亚洲午盘 — 2026-04-01
市场概览 #
亚太市场在连跌四日后迎来猛烈反弹，KOSPI 单日暴涨逾 7% 领跑全球。两大催化剂驱动了今日的risk-on行情: 其一，特朗普暗示美伊冲突可能在"两到三周内"结束，霍尔木兹海峡危机的边际缓和令油价小幅回落、风险偏好急剧修复；其二，韩国 3 月出口同比飙升 48.3%，工厂 PMI 创四年新高，半导体需求强劲，直接点燃了首尔市场的做多热情。日经涨超 4.5%，台湾加权涨 4.4%，港股和 A 股涨幅相对温和但同样收红。
指数表现 #
| 指数 | 收盘/最新 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 台湾加权 (TAIEX) | 33,118.89 | +1,395.90 | +4.40% |
| 韩国综合 (KOSPI) | 5,414.26 | +361.80 | +7.16% |
| 日经225 | 53,390.82 | +2,327.10 | +4.56% |
| 恒生指数 (HSI) | 25,276.65 | +488.51 | +1.97% |
| 沪深300 | 4,513.65 | +63.60 | +1.43% |
| 上证综指 | 3,944.80 | +52.94 | +1.36% |
| 深证成指 | 13,640.05 | +161.99 | +1.20% |
台湾 #
TAIEX surged 4.4% to 33,118.89, recovering sharply from last week’s sell-off. Semiconductor names led the charge as the broader risk-on tone pulled the index from its session low of 31,892 to a high of 33,182. The EWT ETF had already rallied 2.84% in the prior US session, front-running today’s bounce. TWD strengthened 0.32% against the dollar as foreign funds rotated back into EM Asia. The breadth was overwhelmingly positive, suggesting this was not a narrow tech-driven move but a broad-based capitulation of shorts.
台湾加权指数大涨 4.4% 至 33,118.89 点，从上周的抛售中强劲反弹。半导体板块领涨，大盘从盘中低点 31,892 一路拉升至 33,182 的日内高点。追踪台湾市场的 EWT ETF 在前一交易日的美股已先行上涨 2.84%，提前反映了今日的反弹预期。新台币兑美元走强 0.32%，显示外资重新回流新兴亚洲。市场广度压倒性正面，表明这不是窄幅的科技股驱动行情，而是空头的全面回补。
韩国 #
KOSPI exploded 7.16% higher to 5,414.26, delivering one of its strongest single-day gains in years. The catalyst was crystal clear: March exports surged 48.3% YoY, obliterating expectations and confirming that the global semiconductor supercycle remains intact. Factory PMI expanded at the strongest pace in over four years. Samsung Electronics rallied ~8% and SK Hynix surged ~7.8%, both benefiting from the data print. The KRW firmed 0.27% to 1,511.98 per USD. The EWY Korea ETF had already jumped 5.65% in the prior US session — a remarkable overnight signal. With the intraday range spanning from 5,272 to 5,418, the buying was relentless and MOC flows likely added fuel. This move resets the technical picture: KOSPI has reclaimed the 5,400 level and the momentum reversal could attract systematic trend-followers in coming sessions.
韩国综合指数暴涨 7.16% 至 5,414.26 点，创下近年来最大单日涨幅之一。催化剂清晰明了: 3 月出口同比飙升 48.3%，远超预期，确认全球半导体超级周期仍然完好。工厂 PMI 以四年多来最强劲的速度扩张。三星电子大涨约 8%，SK 海力士飙升约 7.8%，均受数据提振。韩元兑美元走强 0.27% 至 1,511.98。EWY 韩国 ETF 在前一美股交易日已跳涨 5.65%，隔夜信号极为强烈。盘中波动区间从 5,272 到 5,418，买盘源源不断，尾盘的 MOC(收市竞价)资金流可能进一步推高了收盘价。这一行情重置了技术面格局: KOSPI 已重新站上 5,400 关口，动量反转可能在未来几个交易日吸引系统性趋势跟踪资金。
日本 #
Nikkei 225 jumped 4.56% to 53,390.82, closing at the session high — a bullish sign. The Q1 BOJ Tankan survey provided a supportive backdrop: large manufacturer sentiment printed at +17 (vs +16 prior, beat consensus), the highest since December 2021. Large non-manufacturer sentiment held steady at +36, near its strongest since 1991. That said, the forward outlook for manufacturers dipped to +14, reflecting Hormuz-related supply chain anxiety. Oil-dependent sectors saw sentiment deteriorate sharply. The data slightly raises the probability of a BOJ rate hike at the April meeting. Financials led the rally. JPY weakened modestly to 158.90 vs USD (-0.59%), a sweet spot for exporters. The EWJ Japan ETF had risen 3.58% in the prior US session.
