亚洲午盘 — 2026-04-14
市场概览 #
亚洲市场周一全线走强,无视上周末美伊谈判再度破裂的利空。KOSPI 以 +3.56% 领涨全区,日经和台股涨幅均超 2%,港股和 A 股相对克制但仍录得正收益。主要驱动因素有三: 一是上周五美股已经消化了伊朗战争以来的全部跌幅,风险偏好有所修复; 二是油价从高位回落(WTI 跌破 97 美元),缓解了通胀预期; 三是韩国芯片超级周期持续发酵,SK 海力士盘中突破 113 万韩元创历史新高,带动整个半导体板块上行。
指数表现 #
| 指数 | 收盘/最新 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 台湾加权 (TAIEX) | 36,229.36 | +772.07 | +2.18% |
| 韩国综合 (KOSPI) | 6,015.41 | +206.79 | +3.56% |
| 日经225 | 57,891.81 | +1,389.04 | +2.46% |
| 恒生指数 (HSI) | 25,770.40 | +109.55 | +0.43% |
| 沪深300 | 4,685.05 | +38.89 | +0.84% |
| 上证综指 | 4,010.45 | +21.89 | +0.55% |
| 深证成指 | 14,603.34 | +195.48 | +1.36% |
台湾 #
TAIEX surged 2.18% to 36,229, reclaiming the 36,000 level as semiconductor heavyweights led the charge. The rally was broad-based — the index traded in a wide range of 35,584 to 36,323, with buyers stepping in aggressively near the lows. TSMC likely contributed the bulk of the index move, riding the global AI capex cycle and benefiting from the US Section 122 tariff exemptions on select electronics. TWD strengthened 0.5% against the dollar to 31.61, reflecting renewed foreign inflows into the tech sector.
台股大涨 2.18% 至 36,229 点,重新站上 36,000 关口,半导体权重股领涨。盘中波动较大,低点 35,584 至高点 36,323,买盘在低位积极介入。台积电可能贡献了大部分涨幅,受益于全球 AI 资本开支周期以及美国 Section 122 关税对部分电子产品的豁免。新台币兑美元升值 0.5% 至 31.61,反映外资重新流入科技板块。
韩国 #
KOSPI exploded 3.56% higher to 6,015 — comfortably above the psychological 6,000 barrier for the first time in recent sessions. The memory chip supercycle remains the dominant narrative: SK Hynix broke through KRW 1.1 million intraday to hit a record KRW 1.13 million, powered by insatiable HBM demand from hyperscalers. Samsung Electronics likely saw strong sympathy buying. Foreign investors, who had been heavy sellers through February and March, have turned net buyers this month, providing a significant tailwind. The KOSPI is now up roughly 47% year-to-date — one of the best-performing major indices globally. Korean won was marginally firmer at 1,480.98 per dollar.
KOSPI 暴涨 3.56% 至 6,015 点,轻松站上 6,000 心理关口。存储芯片超级周期仍是核心叙事: SK 海力士盘中突破 110 万韩元,创下 113 万韩元的历史新高,受超大规模客户对 HBM 的旺盛需求驱动。三星电子也可能获得联动买盘。外资在经历 2-3 月的大幅抛售后,本月已转为净买入,提供重要上行动力。KOSPI 年初至今累计上涨约 47%,是全球表现最好的主要指数之一。韩元小幅走强至 1,480.98。
日本 #
Nikkei 225 jumped 2.46% to 57,892, trading in a range of 57,010 to 57,980. The rally was supported by the broader risk-on tone across Asia, yen weakness (USD/JPY at 159.07, down only 0.38% — still elevated), and expectations that corporate earnings season starting this week will confirm strong profit growth. Japanese exporters benefited from the still-weak yen despite today’s marginal strengthening. The oil price pullback (WTI -2.21%) was a net positive for Japan as an energy importer, reducing cost pressures on manufacturers and utilities.
