亚洲午盘 — 2026-04-10
市场概览 #
亚太股市周四全线收涨,延续本周美伊停火协议后的修复行情。日经225涨1.82%领跑,KOSPI涨1.66%紧随,台湾加权涨1.22%,沪深300涨1.18%,恒生指数涨幅相对温和(+0.60%)。市场情绪受两大因素驱动: 一是美伊停火谈判预计周末在巴基斯坦举行,投资者提前布局风险资产; 二是TSMC今日公布3月营收数据,半导体板块获得额外提振。不过,霍尔木兹海峡实际通航状态仍不明朗,WTI原油维持在98美元上方,黄金站稳4790美元,避险定价尚未完全解除。
指数表现 #
| 指数 | 收盘/最新 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 台湾加权 (TAIEX) | 35,287.01 | +425.85 | +1.22% |
| 韩国综合 (KOSPI) | 5,874.08 | +96.07 | +1.66% |
| 日经225 | 56,910.35 | +1,015.03 | +1.82% |
| 恒生指数 (HSI) | 25,907.96 | +155.56 | +0.60% |
| 沪深300 | 4,620.14 | +53.92 | +1.18% |
| 上证综指 | 3,991.14 | +24.97 | +0.63% |
| 深证成指 | 14,239.89 | +243.62 | +1.74% |
台湾 #
Taiwan’s TAIEX rose 1.22% to 35,287 on broad-based buying, with semiconductor stocks again doing the heavy lifting. TSMC (2330.TW) was in focus as the company is scheduled to report March revenue today — a critical data point for gauging whether AI chip demand is sustaining its torrid pace or hitting supply-side constraints (energy disruptions, helium shortages). The index has outperformed major US benchmarks year-to-date, up nearly 11% in 2026, driven almost entirely by the local semiconductor supply chain. Intraday range was tight (34,951–35,356), suggesting conviction buying rather than short-covering.
台湾加权指数涨1.22%至35,287点,半导体板块继续扮演主力。TSMC(台积电)今日公布3月营收,这是判断AI芯片需求能否持续高增长还是触及供给瓶颈(电力中断、氦气短缺)的关键数据点。台股年初至今涨幅约11%,远超美股主要指数,几乎完全由本地半导体供应链推动。日内波幅较窄(34,951–35,356),显示买盘以主动建仓为主而非空头回补。
韩国 #
KOSPI gained 1.66% to 5,874, building on Wednesday’s ceasefire-driven momentum but at a more measured pace — a far cry from the 6%+ circuit-breaker-triggering surge on April 1. Export-oriented tech and auto names led, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix benefiting from the broader semiconductor tailwind. The won held steady at 1,477.76/USD, providing a stable FX backdrop for foreign flows. Breadth was solid: 1,408 advancers vs 288 decliners on the KOSDAQ, signaling risk appetite extending well beyond mega-caps.
KOSPI涨1.66%至5,874点,延续周三停火驱动的上涨势头但节奏更为克制,远不及4月1日触发熔断机制的6%+暴涨。出口导向的科技和汽车股领涨,三星电子和SK海力士受半导体整体利好提振。韩元稳定在1,477.76/美元,为外资流入提供稳定的汇率环境。市场广度良好: KOSDAQ上涨家数1,408对下跌288,表明风险偏好已从大盘蓝筹扩散至中小盘。
日本 #
Nikkei 225 surged 1.82% to 56,910, the session’s top performer among major Asian indices. The index traded within a 686-point range (56,251–56,938), with buying accelerating into the afternoon session. The rally was broad — exporters benefited from a weaker yen (USD/JPY at 159.15, +0.32%) while domestics rode the ceasefire optimism. Japan remains a key beneficiary of any normalization in Hormuz shipping lanes given its near-total dependence on Middle East crude imports. The Nikkei has recovered sharply from its March lows when the Iran conflict triggered a wave of de-grossing across Asia.
日经225大涨1.82%至56,910点,为当日亚洲主要指数中表现最强。指数日内波动686点(56,251–56,938),午后买盘明显加速。涨势全面: 出口企业受益于日元走弱(美元/日元159.15,+0.32%),内需股则搭上停火乐观情绪的顺风车。鉴于日本几乎完全依赖中东原油进口,霍尔木兹海峡通航正常化将使日本成为最大受益者之一。日经从3月伊朗冲突引发的亚洲去杠杆潮低点已大幅反弹。
香港 #
HSI edged up 0.60% to 25,908, underperforming regional peers. The index briefly touched 26,074 before fading, suggesting profit-taking after Wednesday’s 3.1% jump. Tech names were mixed — Tencent (0700.HK) and Meituan (3690.HK) held gains from the prior session but lacked fresh catalysts. SMIC (0981.HK) and semiconductor-related names saw continued interest on the back of global chip momentum. The muted performance likely reflects Hong Kong’s unique exposure: closer to China’s measured stimulus approach than to the pure ceasefire trade driving Tokyo and Seoul.
