亚洲午盘 — 2026-04-09
市场概览 #
昨日美伊停火协议引爆的亚太狂欢仅持续了一个交易日。伊朗国会议长 Ghalibaf 指控美方已违反停火框架三项条款, IRGC 声称霍尔木兹海峡航运再次中断 (白宫否认), 叠加伊朗要求过往船只缴纳通行费的报道, 市场风险偏好急速降温。WTI 原油反弹 3.2% 至 $97.45, 亚太主要指数普遍回落, 前一日领涨的韩国 KOSPI 今日领跌 1.56%。A 股跌多涨少, 沪市仅 319 只个股上涨, 1,204 只下跌, 市场广度极弱。
指数表现 #
| 指数 | 收盘/最新 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 台湾加权 (TAIEX) | 34,713.17 | -280.00 | -0.80% |
| 韩国综合 (KOSPI) | 5,780.74 | -91.60 | -1.56% |
| 日经225 | 55,879.53 | -428.89 | -0.76% |
| 恒生指数 (HSI) | 25,801.87 | -90.67 | -0.35% |
| 沪深300 | 4,566.22 | -25.21 | -0.55% |
| 上证综指 | 3,965.70 | -29.16 | -0.73% |
| 深证成指 | 13,999.55 | -43.49 | -0.31% |
台湾 #
TAIEX retraced 0.8% to 34,713 after surging on the ceasefire euphoria yesterday. Semiconductor names gave back gains as the oil rebound raised input cost concerns, while geopolitical uncertainty weighed on export-oriented tech. The index held above the intraday low of 34,617, suggesting dip-buyers emerged near the 34,600 support level. TWD strengthened 0.35% against USD to 31.78, partially offsetting equity weakness for foreign holders.
台湾加权指数回落 0.8% 至 34,713 点, 昨日停火行情的涨幅部分回吐。半导体板块因油价反弹带来的成本隐忧而回调, 地缘不确定性也压制了出口导向的科技股。指数守住盘中低点 34,617, 显示 34,600 附近有逢低承接资金。台币兑美元走强 0.35% 至 31.78, 部分对冲了外资的权益损失。
韩国 #
KOSPI was the worst performer in the region, sliding 1.56% to 5,780.74 — giving back roughly a fifth of yesterday’s historic 7% surge. The reversal was driven by profit-taking in shipbuilding and energy names that had rallied aggressively on the ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz toll demand from Iran, if implemented, would disproportionately impact Korean refiners and tanker operators reliant on Gulf crude flows. The KRW nonetheless strengthened 1.24% against USD to 1,480.48, an unusual divergence that suggests currency markets still pricing in net positive from ceasefire vs. equity markets front-running a potential collapse.
KOSPI 领跌亚太, 下滑 1.56% 至 5,780.74, 回吐了昨日历史性 7% 涨幅的约五分之一。造船和能源股昨日因停火大幅拉升后遭遇获利了结。伊朗提出的霍尔木兹海峡通行费, 若落地将对依赖海湾原油供应的韩国炼厂和油轮运营商形成不对称冲击。值得注意的是, 韩元兑美元仍大幅走强 1.24% 至 1,480.48, 汇率与股市的背离暗示外汇市场仍在计价停火的净正面效应, 而权益市场已在抢跑停火崩溃的风险。
日本 #
Nikkei 225 shed 0.76% to 55,879.53, a measured pullback relative to the 5.39% ramp the prior session. Exporter names saw modest selling as USD/JPY held flat at 158.66, removing the currency tailwind that had supported the rally. Energy importers (utilities, airlines) were caught in a crossfire — yesterday’s oil crash was bullish, today’s rebound less so. The 55,800 level held as intraday support (low: 55,802.54), aligning with the pre-ceasefire breakout zone. Breadth was mildly negative but orderly, with no signs of panic de-grossing.
日经 225 回调 0.76% 至 55,879.53, 相对于前一交易日 5.39% 的飙升属于温和回撤。美元兑日元持平于 158.66, 汇率顺风消退导致出口股小幅承压。能源进口商 (公用事业, 航空) 处于两难: 昨日油价暴跌利好, 今日反弹则利空。55,800 构成盘中支撑 (低点 55,802.54), 与停火突破前的区间吻合。市场广度略偏空但有序, 未见恐慌性去杠杆。
香港 #
HSI dipped a modest 0.35% to 25,801.87, outperforming the region on relative haven demand and southbound support. Intraday range was tight at 25,653–25,852, reflecting a market in wait-and-see mode rather than active de-risking. Southbound capital via Stock Connect remained a net buyer at approximately RMB 37.4 billion combined (Shanghai channel: 29.76B, Shenzhen channel: 7.64B), indicating mainland funds continued to accumulate HK equities on dips. The relatively sanguine price action suggests the market views the ceasefire disruption as noise rather than a fundamental shift.