日经 225 大涨 2.46% 至 57,892 点,盘中波幅为 57,010 至 57,980。上涨受到亚洲整体风险偏好回暖、日元弱势(美元/日元 159.07,仍处高位)以及本周开启的财报季将确认强劲盈利增长预期的三重支撑。日元虽今日小幅走强,但仍处于偏弱水平,有利于出口企业。油价回落(WTI -2.21%)对日本这个能源进口大国而言是净利好,缓解了制造业和公用事业的成本压力。
香港 #
HSI eked out a modest 0.43% gain to 25,770, underperforming regional peers. The index traded in a tight range of 25,749 to 25,995, unable to hold above 26,000. The relative underperformance reflects lingering caution around US-China trade friction — the 10% Section 122 tariff remains in effect through July 24, and a 25% tariff on AI-critical semiconductors imposed in January continues to weigh on tech sentiment. Southbound flows were positive: combined net buying through Shanghai and Shenzhen connect reached approximately HKD 7.9 billion, suggesting mainland investors are selectively accumulating on dips.
恒指仅微涨 0.43% 至 25,770 点,跑输区域同行。盘中窄幅波动于 25,749 至 25,995,未能守住 26,000 上方。相对弱势反映出市场对中美贸易摩擦的持续谨慎: 10% 的 Section 122 关税将持续至 7 月 24 日,1 月实施的 25% AI 芯片关税继续压制科技股情绪。南向资金表现积极: 沪深港股通合计净买入约 79 亿港元,显示内地投资者在逢低选择性建仓。
中国 #
A-shares delivered mixed but net positive results. CSI 300 rose 0.84% to 4,685, Shanghai Composite added 0.55% to 4,010 (holding above the key 4,000 level), and the SZSE Component outperformed with a 1.36% gain to 14,603. Sector fund flows tell the story: electronics (+2.03B), semiconductors (+2.9B), consumer electronics (+1.59B), and components (+2.98B) saw strong net inflows, while rare earths (-3.12B) and pharma (-0.51B) experienced outflows. The tech-heavy Shenzhen board’s outperformance aligns with the semiconductor inflow theme. Breadth was positive — 795 advancers vs 700 decliners on the Shanghai board, 992 vs 680 on Shenzhen. CNY firmed 0.17% to 6.82 per dollar.
A 股涨跌不一但整体收红。沪深 300 涨 0.84% 至 4,685,上证综指涨 0.55% 至 4,010(守住 4,000 整数关口),深证成指表现突出,涨 1.36% 至 14,603。板块资金流向揭示结构: 电子(+20.3 亿)、半导体(+29 亿)、消费电子(+15.9 亿)、元件(+29.8 亿)录得强劲净流入,而稀土(-31.2 亿)和医药(-5.1 亿)遭遇资金流出。深市的领涨与半导体资金流入主题一致。个股涨跌面积极,沪市 795 涨 vs 700 跌,深市 992 涨 vs 680 跌。人民币升值 0.17% 至 6.82。
资金流向 #
北向资金 #
沪股通和深股通今日净买入/净流出数据显示为零,可能反映数据采集时点尚在盘中或结算延迟。从个股涨跌比看,沪市涨跌比 795:700,深市 992:680,整体偏多。
南向资金 #
| 通道 | 净买入(亿港元) | 额度使用(亿港元) |
|---|---|---|
| 港股通(沪) | 7.39 | 420.00 |
| 港股通(深) | 0.49 | 420.00 |
| 合计 | 7.89 | — |
南向资金合计净买入约 7.89 亿港元,连续流入态势不减,内地资金继续增持港股。
A 股板块资金流向 #
| 板块 | 净流入(亿元) | 方向 |
|---|---|---|
| 元件 | +2.98 | 流入 |
| 半导体 | +2.90 | 流入 |
| 电子 | +2.03 | 流入 |
| 消费电子 | +1.59 | 流入 |
| 消费电子零部件 | +1.49 | 流入 |
| 计算机 | +1.00 | 流入 |
