亚洲午盘 — 2026-04-16

市场概览 #

Asian equities rallied broadly on Wednesday as optimism mounted over a potential extension of the US-Iran ceasefire, with Trump declaring the war is “very close to over.” The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.2%, approaching pre-war levels. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was on track for a record close, erasing all losses accumulated since the conflict began in late February. Oil prices eased further as the Strait of Hormuz reopening remains on the table under the two-week truce brokered by Pakistan. Risk appetite was further supported by solid US corporate earnings overnight.

亚太股市周三全线走强，市场对美伊停火延期的乐观预期持续升温，特朗普称战争"即将结束"。MSCI 亚太指数上涨 1.2%，逼近战前水平。日经 225 指数向历史新高发起冲击，完全收复自 2 月底冲突以来的全部跌幅。在巴基斯坦斡旋的两周停火框架下，霍尔木兹海峡重新开放仍在谈判桌上，油价进一步回落。美股隔夜财报表现稳健，亦为风险偏好提供支撑。

指数表现 #

台湾 #

The TAIEX edged to a fresh record close of 35,457 on the previous session, supported by TSMC’s continued momentum. The semiconductor bellwether smashed its own closing record as AI chip demand remained robust. Market breadth was constructive, with tech and electronics leading gains. The stabilization fund has held off activation, signaling authorities see no immediate systemic risk despite elevated geopolitical volatility.

台湾加权指数前一交易日收于 35,457 点的历史新高，台积电持续走强，受 AI 芯片需求旺盛推动再创收盘纪录。市场内部结构健康，科技与电子板块领涨。国安基金暂不进场，显示当局认为尽管地缘政治波动较大，目前尚未出现系统性风险。

韩国 #

KOSPI surged 1.58% to 6,187.70, outperforming most regional peers. The index benefited from a broad risk-on rotation as ceasefire optimism drove foreign buying back into Korean equities. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led gains on the semiconductor sub-index. The Korean won stabilized around the 1,400 level against the dollar, easing pressure on export-oriented names.

KOSPI 大涨 1.58% 至 6,187.70 点，表现优于大多数区域市场。停火乐观预期推动外资回流韩国股市，风险偏好全面回升。三星电子和 SK 海力士领涨半导体板块。韩元兑美元在 1,400 附近企稳，出口导向型企业的汇率压力有所缓解。

日本 #

The Nikkei 225 was on track for a record close, rising approximately 1% to above 58,400, erasing all losses from the Iran war that began in late February. Bloomberg reported the index was set to close at an all-time high. The broader Topix added 0.8% to around 3,785. A weaker yen (USD/JPY near 159) continued to support exporters, while defense and energy names gave back some of their war-premium gains as ceasefire hopes mounted.

日经 225 指数上涨约 1% 至 58,400 点上方，有望创下历史新高收盘，完全收复 2 月底伊朗战争以来的全部失地。据 Bloomberg 报道，该指数有望以历史最高点收盘。东证指数涨 0.8% 至约 3,785 点。日元走弱（美元/日元接近 159）继续支撑出口商，而随着停火预期升温，国防和能源股回吐部分战争溢价涨幅。

香港 #

The Hang Seng Index rallied 1.38% to 26,306.55, building on the prior session’s gains. Internet and platform economy names led the charge, with the KWEB ETF gaining 0.92% overnight in US trading. Property developers saw selective buying as mainland policy easing expectations resurfaced. Trading volume improved, suggesting institutional participation rather than purely retail-driven moves.

恒生指数上涨 1.38% 至 26,306.55 点，延续前一交易日的涨势。互联网和平台经济股领涨，中概互联网 ETF (KWEB) 隔夜在美股市场上涨 0.92%。内房股出现选择性买入，市场重新押注内地政策宽松预期。成交量有所放大，显示机构参与度提升，而非纯散户驱动。

中国 #

The Shanghai Composite gained 0.53% to 4,048.64, underperforming the broader region as investors remained cautious ahead of key economic data releases. Market breadth was positive with 984 stocks advancing versus 493 declining on the Shanghai board and 1,249 up versus 429 down on the Shenzhen board. The CSI 300 outperformed with a 1.55% gain to 4,790.69, driven by large-cap financials and real estate. The domestic computing power theme remained active, with analysts highlighting the sector’s entry into a volume-driven upcycle.

上证综指上涨 0.53% 至 4,048.64 点，表现弱于区域整体。投资者在关键经济数据发布前保持谨慎。市场内部涨多跌少，沪市上涨 984 家、下跌 493 家，深市上涨 1,249 家、下跌 429 家。沪深 300 表现亮眼，上涨 1.55% 至 4,790.69 点，大盘金融和地产股领涨。国产算力主题持续活跃，分析师指出该板块正步入放量主升周期。

资金流向 #

北向资金 #

Northbound flows via Stock Connect were flat on the session, with both the Shanghai and Shenzhen channels recording zero net buying. This suggests foreign institutional investors are watching from the sidelines despite the risk-on tone, potentially awaiting clearer signals on the ceasefire extension before committing fresh capital.