恒生指数仅微跌 0.35% 至 25,801.87, 跑赢亚太, 受益于相对避险需求和南向资金支撑。盘中波幅较窄 (25,653–25,852), 市场更多处于观望而非主动避险状态。南向资金保持净买入, 港股通 (沪) 净买入约 29.76 亿元, 港股通 (深) 净买入约 7.64 亿元, 合计约 37.4 亿元, 显示内地资金继续逢低吸纳港股。相对平稳的走势表明市场将停火波折视为噪音而非基本面转向。
中国 #
A-shares retreated from yesterday’s ceasefire-driven 3.49% CSI 300 surge, with the benchmark shedding 0.55% to 4,566.22. Market breadth was notably poor: Shanghai recorded only 319 advancers vs. 1,204 decliners, and Shenzhen showed 343 up vs. 1,368 down — a classic narrow-market pullback where index heavyweights mask underlying weakness. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.73% to 3,965.70, while the SZSE Component held relatively better at -0.31%. Northbound flows via Stock Connect showed zero net buying on both the Shanghai and Shenzhen channels, suggesting foreign funds shifted to the sidelines pending clarity on the ceasefire’s viability.
A 股回吐了昨日停火行情中沪深 300 飙升 3.49% 的部分涨幅, 基准指数下跌 0.55% 至 4,566.22。市场广度显著恶化: 沪市仅 319 只上涨 vs 1,204 只下跌, 深市 343 只上涨 vs 1,368 只下跌, 呈现典型的"指数撑面子, 个股跌里子"格局。上证综指跌 0.73% 至 3,965.70, 深证成指相对抗跌仅跌 0.31%。北向资金 (沪股通/深股通) 净买入均为零, 外资转为观望, 等待停火前景明朗化。
资金流向 #
北向资金 #
| 通道 | 净买入 (亿元) | 市场涨跌比 |
|---|---|---|
| 沪股通 | 0.00 | 319 涨 / 18 平 / 1,204 跌 |
| 深股通 | 0.00 | 343 涨 / 18 平 / 1,368 跌 |
北向资金单日零净买入, 与昨日停火行情中的积极涌入形成鲜明对比。外资在地缘风险重新定价过程中选择按兵不动。
南向资金 #
| 通道 | 净买入 (亿元) |
|---|---|
| 港股通 (沪) | 29.76 |
| 港股通 (深) | 7.64 |
| 合计 | 37.40 |
南向资金维持积极流入, 内地资金对港股的结构性配置趋势未因停火波折而改变。
汇率与宏观 #
| 品种 | 价格 | 涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|
| 美元/日元 | 158.66 | -0.04% |
| 美元/人民币 | 6.83 | -0.34% |
| 美元/韩元 | 1,480.48 | -1.24% |
| 美元/台币 | 31.78 | -0.35% |
| 黄金 | $4,743.00 | -0.14% |
| WTI原油 | $97.45 | +3.22% |
| 美元指数 | 99.00 | — |
| 美国10年期收益率 | 4.29% | -1.20% |
油价反弹是今日宏观交易的核心变量。WTI 从昨日暴跌 15% 后反弹 3.2%, 反映市场对停火可持续性的再定价。美元走弱 (DXY 99.0), 亚洲货币普遍升值, 韩元升幅最大 (+1.24%)。美债收益率小幅回落至 4.29%, 避险需求温和。黄金在 $4,743 附近窄幅波动, 未出现明显避险买盘, 暗示市场尚未进入全面风险规避模式。
地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #
1. 美伊冲突 / 霍尔木兹海峡 (核心驱动) #
最新态势:
The fragile US-Iran ceasefire announced April 8 is showing cracks less than 24 hours in. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stated three ceasefire clauses have been contravened: (1) continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon/Hezbollah, which Iran considers part of the deal; (2) US drone incursion into Iranian airspace; (3) denial of Iran’s enrichment rights. The IRGC claimed Strait of Hormuz shipping had stopped again following what it called an Israeli ceasefire violation — the White House denied this. Additionally, the Financial Times reported Iran plans to demand tolls from ships transiting the strait, a potential long-term structural shift in global shipping costs.