日经 225 指数跳涨 4.56% 至 53,390.82 点，收于日内最高点，这是一个看涨信号。Q1 日本央行短观调查提供了支撑: 大型制造业信心指数录得 +17(前值 +16，超出共识预期)，为 2021 年 12 月以来最高。大型非制造业信心指数持平于 +36，接近 1991 年以来最强水平。但制造业前瞻展望降至 +14，反映了霍尔木兹海峡相关的供应链焦虑。石油依赖型行业信心急剧恶化。该数据小幅提高了日本央行 4 月加息的概率。金融板块领涨。日元兑美元小幅走弱至 158.90(-0.59%)，对出口商而言是个舒适区间。EWJ 日本 ETF 在前一美股交易日上涨 3.58%。
香港 #
HSI gained 1.97% to 25,276.65, a solid but relatively muted move compared to the explosive rallies in Seoul and Tokyo. Basic materials and financials led the advance. Intraday range was tight (25,203–25,394), suggesting measured buying rather than a frenzied short-squeeze. The EWH Hong Kong ETF rose 3.17% in the prior US session, and FXI (China large-cap) gained 2.57%, both outperforming the local index return today. Southbound flows via Stock Connect showed net selling of approximately HK$35.8 billion — a cautious signal, as mainland funds appeared to take profits on the rally rather than chase.
恒生指数上涨 1.97% 至 25,276.65 点，表现稳健但相比首尔和东京的爆发式上涨显得温和。基础材料和金融板块领涨。盘中波动区间较窄(25,203-25,394)，显示买盘节奏有序，并非恐慌性空头回补。EWH 香港 ETF 在前一美股交易日上涨 3.17%，FXI(中国大盘 ETF)涨 2.57%，两者均跑赢了今日本地指数表现。南向资金通过互联互通录得约 35.8 亿港元净卖出，信号偏谨慎，显示内地资金在反弹中倾向于获利了结而非追涨。
中国 #
CSI 300 rose 1.43% to 4,513.65, and the Shanghai Composite gained 1.36% to 3,944.80. The SZSE Component added 1.20%. Breadth was strongly positive: 1,237 stocks advanced vs 258 declined on the Shanghai board; 1,417 vs 289 on the Shenzhen board. Sector flows showed pharmaceutical names attracting the most capital — chemical preparations (+4.78B CNY), chemical pharma (+4.26B), and biopharma (+3.3B) all saw strong inflows. Electronics (+1.91B) and computer (+1.4B) also drew buying interest. Outflows concentrated in utilities: inverters (-1.31B), power (-1.01B), and public utilities (-0.72B). Northbound flow data was unavailable at midday. The relatively restrained A-share performance compared to Northeast Asian peers suggests China is trading more on domestic fundamentals than the Iran-driven global risk-on.