| 公用事业 | -0.25 | 流出 |
| 基础化工 | -0.33 | 流出 |
| 医药生物 | -0.51 | 流出 |
| 稀土 | -3.12 | 流出 |
半导体和电子产业链资金净流入居前,稀土板块遭遇最大净流出。
汇率与宏观 #
| 品种 | 价格 | 涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|
| 美元/日元 | 159.07 | -0.38% |
| 美元/人民币 | 6.82 | -0.17% |
| 美元/韩元 | 1,480.98 | -0.08% |
| 美元/台币 | 31.61 | -0.50% |
| 黄金 | $4,795.90 | +1.13% |
| WTI 原油 | $96.89 | -2.21% |
| 美元指数 (DXY) | 98.32 | -0.05% |
| 美国 10Y 收益率 | 4.30% | -0.46% |
美元指数在 98.32 徘徊,接近年内低点。黄金续创新高逼近 $4,800,反映避险需求与美元弱势的双重驱动。WTI 原油跌 2.21% 至 $96.89,尽管霍尔木兹海峡封锁仍在持续,但市场押注美伊最终达成协议的预期压制了油价。美债 10Y 收益率小幅回落至 4.30%,资金从债市流向风险资产。
地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #
1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡危机 #
最新态势:
The US-Iran two-week ceasefire, announced on April 8 after Trump backed off his threat to obliterate Iran, collapsed over the weekend as negotiations broke down. Despite this, markets are trading with a glass-half-full mentality — the S&P 500 erased all losses since the war began on February 28. Oil prices are pulling back from extreme levels (Dated Brent hit $144 in the physical market last week) as the market prices in an eventual deal. The US Navy blockade of Iranian ports remains in effect, with Trump ordering interdiction of any ship paying Iran tolls to transit the Strait. WTI is down 2.21% today at $96.89.
4 月 8 日宣布的美伊两周停火协议在周末谈判破裂后瓦解。尽管如此,市场以"半杯水满"的心态交易: 标普 500 已收复自 2 月 28 日战争爆发以来的全部失地。油价从极端高位回落(上周现货 Dated Brent 一度触及 $144),市场正在定价最终达成协议的预期。美国海军对伊朗港口的封锁仍在持续,特朗普下令拦截任何向伊朗支付过境费的船只。WTI 今日跌 2.21% 至 $96.89。
| 板块 | 影响 | 代表标的 | 逻辑 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 石油开采 | 📈 | 中国海油(0883.HK)、中国石油(601857) | 油价虽回落仍处高位,上游盈利丰厚 |
| 航运/油运 | 📈 | 招商南油(601975)、COSCO Shipping | 绕道好望角推高运价,运力紧张 |
| 航空 | 📉 | 国泰航空(0293.HK)、南方航空(1055.HK) | 燃油成本高企压缩利润率 |
| 新能源/光伏 | 📈 | 隆基绿能(601012)、阳光电源(300274) | 高油价加速能源转型逻辑 |
| 消费/零售 | 📉 | 永辉超市(601933) | 输入性通胀侵蚀消费力 |
| 国防军工 | 📈 | 中航沈飞(600760)、三菱重工(7011.T) | 地缘紧张推动军费增长 |
关键时间节点: 美伊谈判预计本周内重启,市场关注是否能达成新的停火框架。若谈判再度失败,油价可能重新测试 $110+。
2. 俄乌战争 #
最新态势:
The Orthodox Easter ceasefire (April 11-12) was extensively violated — 2,299 breaches recorded including 28 assault actions and 479 shellings. Russia claims full control of Luhansk region. Fighting has reached near-stalemate with Russia making incremental gains at enormous cost (estimated 1.31 million Russian casualties total). Market impact has diminished as the conflict enters its fifth year with no resolution in sight.
