charge as investors price in a “higher for longer” memory supercycle tied to Nvidia’s Blackwell and Rubin generation GPUs. Goldman Sachs recently raised its KOSPI target to 8,000; JPMorgan’s bull-case scenario now points to 8,500. Despite the parabolic move, Samsung and SK Hynix still trade at forward P/E multiples of roughly 5.6x and 4.8x respectively — a staggering discount to US semiconductor peers trading near 22x. The rally underscores a regime change: Korea is no longer viewed as a cyclical export market but as core AI infrastructure.

韩国KOSPI指数飙升6.83%至6,643.82点，不仅刷新历史新高，更是对其本轮全球最强牛市的一次暴力确认。SK海力士与三星电子作为HBM内存的双寡头领涨大盘，市场正在对英伟达Blackwell及Rubin世代GPU驱动的"更高更久"内存超级周期进行定价。高盛近期将KOSPI目标位上调至8,000点；摩根大通的牛市情景目标更是达到8,500点。尽管涨幅已呈抛物线态势，三星与SK海力士的远期市盈率分别仅约5.6倍和4.8倍，较美国芯片股基准约22倍的水平仍存在惊人的折价。本轮上涨标志着韩国市场的范式转移：它不再被视作周期性出口市场，而是AI核心基础设施。

日本 #

Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced a solid 2.42% to 60,782.99, participating in the broader East Asian tech rally while maintaining a more measured tone relative to Taiwan and Korea. Semiconductor equipment makers and AI-related hardware suppliers outperformed, riding the coattails of TSMC and memory capex expansion. The yen’s softness — USD/JPY holding near 159.16 — provided additional tailwind for exporters. However, Japan’s energy import vulnerability remains a structural overhang; with WTI crude anchored above $95/bbl, trade deficit concerns linger even as equity markets celebrate the AI capex cycle. Domestic investors appear to be rotating from defensives into semiconductor plays, but volumes suggest institutional participation rather than retail FOMO.

日本日经225指数稳健上涨2.42%至60,782.99点，参与了东亚科技板块的整体狂欢，但相较台韩市场更为克制。半导体设备商及AI硬件供应商表现突出，受益于台积电扩产及内存资本支出周期。日元偏弱（美元/日元位于159.16附近）为出口商提供了额外顺风。然而，日本的能源进口脆弱性仍是结构性隐忧——WTI原油稳定在95美元/桶上方，贸易逆差担忧持续存在。国内投资者似乎正在从防御板块轮动至半导体相关标的，但成交量显示参与主体为机构投资者，而非散户追涨。

香港 #

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.24% to 25,978.07 in thin, cautious trading. The modest gain masks a stark underperformance versus the explosive moves in North Asian tech markets. Southbound flows via Stock Connect were mixed: Shanghai-HK Connect registered a net inflow of HK$3.97 billion, while Shenzhen-HK Connect saw a net outflow of HK$1.59 billion, yielding a modest aggregate southbound bid. Property developers and China internet names showed tentative stabilization, but conviction remains low amid persistent concerns about the mainland property overhang and US-China tariff uncertainties. The market’s inability to capture the AI beta reflects Hong Kong’s sector composition — heavy in property, financials, and consumer platforms, underweight in pure-play semiconductor and hardware names.

香港恒生指数微涨0.24%至25,978.07点，成交清淡且情绪谨慎。这一温和涨幅掩盖了相较于北亚科技市场暴涨的显著跑输。南向资金表现分化：沪港通录得39.69亿港元净流入，深港通则净流出15.91亿港元，整体南向资金呈温和净流入。地产开发商及中国互联网板块初步企稳，但市场对内地房地产存量风险及中美关税不确定性仍存顾虑。港股未能捕捉AI行情Beta，根源在于其行业构成——地产、金融及消费平台权重过高，而纯正半导体及硬件标的配置不足。

中国 #

Mainland China markets were subdued ahead of the holiday-shortened week, with the CSI 300 down 0.35% to 4,769.37 and the Shanghai Composite slipping 0.33% to 4,079.90. Northbound flows were effectively flat, suggesting foreign investors are on hold pending clearer policy signals. Industrial gas and green power names saw selective buying, while liquid cooling and AI infrastructure plays retraced after earlier enthusiasm — notably, Envicool’s quarterly profit collapse (-82% YoY) triggered a harsh derating of the datacenter cooling sub-sector. The broader market narrative remains constrained by weak credit impulse data and property sector deleveraging, even as the “national team” continues to provide implicit floor support through ETF purchases.

A股市场在假期缩短的一周前表现低迷，沪深300下跌0.35%至4,769.37点，上证综指微跌0.33%至4,079.90点。北向资金基本持平，显示外资在等待更明确的政策信号前选择观望。工业气体及绿电概念股获选择性买盘，而液冷及AI基础设施板块在前期狂热后回吐——英维克一季度净利润同比暴跌82%，引发数据中心冷却细分板块的剧烈重估。整体市场叙事仍受信贷脉冲疲弱及房地产去杠杆的制约，尽管"国家队"通过ETF申购继续提供隐性底部支撑。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

北向资金周一早盘基本持平，沪股通及深股通净买入均显示为零（数据或因交易时段未完整更新），暗示外资在台韩市场暴涨之际对A股持观望态度。此前一周全球新兴市场基金对A股的配置已调回"中性"，但主动型基金仍较基准低配约320个基点。