沪深 300 上涨 1.43% 至 4,513.65 点，上证综指涨 1.36% 至 3,944.80 点，深证成指涨 1.20%。市场广度显著正面: 沪市上涨 1,237 只 vs 下跌 258 只，深市上涨 1,417 只 vs 下跌 289 只。板块资金流显示医药板块吸引最多资金: 化学制剂(+4.78 亿)、化学制药(+4.26 亿)、医药生物(+3.3 亿)均获强劲流入。电子(+1.91 亿)和计算机(+1.4 亿)也获得买盘关注。流出集中在公用事业: 逆变器(-1.31 亿)、电力(-1.01 亿)、公用事业(-0.72 亿)。北向资金午间数据暂缺。A 股涨幅相对东北亚同行偏克制，表明中国市场更多受国内基本面驱动，而非伊朗局势引发的全球风险偏好修复。
资金流向 #
北向资金 #
午间数据暂缺(沪股通/深股通净买入均为 0)，需等待收盘后更新。上涨个股比例: 沪市 80%+、深市 82%+，显示外资大概率净流入。
南向资金 #
| 通道 | 净买入 | 成交额 |
|---|---|---|
| 港股通(沪) | -34.08 亿 HKD | 420 亿 HKD |
| 港股通(深) | -1.69 亿 HKD | 420 亿 HKD |
| 合计 | -35.76 亿 HKD | — |
南向资金合计净卖出约 35.76 亿港元，在恒指上涨近 2% 的背景下选择获利了结，态度偏谨慎。
A股板块资金流 #
| 板块 | 净流入(亿) | 方向 |
|---|---|---|
| 化学制剂 | +4.78 | 流入 |
| 化学制药 | +4.26 | 流入 |
| 医药生物 | +3.30 | 流入 |
| 电子 | +1.91 | 流入 |
| 计算机 | +1.40 | 流入 |
| 电力设备 | +1.20 | 流入 |
| 国防军工 | +0.05 | 流出 |
| 公用事业 | -0.72 | 流出 |
| 电力 | -1.01 | 流出 |
| 逆变器 | -1.31 | 流出 |
汇率与宏观 #
| 品种 | 价格 | 涨跌幅 |
|---|---|---|
| 美元/日元 | 158.90 | -0.59% |
| 美元/人民币 | 6.8800 | -0.39% |
| 美元/韩元 | 1,511.98 | -0.27% |
| 美元/台币 | 31.94 | -0.32% |
| 黄金 | $4,696.30 | +1.05% |
| WTI原油 | $102.96 | +1.56% |
| 美元指数 | 99.84 | -0.12% |
| 美国10Y | 4.31% | -0.71% |
美元全线走弱，亚洲货币普遍升值，反映风险偏好回暖。黄金在 $4,696 维持高位，盘中一度触及 $4,751.90，避险需求并未因股市反弹而消退。WTI 原油报 $102.96，涨 1.56%，虽在特朗普缓和言论后从近期高点回落，但霍尔木兹海峡的实质性封锁仍支撑油价在三位数运行。美国 10 年期国债收益率降至 4.31%，反映市场仍在避险资产中保持一定配置。
地缘冲突追踪与板块影响 #
1. 伊朗战争 / 霍尔木兹海峡危机 #
最新态势:
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to Western commercial traffic since March 2, cutting approximately 17.8 million barrels per day of transit capacity — the IEA has called it the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” Iran is operating a selective “toll booth” system, allowing Chinese and Russian vessels through while collecting fees in yuan. Trump has given Iran an April 6 deadline to reopen the Strait, threatening to destroy Iran’s oil wells and Kharg Island if they refuse. However, Trump also stated the conflict could be resolved in “two to three weeks,” which triggered today’s risk-on rally. Back-channel negotiations via Pakistani mediators continue despite Iran’s public rejection of direct talks.
霍尔木兹海峡自 3 月 2 日起对西方商业航运实质性关闭，切断了约每日 1,780 万桶的运输能力，IEA 称之为"全球石油市场历史上最大的供应中断"。伊朗实行选择性"收费站"制度，允许中俄船只通行并以人民币收费。特朗普给伊朗设定了 4 月 6 日最后期限，要求重新开放海峡，否则将摧毁伊朗油井和哈尔克岛。但特朗普同时表示冲突可能在"两到三周内"解决，这一表态触发了今日的风险偏好反弹。巴基斯坦斡旋的秘密谈判渠道仍在运作，尽管伊朗公开拒绝直接对话。
| 板块 | 影响方向 | 代表标的 | 逻辑 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 石油开采 | 📈 受益 | PetroChina(601857), CNOOC(0883.HK) | 高油价直接利好产量端 |
| 航运/油轮 | 📈 受益 | COSCO Shipping(601919) | 运价飙升，替代航线需求 |
| 国防军工 | 📈 受益 | 中航沈飞(600760) | 地区紧张局势推升军费预期 |
| 新能源/光伏 | 📈 间接受益 | 隆基绿能(601012) | 化石能源替代逻辑强化 |
| 航空公司 | 📉 承压 | 南方航空(600029), CX(0293.HK) | 燃油成本飙升，部分航线取消 |
| 化工/塑料 | 📉 承压 | 万华化学(600309) | 原材料成本上升挤压利润 |
| 消费/旅游 | 📉 承压 | 携程(9961.HK) | 油价传导至出行成本 |
关键时间节点: 4 月 6 日 — 特朗普对伊朗最后期限到期，是近期最大的单一风险事件。
2. 全球关税 / 贸易冲突 #
最新态势:
Tomorrow (April 2) marks the one-year anniversary of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. The Supreme Court struck them down in February 2026 (Learning Resources v. Trump), ruling IEEPA emergency powers were misused, triggering a $170 billion refund process. However, the tariff landscape remains complex: ASEAN faces ~19% effective rates, Japan/Korea ~15%, China ~47% (managed tier). The overall US effective tariff rate stands at 13.7%. New Section 301 investigations targeting 16 countries have public comment deadlines on April 15, and Section 232 auto parts inclusion windows opened today (April 1).