东正教复活节停火(4 月 11-12 日)遭大规模违反,记录到 2,299 次违规,包括 28 次突击行动和 479 次炮击。俄罗斯宣称完全控制卢甘斯克地区。战线已接近僵局,俄罗斯以巨大代价(累计约 131 万人伤亡)取得微小进展。随着冲突进入第五年,其对市场的边际影响已经钝化。
| 板块 | 影响 | 代表标的 | 逻辑 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 欧洲军工 | 📈 | 莱茵金属(RHM.DE)、BAE Systems | 欧洲军费占 GDP 比重持续上升 |
| 粮食/化肥 | 中性 | 中化国际(600500) | 黑海粮食通道已基本恢复,冲击减弱 |
| 核电 | 📈 | 中国广核(003816) | 能源安全叙事驱动核电重启 |
3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #
最新态势:
The tariff landscape has shifted significantly since the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs in February 2026 (6-3 ruling). Trump immediately pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act, imposing a 10% global tariff for 150 days (through July 24). Additionally, a 25% tariff on AI-critical semiconductors took effect January 15 under Section 232. The Court of International Trade heard new challenges on April 10. Select electronics (smartphones, flat panels, ICs) are exempt from the baseline tariff. China’s Jan-Feb exports surged 21.8% YoY to $656.6B despite tariff headwinds, driven by chips, ships, and autos.
关税格局自 2 月最高法院推翻 IEEPA 关税(6:3 裁决)后发生重大变化。特朗普立即转向《贸易法》第 122 条,对全球征收 10% 关税,为期 150 天(至 7 月 24 日届满)。此外,1 月 15 日起对 AI 关键半导体征收 25% 关税(Section 232)。国际贸易法院 4 月 10 日开庭审理新一轮挑战。部分电子产品(智能手机、平板显示模组、集成电路)获得豁免。中国 1-2 月出口逆势增长 21.8% 至 $6,566 亿,芯片、船舶和汽车驱动。
| 板块 | 影响 | 代表标的 | 逻辑 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 半导体设备 | 📉 | 北方华创(002371)、东京电子(8035.T) | 25% AI 芯片关税增加供应链成本 |
| 消费电子 | 📈 | 苹果供应链、立讯精密(002475) | 电子产品豁免基线关税,短期利好 |
| 出口导向制造 | 📉 | 通用出口企业 | 10% 全球关税压缩利润率 |
| 船舶 | 📈 | 中国船舶(600150) | 中国船舶出口强劲,订单饱满 |
关键时间节点: 7 月 24 日 Section 122 关税到期,届时需国会批准延续或总统另寻法律依据。4 月 14 日商务部和 USTR 将提交贸易谈判首份进展报告。
专家研判 #
相对受益方向:
- 存储芯片 (SK 海力士、三星): HBM 超级周期,AI 资本开支不减
- 油运/航运 (招商南油、COSCO): 霍尔木兹封锁推高运价
- 新能源 (隆基、阳光电源): 高油价加速替代逻辑
- 黄金/贵金属 (山东黄金、紫金矿业): 避险+弱美元双驱动,金价逼近 $4,800
- 国防军工 (中航沈飞、三菱重工): 多线冲突推动全球军费扩张
需要回避方向:
- 航空公司: 燃油成本居高不下,利润率承压
- 纯出口型制造: 10% 全球关税+地缘不确定性
- 稀土: 今日资金大幅流出 -31.2 亿,短期回避
- 高估值成长股: 利率环境偏紧,估值扩张空间有限
情景分析 (未来一周):
| 情景 | 概率 | 市场影响 |
|---|---|---|
| 美伊重启谈判并达成新框架 | 40% | 油价跌至 $85-90,风险资产全面反弹,航空/消费受益 |
| 谈判僵持,维持现状 | 45% | 油价 $95-100 区间震荡,市场窄幅波动,结构性行情 |
| 谈判彻底破裂,军事升级 | 15% | 油价冲击 $120+,避险资产暴涨,股市大幅回调 |
关键主题 #
- 芯片超级周期加速: KOSPI 年涨 47%,SK 海力士创历史新高,A 股半导体板块资金净流入近 30 亿
- 伊朗变量钝化: 市场正在适应"有冲突但会谈判"的新常态,风险溢价逐步消化
- 油价回落但仍处高位: WTI $96.89 远高于战前水平,对亚洲能源进口国的通胀压力持续
- 美元弱势格局确立: DXY 98.32 接近年内低点,亚洲货币集体走强,有利于外资回流
- 关税法律博弈进入关键期: Section 122 合法性面临法院审查,7 月到期后政策走向高度不确定
本报告数据来源于公开市场信息,分析内容为编辑团队观点,不构成投资建议。