恒生指数小涨0.60%至25,908点,跑输区域同行。指数盘中触及26,074后回落,显示周三3.1%大涨后有获利了结压力。科技股涨跌互现,腾讯(0700.HK)和美团(3690.HK)守住前日涨幅但缺乏新催化剂。中芯国际(0981.HK)等半导体相关标的在全球芯片行情带动下持续受到关注。恒指相对疲软可能反映港股的独特定位: 更贴近中国审慎刺激政策的节奏,而非纯粹的停火交易逻辑。
中国 #
CSI 300 rose 1.18% to 4,620, with the Shenzhen Component outperforming (+1.74%) as growth/tech names led. The Shanghai Composite lagged at +0.63%, dragged by financials and energy. Market breadth was decisively bullish: on the Shanghai board, 1,166 stocks advanced vs 342 declined; Shenzhen was even stronger at 1,408 up vs 288 down. The session marks a continuation of the gradual recovery from the Iran-conflict induced sell-off, though volumes remain below the January highs when policy stimulus expectations were at their peak.
沪深300涨1.18%至4,620点,深证成指表现更优(+1.74%),成长/科技股领涨。上证综指涨幅较小(+0.63%),金融和能源板块拖累。市场广度显著偏多: 沪市上涨1,166家对下跌342家,深市更为强劲(1,408家上涨对288家下跌)。行情延续了伊朗冲突引发抛售后的渐进修复趋势,不过成交量仍低于1月份政策刺激预期最高峰时的水平。
资金流向 #
北向资金 #
| 通道 | 净买入(亿元) | 对应指数 | 指数涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 沪股通 | 暂无数据 | 上证指数 | +0.63% |
| 深股通 | 暂无数据 | 深证成指 | +1.74% |
今日北向资金净流入数据尚未完整披露(午盘快照显示为零,全日数据待收盘后确认)。从市场广度看,沪深两市涨多跌少,外资大概率维持净流入态势。
南向资金 #
| 通道 | 净买入(亿港元) | 对应指数 | 指数涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 港股通(沪) | 9.23 | 恒生指数 | +0.60% |
| 港股通(深) | 5.90 | 恒生指数 | +0.60% |
南向资金合计净买入约15.13亿港元,反映内地资金对港股仍保持温和配置意愿。港股涨364家跌203家,资金面偏积极。
汇率与宏观 #
| 品种 | 价格 | 涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|
| 美元/日元 | 159.15 | +0.32% |
| 美元/人民币 | 6.83 | +0.02% |
| 美元/韩元 | 1,477.76 | +0.01% |
| 美元/台币 | 31.73 | +0.02% |
| 黄金 | $4,794.10 | +0.04% |
| WTI原油 | $98.04 | +0.17% |
| 美元指数 | 98.86 | +0.04% |
| 美国10Y收益率 | 4.29% | +0.05% |
黄金维持在$4,794高位,反映地缘风险溢价尚未消退。WTI原油在$98附近窄幅整理,距停火消息前的$100+有所回落但远高于冲突前水平。美元指数持平于98.86,亚洲货币整体稳定。
地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #
1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡危机 #
最新态势: The two-week US-Iran ceasefire, brokered after weeks of air strikes following the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei on Feb 28, remains fragile. Weekend talks in Pakistan are expected to address Hormuz reopening, but the strait is effectively still under Iranian IRGC control. UAE’s state oil CEO confirmed “the Strait of Hormuz is not open” — Iran is requiring ships to obtain permission to transit. Oil traffic was briefly resumed on April 8 before being halted again after Israel struck targets in Lebanon. Trump and Netanyahu have explicitly excluded Lebanon from the ceasefire terms.