明天(4 月 2 日)是特朗普"解放日"关税一周年。最高法院已于 2026 年 2 月裁定相关关税违法(Learning Resources v. Trump 案)，认定 IEEPA 紧急权力被滥用，触发 1,700 亿美元退税流程。但关税格局仍然复杂: 东盟面临约 19% 有效税率，日韩约 15%，中国约 47%(管理层级)。美国整体有效关税率为 13.7%。针对 16 个国家的新 301 条款调查公众意见截止日为 4 月 15 日，232 条款汽车零部件纳入窗口今日(4 月 1 日)开启。
| 板块 | 影响方向 | 代表标的 | 逻辑 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 半导体设备 | 📈📉 分化 | ASML, Tokyo Electron(8035) | 退税利好 vs 新调查不确定性 |
| 汽车零部件 | 📉 承压 | Toyota(7203), Hyundai(005380) | 232 条款扩围风险 |
| 出口制造 | 📈 短期利好 | 韩国出口商 | 退税+出口数据超预期 |
| 中国科技 | 📉 长期压力 | KWEB 成分股 | 47% 关税率持续 |
关键时间节点: 4 月 2 日"解放日"周年 / 4 月 15 日 Section 301 公众意见截止
3. 俄乌战争 #
持续中但本周未出现重大升级。欧洲军费增加趋势不变，能源影响已被市场消化。关注乌克兰春季攻势进展。
专家研判 #
相对受益方向:
- 油气上游 (PetroChina, CNOOC) — 油价三位数运行直接利好
- 半导体 (Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC) — 出口数据确认需求周期
- 防务/国防 (各国防务股) — 地缘紧张推升全球军费
- 黄金/贵金属 (山东黄金, 紫金矿业) — $4,700 黄金避险+通胀对冲
- 航运 (油轮/干散货) — 替代航线拉长运距
需要回避方向:
- 航空公司 — 燃油成本失控，部分航线被迫取消
- 化工下游 — 原材料涨价挤压利润
- 高关税敞口出口商 — 301 调查扩围风险
- 纯公用事业 — 今日资金明显流出，防御板块被抛弃
情景分析 (围绕 4 月 6 日最后期限):
| 情景 | 概率 | 市场影响 |
|---|---|---|
| 达成临时协议，海峡部分开放 | 30% | 油价回落至 $85-90，全球股市再涨 3-5%，航空/化工反弹 |
| 期限延长，谈判继续 | 45% | 油价维持 $95-105 区间震荡，市场观望，波动率居高不下 |
| 军事升级，海峡全面封锁 | 25% | 油价冲击 $130-150，全球股市暴跌 5-10%，VIX 冲上 40+ |
关键主题 #
- 韩国出口爆发: 3 月出口 +48.3% YoY，PMI 创四年新高，半导体超级周期确认
- 霍尔木兹博弈: 4 月 6 日最后期限逼近，特朗普"两到三周"表态触发 risk-on
- BOJ 短观超预期: 制造业信心创 2021 年底新高，4 月加息概率上升
- 关税周年: 最高法院裁定违法，1,700 亿退税进行中，但新 301 调查启动
- 医药资金异动: A 股医药板块单日净流入超 12 亿，化学制剂/制药领涨
本报告数据来源于公开市场信息，分析内容为编辑团队观点，不构成投资建议。