4/8 宣布的美伊停火协议在不到 24 小时内已现裂痕。伊朗国会议长 Ghalibaf 指出美方违反三项条款: (1) 以色列继续对黎巴嫩/真主党发动军事行动, 伊朗将其视为停火协议一部分; (2) 美国无人机侵入伊朗领空; (3) 否认伊朗的铀浓缩权利。IRGC 声称以色列违反停火后, 霍尔木兹海峡航运再次中断 (白宫否认)。此外, 《金融时报》报道伊朗计划对过境船只征收通行费, 这可能是全球航运成本的长期结构性变化。
受影响板块:
| 板块 | 影响方向 | 代表标的 | 逻辑 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 油气开采 | 📈 | 中国海油(0883.HK), S-Oil(010950.KS) | 油价反弹直接利好 |
| 油轮/航运 | 📈📉 | 长荣海运(2603.TW), 韩进海运 | 短期运费飙升, 但航线风险加大 |
| 航空 | 📉 | 国泰航空(0293.HK), ANA(9202.T) | 燃油成本反弹 |
| 石化/炼油 | 📉 | SK Innovation(096770.KS), 恒力石化 | 原料成本上升, 裂解价差收窄 |
| 国防军工 | 📈 | 三菱重工(7011.T), 韩华航空航天(012450.KS) | 区域安全支出预期上升 |
| 黄金 | 📈 | 紫金矿业(2899.HK), Zijin Mining | 避险溢价, 虽今日暂未启动 |
关键时间节点: 停火两周窗口截止日 (约4月22日)。若期间伊朗正式重启海峡封锁或美方恢复军事打击, 油价可能重返 $110+, 亚太市场面临二次冲击。
2. 俄乌战争 #
制裁格局未见重大变化。欧洲能源供应已大幅去俄化, 对亚太市场直接冲击有限。关注点在于若美伊冲突升级导致全球能源供应双重紧缩, 欧洲 LNG 价格可能联动上行, 间接推高亚洲能源进口成本。
3. 全球关税/贸易冲突 #
近期无新增重大关税措施, 但地缘冲突期间各国倾向于暂缓贸易摩擦。若停火持续, 市场焦点可能重新回到美中贸易议题。
专家研判:
相对受益方向:
- 油气上游 (中国海油, CNOOC, PetroChina)
- 国防军工 (三菱重工, 韩华, 中航沈飞)
- 航运 (短期运费溢价)
- 黄金/贵金属 (若停火彻底破裂)
- 替代能源 (LNG, 核电, 停火不确定性推升能源安全议题)
需要回避方向:
- 航空 (燃油成本敞口大, 中东航线受阻)
- 韩国炼化 (SK Innovation, GS Caltex, 对海湾原油依赖度高)
- 高 beta 科技 (停火交易反转时首当其冲)
情景分析 (未来两周):
| 情景 | 概率 | 油价 | 亚太影响 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 停火勉强维持, 海峡通行恢复 | 40% | $88-95 | 亚太温和反弹, 昨日涨幅大部分守住 |
| 停火名存实亡, 局部冲突持续 | 45% | $95-110 | 窄幅震荡, 板块分化加剧 |
| 停火彻底破裂, 海峡再次封锁 | 15% | $115-130 | 亚太普跌 3-5%, 韩国/日本首当其冲 |
关键主题 #
- 停火脆弱性: 伊朗指控三项违约, 市场从 “ceasefire trade” 转向 “ceasefire doubt trade”, 昨日涨幅部分回吐
- 油价反弹: WTI +3.22% 至 $97.45, 停火不确定性重新注入原油风险溢价
- 汇率与股市背离: 韩元大幅走强 1.24% 但 KOSPI 领跌, 暗示外汇与权益市场对停火前景的定价存在分歧
- A 股广度恶化: 沪市涨跌比 1:3.8, 北向资金归零, 停火红利未能向中小盘扩散
- 南向资金坚定: 港股通净买入 37.4 亿元, 内地资金对港股的配置性买入不受短期地缘波动影响
本报告数据来源于公开市场信息, 分析内容为编辑团队观点, 不构成投资建议。