南向资金 #

• 沪港通（港股通沪）：净买入 39.69亿港元
• 深港通（港股通深）：净卖出 15.91亿港元
• 合计：净买入约 23.78亿港元

南向资金整体维持对港股的温和配置，但深港通渠道出现净流出，显示内地资金对港股科技及中小盘的偏好有所降温。

汇率与宏观 #

WTI原油单日再涨2.55%至95.33美元，霍尔木兹海峡封锁的持续时间和强度已使油价彻底脱离2026年初70-80美元的波动区间。美国能源信息署（EIA）已将2026年布伦特均价预测大幅上调至96美元/桶。黄金在4,742美元附近窄幅整理，传统避险资产在此次能源冲击中未能提供有效对冲，凸显当前危机的特殊性。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡封锁 #

Latest: The Strait of Hormuz remains under a rare “dual blockade” dynamic as of April 27. The US Navy maintains restrictions on Iranian ports, while Iran continues to control transit routes within the strait. Over 2,000 vessels with tens of thousands of crew members remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. On April 22-23, Iran fired upon and seized two commercial cargo vessels — the Epaminondas and MSC Francesca — and attacked a third vessel, the Euphoria. Despite an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension brokered by Washington, US-Iran diplomatic channels show little progress. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned Thursday that “we are facing the biggest energy security threat in history,” with 13 million barrels per day of oil supply currently offline.

最新态势： 截至4月27日，霍尔木兹海峡处于罕见的"双重封锁"状态。美国海军持续限制伊朗港口，伊朗则控制着海峡内部航道。超过2,000艘船舶及数万名船员滞留波斯湾。4月22-23日，伊朗攻击并扣押了Epaminondas和MSC Francesca两艘商船，并袭击了第三艘Euphoria号。尽管美国斡旋的以黎停火协议已获延期，但美伊外交渠道进展寥寥。国际能源署署长Fatih Birol周四警告称，“我们正面临历史上最严重的能源安全威胁”，目前全球约有1,300万桶/日的石油供应中断。

受影响板块分析：

关键时间节点：

• 4月30日：美伊通过巴基斯坦的间接谈判可能释放新信号
• 5月上旬：若海峡仍未松动，IEA可能协调成员国释放战略石油储备（SPR）
• 5月中旬：OPEC+产量配额会议，若中东供应缺口持续，减产纪律可能松动

专家研判：

• 相对受益方向： (1) HBM/先进制程代工——AI需求刚性且与油价脱钩；(2) 油轮股——运距拉长及保险溢价双重利好；(3) 西方能源巨头——产量稳定、售价飙升；(4) 军工/国防——地区军备竞赛升级；(5) 铀/核能——能源安全焦虑推动替代能源投资。
• 需要回避方向： (1) 航空股——航油成本不可转嫁；(2) 南亚/东南亚出口制造业——能源进口依赖+汇率贬值双重冲击；(3) 高杠杆航运企业——虽然即期运价高，但长期租约锁定利润有限；(4) 欧洲化工——天然气及原油双重成本挤压。
• 情景分析：
  • 情景A（概率30%）：5月初美伊达成临时海峡通航协议 → 油价单日暴跌10-15%至80美元区间，AI科技主线不受影响，资金从能源股回流至成长股。
  • 情景B（概率50%）：封锁延续至6月，但规模有限 → 油价维持在90-105美元区间震荡，市场逐步消化溢价，东亚科技市场继续独立行情。
  • 情景C（概率20%）：冲突升级至沙特/阿联酋能源设施 → 油价突破120美元，全球经济衰退风险陡增，所有风险资产遭无差别抛售，包括AI科技股。

2. 俄乌战争 #

Latest: The conflict remains in a stalemate with no material market impact on Asian equities. European defense spending continues to rise, indirectly supporting global military-industrial complex valuations, but Asia’s direct exposure is limited.

最新态势： 俄乌冲突陷入僵局，对亚洲股市的直接影响有限。欧洲军费持续上升间接支撑全球军工估值，但亚洲市场的直接敞口较小。

3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #

Latest: US-China tariff tensions remain unresolved, though market attention has been fully diverted by the Iran war and AI capex cycle. The Trump administration’s tariff rhetoric on Chinese EVs, batteries, and solar components continues to cast a shadow over China’s export-oriented manufacturing sector, but the policy uncertainty premium is currently overshadowed by the energy risk premium.

最新态势： 中美关税紧张局势仍未解决，但市场注意力已被伊朗战争及AI资本支出周期完全转移。特朗普政府对中国电动汽车、电池及光伏组件的关税言论持续笼罩中国出口制造业，但目前政策不确定性溢价被能源风险溢价所掩盖。

关键主题 #

• AI vs. Oil: 平行世界行情：台韩股市完全无视霍尔木兹危机，资金将AI算力定义为与能源冲击脱钩的独立资产类别。
• 估值鸿沟：三星、SK海力士远期市盈率不足6倍，较美国芯片股折价超70%，本轮暴涨后仍处"价值陷阱还是深度价值"的争议区间。
• 海峡封锁常态化：市场已从"事件冲击"定价转向"结构性溢价"定价，即使封锁解除，供应链修复仍需数周。
• 南向资金分化：沪港通与深港通资金流向背离，显示内地投资者对港股大盘蓝筹与科技中小盘的偏好出现裂口。
• A股液冷信仰崩塌：英维克财报暴雷暴露AI基建产业链的微观盈利压力，概念炒作正面临业绩验证窗口。

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。