北向资金当日录得零净买入，沪股通和深股通均无实质流入。尽管市场整体风险偏好回升，外资机构仍在观望，可能在等待停火延期的更明确信号后才会重新配置。

南向资金 #

Southbound flows showed a mixed picture: the Shanghai-Hong Kong channel saw a modest net sell of 0.72 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen-Hong Kong channel recorded net buying of 1.42 billion yuan, for a combined net inflow of approximately 0.70 billion yuan into Hong Kong equities. Quota utilization was 420 billion yuan on both channels.

南向资金表现分化: 港股通(沪)小幅净卖出 0.72 亿元，港股通(深)净买入 1.42 亿元，合计净流入港股约 0.70 亿元。两个通道额度使用均为 420 亿元。

汇率与宏观 #

Gold remained elevated near $4,830/oz, just below one-month highs, supported by a weaker dollar and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Oil prices continued their pullback from March highs (when Brent briefly exceeded $100/bbl), with WTI settling around $91 as ceasefire optimism weighed on the war premium. The dollar index slipped to a six-week low near 100, pressured by easing inflation expectations and the prospect of a de-escalation in the Middle East.

黄金维持在 $4,830/盎司附近的高位，接近一个月新高，受美元走弱和地缘政治不确定性支撑。油价延续自 3 月高点（布伦特一度突破 $100/桶）以来的回调，WTI 稳定在约 $91，停火乐观预期压制战争溢价。美元指数下滑至六周低位约 100，受通胀预期缓和和中东局势降级前景压制。

地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #

1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡 #

Latest developments: The two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 7 remains in effect, with the truce set to expire on April 22. Trump declared on April 15 that the war is “very close to over” and that Iran wants a deal. However, key disagreements persist: the first round of Islamabad talks failed to produce an agreement, and the US has not formally committed to extending the ceasefire. Meanwhile, Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade, announced on April 12 after peace talks stalled, added a new layer of pressure. Iran’s demands include control of the Strait, war reparations, and a regional ceasefire covering Lebanon.

最新态势: 4 月 7 日巴基斯坦斡旋的两周停火仍在执行中，将于 4 月 22 日到期。特朗普 4 月 15 日称战争"即将结束"，伊朗希望达成协议。但关键分歧仍存: 伊斯兰堡首轮谈判未能达成共识，美方尚未正式承诺延长停火。特朗普 4 月 12 日在和谈陷入僵局后宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡，施加新一层压力。伊朗的要求包括控制海峡、战争赔偿和覆盖黎巴嫩的地区停火。

The conflict has killed more than 4,000 people across the Middle East since late February, overwhelmingly in Iran and Lebanon.

关键时间节点: 4 月 22 日停火到期日。若未能延期或达成进一步协议，油价可能重新冲击 $100/桶，亚太市场将面临显著回调压力。

2. 俄乌战争 #

The conflict continues with no significant change in the frontline situation. European defense stocks remain elevated. Sanctions enforcement and energy substitution remain key themes for European markets, with limited direct impact on Asian equities this session.

俄乌冲突前线态势无重大变化，欧洲国防股维持高位。制裁执行和能源替代仍是欧洲市场的核心主题，对本交易日亚洲股市直接影响有限。

3. 全球关税/贸易 #

China’s export data for March missed estimates according to CNBC reports earlier this week, adding a note of caution on the trade outlook. No new tariff escalation was reported this session.

据 CNBC 本周早些时候报道，中国 3 月出口数据不及预期，为贸易前景增添一丝谨慎。本交易日未见新的关税升级。

专家研判 #

相对受益方向:

• 半导体/AI 芯片: TSMC(2330.TW), SK Hynix(000660.KS), 中芯国际(0981.HK) - 风险偏好修复 + AI 基本面
• 互联网平台: 腾讯(0700.HK), 阿里(9988.HK), 美团(3690.HK) - 估值修复 + 消费预期
• 国产算力: 中科曙光(603019), 浪潮信息(000977) - 政策驱动放量周期
• 消费复苏: 贵州茅台(600519), 李宁(2331.HK) - 油价下行利好消费信心

需要回避方向:

• 纯油气上游: 战争溢价快速回吐中，短期承压
• 航运/油运: 海峡通航恢复将压制运费
• 高位军工股: 和平预期兑现，短期获利了结压力大

情景分析 (4月22日停火到期):

关键主题 #

• 美伊停火延期: 4 月 22 日到期日成为近期最大事件风险，市场提前定价和平概率
• 日经创纪录: Nikkei 225 有望收于历史最高，完全收复战争跌幅，日本股市重估逻辑不变
• 国产算力主升: A 股算力板块步入放量周期，主观资金对地缘冲突形成情绪脱敏
• 油价持续回落: WTI 从 3 月高点大幅回调，若海峡恢复通航将进一步下行
• 黄金逼近新高: $4,830 附近震荡，美元走弱 + 不确定性持续 = 贵金属高位有支撑

本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, Al Jazeera, Trading Economics, OilPrice, 东方财富