美伊两周停火协议仍然脆弱。自2月28日美以空袭致伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊死亡以来,双方经历了数周军事对峙后达成停火。周末将在巴基斯坦举行谈判,预计讨论海峡重新开放问题。但霍尔木兹海峡实际上仍在伊朗革命卫队控制之下。阿联酋国家石油公司CEO确认"海峡并未开放",伊朗要求船只获得许可才能通过。4月8日短暂恢复的油轮通行在以色列袭击黎巴嫩目标后再次中断。特朗普和内塔尼亚胡已明确将黎巴嫩排除在停火条款之外。
| 板块 | 影响方向 | 代表标的 | 逻辑 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 油气/能源 | 📈 | PetroChina(601857), CNOOC(0883.HK), Inpex(1605.T) | 供给中断风险溢价维持 |
| 航运/油运 | 📈 | COSCO Shipping Energy(1138.HK), 招商轮船(601872) | 运力紧张,运价高企 |
| 军工/国防 | 📈 | 三菱重工(7011.T), 韩华航空航天(012450.KS), 中航沈飞(600760) | 地缘紧张持续推升防务开支 |
| 航空 | 📉 | 国泰航空(0293.HK), 大韩航空(003490.KS), ANA(9202.T) | 燃油成本高企压缩利润 |
| 石化/化工 | 📉 | 万华化学(600309), LG化学(051910.KS) | 原材料成本传导不畅 |
| 消费/零售 | 📉 | 永辉超市(601933), Seven & i(3382.T) | 能源通胀侵蚀消费力 |
关键时间节点: 本周末巴基斯坦停火谈判;伊朗45天延长停火提案(已被伊朗拒绝,或有新方案)。
专家研判:
- 相对受益: 油气上游(供给溢价)、油运(运价)、军工(防务预算)、黄金(避险)、煤炭(替代能源)
- 需要回避: 航空(燃油成本)、远洋渔业(航线受限)、依赖中东供应链的制造业、高能耗出口企业
- 情景分析:
- 基准情景(50%): 周末谈判取得有限进展,海峡部分恢复通航,油价回落至$90-95区间,亚股温和上涨
- 乐观情景(20%): 达成明确通航协议,油价快速回落至$85以下,日经/KOSPI再涨3-5%
- 悲观情景(30%): 谈判破裂或以色列扩大黎巴嫩行动,油价冲击$110+,亚股回吐本周涨幅
2. 俄乌战争 #
最新态势: The conflict continues into its fourth year. In a notable policy shift, the Trump administration partially rolled back Russia oil sanctions in March amid soaring energy prices linked to the Iran war, drawing sharp criticism from Ukraine and EU allies. The EU extended its sanctions against Russia for six more months until July 2026 and added new individuals to its sanctions list. February 2026 was the first month since 2024 where Ukraine regained more territory than it lost, suggesting a modest shift in battlefield momentum.
冲突进入第四年。值得关注的是,特朗普政府3月在伊朗战争导致能源价格飙升的背景下部分放松了对俄油制裁,遭到乌克兰和欧盟盟友强烈批评。欧盟将对俄制裁延长至2026年7月,并新增制裁名单。2026年2月是自2024年以来乌克兰首次收复领土多于失去的月份,战场态势出现微妙变化。
| 板块 | 影响方向 | 代表标的 | 逻辑 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 欧洲军工(间接) | 📈 | 欧洲防务ETF, 韩华系统(272210.KS) | 欧洲军费持续扩张,韩国军工出口受益 |
| 粮食/化肥 | 📈 | 中化国际(600500), 湖北宜化(000422) | 黑海粮食通道不确定性 |
| 天然气 | 📉→中性 | — | 美国放松俄油制裁缓解部分供给压力 |
3. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #
最新态势: On April 2, Trump signed new Section 232 tariffs: tiered duties on steel/aluminum/copper (maintaining 50% on many products) and up to 100% tariffs on patented pharmaceutical imports, effective April 6. The Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs in February, forcing the administration to pivot to Section 301 investigations. Meanwhile, global trade is increasingly bypassing the US — new bilateral trade deals are being signed almost daily without American participation.
4月2日,特朗普签署新的232条款关税: 对钢铁/铝/铜实施分级关税(多数产品维持50%),对专利药品进口征收最高100%关税,4月6日生效。最高法院2月否决了IEEPA关税,迫使政府转向301调查。与此同时,全球贸易正越来越多地绕开美国,几乎每天都有不含美国参与的新双边贸易协定签署。
| 板块 | 影响方向 | 代表标的 | 逻辑 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 钢铁(出口美国) | 📉 | POSCO(005490.KS), 日本制铁(5401.T) | 50%关税持续压制对美出口 |
| 医药/生物(出口美国) | 📉 | 药明生物(2269.HK), 三星生物(207940.KS) | 专利药100%关税新风险 |
| 内需消费(亚洲) | 📈 | — | 区域贸易深化利好亚洲内循环 |
关键主题 #
- 霍尔木兹困局: 停火名义达成但海峡实际未开放,周末巴基斯坦谈判是短期最大变量
- TSMC 3月营收: 今日公布,市场关注AI需求是否触及供给天花板(能源/氦气约束)
- 美国关税重构: Section 232分级关税+药品100%关税生效,亚洲出口企业需重新评估对美敞口
- 日元持续走弱: USD/JPY突破159,日本出口企业汇兑收益可观但进口通胀压力加大
- 油价高位拉锯: WTI在$98窄幅整理,距冲突前水平仍有30%+溢价,能源通胀远未结束
本报告数据来源于公开市场信息,分析内容为编辑团队观点,不构成投资建议。